fascinating move, he's calling on the supreme court to weigh in and decide on donald trump's claim that immunity, once and for all. meanwhile, no trump, no trial, at least for today. the former president's civil fraud trial on hold until tomorrow after he says he will not, in fact, testify as promised. so why the last-minute change of heart? could it impact the judge's thinking as he weighs the future of trump's business empire in new york. plus, it doesn't matter what the other candidates do. it doesn't matter what they say. quote, i'm voting for trump. those are the words of an iowa voter backing up the numbers in our new poll showing trump beating everyone else in the race combined. what are the chances any of that changes in the next five weeks? could harvard's governing board cut ties with president claudine gay just a year after she was chosen to lead the school over her remarks about anti-semitism and how over 650 faculty members are on the record wanting her to keep her job. we start with the tale of two trials, two men facing the financially devastating reality that there is a price to be paid for telling lies. for donald trump, that price could be a quarter billion dollars and his company's exile from new york city. even with those stakes, the former president decided in a last-minute reversal, not to testify at his civil fraud trial today, skipping his final chance to defend his company and his reputation. different story in d.c. where his former attorney, roug rudy giuliani is facing the jury in person. we learned jury selection is complete and the trial will start when they come back from lunch. giuliani has been in court all day, just feet away from two election workers he wrongly accused of election fraught. i want to bring in lisa rubin and nbc's vaughn hillyard, both with me here in new york. also with us, former federal prosecutor, renato mariotti. let's start with this breaking news. big move by jack smith. what do you make of it? >> i think it's a brilliant move. essentially what they're saying, we're going to do whatever we can to get a ruling on presidential immunity as we can. first we'll ask the court of appeals to expedite its briefing schedule, but not going to wait for them. in the meantime we're going to ask the supreme court for what's called certiorari where you leapfrog the court of appeals. my friend who is a law professor at the university of texas has written extensively about this. i asked him, how many times has this been used in recent years? it was granted zero times between august 2004 and february of '19. but 19 times since february of 2019. it became a popular procedural maneuver during the trump years. you see the special counsel using it against the same allies that were the big benefactors of this mechanism during the trump years. >> renato, why so popular and why would jack smith decide to do this now? >> i too think this is an implicit exception that trump could use this issue to delay the trial. usually motions to dismiss aren't brought up on appeal before trial. they usually don't delay criminal trials. this is an issue that very well might. i think jack smith made a judgment call. he decided trump could slow play this appeal and try to use this as a way of delaying the trial. he has i think taken a very aggressive move to try to get an immediate decision on this as we just discussed a moment ago, in order to essentially keep that march trial on track. >> so vaughn, it's one thing to talk about it as a trial strategy. how does it fit in as a political campaign strategy, if it is, delay, delay, delay? >> right now this is the one case, the one criminal case that donald trump is staring at that could take place before the 2024 election. each of the others we do not anticipate coming to conclusion until well into 2025. for donald trump and the ability to potentially delay this really just allows him to continue to keep these criminal prosecutions on the forefront of voters' minds without it ever actually being litigated inside a courtroom. for donald trump, this is his opportunity. you can see jack smith believing they can take this to the supreme court. if they can at least, under the situation of having it heard by the supreme court before the end of this next term, even if it's delayed, at least the supreme court would be making their decision come june. so in that situation, while the march 4th trial date may not be the date that this trial begins, at least it would still happen in the intervening months before the november 2024 elections. >> given, renato, how important this is, how consequential to the election, what will they look at in deciding whether to take this case, and if they do, in deciding how they're going to rule? >> first of all, i think the supreme court should take this case. this case is going to end up in front of the supreme court. really, if the supreme court doesn't take this case now, it's going to be because they want to see what the d.c. circuit is going to say. they're going to say they would like the benefit of seeing what a lower court has to say. i really think this is a case that belongs to the supreme court. i wouldn't be surprised if the supreme court ultimately grants this -- i was going to say unusual request. as lisa points out, maybe not as unusual recently. i think we're going to look at these issues, one thing i'll point out, chris, this is the rare criminal case that actually does have novel issues that have not been presented before. trump is arguing, for example, the fact that he was impeached and survived that trial gives him immunity. that's never happened before because no president has ever been indicted before. certainly no president has been impeached and then indicted. there are some issues here, but realistically when you look at the text of the constitution, they all appear to be losers for trump which is why this is something that ultimately the supreme court should resolve and get out of the way before there is a trial. >> so before this big breaking news today, lisa, the big news was that donald trump instead of staying contrary, i'm actually not going to be the final witness. you told me you had a feeling he shouldn't show. why? >> there are a bunch of reasons i thought he wouldn't. let's start with the first being the existence of the gag order. i think trump's lawyers genuinely doubted whether their client could add lear to the gag order and, therefore, could have been inviting further sanctions that go well beyond fines. more importantly, every time donald trump has taken the stand or a witness chair at a deposition, in his own defense