just. close in ohio, mayors on marijuana and abortion rights are on the ballot. reproductive rights are also the center the ballot for control of the state legislature, both houses in virginia. in all of tonight's elections will be a test of a fascinating and defining political dynamic of the biden era, where we have seen democrats reliably outperforming against all odds. first, the incumbent party controlling the white house is usually at a disadvantage. boaters nationally react against swimming back in the other direction, that's why midterm elections tend to favor the party that's out of power. then of course there are conditions joe biden democrats but up, against coming out of the covid pandemic. they have dealt with serious economic headwinds that have racked most of the economies of the world. chief among them, high in inflation, which peak last year in a stunning 9.1%. the president's approval rating has suffered, to say the least. he has been underwater since his first year in office, recently falling back below 40%. polling of a head to head matchup between biden's most likely opponent, donald trump, is keeping democrats a week at night. trump leads in five of the six most important battleground states, according to the latest new york times survey. and so you would think all of that will translate into poor electoral results for the democrats. that has not been the case. last year's midterms were the best friend can mentor presidents party in their first midterms since 1934, during franklin delano roosevelt bush first term. democrats have overperformed in a string of special elections is year across all kinds of districts, intended front states, including virginia, kentucky, tennessee. in fact, in 24 out of 30 races, the margin in those special elections swung towards the democrats, the presidents party. this pattern emerged in the overturning of roe v. wade last summer. that ruling was, of course, a seismic shockwaves for reproductive freedom for millions, but also politically. it instantly alienated millions of voters from the hard right antiabortion platform of the republican party. just six weeks after the ruling, bowlers conservative red kansas rejected the -- amendment to the state constitution that would've made abortion illegal. the first real indication that the majority of pro rights voters will do anything in their power to secure those rights at the voting booth. today abortion rights are on the ballot again for voters in ohio and indirectly in virginia, where republican-controlled legislature would pave the way for conservative agenda that includes passing a ban on abortion and 15 weeks. another factor at play that could be helping to drive these results for democrats, of course, is the leader of the republican party, the front runner for his party's presidential nomination. donald trump remains a wildly unpopular intensely polarizing figure. it's constantly in the news, he faces a total of 91 felony counts across four criminal cases, along with an ongoing fraud trial, and continues to make open threats to end american democracy as we know it. concerns about what a rematch between trump and biden or second trump term could bring are certainly driving force for some voters. so once again, we're gonna get a reality check tonight after the big news cycle of polling over the weekend, there's polling in the news voting. they are different things. across the country, today, people showed up for the polls, the actual polls, where their numbers are ballot, and they're gonna vote to declare what they care about, what they want. as we have seen, that is not always the same as what they tell pollsters. those results are coming in right now. joining me now is steve kornacki at the big board. steve, what have we got? what's the latest? hear >> a lot happening right now in a bunch of different states here in kentucky. well over half of the vote is in the incumbent democratic vote governor andy beshear. about five and a half points ahead in a running tally of his republican challenger, but an important piece of news to tell you, our decision desk, which has said this was too close to call, now says that andy beshear is leading in this race. and there is a reason for it. basically we have 16 counties right now. there's 112-year-old kentucky. there are 16 counties at this point that our reporting at 95% of their vote, in 14 of those 16 counties and english beshear is doing better than he did in 2019. if you remember 2019 being won by the slimmest of margins. he won by four tenths of one point, about 5000 votes statewide, and moreover i say he's doing better in 14 of those 16 counties, just about all of those 16 counties are red counties. they are republican counties. let me give you an example. pulaski county, this in 2019 produced, the republican ran in 2019, matt bevin, produced his biggest plural plurality in the state. camryn is winning the state by two to, one but here's the key, andy beshear is sitting at 32% was just about all the vote in in pulaski county. what did any beshear get in this county a 2019? he got 28%. that's the kind of improvement we are seeing for beshear in red county after it county as they reach this 95% threshold we're looking at. a much bigger county right here in the cincinnati suburb of boone county, where florence, kentucky's, about 96% of the vote, just about all of it is in. now again, this is a county that beshear lost in 2019, and daniel cameron, the republican, is going to win this county tonight. but beshear is sitting at 44%. what do you get 2019? 