for mitt romney the expectations couldn't be higher. he's declared new hampshire front-runner and nationally as well. his business record has been turned into a target. there's intense pressure on the former massachusetts governor to post a big win. >> if we're able to win tonight, it'll be historic. it'll be the first time anyone who is not an incumbent in our party whose won iowa and new hampshire. i have my fingers crossed. it could be a big night for us. >> candy crowley is at the romney headquarters tonight. how are they handling the expectations game and how big of a windows governor romney need? >> reporter: listen, you heard him. it's just a win would be great, historic, we'll be the first people to do this. you've seen these polls. they had one at one point, it was a couple weeks back showing him in the 40% range. they don't expect that. they do expect something in the 30s. but as we like to say all the time. a win is a win is a win. and he looks and feels as though he's going to have a pretty good night tonight. how do we know that? i can tell you right now just some sort of secret sleuthing we've been doing, they have confetti cannons. they're expect to go have something big to celebrate. >> confetti cannons. is there a sense of surprise, candy? newt gingrich told me romney should be at 50%. everyone will have fun with the expectations for governor romney s. there a sense of surprise as they prepare to celebrate that their rivalries waited so long to get so sharp in their criticism? >> you know, it's interesting because in some ways it seems they were taken by surprise because he hasn't been that great at the push back, but in other ways they had to know it was going to come. if you look at it and the way they look at it is if you want to have something -- if something's going to come out. we knew where the democrats were going with this because they had already started. you want to deal with it in january and draw the sting so that in september if he becomes the nominee, people have heard this over and over again. it doesn't have the kind of impact that it's having now. they don't believe it's going to hurt him here in new hampshire. we'll have to see what goes into those mailers in south carolina, what goes up on the air in south carolina. but they don't expect it's going to have a huge impact here in new hampshire. they think all in all better to do this in january than to do this in the fall. >> candy crowley at the headquarters where they expect the biggest celebration. we'll see you all throughout the night. jon huntsman has staked a big finish in new hampshire. there is some evidence of a huntsman surge. the former utah governor hopes a flood of votes will help him deliver a surprise finish. jim acosta is with the huntsman campaign. let's be honest. they want to beat governor romney on his home turf. now they don't expect that to happen. can they stay in the race if there's anything short of a strong second? >> i don't think so. it is new hampshire or bust for jon huntsman. he has bet big on this state. while other candidates were in iowa efgs campaigning from manchester to the white mountains. i had a chance to speak with him earlier about this state's history of big political surprises. he told me that's exactly what he's hoping for tonight. >> we have always thought that new hampshire was a place to come, where you can upend conventional wisdom and i think tonight conventional wisdom is going to be upended again. >> reporter: is this do or die for you? >> we have too do well. we have worked this market harder than anybody else. 170 events. we have given it our heart and soul. we have done everything humanly possible. >> reporter: now the new hampshire secretary of state has said that they expect a big record turnout for tonight's primary results, and eye lot of that could be independents and moderates. if that's the case, if you have a strong surge of independents and non-affiliated voters, that could play right into jon huntsman's hands, john. >> if they get that boost above expectations as he likes to say finish, are they ready? do they have a financial plan in place to go on to south carolina and beyond? >> reporter: john, i asked a huntsman aid about that. if they do well tonight, if they have a great night, the plan is to go on to south carolina and, yes, they believe they have the resources to compete as this campaign goes on, john. >> critical night. jim acosta standing at the jon huntsman headquarters. we'll check in with jim. this primary day finds ron paul as always marching to the beat of his own drum. congressman paul came to the front-runner's defense today criticizing the other republican candidates who are now attacking romney's record and comments about business. >> if the other candidates that are criticizing mitt are serious, then they don't have the vaguest idea about the market because all he's talking about the market. if they do have an understanding of the market and know they're wrong, they're politically demagoguing this to get a political point. >> dana bash is covering the paul campaign. dana, help me out with the logic on this one. come to the defense of the guy in front of you, why? >> reporter: for several reasons. number one, let's just face it. ron paul is anything but a typical candidate. let's take that aside. he is obviously going for number two here. that is what he thinks is critical. also when it comes to his ideas and the kind of thing that he wants to put out there, it is that he's an authentic candidate. is he a consistent candidate. so authenticity and consistency for someone like ron paul is saying i'm somebody for the free markets. it gives him the ability to say i'm not a typical politician. what's going on with all these other republican candidates attacking mitt romney, it's classic politics and i'm above it all. that's what this allows him to do. >> as you're there at the headquarters