first to our brand new cnn orc polls. this is issue number one, the economy. and a surprising jump in the number of americans who believe the economy will eventually get better. take a look at this. when asked about what economic conditions will be like next year, 60% now say they believe they will be good compared to only 39% who say conditions will be poorer. last fall when we asked the same question, those numbers were very different indeed. only 39% saying things would get better in the year to come. we sent our own joe johns to the key battleground state of ohio for a closer look at these new numbers. joe is joining us now from his old hometown of columbus, ohio. what's going on there, joe? >> reporter: that's right, wolf. well, things are starting to look better here in the buckeye state, but i have to tell you that cnn orc poll indicates that nationwide one thing is clear, the number one issue on voters' minds happens to be jobs and the economy. the november election may come down to a key question, which candidate is better able to handle the economy? a brand new cnn orc national poll suggests voters haven't made up their minds. president obama and republican mitt romney are in a dead heat well within the margin of error. >> what a president believes matters. >> reporter: today the obama campaign rolled out another ad in crucial swing states like riegtd here in ohio calling romney an outsourcer during his time running bane capital. it's part of a strategy to erode one of romney's key strengths. so far our polling shows independent voters crucial in this election prefer the presumptivive republican nominee on the economy by 11 points. part of the sale the obama campaign needs to make especially isn't the seven key toss up states is that the economy is getting better or that stagnation isn't their fault. >> we've added millions and millions of jobs and the economy is moving in the right direction. not fast enough. if congress had passed the proposals the president submitted, there would be a million more jobs today. that's what we ought to be doing. >> of course the blame goes both ways. republican congressman pat teaberry points his finger right back at the white house. >> he wants to write a check we can't afford, by the way, we're borrowing 40 cents of every dollar. people are starting to understand that. >> our poll suggests voters nationwide are not very happy right now. economic conditions are poor versus 27% say conditions are good. that suggests awareness of economic improvement hasn't sunk in especially in states like ohio where the unemployment rate has gone down almost a full point in the last year. just today ohio's governor held a conference call to spread the good news. >> we're seeing improvements in our unemployment. we have the people of ohio have created 94,300 jobs. that makes us fourth in the country and first in the midwest. >> reporter: but our survey shows optimism is coming back next year. something that could give obama's team optimism as well. 60% said economic conditions would be good in 2013. that's the reverse of where it was last year. congressman tiberi sees the benefit going to republican governors rather than the white house. >> overall whatever love there is is being directed more toward the state than the federal government in washington, d.c. >> reporter: and this is a very important week in the buckeye state as it turns out president obama expected to be here both thursday and friday. and the unemployment numbers for the month of june also kpmted to come out at the end of the week. wolf. >> very important indeed. of course where you are, ohio, we all remember no republican has won the white house without capturing ohio. that's going to be a fierce battle in the buckeye state. thanks, joe. with the struggling economy on so many voters' minds and a fierce presidential election battle underway, it doesn't go unnoticed when the candidates go away on vacation even during a holiday week. here's a video, by the way, that's generating some buzz. it's mitt romney and his wife on a jet ski during their family vacation this week in new hampshire. look at that. our white house correspondent, dan lothian, is joining us now to take a closer look at the politics of presidential vacations. he's joining us now from the white house. always a difficult decision in an election year for a president seeking re-election or for a challenger to decide where they want to go on vacation. >> reporter: you are correct. there have been a lot of speculation about whether the president, the first family, would return to martha's vineyard. but a senior administration official telling me they will not return to martha's vineyard this summer. they'll take shorter trips. unclear where those will take place. we have to look back to former president bill clinton. he used to vacation on martha's vineyard quite frequently. in his re-election year instead went to wyoming. richard covered reagan, bushes