headquarters in new york city. all signs are pointing to a potentially huge breakthrough in gaza. dozens of women and children held by hamas may be on the verge of coming home. nbc news learned there is a tentative deal to secure their release in exchange for as many as 150 palestinian prisoners and a five-day break in the fighting. that's according to a senior u.s. official and a source familiar with the talks in the region. here is president biden a short time ago. >> very close. very close. could bring the hostages home very soon. and we have more to say, we will. but things are looking good at the moment. >> if the deal holds, it would be an answered prayer to the families of those hostages. what does it mean for the future of the war? and to the hostages left behind? plus, a really important hearing, one of donald trump's co-defendants in georgia could get sent back to jail. will the judge revoke harrison floyd's bail over a series of social media posts, including nine of them targeting election worker ruby freeman. and if the decision is to put floyd behind bars, could donald trump's post put him at risk of the same fate? even his floyd's own attorneys are asking him today, going after him, is the d.a. using a double standard. that's what they want to know. as if traveling for the holidays isn't tough enough, look at this massive storm from the great lakes to the gulf coast, dumping rain, wind and snow on millions trying to make it to thanksgiving dinner. how bad will it be where you are? more on that coming up. we begin with new hope on day 46 of the brutal israel hamas war. all sides suggesting there is a tentative deal to release hostages and pause fighting. that's according to a senior u.s. official and source familiar with the talks. any deal would require approval from israel's government is which is convening as we speak. prime minister benjamin netanyahu has been in a whirlwind of critical meetings with his war cabinet and political cabinet. in light of the developments regarding the release of our abductees. the agreement as it now stands would include around 50 israeli international women and children be exchanged around for 150 israeli held palestinian prisoners in this first phase. our sources say there would be a four to five day pause in fighting to get the hostages out and more fuel trucks and aid into the gaza strip. keir simmons joins me now from tel aviv. what more do we know about where things stand at this hour? >> reporter: you described it exactly right, that meeting of the israeli government happening right now. prime minister netanyahu met with his war cabinet. we think we are -- we strongly think they are talking about this tentative deal and any moment now we could hear the decision of the israeli government, we think it is very likely to be an agreement and then there will be an announcement. the announcement may come from the qataris. and that announcement, i think, will outline some of the things you have described that appears to be a deal on the table according to two sources as you say, a senior administration official and source with knowledge of the talks in the region that there would be the release of 50 hostages, women and children, the elderly and that would happen over a period of a number of days, four to five, and that then if that goes well and this has been such a difficult process, you have to put that caveat in there, if that goes smoothly, we might see an extension of that pause and further hotages being released. the deal as we understand it would include the release of 150 palestinian women and children held by the israelis so 150 for -- three for one. and that might take 24 hours. there is a law here in israel that says you -- families who are the victims of somebody in prison here can go to the supreme court and oppose their release from prison. that may take a little time that part. that may delay things. as we speak right now, there is not a family of a hostage who knows for sure their family is coming out. it is an incredibly difficult moment for them. and they may have to wait some time because the focus has been on civilians and there are also members of the israeli military who are held as hostages and they may well be the last to be freed in any kind of a deal. >> keir simmons, thank you so much. appreciate it. nbc's raf sanchez is in tel aviv for us, just spoke to the mother of one of the hostages about this tentative deal. what did she tell you? >> reporter: as keir was saying, we expect that this first transfer of hostages will be some 50 women and children and the people likely to be released last are both the soldiers and men of military age. we just spoke to a mother named shelly and her son omar was kidnapped from the music festival in the early hours of october 7th. he turned 21 in captivity, the last she saw of him he was handcuffed in the back of a hamas pickup truck being carried into gaza, and she is painfully aware that her son will not be at the front of the line for these releases. take a listen to our conversation. >> i understand it will be children and women. and i'm a mother and omar is my child. and i want omar back home. >> and, chris, i asked her a painful question, whether she is emotionally prepared for the possibility that it could be years of negotiations before her 21-year-old son is released. she told me no, no, no, no, he has to come out. chris? >> it is unfathomable, honestly what the families are going through. i want to show you what is happening in real time right now. we have some live pictures. families of the hostages are protesting the netanyahu government. there you see them, holding signs, even as we know it is likely, it is likely as we heard from keir that this deal will go through. i also want to ask you about reporting this morning on a number of iron dome intercepts that i know that you have been seeing that are fired into israel. what do we know about that? what is going on right now? >> reporter: yeah, just in the last hour or so there has been a fairly large barrage of rockets from gaza into central israel where we are now. counterintuitively, chris, that may be a good sign. in our experience, when you often see in the final hours before the cease-fires come into effect is these palestinian militant groups, hamas, palestinian, islamic jihad, get ing blows in before the guns go silent. it is something we have seen many times in the past and it is possible this relatively large barrage of rockets is a further signal that these militant groups know that a cease-fire is coming. we did hear earlier from the political leader of