i'm ali velshi. welcome to "your money." americans are split on whether they would vote for mitt romney over president obama if romney is the republican nominee. but they are solidly behind the gop front runner when it comes to the crucial issue of who can get the economy moving. a cnn opinion research corporation poll finds just 40% say that president obama can get this economy moving, while more than half of those polls believed that mitt romney has what it takes. now, this polling data leads me to the most important economic issue of all, and that is jobs. more than 100,000 jobs have been added in each of the last six months. it is not enough. it is not enough, but it is steady improvement. nothing means more to how americans feel about the economy than whether they have a job or know someone who just got a job or conversely, someone who lost a job. let's head to south carolina and bring in cnn contributor will cane, a good friend of our show. will, as a conservative, are you sensing some worry among republicans that the stronger job creation will weaken the advantage that mitt romney could have over president obama on the issue of being better able to improve the economy? >> well, i would say that the numbers are moving in obama's direction. it's better than if they were moving the other way and if unemployment was increasing. i don't want to get too quasiintellectual but i would be careful about how much they s i indicate how much the economy is moving. there was a metaphor of a punch of prisoners trapped in a cave and staring at a blank wall and they begin to think the shadows reflect reality. i'm not sure unemployment and jobs accurately reflects the direction of the economy. we still have a euro debt crisis that's leaving economies shaking in their boots. we still have massive levels of debt in the united states. we're working off that debt. we still have 30%, 30% of americans are underwater on their home mortgage and 50% are effectively underwater. >> well, i give you this. that continues to be a problem, but let me go back to jobs for a second. you and i have discussed, i am not a fan of associating job losses with a particular president just because it coincides with their term in office but let's say we do that because lots of people do. president obama, under his watch, 4.6 million jobs were lost on his watch. two-thirds of those jobs are back already and at this pace of job creation, all of those jobs will be back probably before election day. now, who knows which way that's going to go, but that's going to be a tough argument. i can see those ads with obama versus romney. that is going to be tough, regardless of whether you think it's a real reflection of the economy or not. >> well, you're absolutely right. that's going to be a great essentially bumper sticker. it's going to be a great campaign point. here's why i describe those other pressures on the economy is because in the end how voters feel about the economy will be impacted by so much more. it will be impacted by those factors i talked about, housing, debt and europe, leaving voters with a sense of uncertainty, a sense of fear, a sense of feeling poor. all of that will impact how they feel about the economy. >> sure. >> i think much more than a number that reflects job losses and unemployment. >> i'm with you there. >> still 92% of americans have jobs. >> i'm with you there. how you feel about it may have more to do than reality. the same thing with recessions. alexis glick, the ceo of the gen youth foundation, she's also worked on wall street and reported on it for a long time. she knows business, she knows politics and this is really going to come down to money and politics, alexis. >> it's absolutely true. i see what will is saying. the bottom line is the trend is obama's friend right now, so we're starting to see job creation move in the right direction. there is a ton of cash built up in corporate america right now sitting on the sidelines, so there are some positive signs and real interest rates are as low as they have been in decades. so you do have some favorable things. but look, most of middle class america right now feels that they're still under siege. many of them feel that the recession did not end, and that is a big problem. so confidence is key to this election. yes, obama can say i recreated all the jobs that have been lost, but also under his watch, deficits have never been larger. the u.s. debt rating was downgraded for the first time in history. those are also the points that the republican side of the equation are going to heavily pound this administration on. >> okay. so we are agreed on the fact that ultimately, and i think the same thing decided the midterm elections and the same thing decided the 2008 presidential elections, how people feel, particularly on the issue that is most important to them, the economy, will determine how they vote. i want to bring in harvard professor ken rogoff, the former chief economist at the international monetary fund. ken, the issue here, we're agreed how people feel influences them. what may be more important to improving our economy is what we actually do. i would love to hear presidential candidates talking about specific things that would create long-term growth. >> job creation. >> not just tax cuts, but real stuff. ken, you often talk about infrastructure. how do you make that into something that makes sense for an election? >> i mean i'd love to see real ideas debated in this election because i worry about us entering this state of lethargy. we are improving. i think the economy is going to hurt president obama, but if it continues to trend upwards, it won't hurt as much. but i mean this isn't just about this year but much longer term. how are we really going to improve our education system and make it more competitive. if we're going to build infrastructure not just that it's a handout but we really build infrastructure. how are we going to delever this housing, all this housing debt, some of these subprime mortgages. >> alexis and i were talking about this before the show started. we are not hearing those details from anybody who's running. am i right, ken? >> no, absolutely. i said that's