♪ right now on "early start," taking the stand. former president and current candidate donald trump about to testify in his new york fraud case. plus, big flashing warning signs for joe biden. battleground polling shows him trailing trump in key swing states. and antony blinken's diplomatic dash. the secretary of state makes surprise stops in the west bank and iraq, in a rush to keep the israel/hamas war from spreading. ♪ good morning to our viewers in the united states and around the world, i'm kasie hunt. it's monday, november 6th. norm tomorrow in election day in new york. right now it's 5:00 a.m. where former president trump will testify in a fraud lawsuit brought by the attorney general. he and his company is accused of repeatedly inflating his assets to get better terms on loans. the suit poses an existent threat to the organization. the state is seeking $200 million in damages and to bar trump. he goes into court, a new polling by "the new york times" shows him ahead of president biden in a hypothetical matchup in arizona, and michigan. and a biden campaign spokesman tells cnn, vote, predictions may look a little different. we'll win in 2024, putting our heads down and doing the work, not fretting about polling. let's bring in a reporter on the campaign trail in florida. shelby, good morning. they say that they're not fretting about a poll which, you know, as we often tease democrats about their hand-wringing, and yes, we do have about a year in the november election. but the reality is this is telling us, something that isn't -- it's significant in terms of where the electorate stands right now, and one of the big differences, as we get this hypothetical rematch if it is as we saw in 2020, this time, if it's a referendum, when i talk to sources, you tell me what your sources say to you, if it's a referendum, they say if it's about biden if they can make it on trump, but they're saying this is about joe biden and i'm not about it? >> that's exactly what the biden campaign is trying to do, trying to not only make it about donald trump but the major issues on the ballot. and all of these other topics so that's kind of the angle that team biden is going to try to profile next year and sort of make the argument that it doesn't matter about joe biden's age, it doesn't matter how you think he did, he's accomplished. and we a number of other issues on the ballot and if the other guy gets into office it's going to be really bad. that's kind of what team biden wants the voters to come away from 2024 with. the problem is so far it's clearly not resonating. >> yeah, on the issues, too, the numbers inside this poll, not great for biden. who would do a better job on the economy? trump is up -- it's plus 22 for trump. immigration, you see plus 12. national security, plus 12. abortion, the one issue that he as a democrat in the race seems to be polling better than trump. with the president running on bidenomics, it sorted of raises the question whether or not that's the right message for him, no? >> yeah, and it's been interesting, and i've talked to democrats who put up and argue that if they wait and see, eventually democrats will start to feel the results of what joe biden has done in the past four years, but certainly, so far, they have not. and that's a big problem. and the issues like the economy and the border are issues that republicans are really honing in on. so that's been effective for them so far in the polls. the question is can republicans continue to hone in on this and make the argument that joe biden is not the one for the kitchen table issue. or will joe biden initiative what he's done in office the past three years start to resonate with voters. >> let's talk about the republican primary, because the matchups, they assume that trump is going to win. but there is still a race going on in this primary. you were covering the florida freedom summit. and the trump campaign released a list endorsements including florida lawmakers that flipped from desantis to trump. i want to show a little bit of what desantis had to say about that. then i'll ask you about it. watch. >> now, look, this happens in these things, we've had flips the other way in other states. it's a dynamic thing. i mean, politicians do what they're going to do. i would say taking a step back and looking across the country, we've got more endorsements from state legislatures than any other candidate by far. >> so, you know, desantis, i get what he's trying to do there. but the reality is, his campaign is kind of in a really rough spot heading into this third debate as nikki haley seems to be eclipsing him in the race for second place. what did you hear over the weekend that you think is worth noting? >> yeah. so, i talked to some people close to desantis' campaign, and they actually thought that this incident in florida over the weekend where donald trump was able to flip all of these endorsements is a really worrying sign. because florida is desantis' home state. and this is the place where he's really made his mark. and he really came up in the conservative world during covid. and so the fact that donald trump has been able to kind of flip all of these local legislatures, state legislatures, is a major deal. and it's not a major deal in terms of moving the polls, i think, but it's a major deal because it sort of adds on to the already existent theory that ron desantis has struggled to gain momentum in this race. and so going into the third debate. now, he is expected to get an endorsement from kim reynolds today which is going to be arguably really big for his campaign. but the question is, how big of an impact can she make in a place like iowa. is it going to make up for 30 something points that he's down in that state. >> yeah, i was surprised that kim reynolds, the governor of iowa decided she's going to weigh in. sh shelby talcott, thanks. secretary of state antony blinken diplomacy, what did the secretary of state accomplish with unannounced stops in iraq and west bank . anand the act that could finally ststop the actctors str. ♪ welcome back. the israeli military intensifying their offensive overnight with a significant strike on gaza. idf soldiers reached gaza's mediterranean coast as part of an effort to encircle hamas. the military says they're targeting hamas infrastructure both above and below the ground. elliott gotkine is live in london with more. elliott, what more do we know about this strike? >> so, there was quite a lot going on overnight. israel saying it hit more than 