tonight, health care on trial. it was the final day of dramatic supreme court hearings on the president's controversial health care law. now, justices again signaling a huge divide, a khasm that could doom obama's signature domestic achievement. with all uncertainty surrounding the law's fate, business owners are looking at how their costs will be affected and that means yours, if you're an employee. for some clarity, we turn to our strike team made up of entrepreneurs, innovators, ceos of companies of all sizes and our team members agreed their costs would go up but the big question is how much. here are some specifics. david roberts is the kachairmanf carlisle companies and he said his health care costs would go up by 3.5%. he would pass all of that in turn to employees. stewart miller, the president and ceo of lenar said his health care costs would rise 5% to 10% by 2014 and that would be passed on to employees. so they get an increase that goes straight through to your premiums. if the individual man date is struck from the law, costs could increase even more. that is if other pieces of the law go through. if the individual mandate is struck down. this is a crucial question and matters to every american. jeffrey toobin is here to talk about the last day of hearings at the supreme court and the fate of the law. jeff, let me just ask a sense from you of this question. if the mandate is struck down, what will be left? is the entire law thrown out or would things like covering pre-existing conditions theoretically be allowed to remain in? >> erin, that question which you just asked me is what the justices spent an hour discussing today. and they did not reach a consensus because some justices said, look, it is not our job to pick and choose among the remaining provisions if the core of it is unconstitutional. scalia said get rid of the whole thing. at times so did chief justice roberts, anthony kennedy and justice alito although they were less committed on that issue. the four liberal justices were deeply committed to arguing, look, if part of the law is unconstitutional, that's the only part you get rid of. that question of whether all of it goes or some of it goes, that really was not resolved. i think we know or we have a very good sense that the individual mandate is in deep, deep trouble. but how they will carve the law up, just the mandate, just the related parts, all of it, i really couldn't conclude based on what i heard today. >> which is a terrifying thing just in terms of raw cost. if the mandate is struck down, you don't have all these extra people suddenly insured, but you're keeping a lot of the higher cost elements of the plan like allowing pre-existing conditions. that could mean costs for americans really go significantly higher. >> but at least three justices raised that very question. scalia -- not scalia, alito, roberts and kennedy all said what are the insurance companies going to do without the mandate? now, i didn't hear anyone say what are the 30 million people who are going to lose insurance coverage going to do? that was a striking difference of priorities that was evident in this oral argument. but certainly that issue of what's going to happen to the poor insurance companies was very much on the mind of some justices. >> yeah, right. i guess the point i'm making is people who do have jobs and have insurance could -- their premiums could go up significantly. those people struggling to make ends meet as well. let me ask you a quick question. the slefolicitor general makinge case for the white house. yesterday they said he's doing a good job, did a great job, he's able. how did he do today? did he make up for yesterday's mistakes? >> he did better today. he only argued the part of the law which was the challenge to the medicaid expansion. medicaid is for poor people. this law would expand the state's obligation to pay while giving the states a lot more money to pay for poor people. he had a much better day today and that part, that last hour of the six hours, i would say was the best part for the obama administration in terms of getting support from the court, although even that is no sure thing. but certainly he had a much better day and that part of the law looked somewhat more secure than the rest of it, but again, not a sure thing. there are several justices who really think this law is a bad, bad thing. >> jeff toobin, thank you very much. now, the arguments are done, they have a lot of time to ruminate, think and home fully to read those 170 friend of the court briefs. the ruling will come in june. that's the height of the presidential election. so this is where it gets, well just, you know, this is where we can't resist here outfront. if the law gets struck down, what does that do to the president's re-election chances? do they surge or plunge? the president has a double-digit lead over mitt romney and rick santorum. the president's approval rating topping 50% for the first time since last may. so does the health care law, if it's defeated or not defeated, what does it do to the president? james carville joins us and john avalon. i've seen you listening to jeff toobin with that devilish smile on your face. if the law gets struck down, you think it would be great? >> first of all, you've got to give it toobs, he's worried about 30 million people without insurance instead of insurance companies. how quaint. if they overturn it 5-4, i think it would be the best thing that ever happened to the democratic party. people will say the health care costs are going up and they'll say we tried, five people overturned an election, overturned this. bush v. gore bring you this and i think we'll have an issue to go for a long, long time. i'm fine with it. overturn it 5-4. let the hacks have their day. >> john, you disagree? >> yeah, you've got to search pretty hard for a silver lining to come up with a scenario where having the signature legislative accomplishment struck down becomes a good thing. i agree with james to this extent that in the short run i think it will help turn out the democratic base and make the issue of -- the power of the president to appoint a supreme court justice resonate far beyond roe v. wade and abortion. it will mainstream that issue. whatever side, quote unquote, loses this, we'll see a surge in the base. but given the pain the democrats went through in 2010, the elimination of the blue dogs virtually because of the cost of carrying this piece of legislation across the finish line that, would all be for naught and a disaster for the administration. >> let me try to explain. what's going to happen is no matter what, health care costs will escalate. 