tonight, they had a strong showing in iowa. that helped them stay in the race. how does the paul campaign define a win tonight? they don't expect to win the state, but how do they define a win in terms of their showing? >> reporter: the way they define a win is by a strong second or maybe a third. you heard ron paul try to lower those expectations as the day went on today. maybe third is okay. but they really do hope to get in the double digits, maybe even 20% in order to keep going. what is keeping going mean? it means being able to raise more money and to be able to get the ability to compete in the states that we're seeing next, south carolina and for the paul campaign perhaps skipping florida and going on to some of the caucus states to rack up as many of the delegates as he possibly can to keep what he calls his movement going. obviously he says he wants to be the nominee but that for ron paul is not really the ultimate. the ultimate is also keeping this idea going that he wants to change the republican party to get the idea of anti-government libertarian views back in, maybe even a platform, and tampa at the republican convention, we'll see. >> without a doubt an impact player in this race. we'll see what new hampshire does tonight. rick santorum is counting on a win. senator santorum was on the radio a short time ago trying to broaden his support beyond social conservatives. >> we bring a lot of folks who would like to support conservatives but have that little bit of doubt whether, you know, we really are for everybody. and so i think we can open up that door which will be a big transformation in this country. >> and we aren't expecting much support for the texas governor rick perry tonight. he ignored new hampshire this week to focus on south carolina. today he served notice that mitt romney and his tenure at b bain capital will be a flash point. >> i would suggest they're just vultures. they're vultures sitting out there on the tree limb waiting for the company to get sick and then they swoop in. they eat the carcass. they leave with that and they leave the scuttle. >> vultures. tough talk there from governor perry. like governor perry, newt gingrich is suggesting mitt romney's record shows greed. he joins us to look beyond new hampshire. >> we're going to go all out to win in south carolina. we think that's a key state for us, and we think that the contrast between a georgia reagan conservative and a massachusetts moderate is pretty dramatic. >> also ahead, new hampshire's voters sound off. soledad o'brien joins us from a key manchester polling station. when i grow up, i want to fix up old houses. ♪ [ woman ] when i grow up, i want to take him on his first flight. i want to run a marathon. i'm going to own my own restaurant. when i grow up, i'm going to start a band. 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[ female announcer ] discover what's next in your life. get this free travel bag when you join at aarp.org/jointoday. . less than an hour now until most polling stations begin to close across new hampshire. newt gingrich needs a strong finish before moving onto the campaign in south carolina where help will be waiting. an independent group backing gingrich will be spending millions of dollars on attack ads kritd sizing mitt romney's record. mr. speaker, south carolina in a moment. let's talk about expectations for tonight. can you make the case, as you do now, that governor romney is a weak frer and would be a weak nominee? is your credibility to make that case weekend new come in at the back of the pack tonight, potentially behind rick santorum, perhaps behind jon huntsman. >> you'll end up with ron paul in second, huntsman and i bunched in a group is my guess. huntsman has spent all of his time here. this is the only place he's campaigned intentionally. the key question for romney who has bought a house here, lived here for years, campaigned here, was government nor next door, ran for the u.s. senate next door, if he can't break 50% in a state that is i think his third best state after utah and massachusetts, it's going to be interesting to see how he makes the case that he is the presumptive front-runner. yes, he has more votes but at no point so far has he come anywhere to having closely convinced a majority of republicans despite spending five years, in the case of iowa $20 million and he got 25% of the votes. he got 66 more votes this year than he got in 2008 after spending another $10 million. so we'll see tonight. my hunch is he'll come in about where paul tsongas did when everybody thought he lost the election at about 37%. if that's the case governor romney has a hard case to make that we should find him electable. he's campaigned the longest. i think as we go south in south carolina we're going to have a very different set of arguments and i think he will have a fairly hard time defending his record when we get to south carolina. >> we'll let the expectations. i love the way you try to raise the bar to 50% in the state of new hampshire. that's what makes it fun, mr. speaker. ultimately to be the nominee you have to start winning. is sk svg a must-win state for newt gingrich. >> i think it is. we're going to go all out to win in south carolina. we think that's a key state for us. we think that the contrast between a georgia reagan conservative and a massachusetts moderate is pretty dramatic. i fought for tax cuts. he raised taxes dramatically. in fact, romney taxes.com we've outlined all of his tax increases. i'm for the second amendment rights. he was for massachusetts gun control laws and he raised the tax on owning a begun by 400%. i am right to life. he put planned parenthood in romney care. he has state funded abortions in romney care. he did a number of steps that were remarkable in favor of abortion for a guy who claimed he had converted. so i think when you get to a record versus record in south carolina, he's going o have a very hard time defending his record as governor. >> stay with us. much more of our conversation with newt gingrich ahead. he insists he's not attacking capital limp when he raises questions about mitt romney's business record. with the polls about to close, new data from our exit polls. erin burnett looks at when our voters made up their mind and the most important factor in their big decision. 