seems to stun me. >> it seems right now with the war effort and fractiousinous and the rage of his government even before him it's like there's pressure building up in this chamber. we'll see where that goes. >> thanks to you at home for joining me this evening. if you missed it, this is what it looked like when robert f. kennedy jr. officially announced he would run as a third party candidate for president. >> i need my speech. >> you can't read anything. it's upside down. it's upside down. >> it's upside down. that is how rfk jr. began his independent bid for the presidency last month, and that's kind of how it's been this whole time with rfk jr. his campaign has been filled with unfortunate stunts like posting videos of him doing push ups shirtless for no reason at all. he's trafficked conspiracy theories more suited today the dark web or a reddit page. >> covid-19 is targeted to attack caucasians and black people. the people -- i don't know what happened on 9/11. i mean i understand what the official explanati is. i understand there's the -- >> so there's no doubt in your mind that al-qaeda is responsible? >> well, i know. i don't know -- i know there's strange things that happen. >> despite the ethno immunity theories and 9/11 trutherism, there are still people in this country who thinks rfk jr. belongs in the white house. a poll of six key battleground states. it found in a three-way race 24% of registered voters in those swing states picked rfk jr. 33% chose joe biden. 35% chose donald trump. digging a little deeper, that same poll found rfk jr. beating both joe biden and donald trump among voters younger than ha. that was most pronounced among americans age 18 to 29. kennedy at 39%, biden at 30% and donald trump. now, it is not that voters are all of a sudden true believers that 9/11 was an inside job or that covid is a government bioweapon, but it does appear that voters especially young voters are unhappy with both of the likely nominees here and that a third party candidate could have a real shot at disrupting this election. enough so that the current president of the united states and the former president of the united states could lose a key voting bloc to a shirtless vaccine skeptic. against that backdrop, we got this surprise announcement today. >> i've made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that i will not be running for re-election to the united states senate. but what i will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there's an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle. >> west virginia democratic senator joe manchin announced today he is not running for re-election in west virginia, and he hinted at what sure sounds like a potential third party presidential run. that whole travel the country and talk to voters thing is reminiscent of hillary clinton's listening tour in 2015 before she ran for president. manchin's decision not to run for his senate seat has immediately created problems for democrats looking to keep control of the senate in 2024. that is when the party will be defending seats in red states like ohio and montana. but a third party presidential bid from joe manchin, that complicates things on an entirely different level. if he decides to enter the race, manchin will be joining at least three other independent candidates. but precisely because he's a main stream political actor and a democrat and not doing shirtless push-ups and talking about the immune systems of jewish people, joe manchin could significantly change the landscape of the 2024 race among a wider swath of of voters in a way that either third party candidates cannot. which is why according to "the washington post" republican senator mitt romney has been pushing manchin to give up on the idea of a presidential run saying i lobby continuously that it would only elect trump. for now all we know is that joe manchin is leaving the senate to see if there is a movement to mobilize the middle. joining me now are my friends co-hosts of show time's "the circus," which after eight great seasons will air its season finale sunday at 8:00 p.m. eastern. i say that with tear in my eye. i am emotional about it, but i'm going to get to it later but after we get to equally emotional stuff but in a different way. every time we want to interview joe manchin on the circus we'd say can mckinnon get us joe manchin. i know you talked to joe manchin. you established no labels, the sort of third party independent organization that you are no longer affiliated with. >> haven't been for ten years. let's make that clear. >> abundantly clear. how do you read the decision and announcement on the part of manchin today? >> no surprise to me. we knew he was in jeopardy in west virginia and justice was going to be a much stronger candidate. it was lucky manchin was there when he was to help pass its key legislation. >> although some people would say it's difficult. >> signature legislation because of manchin. he has a history of no labels and familiar with each other. i don't know what if any conversation. >> can i say it again -- >> i don't want to speak for the organization, and i don't know what's going on and what conversations they had, but he has a history and that could line up in some way, but here's the bottom line for me. he's a man of faith and his word, and he says a couple things. one, if we put this together and cannot win, we're going to pull it down. >> joe manchin? >> joemantion or whoever is on this no labels ticket. >> you said joe leiberman. >> joe leiberman is the chairman of no labels. sorry, two joes. he's the chairman of no labels. like i said i trust anything he says, and he says if we put together this ticket and it cannot clearly win, we're going to pull it down. and the point of of the exercise is to ensure he's not elengthed. they could put popular republicans on the no labels ballot in five key swing states and take votes away from trump. >> right. but just as it pertains to washington, i think there's a certain segment of the democratic electorate that heard this manchin argument and their hearts dropped, right? it's been a week for democrats. the beginning of the week with the poll numbers, right, and then the high of tuesday night, the democratic platform remains sound and strong. >> voters are on the alert. it's like fall of 2022. >> there's a question about how much joe biden and the democratic platform are won in 2024, whether the distaste for abortion restrictions and many other cultural wedge issues republicans have dreamed up are enough to translate into