hamas, ismail haniya, he said he believes that a truce is coming. but, chris, these fire deals are difficult to negotiate. they can be more difficult to uphold and one of the complicated factors here is you have thousands of israeli troops inside of gaza, surrounding gaza city, just streets away from palestinian fighters. and so trying to make sure that these two sides do not open fire on each other during this cease-fire period, do not interrupt the process of getting these hostages out is one of the many complications in the day ahead. >> raf sanchez, thank you. to washington now and gabe gutierrez is at the white house for us. u.s. officials always stress any deal is tenuous to say the least. but the president sounded a bit optimistic. how confident is the white house right now, the folks you're talking to, this is going to happen? >> reporter: the operative word right now is cautious. president biden said that a deal was, quote, very close. things are looking good. i want to tell you about a briefing moments ago from john kirby. he was very careful not to get into details about this potential deal, not confirm any of the details publicly. the tentative deal right now involves potentially 50, around 50 hamas hostages in exchange for 150 palestinian prisoners. but something that john kirby did say a short time ago, he talked about the amount of humanitarian aid that has gotten into gaza over the last 24 hours. 20,000 gallons of fuel, also 50 humanitarian aid trucks. and according to a source familiar with the talks in the region, as you mentioned, this potential deal could have the impact of up to 3 to 400 trucks of humanitarian aid going into the gaza strip each day. i asked the admiral whether the rafah crossing could handle that, he made the point previously before the war, the crossing was handling some 500 trucks a day. something he did bring up, he asked the question, you know, in broad strokes, without confirming the details of this deal, how long could it potentially take for some of these hostages to be moved out of gaza. we're hearing reports of this potential four to five-day cease-fire. could it happen that something admiral kirby brought up, we simply don't know the condition the hostages may be in. they may not know what their physical conditions is. he said it could take hours if not days for those hostages to physically be moved. but, again, we're awaiting the latest details on what this could potentially mean. there is a source familiar with the talks in the region that is talking about the suspension of overhead drone surveillance flight in order for hamas to consolidate the hostages. maybe in different places, maybe held by different groups, so still a lot of unanswered questions now. but right now the white house being very careful what it says publicly until the israeli government approves this deal, chris. >> gabe gutierrez, thank you. coming up, ellen pincus on how the back deal negotiations move the needle and what is going on behind closed doors right now to get it done. we're back in 60 seconds. now toe we're back in 60 seconds to m. now i'll be smelling fresh all day long. [sniff] still fresh. ♪♪ get 6x longer-lasting freshness, plus odor protection. try for under $5! more on that breaking news that a senior u.s. official and source familiar with the talks in the region are telling nbc news about a tentative deal for the release of hostages trapped in gaza, which could shape up to be the biggest diplomatic breakthrough since the start of this brutal war. i want to bring in "new york times" chief white house correspondent and msnbc political analyst peter baker. and former u.s.-israeli counsel general in new york, ambassador alan pincus. thank you for being with us. you have been part of high stakes decision-making meetings for the israeli government. the series of meetings that benjamin netanyahu is in, what is going on behind closed doors? >> let me divide this into two. to explain to the viewers the mechanics. there are three circles here. a war cabinet that doesn't have a constitutional or a statuary position, but it did vote for the deal. then there is the cabinet and then the full government. the full government is the one authorized to agree to the deal and that's what is going on right now. there seemed to be and, again, this is from inside the room, but indirectly as you can imagine, that the extreme right wing coalition members are against the deal. that doesn't mean there won't be a majority of members of the full cabinet, of the full government, but it is still -- not consensual. not going to be unanimous. the second thing is really, you know, we're all talking and all happy about the -- you correctly pointed out this is -- the question is will there be a real cease-fire in the immediate aftermath of the release of the hostages? will it be immediate? will it really last four to five days? and what happens on day five or day six? that's a big question because i think the u.s. is impressing israel to tone down the intensity of the military operations. so these are the two basic questions, if this will be approved and whether a cease-fire is 2u8ly actuariable. >> it is a simple majority, is that right, that has to give the okay to this. let me take the other part of what you said, do you think both sides can and will take true to any kind of pause? >> in one word, no. probably not. the reason why is that you have to understand there is a gap between how each side key fi de victory. for israel, obliteration of hamas would be considered a win. for that to win, you need to occupy the gaza strip to be honest. this is not something israel wants to do. i'm sure peter can elaborate on that. that's not something the u.s. wants. on the other hand, for hamas, standing on their feet, shooting -- launching a few missiles and coming out with a bunch of flack, that could be suffice to declare victory. between these two contrasting definitions, i don't see a cease-fire holding. >> there are believed to be ten americans among the hostages. president biden said, quote, we have been work on this inten intensively for weeks. what role has the president and others play the in all this and have you got any indication americans might be among the hostages that are going to be leased. >> even if someone are released, doesn't mean all would be released. the americans, the biden administration is pretty deeply involved. the president's coordinator for the middle east affairs is in the region. they have been working with the intermediaries with hamas and played a very constructive role here and i think they have confidence