in america for barack obama? the u.s. added 200,000 jobs last month. that absolutely trounce expectations and it brought the unemployment rate down to 8.5%. now, that is the fourth month in a row that we have seen a drop in the unemployment rate. we are now at the lowest level in almost three years. prior to the crisis. but where did we see the growth? health care and manufacturing are the two areas that stand out. manufacturing in fact may surprise you, but really been the area bouncing back all year. i want to put all this in perspective because it's really important for the election. i'm going to call this a pie. it represents the 8.7 million jobs lost since the recession began in 2008. that is a whole lot of jobs. all right. since then, though, 2.5 million jobs have been added. now, that's about 30% of the pie. so you can see it as positive because it's improvement and it is, but you could also say more than two-thirds of that pie is still red and that's a problem. there is one thing that's good news for the president. the bottom line. the unemployment rate may be high, but the absolute number is not what matters when it comes to getting re-elected. that's about the trend. every president running for re-election since world war ii has won when the unemployment rate was falling and lost when it was going up. best example, get ready -- >> it's morning again in america. today, more men and women will go to work than ever before in our country's history. with interest rates at about half the record highs of 1980. >> hmm, pretty good sell. that was ronald reagan's iconic re-election ad. now, this is pretty amazing. the unemployment rate when ronald reagan was getting ready to get re-elected, 8.5%. sound familiar? it is absolutely identical to the number you heard this morning, 8.5% right now for barack obama. but what made it morning in america for ronald reagan? in the year prior to his election, this is the magic number. the jobless rate dropped to 7.2%. the president needs the jobless rate to drop like it did for ronald reagan if he wants to be re-elected. that's really the bottom line. what the unemployment number is next year is crucially important. so is it morning in america? john avalon joins us, jamal simmons and david fromme, cnn contributor. all right, john, i've got to say i was pretty amazed at the coincidence that 8.5% was unemployment a year out from reagan's re-election. by the way, that number for barack obama is down a full percent from a year ago, but it's the next six months that matter. >> that's exactly right. the symmetry is amazing and the trend is obama's friend. this is great news for the country and good news for obama's re-election campaign. but the real issue is the dynamic. what was behind the drop in unemployment when ronald reagan was in office was also massive greet in gdp, 8% in the third quarter of 1983. so president obama will have to hope for a lot more of this. but the momentum, he's got it on his side, that's good news for the country and good news for his re-election bid. >> what do you say, david? >> i like good news. i was there in the '80s. the economy took off like a rocket. this economy is taking off like a big, heavy blimp. in 1983 unemployment dropped by two points and then dropped by another 1.3, 1.5 in 1984. last year, 2011, we saw nothing like the kind of growth americans saw as john says in 1983 and we hope for more growth in 1984. it does not feel like morning in america. it may feel like morning after in america. we're clearing the cotton out. >> the pool is smelling up the room like an old frat house. >> it's pretty bad. >> jamal, the president obviously can't come out and celebrate this because of that pie, the fact that there were 8 million jobs lost, but is that how they're feeling? >> yeah, i think they're feeling upbeat. you can't help but wake up and feel things are better today than they were yesterday and certainly are better than zigs months ago. i don't think anybody is uncorking champagne bottles to get ready for a party or the morning after that david seems to be so familiar with. but instead, i could think -- i do think that people are looking at this as a trend line. i would like to temper expectations. i don't think 7.2% is what we're hearing from any of the economists by the timing we get to november. instead i think we'll be somewhere around 8%, but the trend line is what the president will have to sell and he's also going to have to do a pretty good job on whoever the republican nominee is. >> i want to get to the republican response, but one thing just to add a little fervor to your point, as ronald reagan mentioned in that ad, you had interest rates 18% and they were going down. right now there is nowhere for interest rates to go but up and that's very significant for regular people's lives. >> and you had personal incomes going up. the people who are in work who have not lost their jobs do not necessarily feel better or secure. the typical american income after taxes -- sorry, after inflation before taxes is lower than it was in 1997. so you may not have lost your job