x ed to 231231. >> this situation room with wolf blitzer welcome to week nitric six cnn are they dueling canaries in the coal mine? >> i, michael smerconish in philadelphia. this week came to different events that might forecast the outcome of the 2024 american election. first, the elections in europe that leaned right. and second, the arrest of eight foreign nationals believed seem to be affiliated with isis, who entered via the mexican border. i have amazing expertise on hand to discuss each kurt volker, former us ambassador to nato at richard clarke, former adviser to three us presidents. first to the eu elections last weekend, which saw right-wing populist parties score big wins driven in part by board what or politics and inflation? far-right parties won 134 of the european parliament's 720 seats forming a substantial block against mainstream parties, assembling coalitions that are needed to pass laws. the right gain significantly in the union's three biggest countries, france, germany, italy, in france, marine le pen's rn party won more than 31% of the vote, more than doubling president emmanuel macron coalition party, which had only 14.6% of the vote that prompted macron to dissolve the national assembly and call for a risky snap election in germany, the right quote alternative for germany party had its best ever showing. >> and in italy, the anti-immigrant and right-wing incumbent giorgia meloni's brothers of italy also won. >> many are now wondering if this is reminiscent of june in 2016 when the uk voted in favor of brexit, which ended up foreshadowing donald trump's victory that fall joining out is kurt volker, former us ambassador to nato. he also served as the special representative for ukraine negotiations. what do you think ambassador is this a canary in a coal mine? how predictive do you believe the eu elections are of the united states? >> well, as always with things, there are similarities and their differences there are frustrations in europe with immigration just like there are in the united states, frustrations about the economy just like there are in the united states. but the patterns you are a little bit different in the uk, they're going to have a general election july 4th, and it looks very likely that the pain and in germany and france to the country, as i just mentioned, the losses for the incumbent seem to be more frustration with the incumbents than about an ideological direction. >> i think yeah, we're having trouble with the ambassador. let's hope to get him back and move on to richard clarke if we can. okay. gang on radio. i often say that the election will be influenced by people we've never heard of events, we could never imagine. well, this week came news that ate too tajikistan nationals with potential ties to isis were arrested in los angeles, philadelphia, and new york on immigration charges the suspects crossed into america from our southern border. and michael morale, the former acting director of the cia and harvard professor graham allison. they just outlined for the journal foreign affairs. this piece titled the terrorism warning lights are blinking red. again, saying that officials are sounding the alarm for the potential rise of error and gaps of security at the border, adding quote, the fact that several serious plots in the united states have been foiled, point to an uncomfortable but unavoidable conclusion. put simply, the united states faces a serious threat of a terrorist attack in the months ahead so could a national security threat coming across our borders up and the us presidential election campaigns often game theory just the sort of scenarios. in fact, in 2008 richard clarke, the former white house counterterrorism coordinator helped then candidate barack obama plantar response to a hypothetical the gold attack by israel on iran's nuclear program. clark and his team later found out that that potential scenario almost happen. but the bush white house at intervene today, it's were kaddish.com. he's published a theoretical analysis of terror and how it could upend the 2024 campaign. joining me now is richard clarke. he's a former adviser to three us presidents and coauthor of warnings, finding cassandra's to stop catastrophes. so richard clarke, welcome back, game this out god forbid, if something were to occur, how would it be responded to by the biden administration, and how might trump seek to take advantage? >> well, i think something like this could happen. the fbi director christopher wray has been publicly warning about it something like this did happen in moscow in march of this year, an isis attack that killed 130 people at the concert so let's imagine the concerts in the united states and it happens in september or october. the october surprise you know what trump will say, he'll say this is a sign that biden fell down on the job. that biden was weak that biden abandoned afghanistan even though trump would have to and he will say that these people came across the mexican border whether or not we know at the time that they did all of that will hurt the biden campaign. a lot. unless it inoculates itself. now and how will it do that? you mentioned the article in foreign affairs and which morel and allison suggests something they suggest that we do now, a 1999 style alert 1999, bill clinton asked me to put the country on alert on the terrorism alert in december of that year. and we shook the trees. we looked everywhere, we questioned everybody. we augmented all the personnel we could and we stopped two or three attacks. that's the kind of thing that biden needs to do. now do you think that those forces that are antagonistic toward the united states, whether it's potent and russia and the submarine and cuba, whether it's china and she, whether it's north korea, whether it's isis, are acting in the manner that they are. so as to impact the outcome of the us election there's no doubt that russia and china want to affect the outcome of the us election. >> not only by their overt actions, but by their covert actions. they're both engaged actively in us social media through fake accounts trying to promote frankly the trump narrative. >> we know that they want that outcome and we can expect that they will do something in october as the time gets closer to the election what's clarke, some