strong support for joe biden. i've got to read this statement from the white house to you, jen. joe, gale, and the entire manchin family should be proud of the senator's service to west virginia and to our country. i look forward to our work together. subtext, please don't run against me. >> it is in 2016 all it took was jill stein running as the green party candidate. her margin of victory -- the vote she got in michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania was enough to give those states to donald trump. so now we have rfk jr., jill stein, cornell west, and possibly joe manchin. i mean it is -- joe manchin getting in this race that -- the whole thing explodes. we're in a very different situation. now, having said that, there is zero evidence that there is grass roots support in america for a joe manchin specific candidacy, right? you can't concoct these kind of candidacies in a laboratory in the washington, d.c. group. there needs to be some movement among grass roots they want someone like him. and my view is there is a centrist that people can vote for in the presidential election. the agenda he's put forward and passed, it is right down the middle of mainstream america and supported by a big majority of american people. you already have that. i just don't see what the theory is with a manchin candidacy. >> yeah, that's the question, right? does he syphon votes from biden or trump? and we know from polling if you believe it biden's problems are with younger voters and voters of color. joe manchin -- that's not joe manchin's bread and butter, so does this hurt trump more than biden? >> listen, i think the same as leiberman has said, i think the same is true at the end of the day for joe manchin. at the end of the day i do not believe he'll want his legacy to help donald trump get re-elected. >> i do wonder -- i mean i do wonder if there's -- let me talk about the senate before we get into a big existential about the middle and america. i mean, there's the very real, the looming reality that democrats could lose the senate in 2024, jen, right? joe manchin's seat is going to go to a republican. >> we came towards that a while ago. it was likely justice is going to run against him and it was going to be hard for him to defeat somebody like that. then it means democrats have to run the table against everyone else. that means john tester has to hold montana and sherrod brown is going to win in ohio. they are very hard red states democrats have to hold in order to hold onto the senate. >> when you talk about -- i mean not sherrod brown but think about sinema and tester and joe manchin, it speaks to a certain reality of modern american politics, jen, which is the democratic tent has gotten real big, right? as the republican party has shrunk to a smaller and smaller group of maga acolytes, the democratic tent has expanded bigger and bigger and bigger and it's almost sort of plainly obvious if either side is going to shed centrist at this point it's going to be the democratic party. it just seems to be a natural extension of how big and wieldly the tent has gotten to some degree. >> individual candidates they shape their own races, and you saw that down in kentucky for the bashir race. montanans, they know who he is, and these candidates are very adept at working really hard to communicate within their own state about who they are. >> john tester known for tractor pulls. that's john tester for you. i want to ask you both because when we talk about american politics it's impossible to talk about -- it's impossible to avoid conversations about things you've done on the surface whether it's john tester giving a ride on his tractor or chasing him down on his houseboat in washington, d.c. these are things that actually happened for people who watch "the circus." you guys had a front row seat, i was there for a bit of it watching american politics. i wonder how we think whether joe manchin can change the race or not, whether you think conventional wisdom applies or not. we talk about what's going to happen. i don't know. >> listen, the think about conventional wisdom was this show would be one and done. we were going to cover the hillary clinton presidential campaign. >> and "the circus" would refer to one presidential race and not all of them. >> and how interesting would the hillary clinton presidency be? probably not that interesting in a really good way, but three weeks in they said the circus hadn't stopped, keep going and now we're 130 episodes later. part of it was it was surprise after surprise after surprise. if we pitched this as fictional strip, they would have thrown this out. >> i feel like that night in atlanta -- remember january 5, 2021 in atlanta, they won, we had this great conversation. >> it was this feeling we were at a different point in american politics. >> democracy was back and so many people voted and voted in a runoff and it was more than ever before and biden had won and trump was not going to be able to steal the white house from him. and the next morning the bottom fell out. and that is when i felt like there are just -- you can look at very recent history to see 2022 and what motivated people to turn out then. but to think you can look back 20 or 30 years and think how things going to go based on past experience, i think we're in a different time. >> who really knows anything anymore about where we're headed. >> nobody knows nothing about nothing. >> listen, folks, i'm sorry that we won't have "the circus" to tune into on sunday nights regularly but i'm thrilled this means you'll be in new york city more often. >> stay tuned. >> yes, i will stay tuned. thank you for joining me and congratulations. >> thank you for all you did for "the circus." you are the straw that stirred the circus. >> the cocktail swizzle stick. >> it wouldn't be the success it is. >> john palmieri and marc mckinnon thank you for joining me. do not forget to tune into the circus. a lot this evening including the in-depth look between the on-again, off-again relationship between donald trump and fox news, which is apparently on again. brian stelter joins me with a preview of the new chronicle about the network of lies. plus special counsel jack smith previews his case against trump and trump's attempt to steal the 2020 election. that's next. s attempt to steal e 2020 election. that's next. everybody wants a healthy work life, and life life. where you can dream big in tech. or medicine. or where you get to reinvent the automobile. all with easy access to this. this, this, and this. this