>> and the two frontrunners in a bitter duel with a lot to prove and a lot to lose. >> tonight mitt romney's toughest test since rick santorum's surge. >> if you want a fiscal conservative, you can't vote for rick santorum because he's not. >> does the word "hypocrisy" come to mind? >> it's a two-state showdown with one frontrunner trying to avoid an embarrassing defeat. >> governor romney is discovering you cannot take your home state for granted. >> will romney prove his staying power or will he suffer a crippling setback in michigan or arizona? it's america's choice. santorum climbed his way to the top. now he wants to win a valuable prize. the state where romney was born and raised. >> it's laughable that governor romney suggests that i am not a conservative. >> romney is waging a fierce battle, in two states that should have been shoes in. >> senator santorum hasn't been as carefully viewed by the american public as have the others. >> the two leaders struggling to erase voters' doubts, fighting each other and underdogs who are ready to pounce. >> those others who are at the top now doesn't mean they're going to stay there. >> this is the wildest, strange est primary process. >> will there be a split decision or will one candidate take it all? >> who's authentic? who's believable? >> my team is the people of michigan and of america and i'm going to fight for you. >> the momentum keeps shifting. controversies keep coming. and tonight kicks off a blockbuster round of contest that is could change everything. welcome to the cnn election center this special edition of "john king usa." a watershed night in the presidential campaign. voting under way right now in michigan and arizona. 59 delegates are at stake in two states that should have been easy targets for mitt romney. instead he's in a fierce fight against his main rival, rick santorum. as always wolf blitzer, anderson cooper joining us here every step of the evening. >> if romney were to lose one or both battle grounds at stake tonight, the republican race for the white house could be more up in the air than ever. anderson, it's been remarkable how the battle between these two guys has been going. because it really is close. >> this month has been a remarkable month for rick santorum. romney heading into the round of voting tonight with four victories in new hampshire, florida, nevada and maine. santorum also won four contests, iowa, missouri, colorado and minnesota. we are not for getting newt gingrich and ron paul. but it's been a while since gingrich had his one victory in south carolina. and ron paul still searching for that big one, john. anderson we're going to look now at our early exit polls, michigan and arizona. let's focus on michigan. one of the big questions there, it's an open primary. rick santorum has been openly calling the homes of democrats saying come out and vote for me. democrats said they don't mind if democrats go out and cause mischief in the republican primary. let's take a look at the electorate in michigan tonight. number one we are seeing -- this is a republican primary. moderate or liberal. in the voters in michigan today, 40% are describing themselves as moderate or liberal. 30% as somewhat conservative. 30% as very conservative. so 60% are conservative or what. but this is a number. we'll watch throughout the night. 40% anderson say they're moderate or libl. who are they? let's take a closer look at the electorate in michigan. 59% 6 in 10 identify themselves as republicans. that's a low number. it was 68% in 2008 in the primary there. 10% of the voters in the state of michigan tonight, remember that number 10% describe themselves as democrats. that's up from 7% four years ago and 31% describe themselves as independents. that's also up from four years. one other quick look at who's voting in michigan tonight. 14%. 14% say yes, they are union members. now we tend to identify union members with the democratic party. however, while the democratic percentage is up this year, that 14%, wolf, that's identical to the republican primary four years ago. so one of the things we'll watch tonight, how much influence are democrats having on this republican race in the state of michigan. >> it's going to be a fascinating moment. we'll see what happens on that front. john, thanks very much. it's going to be an exciting night i can assure you of that. let's check in with our correspondents at the frontrunner's headquarters. candy first at romney headquarters. i should have said candy crowley in case there was any doubt which candy we were talking to. but tell us how we got to this point. >> reporter: listen, as the romney campaign looks back, i remember vividly coming out of florida a big win for mitt romney and talking to some of his strategists. they said, you know, i said, what are you worried about? they said, rick santorum, really. he's particularly good in some of these caucus states, but we're watching him. then after nevada a caucus state obviously mitt romney won that. they were a little more bullish about their chances. but still had their eye on rick santorum. what they did not expect is that the message would go off the economy -- remember this is how mitt romney got in. i'm a business guy. i know how to create jobs. they thought his resume' perfectly fitted this year. but in the past three weeks, what we've seen is a dynamic where the social issues have come forward. and that is not terra firma for mitt romney. not where he feels comfortable or can collect a lot of conservative votes. he want to get back on the economic message. he was doing that even this morning. >> i happen to think that people across the country want someone who understands the economy. that's what i know. that's in my wheel house. i understand how the economy works. i'm running against a guy in this state who's an economic lightweight. he doesn't understand how the economy works, never having had a real job in the private sector, he doesn't know what it takes to create real jobs in the private sector. and i do. and i want to use that experience not to convince democrats to vote against me but to convince republicans, independents and democrats to vote for me. >> the economy, the economy, jobs and jobs. this is where mitt romney wants to take the conversation back. he thinks it helps him with those conservatives and even those very