what i'd love to hear. i think in some sense it's the voter doesn't want to hear the reality. the voter doesn't want to let us go in any direction. anyone who sticks their neck out, it gets cut off. >> but if you're a nominee right now, to me that is the biggest issue. who has put down a serious economic plan. >> right. >> we are adult enough to know there's a reality facing us, and it's been staring down our door for years now. tell us the truth. lay out the plan. i think they're afraid to lay out the plan. >> i will say the one candidate who put down what looked like a pretty good plan is out of the race, jon huntsman. stay with us, alexis, ken and will. optimists beware because that crisis in europe continues to threaten whatever is going on here in the united states and around the world. could it end up being a big factor in the u.s. presidential election as well? how and why, i'll tell you about it next on "your money." 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will it get to the point that it could actually kill this recovery that we might be in right now at a critical time for an incumbent president? could it create an opportunity for his opponent? >> europe is a mess. make no doubt about it. but i'd say it's maybe four to one that it won't be decisive, that they'll muddle through for another year with maybe their central bank printing money. that's not a long-term exit strategy, but it might make it through 2012. >> will, of all the economic issues, you say, you know, you might be right on this, you say europe is going to end up having the greatest affect on the outcome of the presidential election, but that very few people here will know why. what are you talking about? >> right, right. look, man, this euro thing is no bueno. the world bank said developed countries' economies should prepare for the worst. >> yeah. >> that's not good. germany is officially in a recession. it's not just europe, by the way. chinese demand is down. all these little star economies like brazil and germany that live on exports, how is that going to work when the chinese economy slows down. i can't time this, ali. i can't tell you that this will happen before an election. the market right now says i'm wrong, by the way. but what i'm telling you is if this bleeds over, and it's not unlikely that it does, if it drags down u.s. demand, that will have an impact on how these consumers -- forget voters, how consumers feel and eventually voters feel and they'll punish the man in office, either before or after. >> alexis, europe is everybody's biggest or second biggest trading partner. europe's leaders have made it clear they don't want a lesson in handling their debt problems from the u.s. the u.s. is very keen to give them some guidance. tim geithner has been there several times on what to do. but if europe's crisis threatens the improving economy that president obama needs to run on, the one he's got right now, what does he do? what does president obama and what does treasury secretary geithner, what do americans do to say please, please get your house in order. >> i've got to tell you, timothy geithner is the key. he is the answer to the problem. he has been the one most aggressively addressing the problem overseas. he's made the most trips over there. you think that coordinated effort a couple of months ago out of central banks didn't start here in the united states? he's got experience with problems in the past in a global economy, okay. he's dealt with sovereign nations failing on their debt. number one, geithner is the key. is there much that obama can do? no. let me tell you something, geithner warned the imf and warned them in europe, $50 billion isn't enough. uf got to have a $500 billion coffer. they didn't listen. now we're talking about a trillion dollar coffer. t.a.r.p. did some terrific things in this country. it prevented a collapse. if they don't pay attention to what happened here in the united states, it's their fault. and frankly, we will see some degree of an impact because they're going to be in a deep recession for years to come. we will see it in our trade. >> ken, you were the chief economist for the international monetary fund. you look at what's unfolding right now. is the international monetary fund, is the european central bank doing enough to head off a catastrophe in europe? >> not forever. definitely not forever. i completely agree with will on this. right now really the main thing they're doing is printing money. that works for a while, but eventually it will lead to inflation if they don't do something more. but it is very hard to call the timing. europe is going to be in recession. it's not good for us, but we're doing a little better, it will drag us more slower for a long time, but the big question, will they have a layman type event. when greece defaults, as i think it will this year, will it be a lehman time event. i think it will not be as immediately catastrophic to be decisive in the november 2012 election, although it is certainly a key wild card. >> that's a very good point to end on, that europe has been in what feels like a recession for some time. that going on may not be the end of the world. but if there's a run on a bank, if there's a credit crisis, we know that we are all attached by that string, and that will affect somebody trying to get a loan for a car right here in the united states. thanks to all of you. what a great, smart discussion. will cain, alexis glick, the ceo of gen youth foundation, it's a very interesting organization. of course ken rogoff, one of the smartest men on the planet. last week we focused on capitalism being on trial and we found out just what needs to be done to fix america's economic system. with more than 15 million americans unable to find work, we'll break down exactly what employers are looking for to fill the millions of job openings and we'll answer the question, is there a mismatch in this country between skills and jobs. the big fix is next. you know when i grow up, i'm going to own my own restaurant. i want to be a volunteer firefighter. when i grow up, i want to write a novel. i want to go on a road trip. when i grow up, i'm going to go there. i want to fix up old houses. 