41%. so, again, not huge numbers, but it's a consistent pattern that is developing, where cameron, the republican, wanted to take the better numbers and improve on them and instead beshear is taking his numbers to move it up a few points, it seems, just about every county where we are seeing this level of vote return. the other thing that we are seeing is in some of these big population centers, core democratic areas, this is the second biggest population center in the state. fayette county, this is where the university of kentucky, the university of like second lexington, no question beshear is good when. this but we're inching up 90% of the vote. but here is sitting at 72%. you've got he got 66% in 2019. this number now has been leveled, close to 72% for a while. so he's getting, right now, potentially, a bigger share out of a gigantic county. look at the suburbs of lexington. scott county, 92% of the vote is in, about 54 and a half percent a vote for beshear, he was under 50 and 2019. that is just the pattern that we are seeing here in kentucky in county after county. so this is why it is close statewide, about 60% of the vote right now, there is a trend that really seems to be asserting itself here. it accounts for the decision desks decision to say that beshear is leading at this point. if you take a look north of kentucky, in ohio, polls closed about half an hour ago, and this map is lighting up right now, about one fifth of the vote is in ohio, issue one, put the right to an abortion in the state constitution would allow for restrictions -- about 22, 24 weeks. it's basically almost 65% yes on that right now. our declaration at the decision desk is that yes is leading, no surprise when she numbers like that. i think if you start to look at the pattern that's developing here, there was, if anybody remembers, a test vote in ohio this summer, opponents in issue one, anticipating this night, a question about this summer that would've raised the threshold for a constitutional amendment to 60%, and that went down in flames. what we are seeing in the counties so far are results that are very consistent with what we saw over the summer, when that is notable, that stands right out here, this is delaware county. this is directly north of franklin county where columbus is. franklin county is like a suburban bedroom county. it's a republican county. trump won this county by seven points. but over the summer, this county voted pretty strongly against changing that threshold, and look at this. 68.8% in the initial batch of votes and delaware voting yes on issue one. keep in mind, all of these initial batches in ohio are mail votes, early votes, there is good as it gets for issue one. but still, a heck of a starting point for issue one in a republican county, a population dense republican county. and again, the returns that we are seeing right now look pretty consistent with what we saw over the summer. >> steve, this is fascinating to me, particularly the idea that that summer vote was a proxy vote. you trick voters, where they tend to sniff it out. oh we were just doing the threshold. but what happened was, everybody kind of understood by the time election was over, even though was august, very weird time to be having an election, that this was a kind of proxy vote for this abortion vote that's gonna happen. and it wouldn't be surprising, i think, if we saw similar numbers between those two votes when all is said and done. >> it was, but the marriage in this summer was 50, so no over the summer is the equivalent of yes tonight. and it was no 57, yes 43 over the summer. so if it ends up yes 57, no 43 or something like that, from what you are looking at right now it's certainly in question. >> steve kornacki, great to have you back. thank you very much. we'll check in with you a little bit. clearance casket, former democratic senator of new jersey, joins me. now let's start on kentucky. i would say it's not as a conservative state's kentucky. >> pretty similar at this point. >> in the ballpark. >> the margins were similar for trump in missouri. >> a very impressive showing. >> yeah. >> and why democratic governor in that state? >> here's what's important about kentucky. we've had these initiatives on the ballot, but it has been the issue of abortion people have been voting on, not candidates. and what beshear did is, he made the rape and incest exception primarily his campaign, with discipline for the last month of this campaign, including powerful ad, including a young woman who had been raped by her stepfather when she was 12 years old. what this shows you is that this issue, the extreme position they have taken on this issue in my state and many other places in the republican party, including the new speaker of the house, by the way, who is very extreme on this issue, that is not going to work for candidates, and democrats need to pay attention to what andy beshear did here and use it against the republicans, because they have lost the thread on this in terms of the american people. >> there's two other things that i think are interesting. the other thing they came after beshear on was trans medical care. there are republican legislature passed a ban on trans medical. but she, or to his credit, vetoed it. he said, is a christian and as a parent, i think this interferes with parental rights. they tried to utterly knock his head off on this. we have now seen this over and over again. we saw the racism the race in michigan, they think, republicans keep thinking this is their key issue, and we've got another tally on the board that shows it is not doing what they think it is. >> that's exactly right. and by the way, it is interesting to me that the