Transcripts For CNNW World Business Today 20111102 : vimarsa

CNNW World Business Today November 2, 2011



ee electr electrocutions are mostly to blame for deaths. health officials say malaria could compound the disaster in the coming weeks. the floods are also taking a financial toll. finance ministry estimates the waters have caused $6 billion in damage. two pakistani cricketers have been found guilty of conspiracy to accept corrupt payments and conspiracy to cheat. the two players threw parts of last year's test match between england and pakistan. sentencing is wednesday. both players could spend up to seven years in prison. there may be new trouble at japan's crippled nuclear plant. tepco says it found signs that it may have started in a nuclear reactor. they're trying to prevent any reactions. those are the headlines from cnn, the world's news leader. "world business today" starts now. the greek cabinet endorses a referendum on the eu bailout sending investors into a tailspin. this wednesday, george papandreou faces a crucial vote in parliament. will the greek p.m. survive that vote, and can greece really afford the leave the euro behind? these are our top stories. you're watching "world business today." hello, i'm felicia taylor at cnn in london. the scene is set for a showdown. in one corner, eu leaders still reeling from the shock of an eu bailout. in the other, george papandreou needs support to secure his political future and get greek back to work as he pushes ahead with painful austerity measures. investors were certainly rattled by the developments in greece. asia-pacific stock markets continued their slide. also adding to the market jitters. japan's nikkei was dragged down by the automakers such as toyota and honda which both reported lower u.s. sales in october. the stronger yen also means that japanese expects are less competitive as auto sector stocks were off 3% to 6%. hang seng is up about 2%, the shanghai composite up about one-third. they both recovered to finish higher in the session and australia down after significant drops in mining stocks. japanese electronics giant sony also released earnings for fiscal second quarter. the news, though, not happy. a net loss of 27 billion yen, that's about $345 million. the company blames lower lcd tv sales and of course that stronger yen that i just mentioned. sony was late to come to the market and continues to lag behind samsung and lg. sony's tv business is forecast to lose money again in march, marking the eighth straight year in the red. the results came out after the market closed. sony shares finished the session more than 3.5% lower. the european markets also taking a beating on wednesday pretty much across the board. germany and france were hardest hit, losing about 5%. futures indicating a stronger open and indeed that's what we'll be seeing. the main european indices after heavy losses on tuesday. some are calling this a dead-cat bounce. literally, the translation is even a dead cat from a high enough level can bounce off of its lows. and that's exactly what we're seeing is the markets are open just a few minutes ago, already beginning to pick up. in london, the ftse up about 0.5%. the cac up over 1%. and the zurich up. we also want to show you how the stock markets in italy and greece have opened wednesday. both of their major indices tumbled almost 7%. let's take a look. things looking still quite dismal in athens. off about 7%. the dax -- excuse me, the ftse in italy up about 1.3%. the euro has recovered ground gensz the dollar after ordering. it's at 1.37, and against the british pound, it's at 1.16 and against the yen at 107. let's return to our main story, and that is in greece where if the prime minister gets his way, the public is going to decide whether to accept that bailout deal that was hashed out at last week's crisis summit in brussels. cnn's jim boulden has been following developments in athens. jim, what's the mood there now? are people as confused about what's going to take place with this referendum? >> reporter: well, i don't think people here expected mr. papandreou to make such a public announcement about the referendum. it's just that it caught everyone really off guard certainly after we thought that all the big decisions had been made in brussels last week. the interesting thing really is is that now it doesn't even have to be january, it could be december. remember, the decisions made in brussels, there still have to be things worked out. it's just that the big picture was decided. and while it was dramatic, there was not a lot of detail, and that could take several months. i think the thought was for greece to vote on something, that would happen in january after the greek christmas. but there was talk yesterday it could even be moved up to december if everything was lined up. really surprising, of course, and people here very much divided i have to say. you get a sense that some people think it's great that they get a choice finally to vote on what's going on. others say you're the politician. you should be the one making decisions. it's on your head, the tough austerity measures you pushed through and any agreement you make with the imf and it should be the politicians who make that decision, not the people on the streets. a very divided thought. >> jim, it's interesting because they haven't had a referendum since the 1970s. i mean, this is sort of 25, 30 years later that they get the opportunity to have some sort of a say in what's going to happen in their own government. is there any sense of what the question is going to be? because that seems to be the crux of the argument. what will the question be posed to the people and how significant is that? >> reporter: oh, it's very significant. you get the sense that the question is, do you want to be in the euro or not? it's that simple. and, of course, one person said, it's euro or drocma. it's the question about everything that's