450 targets overall in the gaza strip including a hamas military compound which included observation posts, anti-tank military posts and militants as well. over the weekend, israel saying they've bisected gaza by two. and encircled gaza city which it describes as a hamas fortress. now, there was a particular strike to the al maghazi refugee camp where doctors and a hospital said that dozens were killed. we asked the idf spokesman peter lerner earlier on cnn if he could shed light on what the target was, but he wouldn't even say it was idf that carried out this air strike, let alone what the target may have been. but he did say they are carrying out in his words precision-based activities he also says the kind of scenes of carnage and destruction that he have wean at al maghazi that we've seen in the past on the gaza strip that we should expect to see more because he said hamas embeds itself within the civilian infrastructure of the gaza strip. to make that point, the idea showing videos earlier this morning, showing what they say are hamas tunnels specifically dug underneath some hospitals in the gaza strip as well. so, we don't know specifically what the idf may have been targeting at al maghazi, but we do know what the result was, and that is according to doctors and health officials there, dozens of people being killed, kasie. >> elliott gotkine, thank you for that report. secretary of state antony blinken is in turkey this morning as part of his whirlwind diplomatic trip to the middle east. blinken also made a surprise visit to iraq on sunday where he and the iraqi prime minister discussed making sure the israel/hamas war does not spread into the widing region. after the meeting blinken reaffirmed humanitarian support for a humanitarian pause in the fighting. >> i think everyone would welcome humanitarian pauses, there's no doubt about that. there are obviously different views including the question of a cease-fire but there's no doubt from my conversations from all of the colleagues in oman yesterday that everyone would welcome a pause because it's all things we're trying to accomplish. cnn's max foster joins me from lo london. for viewers who missed you were on a royal tour of africa. you'll have to tell us about it later. blinken suspended with surprise stops he made in the west bank and in iraq, his continued presence in the region really sending a strong message about where, you know, where america stands right now. >> they're, there's semantics involved. very much saying he's not calling for a cease-fire, but that they have a right to defend itself against hamas but leaving hamas in place able to regroup and repeat what it does october 7. not wanting a cease-fire but many arab leaders do. he's suggesting a halfway house, if you like, a pause to allow hu humanitarian aid and release perhaps hostages from gaza as well. but there's an issue here, there's a big disconnect between what the arab leaders wants and what he wants. so, i don't know quite the success he's having there yet. >> yeah, certainly, the domestic political situation here in the u.s. is also influencing how the administration is talking about this overseas. to call for a cease-fire would be basically politically untenable in terms of how they view the support that is necessary for israel. but at the same time, president joe biden is under quite a bit of pressure from the progressive left, increasingly, on this topic, as it spilled out into the open last week. what is your sense, of how, as this kind of war wears on, where european leaders ultimately start to come down? do you get the sense they're going to begin to pressure the israelis and americans for more on this front or is the status quo still tenable for right now? >> well, you know, america touts itself as the broker in this region. speaking to some, you know, very well-placed people in the arab world in the last 24 hours. and nobody questioning that when they so clearly sided as they it with israel, coming both from the region with our leaders there's no question. there is, i think a growing sentiment in europe, that perhaps european allies of america, don't necessarily have to completely sign up to the way they're handling it. maybe there is a way to have a more critical role in this process, without pushing more of a cease-fire policy and getting more involved in the process. i just think there's an apprehension about crossing messages with the united states. so, at the moment, you know, countries like the uk and france firmly behind israel and the united states, it will be interesting to see whether or not internal pressure here will bubble up to involve the european nations and being more critical about current negotiations under way, being a bit more critical of israel as well, without showing a lack of support what they went through and longer terms of allied status with israel. >> certainly, conversations along those lines currently being held in private. we'll see if it spills over in public view. max foster, great to see you, see you tomorrow. george santos, the embattled congressman trying to answer this question, would he really run again? 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[ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. ♪ welcome back. quick hits across america now. sources tell cnn that iowa's republican governor kim reynolds will endorse florida governor ron desantis in the 2024 republican primary expected to happen later tonight at a predebate rally in des moines. embattled republican congressman george santos sat down with cnn's manu raju for a wide-ranging interview, including summing up what 2023 has been like for him and his plans to run for re-election. >> so, they expel you, and then they put someone else in the seat, you're going to run in 2024? >> absolutely. >> can you win a primary, given all of these things lined up against you. >> yes. >> in a general election. >> this is a biden district. >> could i have won the general election last time? nobody said you could. >> tell me what this year has been for you. >> hell. hell in the most profound way. >> okay, the house ethics committee expected to announce update on its report on santos by the end of next week. and the negotiating committee for the film and tv actors union on saturday said it received a last, best and final offer from the hollywood studios including disney, netflix, nbcuniversal and warner brothers discovery which is the parent company of cnn. even if a deal is reached it would still need to be ratified by