20 out of 100 people are 65 or over. every time somebody loses their insurance because of pre-existing condition, every time they go up, go see scalia, he'll take care of you. and the democrats will say we tried. we had this in place. we had addressed this problem at great political cost to ourselves and at great courage. five people on the supreme court substituted their judgment. everything that happens in health care from the day that they strike this down is all going to be on the republicans and the supreme court's doorstep. that's just a fact. and as the population ages, more and more things are going to happen. so i'm just talking politically. i'm not talking about a citizen, i'm not talking about an individual or anything. it's a professional democrat, this would be a good thing for democrats over a period of time, i absolutely believe that. >> john, it's interesting the argument james makes. certainly that would be the democratic establishment argument they'll make and there is a certain power to that. getting defeated by a slim margin does give you that underdog that, moral authority. the citizens united link. that also helps, doesn't it? >> again, i do think it will help motivate the base in the near term but james is speaking as a political consultant. people's frustrations and resentment with health care going on will be on the republicans and supreme court. that's a great argument to make. that's a great narrative to set up but i don't think it takes away from the fact that this would be a devastating blow to the signature legislative accomplishment of this president. and there's no way to spin that in the near term to make democrats feel good about that. >> all right. thanks very much for both of you. i appreciate you taking the time. next, our exclusive interview with john henry brown. he is the man defending staff sergeant robert bales, the man accused of killing 17 afghan civilia civilians. and a jetblue pilot now faces charges after passengers had to subdue him during flight. are we properly screening our flight crews in this country? and hundreds, maybe thousands of people are planning to burn ipads in china. we'll tell you why. 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♪ try align today. breaking news. ptsd, that is to blame for staff sergeant robert bales' allege shooting rampage in afghanistan earlier this month. that's according to his lawyer, john henry brown, today. he is also looking into the medication bales may have been on at the time of the incident, including malaria medicine that some say can cause severe paranoia and hallucinations as well as violence. i sat down with brown shortly before our show and started by asking him what staff sergeant bales has told him in the 11 hours of time they have spent together over two days. >> it's really interesting. he's obsessed with what the allegations might cause problemwise for his brothers, and the younger soldiers that he was mentoring. he's obsessed about that. he's really not thinking about his own future right now, which is quite interesting, since he should be. >> you had talked about him as being a deer in the headlights. his wife has said he appeared confused. at this point does he understand what's happening? does he understand exactly what he is accused of doing? >> i don't think so, to be honest with you. we have told him -- he knew what the allegations were before i met with him. he knew in kuwait, they told him. >> so what does he remember? what does he remember specifically? >> he remembers before the alleged incident and he remembers after the alleged incident and he has some little windows kind of into things. he remembers hearing things and smelling things, which is very common with people with head injuries if they have a memory problem. >> smelling what, like -- >> gun powder, blood, things like that. but i'm not -- i'm not saying that's what he told me, i'm saying that's common for people with head injuries. >> so he does have some windows. >> yes, yes. >> can you give us a little sense of what those might be -- >> no, i can't. i can't. it wouldn't be appropriate right now. >> the context here is that it's a war that's been going on a long time. it's been a massacre of innocent civilians. no one else has come forward -- an allegation. no wunlts has come forward. when he came back on the base, whether it was in between or after, he talked about having shot people. isn't that difficult from a broader point of view to try to say that he didn't do it? >> i don't know that i trust anything about him saying i shot people, because i have not heard that from any source i trust. >> that means that you are still trying to prove or force prosecutors to prove that he actually did this to begin with? >> well, it's a fascinating case from a defense lawyer's perspective. the first thing you do is prove it. and that's -- you know, it's not a traditional crime scene. there is no crime scene. the military has not even been back to the villages where this allegation stems from. they haven't been back there. so there's no crime scene, there's no dna, there's no fingerprints, there's no confession. it's -- you know, the afghan people traditionally, i understand, and understandably, bury their dead very quickly. >> yes, mm-hmm. >> so it's going to be a tough case for the prosecutors. >> so what sort of defenses would you take? obviously proof being your first step. are you still considering -- i mean is insanity possible? is ptsd