and clinton and said it would have been a tricky situation for president obama to return to martha's vineyard. a place known as a playground for the wealthy, for the famous, at a time bhen the president is trying to paint his opponent as an out of touch elitist. >> they can be double-edged swords. vacationing in a time when things aren't good. doesn't look good to the public. you have to be careful of the image you project. >> reporter: mitt romney is making no changes to his tradition. he's up in new hampshire on a lake at their expensive vacation home there on the water with his wife. and also they do what we're told are olympic games family-style. saying this is really an effort by romney to sort of showcase the fact that he's a family man, something that can resonate with the voters. >> dan, quick question, these vacation plans, they occasionally can backfire for a president, for a challenger, if you will. what are you hearing? what are you seeing about that? >> that's right. just have to look back to 2004. remember john kerry when he was off nantucket on a wind surfer, a wind sail, he was having fun, something that seemingly harmless, but it was during the republican convention. and republicans pounced on that because they used it to play into this narrative that he was a flip-flopper, that he could shift with the wind. so they made that video of him out there on that wind surfer as sort of part of their narrative that he changes on the issues. and it was a big blunder for him. certainly something he would have taken back after the fact, wolf. >> dan lothian, good point. thanks very much. let's get more on this what's going on. joining us our cnn contributor ryan lizza. these are never easy conditions for a president or a candidate, ryan, is it? >> no. it's not. wolf, remember in the '90s when bill clinton actually has dick morris poll where he should go on vacation. it became such a fraught issue for president clinton. on the comparison with kerry and romney, on the one hand it's very similar. two men of great wealth doing this sort of expensive water sports. the thing with kerry, that only became an issue when they used the wind surfing as an advertisement to get at this attack on kerry that he didn't have any core convictions and he was a flip-flopper. it was a devastating ad watching kerry go back and forth. just from the video you've shown, i don't know if that youtube clip of romney jet skiing quite has the same impact. you know, it might. there's obviously a line of attack that obama and democrats have been going after romney on as a man of wealth and someone who is out of touch with average americans. you know, to the extent that jet skiing on a lake at your expensive summer home plays into that. perhaps it's somewhat damaging for romney. but i don't know. i tend to think this is not a major problem for romney. >> yeah. i always thought let these guys -- they work hard, let them vacation wherever they want with their families. take a few days off. recharge their batteries. when i was a white house correspondent in the '90s, in '96 when bill clinton was vacationing, they decided in '96 martha vineyard's not the place. they went to wyoming instead. i went out there. you're correct, dick morris was doing some pollings things. get away from martha's vineyard. wyoming might be a better place. which raises the question, we don't know yet other than he's not going to martha's vineyard where the president will spend his vacation this summer. my gut tells me it might be in one of those battleground states. maybe i'm overreaching. >> virginia's nice this time of year. ohio is very nice. las vegas i understand has a lot of entertaining options. >> colorado. >> colorado's beautiful. you know, maybe stay away from aspen. to be honest, i think it's almost worse when you spend a vacation at martha's vineyard for a few years and then in the election year say, oh, the optics of that aren't good. i kind of like the fact romney's doing what he's always done going to places he's always been, for better or worse, that's who he is. voters -- authenticity's always the best way to go if you're a politician. >> i agree completely. if the obama family likes martha's vineyard, go back to martha's vineyard and enjoy a little time off with the girls and have some fun. i agree authenticity is very important. he winds up in one of those battleground states. it's nice to visit those battleground states, but it may not feel as genuine as he probably would like. that's just me and you. and we have obviously no say. >> i agree. >> in what the obama family decides to do. ryan, thanks very much. >> thanks, wolf. crews are fighting the colorado wildfires and they're going high-tech. >> my main piece of equipment is this laptop. >> you're going to find out why a computer can be just as important as a hose in battling those wildfires. and the united states told pakistan it's sorry today. one of my guests this hour thinks