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[ female announcer ] discover what's next in your life. get this free travel bag when you join at aarp.org/jointoday. let's talk about jobs. right now in the united states there are 3.2 million job openings, but many employers, including those on president obama's job council, continue to tell the president they simply cannot find workers who are qualified to fill some of those positions. >> every company i know, my own included, we're desperately trying to hire more people, but it has to be people who have the technical skills to meet the jobs we need, and it gets harder and harder. >> it has to be people who have the technical skills to fill the jobs we need. jonas is manpower group's president of the americas. manpower surveyed thousands of companies around the world and found that more than half of u.s. employers are having trouble finding people to fill open positions. let's talk about this. specifically, you found that the hardest jobs to fill last year were skilled trades, sales representatives, engineers, drivers and accounting staff. you have said many of these companies have cited a lack of skills as a reason for the talent shortage. now, what skills are individuals who are looking for jobs in america lacking that would allow them to fill some of those positions? >> the skills that employers are looking for are the kinds of skills that require a level of experience, training and also adoption to new technology. when we talk about manufacturing skills, for instance, the specific positions that employers in manufacturing are finding difficult to find are positions such as machinists, cnc operators, mechanics, specialized welders, so quite specific positions. they're impacted by two things, technology has improved. the kind of skills that used to be applied to those skills have moved on, so you have to have the new skills required, and then you also have an aging workforce where people with those experiences are retiring from the workforce. >> right. >> add to that -- >> you've named a number of professions like that, engineering, welding, accounting, where we constantly talk to people from those fields who say that we can hire pretty much everybody that schools graduate in those areas. >> that's exactly right. and what's driving that shortage as well at the same time, it should be said that employers are very picky when it comes to choosing the skills. they want the right skills at the right time at the right cost, so there's also a supply and demand issue where employers are not really responding to a surge in demand, they are being very choosy, when to hire. >> anthony, there are 3.2 million job openings in the country right now. fareed zakaria on the show last week said there's generally millions of jobs that just sort of churn in the economy. ten years ago there were five million jobs available. in december of 2007, right before the great recession took hold, there were more than four million job openings. you say the problem is systemic and the education system in this country needs to teach practical cal, technical skills that are more closely in line with the things that people will go on to do in their day-to-day job. so what does that mean? does that mean that people shouldn't be sending their kids for a liberal arts education and they should be going to trade schools? >> it means in general that the education system is in a race with technology change and economic change, and it's losing the race. we used to have an economy that required primarily what we think of as blue collar skills, and there has been a profound shift essentially since the '80s when it began to accelerate, towards white collar skills and technical skills, and american education institutions are having a very hard time keeping up. >> former "the new york times" columnist bob herbert is a senior fellow at demos. bob, this is an issue. we do need engineers and accountants who are trained in great american universities, but at the same time we need to be having people attending vocational schools and getting skills like we've discussed as welders. how do we deal with establishing who goes to what school for what and how we get everybody the right education for this market? >> well, i don't think we do it by pointing to the problems that employers are having, finding specific workers. this is a small segment of the overall employment problem. my question would be, you know, if there's a shortage of workers in a given field, then the free market says that you should offer those workers more money. so pay more and presumably you'd get more qualified applicants. >> let's take a quick break and we'll talk about what we do not for the mismatch, not for those people who are able to fill the jobs that are already open but what to do to see if there are more jobs that can be available. all of you stay with us, we'll be right back on "your money." my wife and i have three wonderful children and they make my life just perfect. we were having too much fun, we weren't thinking about a will at that time. we were in denial. that's right. [ laughter ] we like our freedoms, but at the same time we have responsibilities to the kids and ourselves. we're the vargos and we created our wills on legalzoom. finally. [ laughter ] [ shapiro ] we created legalzoom to help you take care of the ones you love. go to legalzoom.com today and complete your will in minutes. at legalzoom.com, we put the law on your side. metamucil uses super hard working psyllium fiber, which gels to remove unsexy waste and reduce cholesterol. taking psyllium fiber won't make you a model but you should feel a little more super. metamucil. down with cholesterol. have more fiber than other leading brands. they're the better way to enjoy your fiber. on the show a week ago we spoke about capitalism on trial. our panelists offered a number of specific areas that need to be addressed to fix america's economic system. mort zuckerman said we need to start training people to fill the jobs that are available today. >> there's a whole mismatch in terms of the number of people coming out looking for jobs and the qualifications t