divide between house hard liners and the gop establishment and by yesterday leading republican voices were openly calling on house speaker john boehner to back down, to agree to a two-month extension or risk ruining the brand. and tonight looking grim, he did just that. >> there's always a right thing to do and while everyone asked for a full year extension of these programs, a lot of people weren't willing to put the effort in as the holidays were approaching to get it done. our members were. so i'm proud of the efforts that they put into this. >> dana bash is going to join us shortly to explain the mechanics of the deal, the specifics. president obama was quick to praise the outcome. this is the real money that will make a real difference this people's lives and i want to thank every american to remind folk in this town what this debate was all about. and to give an idea of the intense pressure that lawmakers were feeling, take a look at these two entries from rick crawford's page. the headlines read, crawford rejects irresponsible payroll tax deal. today, a seemingly 180 as crawford to boehner, let's compromise. to explain the compromise, what it means to you bottom line, dana bash is here. just this morning house republicans were saying that they weren't going to budge on this at all. what changed between that and this afternoon? >> reporter: well, even when they were saying that sanjay, we talked about that. the pressure was enormous. but first of all, right after that press conference, the senate republican leader issued a statement, breaking his silence and shoving the republicans into this position and saying, enough is enough. you've got to go ahead and pass this two-month extension. privately he was even more stesh stern, that he doesn't even want negotiations. the speaker called the president this morning asking for help from the white house to negotiate something kind of middle ground and the president refused. the white house to refuse anybody up here to the hill so the speaker had to negotiate with the senate majority leader and he tends to take -- and his people tend to take a harder line. lastly, and most important, the constituents, people who sent them here, they were very upset. we heard from many republican sources that the members who did go home for christmas were hearing from people, wait a minute, you're really going to be there in washington and not pass this extension to make sure that i have this extra money in my pocket? that's just not going to fly. >> i want to point out something important. the speaker says he's going to get this passed unanimously without having to get people back here to vote. but here's what congressman michaelly said about that this evening. >> you can come to the capital and say i object. will you do that? >> john, i'm not so sure that i'm not going to do that. >> dana, are we sure that this is really going to happen, that this is going to pass tomorrow? >> reporter: after covering this congress for the past year, i'm not sure. but however the speaker's office, they certainly feel that they are confident that they are going to be able to get this passed without having to call members of congress back to actually do it in person. i'll be here tomorrow night. that isn't going to happen until tomorrow night. >> we'll check back with you on that tomorrow. stay with us. i want to bring in john king and candy crowley as well john, we've been talking about this brave heart type references about fighting to the end. but this looks like a surrender. does it? is it? >> they fought to the end and they surrendered. they can say they did both. they are getting a small tweak in the language but they caved. dana went through it. you have the president who used the bully pull pit and used it throughout the last week. today he surrounded himself with real people and said this is who would be hurt by this. the senate majority leader said, look, i cut this deal with the democrats. a majority of my members voted for it. the republicans lost their leverage when that happened. they lost the leverage so they lost it in washington politically and losing the narrative out in the country politically as well. so they cut their losses. >> and, candy, if you give us a little peak behind the curtain, was there a sense, do you think, that republicans thought that they could really win on this issue? >> as hard as it is to believe, i have to tell you, the great mystery of this is that this was such a losing issue for the republicans from the start of this six weeks ago, when you looked at it, there is no way that you could allow this tax cut on payroll, on the payroll tax to expire without people saying, wait a minute, the republicans fought all year long against tax increases for millionaires and now they are doing a tax increase. that's how they did it from the very beginning. an entire year saying we can't do entire tax increases. it was just a very hard thing to do. i must say that there was some in the tea party portion on the house side that saw a string of victories, that they have been able to have, often working with the president which may be why the president sent john boehner back to harry reid. nonetheless, they may have been encouraged in the past but we're in an election eve year and that just didn't happen. >> i want to explore some of that, dana, that candy is bringing up. this is just a two-month fix. their promise, they will start negotiating right away on a year-long extension but we don't have a guarantee that will happen. and that was part of the resistance that we heard from the house republicans, right? >> reporter: that's exactly right. the resistance, even more importantly, from the senate democrats, why they felt that they needed -- and senate republicans why they needed this two-month extension. the issue at this point in time is that everybody says that they want the one-year extension but how do you pay for it? the whole package itself costs between 120 and $160 billion. and the whole reason why they had this short-term fix is they couldn't come to an agreement on how to pay for it. does it sound familiar? we've seen this throughout the year on various battles. how do you pay for it to ensure that the deficit doesn't go up and there are partisan divides and it's not going to be easy to come together on this year-long extension even if they have more time. >> right. and speaking of paying for it, one of the narratives, john king, that was part of this as well is that millionaires were going to get taxed. and that's not part of this