and you're grateful for that, but you don't feel didn't. >> that's something the republicans have to capitalize on if they're going to be successful. here's how they responded on the campaign trail to the good number today. >> well, i think it's good. it's going in the right direction. but if you measure unemployment by the method that we used to measure it by, it would be twice that. >> i think there might just be some optimism that maybe republicans are going to take the white house and maybe that's spurring people to start taking some risks. >> this president doesn't understand how this economy works. it's time to get a president who does. >> what do you think? >> i think it's beating a dead horse because they know the dance beat. they want to run on bad economic news, so they're not going to adjust their rhetoric if they can avoid it. the reality is, is if america is enjoying a great stability, some modest growth, as ron pollack -- ron paul acknowledged, it should be acknowledged. >> but david, you're saying interest rates are bad but your incomes aren't up, that's nuance. nuance doesn't play in the ridiculous campaign ads that we tend to see. >> no, but every american is the greatest living expert on how that individual american is doing economically. they do not need an ad to tell them they feel better, they feel worse. no one will persuade them that they feel better if they feel worse. one of the things that is a really dangerous sign, we saw it in the rick santorum message, when rick santorum is branding himself the high-risk choice. yeah, if you want to win the election go ahead with mitt romney. but if you want to have fun, choose me. i think republican primary voters are saying i'm going with the low-risk choice. >> jamal, do you think -- go ahead. >> i think the one thing the republicans have to be careful of is not sounding like negative nellies. i don't think the american public want to hear politicians bring them down. they want to hear them talk about what they can do better and how to make it go faster. not necessarily it's not as good as it may look. i think people will end up getting punished for rooting against america rather than being supportive. >> there's something to that. you've got to give him credit. that's political very difficult. >> the thing that romney says in every speech is the president was dealt a hard hand. it's both true but also shows a sense of fairness. >> it helps with independents because you're not saying, look, i'm sticking to my talking points, i'm acknowledging a problem and said dealt a bad hand, could have played it better. if you look at the job decline and that economic freefall that america was in in the final quarter of 2008 and it hits in january of 2009 and then starts to get better, there's a good story to be told. it's tough to tell people it could have been worse, but the reality is it could have been and we are recovering and that's a good sign for all americans, not just democrats. >> it is, jamal, one of those things that has struck me as sort of ridiculous about politics is you could be great or you could be terrible, but you are at the mercy of the economy. >> you are. and the president actually has very few things he can do in terms of short-term things to make it better. i think the president will probably argue that he did a bunch of things in the beginning, people didn't like them, didn't agree with them but we've turned the corner and let's not change course as we dpo into the election. >> thanks to all three of you. if i hear mitt romney talk about 787 billion one more time. thanks to everyone. we'll be following this because it is so crucial and we'll look at the next six months. what's the trend going to be for barack obama? well, we asked our strike team. we've been telling you the 25 top business leaders, investors, entrepreneurs in america and i asked them just the other day if they're going to net higher in 2012. eight of them at a normal rate, two above and four below. interesting. a normal rate, union pacific railroad came in there. the ceo was telling me 1,000 to 1500 jobs. but we're going to put all of this on our strike team website. please take a look at it because those are the people that will do the hiring and firing that drive this election. well, there is many, as 12 million up documented immigrants in this country. does the president's new plan today anount amnesty? and the latest developments of iu.k. murder mystery. a dead woman found at the queen's estate. and the u.s. navy rescues a group of iranian sailors that were attacked by pirates. would mahmoud do that for us? all this "outfront." what makes the sleep number store different? you walk into a conventional mattress store, it's really not about you. they say, "well, if you want a firm bed you can lie on one of those, if you want a soft bed you can lie on one of those." we provide the exact individualization that your body needs. welcome to the sleep number year-end closeout event. not just ordinary beds on sale, but the bed that can change your life on sale. the sleep number bed. it calibrates