good day, i'm chris jansing live at msnbc headquarters in new york city. first it was cocaine and steroids, now it is energy drinks. the expertations game for tomorrow's big presidential debate is shifting more often than a race car driver at indy. and we're learning more about the growing stakes as a new poll say a majority of americans will be tuning in. plus a stunning courtroom surprise. the man accused of killing seven people and injuring dozens more at a fourth of july parade in illinois at the last minute in court rejecting a plea agreement. how survivors and families of victims are reacting as the case now proceeds to trial. and an american journalist in a glass cage as his secret trial begins in russia. the falsely accused "wall street journal" reporter faces up to 20 years in prison following a trial expected to last for months. i'll ask an executive for the journal what this means for efforts to free him. but we begin with the expectations game. which has taken another new and questionable turn today. supporters of donald trump moving away from false claims that president biden will take drugs to get through tomorrow's debate. and instead perhaps suggesting he'll turn to legal beverages. >> trump's team should not underestimate joe biden and his team's ability to, you know, whether they're going to jack him up on mountain dew or whatever it is, that, look, the state of the union, he had energy for an hour. >> will he be an energy drinks or something. look, his energy levels, you could see, vary depending on what format he's in and what forum. >> this latest tactic comes just days after a third theory from trump that suggested that biden would prepare by sleeping. it is worth noting that none of this new. trump accused both hillary clinton in 2016 and biden in 2020 of taking performance-enhancing drugs. both sides know this debate could be a game-changer and a new poll shows the high stakes. a strong majority saying they're pail attention to the debate which suggests tens of millions of americans are likely to see or hear about part of thursday's debate despite how early it comes in the campaign season. bottom line, it is likely to be the most watched event of the campaign. nbc's gabe gutierrez is reporting from atlanta where tomorrow night's debate will be heltd. also with us, david jolly and msnbc political analysis. peter baker is "new york times" chief white house correspondent and msnbc political analysis. okay, gabe. where are expectations right now as the candidates prepare to face-off tomorrow? >> well, chris, they are all over the placesa were talking about. the trump campaign floating the idea that president biden might be an on energy drink, this comes after months of former president trump trying to make the case that president biden is unfit for office. now they're trying to lower expectations here and the biden came is firing back. after president trump suggested that president biden might be on performance enhancing drugs and the campaign saying donald trump is to scared of being held accountable for his toxic agenda of attacking reproductive freedom and cutting social security that they have resulted in lies. and we're told his campaign is preparing a robust rapid response operation both at campaign headquarters in delaware and also here on the ground in atlanta to counter false and misleading claims by former trump. trump, for his part, is right now at mar-a-lago and his campaign is planning to burn up several topics during the debate that it feels it could hit president biden with, including inflation and immigration. chris. >> so peter, when it comes to these shifting attacks that biden will be on something, could it be viewed as a preemptive move by republicans to set up an explanation, an excuse if biden is considered to be the winner of debate? >> yeah, this is the pregame, obviously. people are looking for things to talk about and to get excited about. and as you say, set the expectations. it was trump who was going around saying that biden was so feeble, so senile, so dottering, he couldn't put two sentences together so if he shows up on stage in atlanta and will be able to put more than two sentences together, then trump has to find a way to explain it. so he and his allies look for ways of explaining he's on energy drinks or whatever it is. it is all -- it is all game playing that you expect before a debate. the truth is most viewers won't be paying attention to this stuff. they'll be paying attention to what they see on stage. this is the one event that will be spontaneous and unscripted with both candidates on stage. it is possible to have a second debate in september that they've agreed to but we know of this one tomorrow night and anything could happen. >> and tens of millions of sets of eyeballs watching. and david, peter is right, the expectations game is nothing new. but talking about things like mountain dew, how does this help the gop beyond the base? i mean, if the point for both of these campaigns is this is an opportunity for them to reach out to people who truly are not decided or may be waiving for them offer the other candidate, what does this accomplish? >> chris, i see this as a very embarrassing and despicable moment for the republican party. a time stamp of what the party has become on donald trump. they're playing the expectations as we see as the pretext, their working the refs, whether that is the american people or the press. but look at what they're working the refs on, republicans are. it is on joe biden's acuity, his physical capabilities, his fitness, it is not on policy. and converts that or contrast that with what joe biden did in his response. which was to acknowledge exactly that. that they're coming after the president's physical capabilities, i want to talk about reproductive freedom and the economy and roe pecting economy. i think this shows that donald trump is scared going into the debate and republicans are scared because on the issues they're not that strong. the only issue that i think will see donald trump really hit home is on immigration and on the the border. and on that he'll misrepresent the facts. the bipartisan immigration deal or conflating crime numbers with the border, but i expect donald trump to pull a katie britton immigration, try to scare the american people. but republicans focused on joe biden, they're