union members. record breaking warmth spreading eastward this week apparently to be followed by a whiplash of cold front behind. persistently dry weather in the southeast has created dangerous fire conditions for the carolinas. let's get straight to the weatherman's derek van dam, derek, happy monday. looks like possibilities with what i'm seeing behind you. >> yeah, wide range across the country but i want to focus what's going on across the carolinas particularly in the asheville region. this is the appalachian mountains and it's extremely dry. we're located in atlanta, we're feeling the persistently dry conditions but the wind picked up. and unfortunately a trigger of wildfires and very little containment. the wind exceeds 20 miles per hour that doesn't seem like much but with bone dry weather it doesn't take much to start a fire. henderson county and parts of north carolina under a state of emergency. now, here's a look at the latest fires, the collette ridge fire, zero percent contained. the popular dry fire which you saw a moment ago. 5% containment. roughly 500 to 1,000 acres burned so far. what's interesting to note, it's located across the severe drought category, level 3 of 5, over north carolina. and that continues to degrade as we get the weekly updates from the u.s. drought monitor, because it is so dry, relative hum hum humidities are low. record highs from tuesday into swens a big story. we'll feeling on the east coast as well. yeah, dry conditions leading to fire in the southeast. >> all right. be careful out there, as we continue, up here in the northeast, our roller coaster of a fall, back and forth, back and forth, derek van dam, see you tomorrow, appreciate it. >> yep. just hours from now, donald trump will raise his right hand and swear to tell the truth in court. more on that fraud case in new york. and the biden campaign claims it's not fretting abobou the battleleground pollingng shg trump aheaead in key s states. dodo we believeve that? ♪ good morning. thank you for being up early with us. i'm kasie hunt. it is 5:30 here on the east coast. and in only a few hours, former president trump takes the stand in the new york attorney general civil fraud lawsuit. trump and his companies are on trial for repeatedly inflating the value of his properties to get better values on real estate loans and deflating them for insurance purposes. attorney general letitia james is seeking to bar trump from doing business in his home base of new york along with getting $250 million potentially in damages. joining us now cnn legal analyst and criminal defense attorney joey jackson. joey always good to see you. thank you for being here. the stakes for trump, the whole business is on the line. trump is not known for being, you know, faithful for the truth on the regular. but he is going to be under oath today. and we know things can get touchy when things don't go his way. what should we look for today? >> yeah, kasie, good morning to you. to me, it's all about knowledge, direction and role, right? and to the extent that we're talking about that, to what extent was he knowledgeable to the affairs of his company, by the way, i'm running the free world, to what extent was he directing the operations of the company and to what extent was he controlling it. and to that extent, kasie, i'm looking to whether he's testifying or campaigning. remember, he says this is a witch hunt, that the attorney general during her campaign would get him, and in doing that, having that narrative in campaigning that's something that could play to a jury. there is no jury here. so to that extent you have to really answer questions. the judge is going to be focused in on the facts of the case, not so much the greempss, but the facts. i want to know how he embraces it, how he spins. he's going to say he runs a perfect company, the trump band is very significant, valuations are subjective, and how dare you challenge the fact that i'm not worth the billions of dollars that we indicated we are worth. i'm looking for all of those things as he testifies today, kasie. >> let's talk about his relationship with the judge a little bit. we've seen him react around the conversation of gag order and attacks one of the judge's clerks on social media. how do you expect that dynamic to play out today. this judge is clearly trying to send a message like, look, i'm not afraid of you. >> yes. there's no question about it, and in sending that message this is a judge who has held him, you know, essentially in contempt, in as much as finding him not to be credible and fining him, right? twice already. in addition to those fines that were imposed of him saying that the former president was incredible, there was some issue prior to trial, because the trump wouldn't handle the discovery, right? that's information that's needed for a case to move forward that has evidentiary value and it needs to be seen through analyzing what continues. so there's some concern, you know, leading up to the trial. so, certainly, the dynamic is tense. and will the judge and will mr. trump be able to co-exist in that regard? will mr. touch berump be able tr the question posed? will he be spinning his property, the knowledge he had to its value and controlling the direction in which he was engaged in. i think the judge has been and will be in every effort to be impartial and listen to testimony but i think he'll have mr. trump on a short string and want him to answer the questions and not really give him a narrative to the seats and people who are not in the courtroom and that of the voters deciding the campaign. >> well, unprecedented territory we're in. joey jackson, i have a feeling you and i are speaking a lot over the course of next election year. thanks for your time. appreciate it. >> looking forward to it. always. >> see you soon. with 2024 shaping up it seems to be a trump/biden rematch. bath ground states like nevada and georgia are going to decide who wins the white house. new polling from "the new york times" and siena college shows former president trump ahead. in states like arizona and wisconsin, poll margins are extremely tight. let's bring in michael rosen, a former press secretary to first lady jill biden. michael, good to have you today. we've got this quote from the president's campaign manager kevin munoz, who downplayed the polls, a year out tend to look different a year later, okay? he also said they're not fretting about these polls. do you think that they should be fretting about these polls if knacin fact