been decided and everything in the euro, do you really want to stay in the euro? there's really no way to leave the euro, but it's so fundamental, they wouldn't be able to sort of vote on all the little details. so many people would probably find themselves having to vote yes for the referendum even if they don't like the government because they would be fearful of what would come next. the working wi iwording will bed the timing could be critical depending on how much the details are known by the greek people at that time, felicia. >> jim, standing from the sidelines, obviously, which is what i'm doing over here since you're there in athens, this is clearly a political move, though, for papandreou. how much of a gamble has this man taken in his political career? and what could be the fallout if he doesn't get a yes vote on this referendum? >> reporter: well, as we landed overnight, there was discussions. there were debates that the cabinet was meeting. there was thought, just thought, that maybe the government would collapse overnight, which it did not. some people in the markets were looking for that. it was such an unpopular move by mr. papandreou and such a high-risk move that maybe this was his exit strategy and this would be the way he would leave power at least temporarily. this could come at any time. will this bring the government down? it has the majority of two. they did lose one of their mps yesterday who defected from the coalition. could it bring it down before friday? we have another vote in parliament on friday whether to back the government. that is coming forward as well. we'll have to see if he can survive that along with everything else. and then the decision after that is would the referendum still have to take place? i'm pushing ahead a little bit, but the markets have to think about these things because all of these possibilities are out there. >> yeah, things are on te tendhooks. jim boulden in athens, thank you. the greek government says that that referendum will happen as soon as possible. we've heard dates in january, possibly now in december, but it hasn't actually set a firm date yet. several things have to happen first. prime minister papandreou will face the ire of the german chancellor and french president at an emergency meeting today. on friday, his government will face a confidence vote in parliament. the government expects to win that vote, but some members of mr. papandreou's party are strongly opposed. finally, the details of the bailout agreed in brussels last week. a greek government spokesman says the deal will have to be clear before the greek people can vote on whether to accept it or reject it. even if papandreou manages to keep his job after that confidence vote, the referendum could prus a no vote on the debt deal. a little earlier our max foster asked harvard economics professor ken rogoff what might physical if that happen follow if that happens. >> it's clearly in bankruptcy already, but it might really catalyze into something more disorderly very, very fast as opposed to over another year or two. it's hard to know what direction it will go. certainly there's a distinct possibility that over the longer term greece will end up out of the euro back on the drogma. >> what impact would that have on europe and the rest of the world? >> you know, the big question is where is the firewall? where is germany going to draw the line? are they going to protect italy and spain in a? are they going to protect the banking system? so far their strategy is to say everybody's fine. they've even gone to absurd lengths to call the 50% write-down forced on greek debtholders voluntary in order to claim no one's being forced to do anything. they don't really have a clear plan of where to draw the line. that's the big problem in europe today. they've got to figure that out. and then ultimately, you need, i think, a new constitution. the system does not work. >> so what would happen if greece actually were to start to exit the euro zone? the big question is, i mean, this wasn't something that the euro leaders thought about back when, you know, ten years ago they organized the euro zone because naturally nobody thought ten years later that anybody would be trying to exit. so the question is, is it actually legal for a country to do this? and the answer is technically it's not legal because that playbook hasn't been written yet. we're going to watch the eu leaders discuss whether and how a country could possibly do that. it's definitely going to be an unprecedenteded event. so we'll watch the euro zone, decide whether or not it's of anybody's volition to do something like that, or if they can be expelled by others. the one thing that is certain, that all 17 member countries would have to agree to watch somebody to do this. the other question is how expensive will this be? we'll have to watch, you know, member countries print their new currency. for instance, this is the drogma. they would have to start printing currencies once again as they get out of the euro. that would be extraordinarily expensive. would also have a new banking systems, new atms, new individual banks. if you look at whether or not people are being paid in drogmas, let's say, for instance, they have a mortgage that was being paid off in euros. what's the disparity between that and where's the equity value between the two currencies? we don't really know what it would be valued at against the euro. that would be very difficult for consumers and individuals to have to face. the other thing that would be interesting to watch is right now we have what's called the european central bank. and that sets interest rates for the entire euro zone. if one of the member countries would have to be disbanded, they would have their own individual central bank. that, too, would become extraordinarily expensive. we've already heard about the esfs and having shored that up for over $1 trillion. this would cost even more to have to set up these individual banks amongst the member countries. so clearly this process is going to be extraordinarily expensive and very difficult for the member leaders to have to figure out how the process is going to work. coming up on "world business today," we're going to take you to italy. in a country that once em bodes la dolce vita, the mood is sour. we also visit germany following the surprise referendum. stay with cnn. if you've just signed up for medicare or will soon, there's no time like the present to consider all your health insurance options. does medicare alone meet your needs? 