not talking about policy, they're talking about his physical capabilities. it is a shameful moment for mike johnson and other leading republicans right now. >> and policy is one part of it and immigration is big and the economy is big. but we also have new nbc news reporting that speak to the optics of this. we've asked multiple sources in both campaigns if they expect the debate stagehand shake. the consistent response is, i don't know and we'll see tomorrow. of course, in 2020, there was no handshake because of covid and in 2016 trump did not shake hands with hillary clinton. do you think that kind of optic or lack of sends a message to the american people, maybe some voters who are frankly fed up with what is happening with politics and are deciding whether to vote at all, let alone who they're going to vote for? >> yeah, it is an interesting question. when president trump was still in office and he gave his last state of the union dress and he went to the chamber and he refused to shake nancy pelosi hand as is done with the speaker in such a setting. so there is, of course, as you say, a precedent for this and it would be interesting to see whether they do. they both truly dislike each other. that is truly a genuinely the case. and it would not surprise me if neither one wants to shake the others hand. but it says something about our politics. because other candidates in the past, may not like each other, but there was something important about participating in an exercise of democracy, yes, they could disagree on issues and qualifications an disagree strongly, but they were part of the system. and we know that donald trump doesn't believe he's part of this system. he's been trying to tear the system down and joe biden is sort of the embodiment of the system, at a time when a lot of people don't particularly like it and i think that is going to be the symbolic import whether we see a handshake or not. >> let me ask you about a poll. 40% are extremely likely or very likely to watch clips from the debate later and 35% are somewhat likely to do the same. there is the expectation is there are huge numbers for the debate itself but i think it is fair to say a awful lot of people will only watch the debate or get their information from headlines or whatever clip goes viral. how important are those moments potentially tomorrow night, those moments that everyone will be watching? >> yeah, and it may feel shallow and deceptive, but in fact, that is what the reality of modern politics is. we've seen time and time again, instant polls often show what the voters think at the moment is different than what becomes the wisdom afterwards about who won and that is partly because of some viral moment and we didn't have anywhere near the ability that we do today through social media to create viral moments out of what may happen at this debate. and it is interesting to see the debate after the debate. the arguments about what is most important moment, what gains traction, what finds an audience in the broader ecosphere of our politics today and i think that is in a way the contest after the contest will be as interesting as what we see on stage in the immediate -- in the immediate moment. >> it would certainly be a moment, gabe gutierrez, if this debate came along with a vp announcement from donald trump. nobody knows what will happen. but what do we think we know? >> well, it could happen, or it could not. people familiar with the situation telling nbc news that the timeline, there have been high levels discussions within the trump campaign, but perhaps shifting the timeline of this vice president pick potentially as early as this week. now the caveats you mentioned, the timing is fluid and it is all up to donald trump. and you'll remember, former president trump, he actually said that he would reveal his vice presidential pick sometime around the republican national convention. which is in mid-july. but again, now, it could happen as early as this week according to people familiar with the situation. and we've been reporting that the top contenders here are doug burgum and j.d. vance and marco rubio. here is what j.d. vance said in a pre-taped interview that airs this morning. >> we reach out a lot of people among them and they said hey, sent us information. my best guess is they're looking at me and looking at a lot of other people too and they'll ask me if they ask me, and if they don't,s that fine. and if it doesn't happen, there is certainly a little bit of disappointment. >> and overnight former trump said in his own interview he expected to reveal his vice presidential decision, quote, fairly soon. we do know those three top contenders are expected here at the debates in atlanta. >> thank you both. former congressman david jolly is sticking around. watch chris jansing on thursday ahead of the debate, i'll be live with reporters and experts at 11:00 a.m. eastern and from 1:00 to 3:00 p.m. eastern right here on msnbc. also thursday, rachel maddow and team leads special coverage and analysis of the first presidential debate hosted by cnn. you could watch thursday beginning at 7:00 p.m. on msnbc. well, more politics. the squad will be shrinking in the next congress after one members got crushed in the most expensive house primary in history. nbc news projects that congressman jamal bowman lost new york 16th district primary by more than 16 points to moderate george latimer. it exposed democratic divisions over the israel-hamas war. bowman has been a vocal israel critic and apack investing $14.5 million to beat him. we'll dig into this much more and much many more races next hour in steve kornacki. and a shocking twist at an emotional hearing for the highland park shooter with survivors and families watching. we're live outside of the illinois courthouse with the details after this. >> today you saw absolute unadulterated evil. e unadulterated evil nothing dims my light like a migraine. with nurtec odt, i found relief. the only migraine medication that helps treat and prevent, all in one. to those with migraine, i see you. for the acute treatment of migraine with or without aura and the preventive treatment of episodic migraine in adults. don't take if allergic to nurtec odt. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. it's time we all shine. talk to a healthcare provider about nurtec odt from pfizer. 