deal. given that, were you surprised that democrats sounded like they were gloating? >> they are gloating today but you make an important point. the democrats have not gotten what they want to have millionaires pay more and that's what they wanted to pay for this. the republicans blanked and backed down but when we come back from the holidays, as candy knows, we will be in 20126789. e we will be in the election year. they are going to have to pay for it. they won't get their tax increase on millionaires, republicans won't agree to that. so what programs are you going to cut? that's difficult for the democrats. and then we're talking about a tiny payroll tax. what about all of the george w. bush taxes that are going to expire? we're going to get into a tax debate next year and the republicans will use what the democrats used this week. how could they possibly raise taxes right now. look, this chapter's closed but the fights not over. >> people are going to be accountable for some time to come for those words. candy, any idea of the impact on the republican candidates? i mean, the people feeling on the defensive? should they be engaging more? >> i tell you, the republican candidates stay away from this as far as they can possibly get. with the exception of michele bachmann who says, this is a quick fix, a band-aid, et cetera, et cetera. this is not something that they particularly wanted to get into because what was driving the opposition was the tea party and what's driving the primary is the tea party. >> right. and i couldn't help but notice, dana, if you looked at speaker boehner's demeanor and you talked to him directly, you notice his demeanor in the press tonight, he didn't seem happy at all. you get this caucus filled with people who don't care about the political consequences. i mean, how tough a year has this been for him, do you think? >> it's been a great year because he's been a speaker of the house but incredibly tough, sanjay, you're exactly right. i was struck by something that was obviously a politically terrible idea for the republicans to fight this fight. but guess what? the house speaker didn't have much of a choice. he is a very smart politician. there's no question that he knew this was a bad political fight to pick but he had a conference, a republican caucus and there's no question that it's been incredible tough for him. so far he navigated it pretty well. i'm told that on this press conference, generally he comes to them and asks them for approval. not this time. he said, this is my deal. this is what i struck, and this is what i'm doing. did not take any questions and it was over. and i was told that he sounded quote tired and ticked off. >> i bet. fascinating insights. really appreciate it. happy holidays, thank you for joining us. john king, dana bash, candy crowley. let us know what you think at home. follow us on facebook, twitter. i'll be tweeting tonight. up next, house speaker, president obama who benefits from tonight's breaking news? the answer may not be what some of the pundits are claiming. and, later, does a wave of deadly bombs mean that things are unraveling in iraq? you'll hear from an expert who says that the region is bracing for civil war. first, let's check in with isha. >> dogs nose put at the scene of a crime. was it junk science in court? that and more when "360 "continues. let's fight fat with alli. ♪ yeah, i toog nyguil bud i'm stild stubbed up. 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[ deep breath ] thank you! that's the cold truth! but to be honest, i find the omega choices overwhelming. which one is right for me? then i found new pronutrients omega-3. it's from centrum, a name i trust. it goes beyond my heart to support my brain and eyes too. and these ultra-concentrated minigels are much smaller than many others. it's part of a whole new line of supplements. there's probiotic and fruit & veggie too. new pronutrients from centrum helps make nutrition possible. all right. breaking news tonight. congress is back on track to renew the payroll tax cut. house speaker boehner bringing his republican members back on board, saying this about his earlier opposition to a deal. quote, it may not have been politically the smartest thing in the world. more now on what this means for republicans, for president obama. here to talk about it tonight, democratic paul begala and ari. everyone thinks that republicans lost the optics on this tax cut issue. what exactly do you think went wrong here for them? >> i think what went wrong is house republicans put substance first. they actually tried to do something long term. so my message to the president and harry reid is congratulations. you're leading in two-month increments. they mistook washington for a year-long, call it long term and politically it didn't work. >> but you have to agree, ari, a lot of people who have been paying attention on both sides of the aisle, the house republicans looked like they were not going to allow this tax cut to happen and that's a poor issue for them. >> but f well, no, the republicans passed a measure that cut taxes for one year. it was the senate that didn't let that happen. two months or one year and then a washington standoff. but they actually literally passed a tax cut. the notion that the republicans aren't for tax cuts is a laughable notion. republicans have always been for them. always will be. the democrats are getting pulled along through the republican position and in terms of the december 31 deadline. >> paul, i want to ask you about this. it's a little bit more of what this deal is about and the substance, for example, what is paying for these tax cuts. one of the things that the president wanted all along, paul, was taxing millionaires. he didn't get that. is this an unqualified victory? >> i think it's a very good point. that's the real dispute. the dispute is -- democrats didn't want two months and paid for so we wouldn't lose money in social security. the payroll tax comes out of the social security trust fund. we don't want to lose that money to social security. democrats put forward a proposal that would ask citizens who make more than a million dollars a year to pay 1.9% more. less than 2 pennies on the dollar after you make a million bucks to pay for this middle class tax cut. it was good economics. it was politics. they don't believe in tax cuts per se, if they go to the middle class. but when it's about the rich, they will oppose any foe to make sure that millionaires and billionaires don't have to pay even two pennies more and that's really