benjamin netanyahu is now expected to make key decisions about the gaza war. french footballer kylian mbappe has said "extremists are at the gates of power" as campaigning for parliaments elections kicks off in france. polls suggest that marine le pen�*s group, the far—right party national rally, could obtain a majority for the first time in its history. russia continues its offensive in ukraine — as its troops make advances around kharkiv, second largest city in the country. although the army has been keeping them at bay, president zelensky has warned the army desperately needs to enlist more troops, to hold the line and push russia back. the head of nato says at least 20 member countries will spend more than 2% of their income on defence this year, more than double the number of five years ago. jens stoltenberg was speaking in washington ahead of talks with president biden. good evening. nigel farage and reform uk have launched their election manifesto today, although party leader insists their "offer" to the nation should be called a "contract" to distinguish it from the manifestos of other parties, which mr farage says are never fulfilled. we are going through a breakdown of trust in politics where manifestos, one after another, can keep making the same promises, and no—one believes now, frankly, a word that they say, which is why today specifically is not a manifesto launch. because if i say to you "manifesto", your immediate word association is "lie", and that is, i think, wholly unsurprising. buoyed by the yougov poll that showed reform leading the tories, farage told the today programme the morning his plan this election is to "establish a bridgehead" in parliament with however many mps they can send to westminster, that will allow him this next five to build a "big national campaigning movement around the country". take a listen to this exchange with my college, justine webb. if there were to be an election, then, in 2029, the next election after this one, you would be the head of that. would that mean that you would be vying at that election to be prime minister? yes, absolutely. i think the disconnect between the labour and conservative westminster—based parties and the country, the thoughts, hopes and aspirations of ordinary people, are so far apart. i think ithinki i think ijust called him justine, it is most definitelyjustin. four you to go as you had said that wearing the pin the ritz prison of france, people might have scoffed at you. i france, people might have scoffed at ou. ~' , france, people might have scoffed at ou. " , france, people might have scoffed at ou. ~ , ., france, people might have scoffed at ou. ~ , . you. i think it is said to say that the media _ you. i think it is said to say that the media and _ you. i think it is said to say that the media and put _ you. i think it is said to say that the media and put the - you. i think it is said to say that the media and put the media i you. i think it is said to say that i the media and put the media and punditry in this country have spent many years laughing at nigel farage, and he has proved us wrong time again, so i am very much in the camp of thinking that nigel farage should be listened to these days. but he has a heck of a job on his hands, a first past the post voting system that has been a font on his side for most of his life which isn't changing any time soon. even if reform do when two or three seats in a selection, it is still very hard to build from that, and the tories will presumably come back resurgent from this election. i wouldn't hold my breath for nigel farage leading the opposition to the prime minister, but you can't count anything out. minister, but you can't count anything out-— minister, but you can't count an hint out. . . anything out. the important caveat is that voucher _ anything out. the important caveat is that voucher does _ anything out. the important caveat is that voucher does not _ anything out. the important caveat| is that voucher does not necessarily equal seats. is that voucher does not necessarily equalseats. i'mjust is that voucher does not necessarily equal seats. i'm just back from brussels, that is a pattern emerging throughout europe, in a third of the eu countries, it is the upstarts that have embarrassed the old guard. as the old guard tries to the balance, it is shifting further to the right. nigel farage is playing a big role in this election? he certainly — big role in this election? he certainly is. _ big role in this election? he certainly is. part of the reason why we have _ certainly is. part of the reason why we have not— certainly is. part of the reason why we have not had that rise of papuiism _ we have not had that rise of populism that we have seen on the continent _ populism that we have seen on the continent is — populism that we have seen on the continent is because we have brexit, we scratch _ continent is because we have brexit, we scratch that each in 2016 when the public, — we scratch that each in 2016 when the public, to the great surprise of the public, to the great surprise of the establishment and political class, — the establishment and political class, though to leave the bloc. now here we _ class, though to leave the bloc. now here we are — class, though to leave the bloc. now here we are years later, and many voters _ here we are years later, and many voters are — here we are years later, and many voters are are saying that they would — voters are are saying that they would throw their weight behind what is a very— would throw their weight behind what is a very new party in british politics _ is a very new party in british politics it _ is a very new party in british politics. it is quite extraordinary development, and it is being led by nigel— development, and it is being led by nigel farage, who is arguably one of the most _ nigel farage, who is arguably one of the most successful british politicians of recent years. i think today— politicians of recent years. i think today he — politicians of recent years. i think today he was making quite clear with his use _ today he was making quite clear with his use of— today he was making quite clear with his use of the term, contract with the people. — his use of the term, contract with the people, ratherthan his use of the term, contract with the people, rather than manifesto, he understands he is not going to -et he understands he is not going to get a _ he understands he is not going to get a strong foothold into british politics _ get a strong foothold into british politics this time. but he is hoping he will— politics this time. but he is hoping he will get — politics this time. but he is hoping he will get a seat and will help shape — he will get a seat and will help shape british politics over the next five years. — shape british politics over the next five years, putting reform in a stronger— five years, putting reform in a stronger position. do five years, putting reform in a stronger position.