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(vo) new and existing customers get iphone 15 on us when they trade in any iphone. verizon nexium 24hr prevents heartburn acid for twice as long as pepcid. get all-day and all-night heartburn acid prevention with just one pill a day. choose acid prevention. choose nexium. it was a shocking and emotional day for families of those killed in the 2022 highland park july 4th mass shooting, all in court this morning and preparing to deliver their victim pact statements. the suspect had been expected to take a plea deal but in this surprise move, that deal was rejected. and the trial will now move forward. >> we came to court today in hopes that we could put this out of our mind. we have fourth of july coming up and it will be two years and all i wanted was to be able to fully grieve my mom without the looming trial knowing that he was going to spend the rest of his life in jail. and instead, we were yet again shown his complete and blatant disregard for humans, for anyone, for all of us in that courtroom. >> nbc's kathy park is outside of the courthouse. paul butler is a former federal prosecutor and msnbc legal analyst. heartbreak, kathy, it is palpable there. tell us more about what happened in the courtroom today. >> reporter: chris, good afternoon, yeah, motions were running high ahead of this hearing. as you mentioned, there were dozens of family members representing victims here ready to read off victim pact statements. they were preparing for a possible sentencing later on today. instead, we didn't get that far. there was a surprise twist in the courtroom shortly after court got underway this morning. after robert creamo iii, the attorney went over the terms of the plea deal, there was silence. the judge asked if the suspected shooter discussed this with his attorneys and he said nothing. and then at that point they took a recess and after that they said no. so what is next? well the trial will move forward. as scheduled february 2025. and this is something that once again the families are having to prolong another round of pain. in fact, just a few moments ago we had a chance to speak with one of the victim's daughters. take a listen to this. >> my dad was somebody who always said that we -- we should take -- if we did something, we should say we did it and be accountable for what we do. and i know he's up there looking at us now telling us right now, just to be patient and to let the court system do what they have to do. >> reporter: now robert creamo iii will be facing more than 100 charges. including murder and attempted murder and once again, chris, trial will move forward february 20, 25. this is going to drag on for several more months. when we asked if the family members if they were surprised or shocked and some of them said no because they knew that suspect was a wild card because earlier this year he had decided to do this on his own, kicked off his lawyers, but then brought them back and initially he changes his decision to move forward and decided to plead not guilty in the attack. so a lot of back and forth. and even the lawyer representing the plaintiff said that this individual used today as theater and this is kind of what they were anticipating, unfortunately. so we'll have to wait several more months now as the trial gets underway next year. chris. >> kathy, thank you for that. paul, how often have you seen something like this, i mean for families who have spent time preparing their victim pact statements. it is just -- you've dealt with this, just for them to walk into that courtroom where the person who they believe is responsible and who is charged with being responsible for killing thur loved one is there, for they to happen. does this happen very often and what is your reaction to it? >> it is not unusual for this to happen. when you plead guilty, you have to state to the duge that you are responsible for all of the criminal acts that the prosecution is accusing of you and sometimes when it comes to actually showing up in court and doing that, that is difficult for defendants. but chris, this will not be a hard case for the prosecution to prove. he admitted his guilt shortly after he was arrested. the advantage of the plea bargain for the prosecution is that it saved the resources of going to trial, i mean actually proving the case in front of a jury. and also as we heard, it protects survivors from the trauma of having to testify during a trial about something this horrific. >> and i wonder, given the evidence that they have, and in cases like this where a defendant and presumably his lawyer has explained to him the reasons why a plea deal might be advantageous, is it sometimes just because it gets them out of incarceration? it is another extensive period for them where they're not in those four walls and frankly from the perspective of some of the family members that we heard today, he just doesn't care. >> so, the legal advantage of a plea bargain for mr. creamo, is that it would avoid the mandatory sentence of life without the possibility of parole that he's almost certain to get if he's convicted of the crime. so, he could have presented evidence at his sentencing under this plea bargain about his mental health problems, any family issues, his age at the time of the trial, he was very young, i think 21 or 20 years old. again, maybe that would have made a difference to the judge. he certainly if convicted will go to prison for virtually the rest of his life. again, the plea bargain might have allowed some possibility of parole way down the road. so again, because the evidence is so strong, i'm not sure it is the most rational decision to reject this deal. but this is clearly a person who has issued with rationality. >> so paul, stick with us. we have some breaking news from the supreme court. bloomberg law reports that the court accidentally posted a document on its website related to its idaho abortion decision. now it is important, we do not know whether it is a draft, the actual decision, or neither, but it appears to show that the justices are poised to allow abortion in medical emergencies in idaho. but again, the court has not yet rendered its decision officially. and nbc's yamiche alcindor is reporting on this and i'm joined by paul butler and mary ziegler. what more do we know? >> we're still sort of