might be surprised to hear that the game theory aspect of this takes place that in a campaign such as we're in the midst of right now, they actually do prepare themselves for possible scenarios. can you say any more about the role you played in 2008, as i described in your introduction? >> yeah, susan rice was the national security adviser for that campaign. and she asked me to put together a group of so-called dirty minds people who could think of bad things that could happen not paranoids but people with experience who could look at tea leaves and see what could happen in the next two or three months. now, we should be doing this all the time but we do it almost every election season. the campaign and the administration put together a little secret cells to think about the unthinkable. think about what the opponent, not the campaign opponent, but foreign policy opponent might do and how you would react to that kind of surprise so that you have a script in advance. you've thought it out in advance you're really not caught flat-footed. when it happens, we came up with about ten scenarios for obama and thankfully none of them happened but as you pointed out, the israeli bombing of iran almost happened ambassador volker, if we've re-established, our connection, and i hope that we have. >> can you give us a final thought on what i'm discussing with richard clarke? how might the international perspective influence the us election yeah, i think that richard is exactly right. >> that prospect of a terrorist attack is real that the social media engagement of china and russia in our election is real. >> and it is aimed at influencing the election. >> now that social media but a terrorist attack, what would clearly have an effect, probably people rallying around the president gentlemen, thank you both appreciate your expertise. >> as always, what are your thoughts at home? hit me up on social media. i'll read some responses throughout the course of the program from the world of x, formerly known as twitter it's only a matter of time before someone who crossed the border illegally is involved in a terror attack will it be before the election? who knows? chuck baker? we all hope that you're wrong. but the sheer volume when you stop and think about, i think the number was close to 300,000 and counters last december, which set a record. the sheer volume of those who've come across the border make the odds high that there will be maybe not an act of terror. but acts of serious crime they murder, be they rape. and we've seen that borne out. and when they are, you can rest assured there'll be shown on a loop. and made fodder for this campaign i want to know what you think go to my website. it's were cottage.com and answer today's poll question. it actually directly relates to me asking ambassador volker about the significance of the eu election. will the maga movement outlast donald trump, something that it's a phenomena simply tied to him, me, i look at the results in the eu and i say there's something much larger than trump that's taking place and it's all around the globe, largely driven by migration and porous borders up ahead, you're looking at catherine princess of wales, earlier today when she made her first public appearance in months on the buckingham palace balcony attending king charles birthday parade known as trooping of the color. we're going to get a report from london and smartphones aren't just thousand dollars toys, they contain our entire lives, including getting banking and credit card data, which is why street thieves keep grabbing them. >> in london. one is stolen every six minutes. what can you do to prevent it? 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>> chablis, a slower time for seeing the royals. when might we next see her so i think what we're going to have to do is really look at what's cool. >> the court circular. it's incredibly golden, very british, but i can hear thunder now that is also very british. and that will just be a list of general events but the world's via possible, there's nothing as big as trooping the colour coming up in the diary, but it will be week to week, whether or not there's maybe a foundation event or a charitable event at the prison us wants to be a part of that and she feels that she can be a part of so i think there won't be anything significant in the diary. and as you say, to be honest, the royals do take a lot of the summit office vacation. so i think it will be a quiet few weeks ahead anna stuart, thank you for your report from buckingham palace. >> we appreciate it now to another story from london, mobile phone theft is ramping. and our whole lives are stored in these little devices. everything from our personal photos to our finances you're walking down the street, you're sitting at a cafe. suddenly you're the victim of a mobile phone mugging sometimes by a pedestrian walking by sometimes by someone riding on an e-bike. what i was in london last week, the tabloids were filled with stories of such incidents. one thief, finally apprehended, had stolen two dozen phones in one day and it's not just the thousand dollar phone thereafter. it's all the data on them, including banking and credit card information. according to the trade group payments industry intelligence in the year ending this past january, there was 33% increase in reported mobile phone theft in the united kingdom with losses from mobile banking fraud increasing 17% sent to nearly 24 million with an average loss per victim of nearly $3,000. i happen to have witnessed and attempted theft on my trip to london last week, last saturday afternoon at a time when i would normally be here delivering this program, my wife and i are having a beer with our frequent cnn guest, nyu business school professor scott galloway in marla bone, sitting in an outdoor cafe, all of a sudden there's this explosion of activity. people shouting, gathering round, right where we were one man had another by the throat, screaming to a woman who was at the next table. he tried to steal your phone? apparently this guy had, walked up with papers in his hand, laid them down as if to ask her a question when his real intent was to scoop up her phone, they called the police. police didn't arrive. the guy was ultimately let go and fled the scene, but it rai