— five years, putting reform in a stronger position. do you think that is wh he stronger position. do you think that is why he launched _ stronger position. do you think that is why he launched in _ stronger position. do you think that is why he launched in wales, - stronger position. do you think that l is why he launched in wales, because he sees himself as the official opposition to labour a? i he sees himself as the official opposition to labour a? i think he launched in _ opposition to labour a? i think he launched in wales _ opposition to labour a? i think he launched in wales because - opposition to labour a? i think he launched in wales because it - opposition to labour a? i think he launched in wales because it is i opposition to labour a? i think he launched in wales because it is a | launched in wales because it is a way for— launched in wales because it is a way for reform to pivot towards attacking — way for reform to pivot towards attacking labour, and where better to lodge _ attacking labour, and where better to lodge your manifesto at in wales, where _ to lodge your manifesto at in wales, where labour have had a essentially full control — where labour have had a essentially full control for the last 25 years? and wales — full control for the last 25 years? and wales is performing very poorly on a range _ and wales is performing very poorly on a range of metrics, its economy has grown — on a range of metrics, its economy has grown up more slowly since 2018, as nhs— has grown up more slowly since 2018, as nhs waiting lists are worse, around — as nhs waiting lists are worse, around a — as nhs waiting lists are worse, around a third of children in wales are classed — around a third of children in wales are classed as living in poverty. you _ are classed as living in poverty. you namely policy area, and wales is lagging _ you namely policy area, and wales is lagging behind. ithink you namely policy area, and wales is lagging behind. i think in that respect — lagging behind. i think in that respect it did make sense, i think it was— respect it did make sense, i think it was time — respect it did make sense, i think it was time to offer people a glimpse _ it was time to offer people a glimpse into what their future will be glimpse into what their future will he like _ glimpse into what their future will he like if — glimpse into what their future will be like if they vote for labour. if we are _ be like if they vote for labour. if we are to — be like if they vote for labour. if we are to believe what nigel farage says. _ we are to believe what nigel farage says. he _ we are to believe what nigel farage says, he sees himself now as someone who might _ says, he sees himself now as someone who might be a leader of the opposition. let's take a quick look at some of the things in reform's offer, starting with migration. the party pledges to freeze all nonessential immigration. they would leave the european convention on human rights, all illegal migrants will be detained and deported, small boats picked up and taken back to france, there would be a new department for immigration. on defence they would spend 3% of gdp, nhs spending would increase by 17 billion, they will introduce tax relief of 20% on private health care and insurance. front line nhs and social care staff will pay zero basic rate income tax for three years. they would lift the income tax threshold to £20,000 and the inheritance tax threshold to £2 million. scrap net zero and green levies to bring down energy bills. and in education, they would introduce a "patriotic curriculum", and introduce tax relief of 20% on all independent education. that's a lot of tax and spending pledges. how does it add up? here's verify�*s ben chu. here is the rough size of the lib dem labour and tory manifestos in tax and spending terms, between £7 billion and £27 billion per year, and here are the greens, £172 billion a year, and here is reform, £141 billion. as you can see, reform and the greens really tower over the the other parties, and public finance experts feel that while individual elements of the latter two parties might be coherent, they feel that overall there is a lack of credibility. as then farage says, it is hard to tell whether the sums add up, but maybe they don't need to. this is red meat for the base. it is very difficult for the main parties to compete with that. the difficult for the main parties to compete with that. the greens and reformed only _ compete with that. the greens and reformed only to _ compete with that. the greens and reformed only to live _ compete with that. the greens and reformed only to live in _ compete with that. the greens and reformed only to live in the - compete with that. the greens and reformed only to live in the world l reformed only to live in the world because everything is fresh and cool second that they are going to run the country, so they can make all these ridiculous pledges such as stopping illegal immigration, because they will never be tested to do that. you can see the other spending pledges from the other parties, they are based on reality. and that is not where those two parties are at the moment. but a bout for reform is a vibe at the moment, it is not a vote for a party like it's going to form a government. it is a protest vote to show your displeasure of the way that the tories have gone and historically the way that nigel farage has had an enormous impact on our politics is not through his own policy reform, it is not from a ukip manifesto, it is from pulling the party itself in a certain direction. the suspicion is that is precisely what we will see again this year. after the tories are crushed in defeat, we presume, we will be killed in the direction of nigel farage by reform. he has done it several times, and it feels like he is going to do again. according to tim shipman in the sunday times there was a moment last week, post normandy, where things got so bleakfor the prime minister he apparently mulled whether to withdraw from the election campaign and leave it to others. but today rishi sunak was out on a flurry of campaign stops hoping to stop the bleed. what