it should have never happened in the first place what's going on. standby. and a frustrated customer trashes a mobile phone store. you're going to find out what set him off. ♪ [ male announcer ] ok, so you're no marathon man. but thanks to the htc one x from at&t, with its built in beats audio, every note sounds amazingly clear. ...making it easy to get lost in the music... and, well... rio vista?!! [ male announcer ] ...lost. introducing the musically enhanced htc one x from at&t. rethink possible. test test test test test test test test whoa! nobody insures more bikes than progressive. do you guys ride? well... no. sometimes, yeah. yes. well, if you know anybody else who also rides, send them here -- we got great coverage. it's not like bikers love their bikes more than life itself. i doubt anyone will even notice. leading the pack in motorcycle insurance. now, that's progressive. call or click today. aarrggh! residents in colorado are cheering firefighters on as they make gains in an agonizing struggle to put out the raging wildfires. but they're warning it still could be mid-july before most of the destructive inferno is fully under control. martin savage got a behind-the-scenes look at one of the critical tools being used in this battle. we're not talking about water or shovels, we're talking about a computer. >> reporter: it's morning at the base camp of the waldo canyon fire. close to 1,500 wild and firefighters get up and head out. as they leave, they pass a reminder of what's at stake. [ cheers and applause ] >> reporter: residents come to cheer and thank these men and women who daily go out and risk their lives to try to save their town. the fire crews and hot shot teams fight the fire with shovels and hoses. while plains and helicopters drop water or fire retardant. when the fires like this one become monsters covering thousands of acres, there are never enough people or planes. last tuesday's fire storm demonstrated it can be devastating and imperfect work. but it's the way wildfires have been fought for decades. rick stratton is changing that. middle school in colorado springs is the fire command center. school's out for the summer, so he and his team have taken over mrs. wilson's science class, which seems only appropriate because what he's doing is cutting-edge and until very recently unthinkable. he can predict where the fire will be not tomorrow, but in five days, ten days even 21 days. the benefit is obvious. if you know where the fire is going, then you can strategically place your limited resources to stop it. eight years ago he became part of a team that worked to come up with a computer program that would predict the fire's future. he's a self-professed fire nerd. >> it's high-tech and it's cool, man. >> reporter: fires are propelled by three basic things, weather, fool and topography. sounds simple, but just one look at a computer map of the winds interacting in the mountains and you can see just how complicated it gets, which is why he doesn't work alone. there's julia ruterford, she studies the weather. wind shifts kill fire crews. and predicting them is her job. >> if i see anything on the radar, i'll let you guys know as well. have a very safe day out there. >> reporter: when did the fire burn through here? >> about four or five days ago. >> reporter: ruddy is also part of the team. he sets up r.a.w.s. these observers constantly update conditions even as the fire burns all around. with a few keypunches, he gets the station to talk to me. >> air temperature 71.5 degrees. >> reporter: then there's the fuel technician. she takes samples of trees, bushes and grass near the fire and is reminded of the urgency when a giant helicopter hovers almost overhead and drops water on a sudden blaze nearby. at a lab she dries and analyzes the samples to see how quickly each will burn. then there's 6'5", nate. >> the whole time we're walking we're taking a log. >> reporter: it's his job to record and photograph where the fire's already been. he often works alone hiking miles from the nearest road. stratton himself goes to the field following the fire from the ground. then he takes me with him to look at the fire from the air. he takes all of the information from julia, rudy, ashley, nate and others and punches it into the computer. the end result is a color-coded map to tell firefighters with varying degrees of probability where the fire is headed and when it will get there. and it works. >> we planned based on what this was telling us. it's going to go this way. then we came in here. it's still pretty hot in here, but it's holding. and we're going to catch it here. like all firefighters here, he's exhausted. when i asked what keeps him going, he suddenly forgets the data and talks in very human terms about what he saw when he fought on the line. >> i've witnessed firsthand people coming to their destroyed home and the agony. it's probably the sickest i've ever felt in my life hearing