the heart of the republican problem, is that they are seen now as the party of the wealthy elite and democrats are seen as the party of the middle class and that's what this fight was all about. >> ari, i want you have to respond to that but the issue all along was how it was going to be paid for and that seems to have gotten buried over the last couple weeks of extending this. >> well, paul is right. that's why taxes always go up when you have the democrats in charge. the reason that's so destructive, especially for social security, if social security is no longer a retirement fund and which you take money and give it to the government, they are supposed to invest it for you in social security. they are supposed to not spend it, which they always do. but as soon as you break the bond where your money that comes out of your payroll tax that goes for your social security and pay for general revenue, it's a welfare program. you have broken the bond that fdr and all those that came before us fought for. now it's just a distribution of income program. to extend paul's logic, one year from now when the same tax cut is up again, what will they do? let's abolish all payroll taxes in that case and make it all income taxes. that's the inevitable logic of what paul is pursing. >> happy holidays to both of you. ari, paul, wish your mother happ happy holidays as well. >> thank you. >> thank you. in iraq now with u.s. troops gone, the violence is ramping up. a string of coordinated attacks killing more than 60 people in baghdad. so what does this exactly say about security there without american forces and could this be a step towards civil war? plus, former player suing the nfl. they say the league misrepresented the impact of concussions after the nfl days are over. is a complete multivitamin for adults. plus an excellent source of omega-3 dha in a great tasting gummy. one a day, gummies for grown-ups. and video chat with up to 9 of your friends with the galaxy nexus by samsung, or get the samsung stratosphere, and for a limited time, get twice the data for the same low price. verizon. bombings across baghdad today killing 60 people. it's been less than a week since the american troops left iraq but already some are comparing this to the worst days of and a market, a coffee shop, even a school just as children were arriving for class. they hit almost exclusively a neighborhood shared by shiites and sunnis. let's talk about this. let's bring in arwa damon and cia director robert baer. he's co-author of the book "the company we keep." arwa, i've read what you've written today. it's the iraqi's worst nightmare. what is the latest that you're seeing from baghdad? >> reporter: well, sanjay, when we think about what took place, 16 explosions in two hours during morning rush hour. this is exactly what many iraqis feared would take place when the u.s. military withdrew. this casts a huge question mark whether the iraqi security forces can protect the population. and it wasn't just the explosions in the morning. there were four explosions that took place at night. once again, civilians are thrown into the mind set of that upmost fear, not knowing when you leave your house if you're going to see your loved ones again. >> i can't imagine living under those circumstances. bob, you say it could be potentially worse than that. you say your sources inside iraq tell you that they are stockpiling weapons for a potential all-out civil war? >> i've gotten multiple calls from people really worried about a civil war. they think that malaki is going to make a grab for power, that there's going to be ethnic cleansing and sunnis are going to be forced out. i mean, the indictment -- not the indictment but the arrest warrant for the vice president is a really bad sign and they are taking it as a bad sign and they are preparing for the worst. >> so you're talking about the prime minister who is the vice president who has a warrant out is sunni. you talked about the fact that many of the attacks have the hallmark of an oal qaeda affiliate. how much do you think is score settling or a power vacuum? >> reporter: san yjay, all of tt morphes together. it appeared to bear the hallmarks of al qaeda oral kw a qaeda-linked groups. and a vacuum is created and that vacuum tends to be violent extremists on both sides of the spectrum, groups that don't believe that dialogue is the way to settle political disputes but rather violence is. a great concern is that this is once again going to set off that cycle are tit for tat, sunni verse is shiite attacks. >> there are still contractors in iraq, many concentrated at the embassy of baghdad. you're concerned about the state of those people, is that right? >> the security forces, they are contractors and they are well qualified but can't contain an assault from a militia group. the embassy is too large and in a civil war it could come under attack. i think the state department should be very worried about that and, you know, we could have to rescue that mission. >> arwa, there on the ground, there's no military muscle left to speak of. does the united states have any influence on events happening on the ground? >> reporter: not a lot, sanjay. the u.s. doesn't have a strong trump card that they can play against the iraqis to force or influence what's happening here. the best that they can do right now is to urge these various leaders to try to sit around a negotiating table. the political crisis right now is actually monumental. you have the government collapsing like a house of cards, each side by the day growing more polarized against each other. all of these various fault lines are existing and crumbling apart and there are so many points percolating that at any given point in time could erupt to war along any sectarian or athletic line. >> bob, building on what arwa is saying, iran has been the real power player in iraq. what are your sources telling you in regards to how the iranians are involved in this and the relationship with malaki? >> you're going to see three conflicts. that would be iran, it would include turkey, and saudi arabia he yeah. saudi arabia said it will protect the sunni and i think it will. it will send it arms and money. the iranians can't avoid getting involved. i'm not sure that they want to. if it turns into a civil war, they will. and the turkey has to worry about the british north. >> arwa and bob, please stay safe out there. isha joins us again with a "360 bulletin". >> one massacre in syria. it's graphic. surrounded by military sources and slaughtered. 35 mo