this can be brought to fruition. as you pointed out, that's 50, there is more than 200 totals there. the ambassador's point, the reason why there is opposition is not because people don't want the hostages to come home, but if you have a pause for five days, what do you do to get it going again? if you have not demolished their capacity to launch future terrorist attacks, is the pressure from the outside world so great that you cannot restart a military mission once it is paused. it is a very open question whether it could last five days and if it does last five days, whether, you know, we go forward again with another military operation or whether there might be more hostages to be released under future negotiations. >> so, is the sense then that -- and i realize all of this is a great unknown, peter, but still, there is no expectation that even if they came out and announced this deal and then there could be a 24-hour waiting period, they have 24 hours to clank the relief of any prisoners on the israeli side, is there any expectation that israel knows what 2 would do or knows what it would do if and when they feel they can stop the military campaign? >> there is talk now, if you hit the southern part of gaza, there are a lot of civilians, have taken shelder and there is concerns about that in washington. the expansion into the south is a worrisome possibility here inning with a. we don't know what would happen after five days if there is a five-day pause. that's the bigger question. they don't call it a cease-fire. they want it to be a pause with the impication it would. start up again. politically that might be the pressure so enormous that it does. it leaves israel in a position where they have to decide whether they want to accomplish the goals they want to accomplish by degrating hamas's ability to make war. that's not something anybody else would want to try. >> we have been showing a picture of an empty podium flanked by the israeli flogs. we're expecting to get an update. what questions might we got answered here, do you think? >> let's not forget brigadier rear admiral is a military spokesman. he's not authorized to make any political statements. i think what you can expect from him are just details, at this point extraordinarily important. he will describe the contours of those reached now qatari and american mediation. egypt for example. i think he will describe the military aspect of it. he is not going to talk about the duration of the cease-fire, or indeed, i think peter alluded to that, chris, he's not going to describe, not going into what we commonly refer to as the day after. even if there is a cease-fire, who controls gaza, who governs gaza, does israel stay or leave. secretary of state blinken has been very clear about that, as has national security adviser jake sullivan. israel hasn't made clear at all what its day after vision or coherent framework is. what you can expect from him, i can see it in the background, you can expect just the details, the military and operational details, nothing political. >> let's listen to the briefing now. >> we must first say we have a moral commitment so the safety of the hostages and to bring them back home to their families. our hearts are with the hostages in gaza, children, women, and the elderly. also including idf soldiers kidnapped by a ruthless terror args and held in gaza. we are going to do everything we can to bring them back as quickly as possible. the chief of general staff conducted a situation estimate inside the gaza strip with the reservist soldiers. he told them the ground maneuver is bringing achievements. we will continue to exert pressure in hamas until we achieve the goals of the war, we will update the families of the hostages we have regarding their loved ones. as for this difficult mat, i suggest i recommend you only listen to reports from official agencies. we will tell you the truth once we have the details. once we have these. these will report. they have continued to deepen their activities and achievements in gaza. we have finished circling the jabalia region and continued battles catching terrorists. we have the upper hand in never battle. we continue today to expose the underground spear of the hamas tunnels including under the shifa hospital. they are using the patients and doctors as human shields, human shields for terrorists this is a war crime. this is in contradiction to national law and we're going to continue this to the world so they stop this message. we are nipping in the bud any immediate threat on our territory. this is a battle area where hamas launches terrorist activities and hezbollah is a terrorist organization walking -- we have attacked various military compounds and production facilities of the hezbollah terror organization. that is in response to their opening fire on civilian areas in the north of israel. no one hash injured or killed. we are ready. we are constantly updating the home front command instructions. please follow them. they save lives. we have informed the families of 390 idf fatalities who have been killed in action while defending our borders. we will continue to support them and be with them. questions? the book ground of the imminent hostage deal, what happens if the hamas rebuilds out on the agreement whether forces are there. there is progress on the outline involving the hostages. this needed to bed agreed on. we are focusing on the fighting. we know how to deal with never decision it pro tem our operation and achievement. i suggest you wait until thicks are finalized, until they're finalized, they're not finalized. it could be a long okay. hopefully it won't be but it could be. >> how will we know what happening in gaza while our drones are not in the air? >> let me repeat what i just said. these are important questions, a lot of details here. there is a certain outline we are trying to materialize it. the idf will know how to abide to any agreement and also maintain operational achievements. we're torching about a long-term war. this is going to be a long war. there are goals to this war that have been decided upon in order to reach these geels it is going to take a long time so we will know how to maintain our operational achievements as well as to prepare to the next stages of the war. from channel 14 news. the imminent cease-fire, will it give hamas some time to regroup and organize for further compat and how will it impact further maneuver in the gaza strip. i want to bring back our guest. i think you called it exactly going into this, what we might here. is there anied meline for you beyond what yo