conservatives that have been going to rick santorum, because he's also keeping an eye out on those voters who say the primary thing here is for us to win in november. those generally in past elections have been proven to be mitt romney people. they are hoping that combination of trying to refigure the message and get it back on track and the number of folks saying that number one in their heart is someone to beat president obama will keep him on track here in michigan. but as you know, everything we saw going into this race at any rate said it was a toss up here, wolf. >> all the polls showed that. candy, thanks very much. he called santorum an economic light weight. let's go to santorum headquarters. jim acosta standing by over there. over the past couple, three days there's been what some are calling a little political mischief going on. santorum supporters actually going out and trying to recruit democrats to vote for him. what's going on? >> reporter: that's right, wolf. i just caught up with the senior strategist for the santorum campaign, john braybender a few moments ago. he was saying they were basically microtargeting the way he put iteration putting reagan in this state. robo calls encouraging democrats to cross over in this primary and cast their ballots for rick santorum. i had a chance to catch up with the former pennsylvania senator earlier today. he was cruising some diners for some votes but acknowledged he was cooking up some mischief. he basically told me, wolf, he's trying to appeal to conservative democrats that he'd like to have in his camp come this fall. here's what he had to say. >> even though the romney campaign says it was a dirty trick, what's your response to that? >> i see. so when he goes out and recruits 53% of the voters in new hampshire that are not republicans that's okay. an when he goes out and recruits folks who aren't republicans that's all right. who aren't going to be the decisive votes in the election. but when i go out and have a message of growth and opportunity instead of running negative ads or running robo calls with my voice from four years ago, that's not a dirty trick? and i didn't complain about it. i don't complain. you know what? i'm a big guy. >> reporter: so rick santorum says he's a big guy, he can take the heat. just to put a couple of those comments he made into context, he talked about 53% of people in new hampshire not being republican voters in that new hampshire primary voting for mitt romney. according to our cnn exit polling it was actually 51%. so i want to correct that for the record. voters who are not republicans who voted for mitt romney in that primary. the romney campaign has fired back very sharply on that front saying that no, they won among republicans in that primary. so a little bit of relitigating that new hampshire primary. one last thing, i talked to john braybender senior strategist for the santorum campaign about the mitt romney complaint earlier today that if rick santorum wins this race it will be tainted because democrats crossed over and helped him win. he says that sounds like the comments of a sore looser, wolf? >> jim acosta at grand rapids waiting at the santorum head quarters. anderson, enormously high stakes tonight for these candidates. >> a lot of big states indeed. let's get some words from our strategist, political contributors on the democratic side and republican as well. tonight, paul, what are you expecting? >> >> who'd have thought that michigan would even be close? if you'd looked at this a year ago you'd say romney is the son of the very popular beloved three-term former governor and he's fighting for his life. >> does santorum's talk about social issues help him in michigan? >> i don't think so. i think romney is right voters want to hear about the economy. we'll see how the results come in. i thought that was a distraction. i thought santorum was better when he talked about his grandfather was a coal miner and democratic roots. >> i agree with paul. even the fact we're talking about if romney wins tonight is a loss for him, both tonight as well as in the general. i think that what he has had to do in order to make sure he wins michigan is going to be indicative of a party with tunnel vision, meaning that they are so focused on the small particulars of the pieces they need to get to win the nomination that we're going to be losing the key coalitions for the general election. >> the same question i asked paul, do you think it helps him or hurts him in michigan talking about the social issues? >> i think it ultimately hurt him because he's not expanding his base of voters either. >> both democrats say it hurts. ari fleischer? >> arizona votes as well. mitt romney is going to take all the votes in arizona because it's basically uncontested, all the votes are winner takes all. as far as michigan i think it was a small net for rick santorum that energize add small part of the electorate that wouldn't have shown up, put him in contention with mitt romney's state. beyond michigan it's a problem. if he becomes the general election candidate he's going to have to address his issue with women and suburban voters. >> i think it's a small net plus. he can't afford a lot more small net pluses for rick santorum. at best it's a horse race. >> how much is that about his performance in the last debate? >> i think a lot was his performance in the last debate because it has echoed the campaign. the campaign has been about social issues. santorum has been defending himself on social issues as opposed to, hey, the economy is on fire. can anybody put the fire out? that's what he he should have been talking about. >> he was pointing at reporters and saying you guys keep asking me about social issues. >> there's a rule, though. reporters get to ask whatever they want. candidates actually get to give the answers. he has run a disciplined campaign, that's one of your jobs to help steer your boat and not let the news media do it for you. it's one of the tests of being president. >> i used to stand add a podium and have to take questions from reporters. and there's no question that the things i say, the things rick santorum says lead to questions. so when he brought up social issues in the manner in which he brought it up, provocative way challenging the president's theology, he invited this on himself. >> his focus on social