won't necessarily help the tories is news that the pro—remain group, best for britain, has today published an online analysis of how to vote tactically to keep the tories and reform out. here's what it looks like. the project is supposedly based on mrp polling, and for each constituency there is a recommendation of how to vote. it shows you how many people in that constituency at the think will vote tactically. does tactical voting work? {lit tactically. does tactical voting work? , ., . . work? of course it works and we have seen it at previous _ work? of course it works and we have seen it at previous general _ seen it at previous general elections. i wonder if people will vote tactically less time. we all unite _ vote tactically less time. we all unite we — vote tactically less time. we all unite we have 40—45% of voters still undecided _ unite we have 40—45% of voters still undecided i— unite we have 40—45% of voters still undecided. i think many people simply— undecided. i think many people simply will not bother to show up. that is— simply will not bother to show up. that is an — simply will not bother to show up. that is an expectation of relatively low voter— that is an expectation of relatively low voter turnout. those that do show _ low voter turnout. those that do show up. — low voter turnout. those that do show up. i — low voter turnout. those that do show up, i think it has been such a negative _ show up, i think it has been such a negative campaign that there will be a lot of— negative campaign that there will be a lot of spoilt ballots, people who 'ust a lot of spoilt ballots, people who just threw— a lot of spoilt ballots, people who just threw away their boats, people who vote _ just threw away their boats, people who vote reform, a lot of people 'ust who vote reform, a lot of people just deciding on the day. i think at the moment is very difficult to know what the _ the moment is very difficult to know what the shape of things will be three _ what the shape of things will be three weeks from now. an extraordinary situation, really. but certainly— extraordinary situation, really. but certainly the problem for rishi sunak— certainly the problem for rishi sunak and the conservative party as they are _ sunak and the conservative party as they are trying to push this message that a _ they are trying to push this message that a vote _ they are trying to push this message that a vote for reform is a vote for labour, _ that a vote for reform is a vote for labour, and — that a vote for reform is a vote for labour, and unfortunately itjust isn't _ labour, and unfortunately itjust isn't sticking, such as the sense of disappointment and a betrayal that tory voters feel towards the party that they — tory voters feel towards the party that they mayjust look for reform anyway _ that they mayjust look for reform anyway it— that they may 'ust look for reform an a . . , , ., that they may 'ust look for reform an a. . . anyway. it was grant shapps that had the morning — anyway. it was grant shapps that had the morning round. _ warning people that if they vote for reform they will end up with a labour "super majority". here he is on times radio this morning saying the quite bit out loud. it's possible to win the election. do i accept it's not the most likely outcome? of course i accept that, i'm a realist — but i also think that when people start to narrow down on this focus, and, in particular i've noticed this with talking to people on the doorstep, where they have been perhaps toying with voting in another direction and then realising thatjust gives starmer more power, and no one, i think, at this stage, thinks that it would be to the benefit of themselves, their own household budgets and attacks that would come upon it to have a massive starmer majority. i'v e i've been doing this a long time, i can as shall remember a secretary of state coming out and admitting they are going to lose the election. —— i can't actually remember. have you heard that before?— can't actually remember. have you heard that before? jeremy hunt were sa in: heard that before? jeremy hunt were saying something _ heard that before? jeremy hunt were saying something similar— heard that before? jeremy hunt were saying something similar the - heard that before? jeremy hunt were saying something similar the other i saying something similar the other day, that a vote for starmer will give him an even bigger majority, and otherwise he is going to win. i was talking to someone about this, who said that this occasionally happens in at the very final days of a campaign, the last two days when you really can see which way it is going. it is a final attempt to squeeze that majority. i've never seen that happening with an election with two or three weeks to go. it will give you a sense of how desperate things must be in at the tory camp if they have each for this button already. tory camp if they have each for this button already-— tory camp if they have each for this button already. rishi sunak has been uraed button already. rishi sunak has been ura ed to button already. rishi sunak has been uraed to no button already. rishi sunak has been urged to go for— button already. rishi sunak has been urged to go for the _ button already. rishi sunak has been urged to go for the jugular— button already. rishi sunak has been urged to go for the jugular and - button already. rishi sunak has been urged to go for the jugular and go i urged to go for thejugular and go with more personal attacks on keir starmer. he is not really that kind of politician, is he? ihlat starmer. he is not really that kind of politician, is he?— starmer. he is not really that kind of politician, is he? not by nature, but at prime _ of politician, is he? not by nature, but at prime minister _ of politician, is he? not by nature, but at prime minister because - of politician, is he? not by nature, but at prime minister because he l but at prime minister because he would go for a keir starmer quite hot in a personal way, but it is not his instinct. there is a separate voice, perhaps the angel on rishi sunak�*s shoulder saying, you are going to lose here, but you're going to do with some dignity. maybe another voice in his head is saying the best thing to do is to show energy, fight on policy and don't go right down in the gutter fighting that way, because either way you're going to get beat. it is hard to say which way he will go, but there are certainly people offering him both sets of advice. what the tories are doing is attack, attack, attack. all of their