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[ woman announcing ] new beneful healthy fiesta. on my journey across america, i've learned that when you ask someone in texas if they want "big" savings on car insurance, it's a bit like asking if they want a big hat... ...'scuse me... ...or a big steak... ...or big hair... i think we have our answer. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. welcome back to cnn elections. about 30 minutes away now from the closing of most polls in the state of new hampshire. in the half hour ahead we'll go live there. wolf blitzer will join me. we'll go live to key polling precincts. not just who they're picking but why. much more of the fascinating exit poll data. and among the candidates fighting for survival, newt gingrich is catching lots of flak for criticizing mitt romney's business record. today, just today, ron paul called it a big mistake. in our interview just a short time ago the former speaker explained why he's refusing to back off. >> this is contrast politics, what you're doing right now. i don't call it negative politics. do you regret not doing it sooner? >> well, i might have done it in retrospect in iowa and i suspect had i done that in iowa, mitt romney would have come in even weaker than he was. i was, as i said to all of you at the time, i was running a real experiment. had gotten to be the front-runner nationally by being totally positive. i really liked the campaign when it was totally positive. i loved talking about ideas, visions, solutions. i was startled by the size and the ferocity and in some cases the dishonesty of the attack ads. when you have 45% of all the ads run in iowa were attacks on me, it makes you feel like you must have done something to get their attention about the at another level you'd just as soon not have quite that much attention. it took us a couple weeks to adjust. it's clear the only way to compete with romney since he is going to run a negative and expensive campaign, the only way to compete with him is to be very direct about contrast, to draw both of our records and to consistently come back to how different we are and how much more moderate he is than virtually any part of the republican party in this country. >> you have taken very aggressive aim, very aggressive sharp contrast in his records. i want you to listen to your words. it sounds like you're trying to say here is a guy he had virtue from the business community. listen to this, you seem to say he's greedy and heartless. >> those of us who believe in free markets and those of us who believe in fact the whole goal of investment is entrepreneurship and job creation would find it pretty hard to justify rich people figuring out clever legal ways to loot a company leaving behind 1700 families without a job. >> this is a character re you're raising. >> john, you put your finger on it exactly. this is not about capital limp. this is a toetdly phony defense that says to raise any question about romney's business career is an attack on capital limp. that is just plain baloney. more of the romney baloney approachment the fact is he's been going around saying his 25 years in business are the major part of why he should be in business. fine, let's look at that. what was his approach? it is a question of judgment, of values, and of character. we know of one case for sure where they put in 30 million, they took out 180 million, six times as much, and the company went broke. now what was the judgment and the character? what were the values applied that took that much money out of a company as it went broke and all of its employees lost their jobs? i think that is a legitimate question to ask somebody who wants to be president of the united states. it's not about capital limp in general. it's not even about venture capital limp or entrepreneurial capital limp. it's about mitt romney and his record. he's the one that said this is the key part of understanding him. fine. we began looking at him t. turns out immediately they didn't defend it. they threw up a smoke screen saying you're not allowed to ask any questions or you're against capital limp. that's nonsense. in terms of job creation, i helped ronald regan with job creation in the '80s. when i was speaker there were 11 million new jobs created. mitt romney raised taxes. massachusetts ranked 47th in job creation because his tax increases killed jobs, it didn't create them. >> does it say anything about the consistency of your campaign in the sense that i know you've decided to shift a little bit. you told us this in mid december, you had raced questions about bain. there was a brief moment where he frankly got under my skin. i responded in a way that made no sense; doesn't fit my values, made some references to bain where i've said publicly he's a good businessman and manager. which newt gingrich should we believe? >> you should believe the newt gingrich who since then has read the more detailed reports in places like "the wall street journal" which laid out chapter and verse of what i'm describing to you. again, it's not every case. there were companies that bain did fine with. they behaved apparently fine with some of them. there are very specific cases and i believe within a week he has to have a press conference and he has to walk through and explain the cases. how do you take out $180 million and then have the company go bankrupt? there's something that's just not right for that. i'm all for people becoming successful. steve johns bs invented real products. he