issues i think will help to get democrats out to vote for him for sure. >> he sets this fire and then he says you're complaining about the heat. he says that president kennedy's speech to the greater minnis tear yal association made him want to throw up. >> now he says he regrets that. >> mild nausea. he said if we send our kids to college we're snobs. crazy stuff. >> beginning of this race when people thought mitt romney might not be a strong candidate. oh, my heavens, rick perry is going to come in and be this great conservative hope. the guy who has turned into that now, rick perry, is rick santorum. and he has become that conservative threat to romney. >> it's going to be fascinating tonight. we'll be watching, john. anderson, michigan is so close the winner could be determined by that's right, democrats. mitt romney says rick santorum is using dirty tricks against him. reaction from the campaign and fresh information from our exit polls about how many democrats are voting in what is supposed to be michigan's republican primary. intelligence that is helping business rethink how to do business. in here, inventory can be taught to learn. ♪ in here, machines have a voice... ♪ [ male announcer ] in here, medical history follows you... even when you're away from home. it's the at&t network -- a network of possibilities, creating and integrating solutions, helping business, and the world...work. rethink possible. helping business, and the world...work. there's another way litter box dust:e purina tidy cats. our premium litters now work harder to help neutralize odors in multiple cat homes. purina tidy cats. keep your home smelling like home. welcome back to our continued coverage. going to be a very bbig night. want to find out when we may be able to make some sort of projection about who is going to win tonight, both in the state of michigan and also in arizona. mark, do we have any idea what kind of timetable we're looking at? >> we've had pretty late nights so far in season. let's start with arizona. no earlier than 10:00 tonight would be the earliest. >> 10:00 eastern time. >> 10:00 eastern time. that we could actually make a prediction. the reason why is that the polls in arizona close at 9:00 eastern time. the state will not release its data until 10:00 eastern time. so that's out west. here in michigan which we're really focusing on right now because it's the state that everyone this mitt romney has to win, it's different. the poll closing times are broken up between central and eastern time. no earlier than 9:00 eastern time could we possibly call this race. if you look at early polling, it is so tight right now this could be a very late night. >> in terms of exit poll information what kind of timetable for that? >> we're starting to get poll information now. it's early numbers right now and comes in waves. we're starting to look at data right now. it helps us build the narrative right now but doesn't give the whole story. >> when we make that projection we do it based on some of the exit polls as well as votes tallied. >> we create the, it poll data and real vote, tie it all up put it back in a big knot. >> 9:00 possibly michigan, no earlier than 10:00 eastern time arizona. >> in arizona. but michigan could be later than arizona. who knows? >> john, a lot to watch for tonight. a lot to watch for. we're going to look at arizona but most of the attention has been on michigan. it's one of the largest, big industrial state. a lot of economic pain over the last decade. what are we looking for tonight as we watch republicans voting in michigan? let's look at some of the important demographics. tea party support. we want to see who's getting the tea party vote. the darker the area the higher percentage of tea party supporters. you see some tea party support north of detroit in the suburban, blue-collar, rural areas in the south and western part of the state. also up here in the upper peninsula. evangelical voters you see again the darker the area the higher percentage of evangelical voters. you watch all that play out. if you're rick santorum you want to do well in these conservative rural areas and down here where we see higher pockets of evangelical support. we'll watch for that tonight. one of the things visually if you want to get a look at the state, this is one of the few states you will go to in this cycle where the unemployment rate has actually gone down a bit. this is 2009 unemployment, the darker the area the higher the unemployment rate. well let me bring this one back up now and show you the current unemployment rate. not quite as dark down in here. again still in painful economic times. but michigan for the longest time was the highest unemployment by state in the country. nevada now has that distension. that distinction. remember. this remember bush v. gore, the conversation about the electoral college? it is possible tonight that one candidate wins the popular vote state-wide but doesn't get the majority of the delegates. why? in arizona you win the state you get all the delegates. in michigan the delegates are awarded by congressional district. two delegates for each of the 14 congressional districts. we have to go race by race district by district. 14 congressional districts in the state. a half dozen right down in here. a lot of these congressional districts at play tonight are held by democrats. in the detroit area particularly, democratic seats, not a lot of republican voters. that's one of the places we will see if there's what i'll call democratic mischief in the republican primary. even as the votes come in tonight remember, if one candidate opens up a lead in the state-wide vote that doesn't mean that same candidate will get the bulk of the delegates. we have to work through maps, county by county, congressional district by congressional district to figure that out. rick santorum and mitt romney are accusing each other of cheap shots, dirty tricks. we'll take a look at both campaigns over the last 48 hours. and a democrat tells us why he decided to vote in the republican presidential primary today in michigan. >> announcer: this is the day. the day that we say to the world of identity thieves "enough." we're lifelock, and we believe you have the right to live free from the fear of identity theft. our pledge to you? 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