civilly and otherwise, he hasn't done himself any favors. that was true in the e. jean carroll case and the protest cases in front of trump tower in 2015, as it has been in this case where he testified on november 6th. a bunch of damning admissions, even though he didn't see them to be the case, he literally handled them a bouquet of courts to be presented. >> vaughn, we saw trump last week. he was all in. he was going to go and he had his lawyers going out there and saying, well, it's against our better judgment, but he really wants to go out there and defend himself. what happened? what's the political calculation? we know what the legal calculation is. >> the legal calculation is the judge literally said he was drawing negative inferences from donald trump's own statements when he testified for those multiple hours months ago. but chris kise walked outside the courtroom and said it was the best performance he'd ever seen one of his clients give in his career. alina hava who very much plays the lawyer inside the courtroom, but also the political aide. she stood outside and said only cowards are afraid, only cowards don't show up. 48 hours later they announce donald trump was president going to come forward. for donald trump here politically, it provides him the opportunity to make the case to the masses at large that he went and spoke the words and gave his true account of the trump organization to letitia james and took it to her. at the same time he was not going to allow himself to be played anymore by what he says is a corrupt prosecution and a corrupt judge. so for donald trump, he feels like he's done what he has to do. >> he can fundraise off of it whatever he decides ultimately. give us to speed, renato on what's happening with rudy giuliani. his trial is about damages, of course. in his case a federal jury will decide how much. as we said, the jury selection has and ended. they're about to start the trial. what will they be looking at to make that decision? >> ultimately the defense here is really that at this point, almost non-existent, there's no question these women have suffered. they'll be determining, whether you're dealing with harms that are not out of pocket. it's easy if someone has been harmed, spent x number of dollars. those are the easy sorts of damages to calculated when you're looking at a receipt. it's a hard thing for a juror who is weighing these costs that you can't sum up into a receipt or invoice, where these women have been harmed in a way that you can't really put a number on. that's ultimately what the jury is going to be doing. it's not an easy job. candidly, you're looking at the photos now. you can't imagine a more sympathetic plaintiff here or a less sympathetic defendant than rudy giuliani. >> lisa, he is certainly right about that. many, many, many hours all of us watched of the january 6th hearings, it was riveting and heartbreaking to listen to moss and freeman, what they went through, how their lives have been upended. i'm curious what you'll be listening for, both from them but also from -- do you think there are things that can play into other trials. >> i think what testimony ruby freeman and her daughter shaye moss give here, will be a good indication of what kind of witnesses they will make both, if the georgia rico case is tried, but also in the federal election interference case where there are also expected to be witnesses. again, what i'm expecting to hear from them is exactly what renato said, how do you quantify somebody's pain and suffering, how do you quantify that i used to be a person who wore my lady ruby t-shirt to the hospital and now i hide inside. we haven't seen her in public since that televised testimony. the same with her daughter. i'm interested in hearing them say how this has impacted their lives and how continued ongoing threats have made it difficult for them to have any semblance of the life they had before the november 2020 elections. >> lisa rubin, vaughn hillyard, renato mariotti, thank you for being with us, especially for the breaking news. coming up, if a republican presidential hopeful drops out of a race, what happens to their supporters? new polling now suggests who benefits the most. communities are picking up the pieces after deadly tornadoes tore through tennessee, the harrowing stories of extreme loss and survival when we're back in 60 seconds. >> i just remember opening the closet door and just turning around. the wind just took me and i remember waking up on this side of my house. er waking up on thi of my house. in studies, the majority of people reached an a1c under 7 and maintained it. i'm under 7. ozempic® lowers the risk of major cardiovascular events such as stroke, heart attack, or death in adults also with known heart disease. i'm lowering my risk. adults lost up to 14 pounds. i lost some weight. ozempic® isn't for people with type 1 diabetes. don't share needles or pens, or reuse needles. don't take ozempic® if you or your family ever had medullary thyroid cancer, or have multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2, or if allergic to it. stop ozempic® and get medical help right away if you get a lump or swelling in your neck, severe stomach pain, or an allergic reaction. serious side effects may include pancreatitis. gallbladder problems may occur. tell your provider about vision problems or changes. taking ozempic® with a sulfonylurea or insulin may increase low blood sugar risk. side effects like nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea may lead to dehydration, which may worsen kidney problems. living with type 2 diabetes? ask about the power of 3 with ozempic®. if there was any thought that a shrinking republican presidential field would help donald trump's competition, think again. as our brand new nbc news/"des moines register" poll shows, trump is expanding his lead to a whopping 51% in the state that will vote first next year, 32 points ahead of his closest competitor ron desantis who has 19% support, nikki haley 16%. one poll respond dent said, it doesn't matter what the others say and do, his vote is going to trump no matter what. in fact, a whopping 49% say their minds are made up. 46% say they could still be persuaded to vote for another candidate. joining us, matthew dowd, senior msnbc political analyst. michael steele is former rnc chair and msnbc political analyst. this iowa pollster behind the survey says everything that can happen has happened in this contest, yet trump is now past the majority threshold with 51%. what's the game plan now? >> the trump sources have spent $250 million in eight months