cries and seeing their sorrow. >> reporter: for stratton, there are no cheering crowds, but he is every bit a wildland firefighter who uses a laptop instead of a shovel. wolf, there is good news to report. the fire is now 70% contained. they still have some way to go. they hope to have it fully contained by this weekend. more good news, rain, substantial rain, expected thursday and friday. it's all welcomed. >> hope it pours out there. they need the water. we keep seeing, martin, awful pictures of homes destroyed. are you getting a better sense of how bad the damage actually has been? >> reporter: yeah. 350 homes were lost. and it is as well as lives a terrible, terrible tragedy. but they say when they watched the firestorm sweep in a week ago today, they thought the toll was going to be much higher. in fact, they feared as many as 1,000 homes might have been lost. 350 is not a good figure, but it's a lot better than they originally feared, wolf. >> could have been even worse. all right. martin, thanks very much. this note to our viewers in our next hour we're going to take you behind the fire lines with flames whipping around the firefighters. you're going to see the unbelievable images that made them shed tears as they dug in against the destruction. that's coming up here in "the situation room" in our next hour. the u.s. certainly paid a huge price in both blood and money to liberate iraq from saddam hussain. we're about to talk with a rising star in the republican party who is deeply worried all of it may have been to waste. what's going on? we're going to find out what set off some monumental temper tantrum as well. something that may have happened to you? standby for that. to our viewers, remember, you're in "the situation room." we've added a brand new 6:00 p.m. eastern hour as well. that's a third full hour live news you need to know right here in "the situation room." nature valley trail mix bars are made with real ingredients you can see. like whole roasted nuts, chewy granola, and real fruit. nature valley trail mix bars. 100% natural. 100% delicious. [ male announcer ] even if you think you can live with your old mattress why not talk to one of the six million people who've switched to the most highly recommended bed in america? it's not a sealy, a simmons, or a serta. did you know there's a tempur-pedic for everybody? tempur-pedic beds now come in soft, firm, and everything in between. these are real tempur-pedic owners. tempur-pedic brand owners are more satisfied than owners of any traditional mattress brand. and now through july 8th is the perfect time to buy. save up to $200 during our mattress set savings event and up to $600 on tempur-cloud supreme. also get 0% apr financing with up to 5 years to pay on qualified purchases. to learn more, visit tempurpedic.com. don't wait -- 5-year special financing mattress set savings event and tempur-cloud supreme savings end july 8th. tempur-pedic -- the most highly recommended bed in america. now that u.s. troops are out of iraq, there's also been a very sharp increase in violence. lisa sylvester's monitoring that and some other top stories in "the situation room" right now. lisa, what's going on? >> hi there, wolf. at least 37 people died in a series of bomb blasts across iraq today. 30 came when a truck packed with explosives at a vegetable market in a city south of baghdad. at least 100 people were wounded in that attack. today's bombings mostly stargted shiite areas and iraqi security forces. even though power company repair crews are working around the clock, just under 1.5 million people are coping through their fourth day without electricity. a ferocious storm friday night knocked down trees and power lines across 11 states in the district of columbia. folks are packed into libraries to cool off as well as to charge their phones and their laptops. and admit it, we've all had bad days. there may have been times when you felt like doing this. over the weekend in manchester, england, a frustrated man who says he was denied a refund trashed a t-mobile store tearing down displays and spraying the place with a fire extinguisher. the man's contract clearly stated he wasn't due a refund. "the andy griffith" show, starring andy griffith. >> actor and comedian andy griffith died today. if you are of a certain age or watched a lot of re-runs on cable while you were growing up, characters from his 1960s show are instantly recognizable. griffith, also played "matlock" received presidential medal of freedom in 2005. andy griffith was 86 years old. wolf. >> i loved growing up with andy griffith. great, great, great actor. sorry to see him go. our condolences to his family. he certainly left his mark on our culture and our entertainment here in the united states. >> brings back a lot of memories just hearing that theme song. i'm sure that's true for a lot of our viewers, wolf. >> certainly. thank you for that, lisa. new concerns meanwhile the united s