republicans think these cultural issues are going to win for them. as it turns out, voters in the states, like mine, they don't want government involved in this stop. they don't want it in their bedroom, they don't wanna telling parents what to do with their own children. so i do think there is consistency. >> yes. >> among these voters that they don't want government in an all. >> i thought the beshear argument, which from a parental rights standpoint, if you don't want to do it, that's when you. but don't tell me. the third thing i find fascinating here, the pertains to a man is served alongside, which is mitch mcconnell. mitch mcconnell likes to complain about candidate quality. as the problem for republicans. the last guy, matt, banning was not a mitch mcconnell guy. he hated michigan. he was the ultimate party crasher, tea party guy, totally laurie loggerheads. this guy, daniel cameron, is mitch mcconnell's dude. >> he. is >> he is knighted by mitch mcconnell. and he just got his butt kicked tonight. >> it looks like he's gonna get his butt kicked tonight in a state that mitch mcconnell likes to be proudly saying that he is still has his fingers on all the levers of power. so it is a wake up call, i think, for the republican party, but it needs to be a wake up call for the democrat party. everybody needs to quit getting panicky about next year. the front the middle's as a democrat it's under biden. side we have the ability to take the election next year like we haven't taken an election long time. >> i'm glad you brought that up. you've been in elections where you can feel the environment. you can feel if you're interacting reactionary mood. you can feel a disk peptic and disgruntled electorate. if everything is going as poorly, as people say things are going, particularly economically, i don't think what you would predict is that the incumbent democratic governor in the state of kentucky, who is running is the incumbent, you don't like the high prices, is gonna win the race. there's a bit of a mismatch between that, what people tell pollsters, and a democratic governor in kentucky winding widening's marriage information 29 in 2023, we've got a democrat at the white house. >> the bottom line, is republicans while put the government in your bedroom. they also want to say it's okay to slaughter children with military style weapons, sitting harmlessly in a school. these mass shootings, along with the abortion issue, that is our culture war for the democratic party, and we would be fools not to pick it up and run with it. and i get it that dumb trump's a problem. we need to go after him big time for all of those reasons. but those are two things that we can campaign on. and i think they'll be very effective especially in suburban america. >> claire mccaskill, great to have you here. we're gonna keep checking in on the latest results. they want to get ahead of anything. we have to close to call beshear. you saw that county by county. but first, the performance of the republican presidential front runner in court, and what it portends for his criminal trials next year. we'll be right back. be right back. to work from home, so that means lots of video calls. i see myself more and i definitely see those deeper lines. i'm still kim and i got botox® cosmetic. i wanted to keep the expressions that i would normally have, you know, you're on camera and the only person they can look at is you. i was really happy with the results. i look like me just with fewer lines. botox® cosmetic is fda approved to temporarily make frown lines, crow's feet, and forehead lines look 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tell trump's lawyer, i beseech you to control him. do you understand that? there are also more substantive moments, when trump admitted he had signed a document making representations about his financial situation, quote, in order to induce lender to accept this guarantee and to enter into the credit agreement. msnbc legal analyst katie phang said this quote, a critical admission by trump as he admits that the intend to make these financial representatives representation was to convince lenders to lend him money. i think we've reached a phase of this trial where can best be compared to the infamous chicago seven trial and 1969, where the anti-war protesters on trial decided to turn the whole thing into a circus and put the system on trial. basically, the term that donald trump and his attorneys made here, at the risk of enraging the judge will be the lone one deciding trump's culpability in this case. more importantly, every judge who was a trump trial coming up to be watching this. it looks like a dress rehearsal to polarize opinion about the legitimacy of the proceedings themselves rather than try to win the case within the confines of the court. msnbc legal analyst lisa moore rubin was in the court for that performance. she joins me. now that scan to, you that there is a tactical decision? this giveaways to look at this. you can't restrain trump and he has no self control. i don't quite by that. the other is that basically this is a tactic now. trying to sort of bait the judge into saying something that convert this into a kind of a polarized prism of, this judges out to get me, and that's really what they are up to? >> it can be both. i think there are moments when trump showed he can be disciplined. and partially he showed that when he started to echo things that i know his lawyers have told him. when he talked about what you can expect during the rest of this trial, which witnesses are going to come, which important bankers will be there, which expert witnesses