is michigan. this is where big careers shape the future. your future. want to start living your best life? you can in michigan. i got this $1,000 camera for only $41 on dealdash. dealdash.com, online auctions since 2009. this playstation 5 sold for only 50 cents. this ipad pro sold for less than $34. and this nintendo switch, sold for less than $20. i got this kitchenaid stand mixer for only $56. i got this bbq smoker for 26 bucks. and shipping is always free. go to dealdash.com right now and see how much you can save. you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75% a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers? have we piqued your interest? you can get two unlimited lines for just $30 each a month. there are no term contracts or line activation fees. and you can bring your own device. oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for you. it's not just possible. so this week we got a very interesting preview of a very important case. jack smith's trial strategy in the federal indictment of donald trump's efforts to undermine the 2020 election. last month trump's lawyers asked the judge in the case, judge tanya chutkan, to dismiss language from the indictment that linked trump to the violence of january 6th. and the special counsel's team responded to that this week calling trump's request a meritless effort to evade the indictment's clear allegations that the defendant is responsible for the events that the capitol on january 6th. the defendant knew that the crowd that he had gathered in washington for the certification was going to be angry. despite this knowledge or perhaps because of it, the defendant told knowing lies about the vice president's role in the congressional certification and directed the crowd to march to the capitol and fight. the special counsel plans to join two narratives here, one trump lied about election fraud, and two, he incited violence as a last resort to stay in power. this is from politico today. by combining trump's allegations of election fraud with the riot, jack smith is unlocking a mountain of case law enveloped in the january 6th riot cases to tie trump more clearly to the violence than he has been to date. in short smith is casting trump as one of the 1 it is 200 plus riot defendants who have already been charged. joining me now is mary mccord and former acting assistant attorney general for national security. she's also the co-host of the msnbc podcast "prosecuting donald trump." mary, it is great to see you tonight. we've not talked enough about the filings this week from the special counsel's office. this is very significant in that it ties all those jan 6 cases to the looming trial on donald trump. can you explain to me the significance of uniting those two as they call it mountains of case law? >> yeah, you know, first i have to say it's kind of funny to me how this has come up because a motion to strike parts of an indictment is really kind of a silly motion. it isn't made very often. the indictment isn't even given to the jury. and whether the court strikes it or not, and i don't think the court will for all the reasons jack smith argues, it's kind of meaningless when it comes to trial. what it may show is trump is willing to file a motion to actually prohibit the introduction of the evidence that jack smith has now said in its response thal he'll be introducing. but i think, you know, what we're seeing now is really just a further ebs plngz of what was already in the indictment, right? the indictment showed that multi-prong effort beginning with the lies, the pressure on state legislators, the pressure on the fraudulent electors to meet, the pressure on vice president pence, the culmination with the riot during which trump himself added fuel to the fire. remember at 2:24 well into the riot, trump tweets out mike pence didn't have the courage to do what needed to be done and the u.s. demands the truth and looking down at the indictment. so already it did tie him to the violence, but here we're seeing exactly what the government says it intends to introduce, right? video evidence, geolocation evidence, audio evidence, things to show that the things they do are relevant meaning they tend to prove evidence more probable than that and relevant. they are important to show the motive and intent of donald trump, things that he did during the riot, things that he said after shows that he intended all along to obstruct that official proceeding, he intended all along for his conduct to resolve in overriding the will of the people and that it provides important context as well for explaining the entire -- remember he charges three different conspiracies. we see it in much greater details of preview of what that trial -- what the evidence will show at trial. >> particularly when you talk about the evidence smith is planning to introduce that maybe trump would like to see blocked, there's a particular part of it that i thought was intriguing, and this is a quote from the government's response to trump's motion. testimony will establish that the defendant was informed of though indifferent to the fact the vice president had to be evacuated from the senate to a secure location. although the defendant knew the senate certification proceedings had been interrupted and suspended, he rejected multiple end treaties to calm the rioters. mary, that sure sounds like someone had testified about what was happening in the west wing or in the white house during the insurrection, what was going on with donald trump. it's kind of a black hole in terms of information. and my mind immediately went to mark meadows who we know is cooperating or talk to jack smith at least three times and granted immunity in all this. >> certainly this representation shows the government believes they can prove that donald trump was well aware of what was happening not just based on watching the videos, you know, as we heard from cassidy hutchinson that he was watching video or i should just say live television of the riots but also that he was well aware of the evacuation of mike pence, as you say. and so they wouldn't be putting it in there if they didn't have the proof. and i think, you know, your speculation that it's meadows is probably as good as any because certainly we know from cassidy hutchinson that he was in contact with the president, you know, throughout that day. >> i do wonder, mary, the prosecution would also like to know whether trump was going to assert an advice of council defense. if he does assert that, that intitles jack smith to more evidence i