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one of the things that's going to be happening today is that angela merkel and nicolas sarkozy and members are going to meet with prime minister papandreou, and they are obviously going to ask him very tough questions. one of the things that both she and sarkozy have made absolutely clear is that they fully expect that all of the things that were put forward at that euro zone summit about a week ago are all going to be implemented. and you can see this morning more than 24 hours removed from the first sort of announcement by george papandreou that political is starting to get to a state where it's sort of working with the situation, where whether or not this referendum is going to go forward. they're going to keep implementing the things that were debated at that euro zone summit about a week ago. they say the first thing is they want to come up with a timetable. one of the things we have to keep in mind about merkel is that yes, she was probably very surprised by what happened, but she's also a very seasoned euro zone politician. i mean, there's many people in germany who believe that germany actually voted no on the no-fly zone resolution in libya because merkel feared that she would lose the regional election. certainly yes, she was surprised by what she heard, but she's probably heard worse things in her life, felicia. >> i'm sure she has, fred, that's great. as you said, she is a seasoned politician. and let's face it. i mean, papandreou needs the support of his populist in order to get re-elected again. we might see surprise elections. perhaps -- and i'm giving himg the benefit of the doubt -- perhaps he's saying, listen, trust me, i know what i'm doing. i can ask the right question and get a yes vote to get the populous behind me, correct? >> reporter: that's something that they're hoping. one of the things we also have to keep in mind is the germans are averse to a referendum. there's not very much experience with that in germany. the germans are taken aback by what they heard of this whole deal which, of course, was a very complicated one, one that was negotiated for a very long time and one that really did carry the handwriting of the german government, of angela merkel on it. many people here in germany believe that was the best they were going to get. seeing all of that called into question is certainly something that did take many people here in germany aback. but it seems as though now again 24 hours removed that they are coming to terms with the situation and realizing that they're going to have to work with the situation any way that the greek people decide. felic felicia? >> frederick pleitgen taking a look at the german perspective. the latest twist hasn't done much for prospects in an economic recovery. a recovery is what's needed if europe is to find any jobs for its growing army of unemployed youth. paula is finding out how young people are coping with a new reality that seems bleaker than ever. >> reporter: the cliche is so well worn, even italians around buying it anymore. la dolce vita, the good life. it may be as italian as pizza and pasta, but it's been spoiled. and many young italians now believe it will never apply to their lives. >> saving for the future, and we are very afraid for the future. >> reporter: youth unemployment in italy is running at about 25% amid a euro crisis that defines this generation's formative years while their parents and grandparents worry if they can hold on to their generous pensions and government benefits. many young italians are looking for an unprecedented political compromise that would compromise what is a greing generational rift. >> translator: we want to work, but they won't let us. we just don't have the opportunities. >> reporter: the so-called solutions on the table are far from perfect. one of them, raising the retirement age to save money would actually keep more of these professionals in their jobs longer. >> this looks contradictory because we could reduce our pensions if we postpone retirement, but at the same time, this will block the labor market. >> reporter: that block could translate into higher unemployment for the young. something even older generations realize cannot be allowed to continue. which brings us back to that dolce vita. young italians may not be living it, but many seem oblivious to the fact that it's up to them to build the country's economic future. what has been taken for granted in italy for so many years, a kind of family bargain may have to be called off as the euro crisis takes a swipe at both young and old in italy. paula newton, cnn, rome. it's hard to imagine spending years getting a higher education, but yet the jobs just aren't there. well, the stock markets also remain volatile. inflation is raising its ugly head, and housing prices are still pretty depressed. so where can you find double-digit gains? wealthy investors have artful ways to increase their balance sheets. we'll explain after the break. the call for a referendum in gres came out of the blue, sent markets in a tailspin straight into the red. it's another reminder about how much uncertainty there is in the marketplace and how news driven many of the conventional investment vehicles are rig

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