and have gone from 15 points behind to more than 25 points behind in every key state including the latest iowa poll, in iowa, new hampshire, south carolina. they have fally fallen further behind. they haven't run a campaign to take on the main candidate in this race. everybody with the exception of chris christie who has had nothing to spend on media, has gone after each other. their strategy has made no sense for me from the start. it's all fed into donald trump dominating this. one of the numbers you didn't show, of the people that have made up their mind, donald trump wins the vast majority. his support is more solid than ron desantis and nikki haley. my guess is they don't change their strategy in the course of this. this is a race where donald trump without ever appearing on a-bate stage, continues to sow up. >> is it that donald trump is right, he believes if he shot someone on fifth avenue, it would be fine. he has been operating on the idea that no matter what he does, no matter what he says, he can turn it into they're trying to hurt me, i need you to defend me, or is it both? >> it's more than that. it's more the realization that he knows his audience, knows his best, and knows the american public writ large better than we know ourselves. we think e we're not susceptible to the giles and the sort of wonderful words of donald trump. apparently we are because, yeah, he could shoot someone and get away with it. he's done everything just short of that and gotten away with it. even though he's going through the trial process right now, even still, his numbers aren't diminishing, they're strethening. 46% are locked in, 46% ready to be persuaded. i think that 49% is higher, i think 46% is much lower. i think people don't want to let you know they've already locked in on donald trump. otherwise how is he beating by joe biden by four points, five points, seven points, ten points in various polls? there are a lot more people out there buying the lie, for whatever their rationale is, than are willing to freely admit it to the pollster who are part of the problem as far as a lot of these folks are concerned. don't even get them started on the media. this all works to his advantage. he knows how to use and punk the people that are in play here. >> matthew, a couple of other polls from cnn show president biden now trailing former president trump in a pair of key battleground states, georgia. trump leads 49-44. although that is within the poll's margin of error. in michigan, trump leads biden 50% to 40%. that is outside the margin of error. do those numbers surprise you? >> no. here is what i think. i counsel your viewers to do this. average polls. one poll can be out of sync. donald trump is not 10 appointments ahead newspaper michigan. joe biden is also not winning michigan. just average the polls. here is my feeling about this race. i hope the they understand this. donald trump and joe biden are basically even nationally. if you look at the average, they're basically even nationally. if they play an even race nationally, donald trump wins all the key states. he lost nationally by four or five points in 2020 and barely lost the key states. so that's what i think the biden campaign needs to know. at some point the biden campaign needs to let go of running this as a referendum on joe biden or on bidenomics. here are the choices, democracy versus dictatorship. the biden campaign hasn't done that enough, and i think they've spent way too much time, way too much time trying to make this is a referendum on bidenomics, and that today feeds right into republicans' hands. >> all right, michael. in that same poll, almost half the voters in michigan and georgia say this: if true, the criminal charges trump faces relating to the effort to overturn the last presidential election should disqualify him from the presidency. should disqualify him, 46%. does this remind us of just how much can happen in 11 months? does it support matthew's theory about defense of democracy? or do you think -- you clearly do. the other poll, well, maybe people aren't saying exactly what they mean. >> oh, it's a lie. that is such a lie. it is such a lie. you know why it's a lie? >> why? >> because you watch presidential candidates stand on the stage and say if donald trump were a convicted felon standing before us in leg irons and an orange jumpsuit, that i would stand up and vote for him and support him for president. you have peter major, former member of congress, voted for impeachment, running for the u.s. senate in michigan say, oh, donald trump, oh, all about the guy, love him, support him, no problem, even though i supported impeaching him, i think he'll be a better presidt, an anti-democratic republican presiden tn the pro-democrats democratic president. so no, those numbers to me are a lie. people are outright lying. if donald trump is convicted, if he's going through the trial process, they will be like those individuals on that stage and support him. that's the democrat problem. that's the point that matt has just made, that they have to move off of this. oh, let's talk bidenomics, let's talk about the country and remind people. this man himself has told us, not joe biden, not matthew doushgsd michael steele, he himself has told us he would be a dictator for one day. who is a dictator for one dap, america? who in american history has been a dictator for one day? when the man tells you he's going to be a dictator and you have people out there saying, well, maybe, possibly, i'm soft, this is a real problem. >> matthew dowd, thank you so much for being with us. michael, you're going to stay with us. in tennessee, meantime, residents are facing destruction after tornadoes and severe storms killed at least six people and sent another 62 to the hospital. among those killed a mother and her 2-year-old son. local outlets reporting that when they were found, her arms were still wrapped around the toddler, crushed but their mobile home in the nashville suburb of madison. here is some of what we're hearing from survivors. >> literally felt like the whole house was shaking, the foundation. we could hear all the trees snapping. >> you could hear stuff flying everywhere. it was crazy, crazy. it is terrifying. all this material stuff can be replaced, but friend can't. >> crazy and deadly. officials say the twisters packed winds of more than 150 miles per hour demolishing buildings in at least 15 counties. coming up, israeli leaders say they see the beginning of the end of hamas. what this might mean for hostages still trapped in gaza as conditions rapidly deteriorate. you're watching "ch