possible? diminished capacity? do you have any sense of where you might go? >> well, i think when the experts are done with this case that they'll definitely be ptsd, i mean just from what i know. i've represented battered women a lot, i'm very proud of those cases more than anything. many of whom have ptsd. so i know a lot about ptsd and the symptoms and everything and i'm convinced from my conversations that ptsd will be an issue. so whether that -- you know, insanity means under the law is you don't know the difference between right and wrong basically. that's a pretty high standard. hard to beat. diminished capacity is different and that is because of something going on -- because of a mental disease or defect -- >> so diminished capacity could be because of ptsd. >> or con cussive head injury. >> so that seems like that would be more the direction you would be going, ptsd, diminished capacity? >> if i am convinced they have a case. and if i think there's facts to support it. i mean i know there's a concussive head injury and i know he has memory problems. he couldn't relate to us even what kind of medications he had been prescribed earlier, which to me really proves to me that he has legitimate memory problems. i know there's a lot of discussion about the malaria drug and i don't know yet -- >> so you don't know whether he was taking it yet? >> no, we have to get his medical records. and i don't know. i wouldn't be surprised. but i don't know that. >> and so he didn't remember taking it? >> no, no, he doesn't remember anything he was taking. >> anything. >> so what i'm saying is i can't confirm to you -- >> right. >> -- that he was taking it because that would be dishonest of me. >> when do you hope to have the results, to have his medical results? >> the next two weeks. >> they do say all those things. his past also includes assaulting a girlfriend. >> no, no. >> 2002. >> allegedly assaulted a girlfriend. >> in 2008, cited for leaving the scene of an accident before he joined the army, arbitrators ordered him to repay a million dollars due to trading fraud when he was a financial adviser. >> and you really think that people are going to go out and kill women and children because they have financial problems? i don't think so. >> no, but to portray someone as an innocent and a saint that no one ever says bad about would seem to be also slightly inconsistent with that. >> i didn't say a saint. >> you said no one said anything bad with him. >> the people that worked with him since he's been in the army, nobody has said anything but really good things about him. >> well, thank you very much, i appreciate it. >> you're welcome. it was an honor. thanks. >> it's interesting that his attorney also said that while he expects to see sergeant bales as soon as tomorrow, that sergeant bales may soon see his family, he will not see his children. he says they are too young to understand what's happening to their father and they believe that he is still working in a faraway place. we also have more breaking news and charges filed against the jetblue pilot whose frightening rant about iraq and israel forced an emergency landing yesterday in amarillo, texas. the federal criminal complaint alleges the 49-year-old captain interfered with the flight crew during a midair meltdown. it reads he began talking about religion, but his statements were not coherent. the f.o., that's the first officer, became concerned when he sesd things just don't matter. he yelled over the radio to air traffic control and instructed them to be quiet. the f.o. became really worried when he said we need to take a leap of faith. >> he decided to then bang on the cockpit door and the bathroom door, and yelling give me the code, give me the code to get in, telling the pilot to put it in idle, put it in idle and then that's when everyone jumped up, the front six rose of men subdued him and took him down to the ground. >> all i could think of was my wife and my twin children and the only thing i could think of. >> that's just it. we got it, this can't happen. >> lots of questions today about the pilot's mental health. jetblue responded saying the company is in full compliance with the faa's requirement of annual health screenings for pilots under 40 and twice a year for those over 40. jim is a former commercial pilot for american airlines. thanks very much for coming out front. how shocked are you to hear about an incident like this? >> oh, i don't know if shocked is the right term to use, but i am terribly surprised because i've never seen anything in my own personal experience after decades of flying for a commercial airline. i can only find in the history maybe three or four cases similar to this at all in the industry. >> well, i want to ask you about these screenings. can you tell us about what these mental screenings entail? i mean do they give you a medical physical check? is it just a question and answer session? how does it work? >> it's all of that and beyond. the flight physicals are very, very thorough and they look at almost everything there is. they delve into your medical history. they want to check everything they can check. the one thing that seems to be at least difficult, if not impossible, is being able to peer into the person's mind, into their psychology and to know something more about what's going on with them emotionally. that's not generally part of the examination, at least it wasn't in any of the exams that i had. but it's as thorough as they can get superficially. >> so is it possible that they could ask you questions about what medications you were on or what your mental health state was and you could, you know, feel that you would be stigmatized if you were honest and therefore you think it's not a big problem whatever i have and so you lie? >> yes, indeed. and i know that sounds like an indictment on the integrity and honesty of some of the airline pilots, but i know a number of pilots who just don't take certain kinds of ailments and problems to the faa-approved flight surgeons because it's like a ticket to leave your career. b