precisely to your body and your comfort zone. now you can feel what happens as we raise your sleep number setting and allow the bed to contour to your individual shape. oh yeah. it's really shaping to my body. it's the final days to save up to $800 on selected 2011 bed sets. plus, free standard shipping on all beds. you can adjust it however you want so you don't have to worry about buying the wrong mattress. once they get our bed, they're like, "why didn't i do this sooner?" hurry in to the final days of the year-end closeout event and save on the bed that can change your life. the sleep number bed. only at the sleep number store, where queen bed sets now start at just $899. ♪ sing polly wolly doodle all the day ♪ ♪ hah "outfront" tonight, the battle over illegal immigration and the president's polarizing new policy that some say amounts to amnesty. so you've probably heard the number that there could be up to 12 million undocumented people in america right now. but for those who are married to or have kids that are u.s. citizens, the white house now has an offer. come out of the shadows and identify yourself and ask for a green card. to get it, you'll have to leave the country, but now instead of waiting years, maybe even a decade to find out if you can come back, you'll get an answer more quickly and chances of getting a yes to return permanently with a green card, greater. that's the plan. some people are furious about it. is it amnesty? let's bring in chris kobach who helped write arizona's strict new immigration law. on the other side is david leopold from the american immigration lawyers association. good to have you both with us. chris, is this amnesty? >> it's part of an amnesty. it's part two of an administrative amnesty. as we know, the administration a few months ago announced that it was going to drop about 300,000 cases that were in the deportation pipeline. that's one part of the action. this one allows thousands of people who otherwise would have to go out of the country and wait while they see if they can overcome this three-year bar or ten-year bar that congress put into place in 1996, now they can just do it here in the united states. so really if the administration is going to do a backdoor amnesty, they need to take several steps and this is the second of the steps they need to take. so yes, it's part of an amnesty. >> david, why isn't it? >> it's not amnesty. what this is is a minor processing change. what we're doing here, what the administration is doing is keeping u.s. citizens together with their foreign spouses. what we have to remember is that in order to get this waiver, which is done in the united states, they still have to show that the u.s. citizen would suffer a hardship. so nobody is getting anything, erin. this is a process change. this is going to allow people to stay together. this is going to promote family unity. it's going to keep america safer and it's going to be wise use of our tax dollars. what chris is talking about when he uses that word "amnesty," remember, amnesty is a word that people who hate immigration like to throw around instead of solutions. and what this is, this is a solution. this is a solution that allows people to wait in the united states with their family rather than have to go sit in a city like ciudad juarez where people get killed, it's one of the most dangerous cities in the world, and this allows families to stay together. what's wrong with an american husband being with his wife? what's wrong with an american wife being with her husband? nothing. i can't imagine any american would oppose family unity. so i'm very surprised that there's even any opposition to this. >> i thought, david, that once -- if you were married to someone and you could prove that it was legitimate and you hadn't done so in order to get access to the united states, that you could get the card anyway? >> i wish that were the case, erin, but the law is so broken that even if you were married to a united states citizen, you still have to go through various different hoops to stay here. what happens is folks that are in the country who are undocumented and they're married to united states citizens, they can't simply go and apply for a green card. and what happens is the way the law is set up, and the reason we call it a broken law is because the way this law is set up is they have to leave the united states. once they step outside the united states, now they're barred from coming back. >> and there's a reason for that. >> kris, let me ask you that. hold on, david, i want to get kris in here. kris, does that deter people who shouldn't be coming in from coming in? >> yes. >> the fact or not? yes? >> there's a reason congress set this up. congress in 1996 wanted to impose a penalty on illegal aliens, whether they decide to mary a u.s. citizen or not. and that was if you stay in the united states for six months, then if you are caught or if you acknowledge that, you have got to wait three years before you can even get in line in your home country to apply for a lawful visa. if you stay here a year illegally, you are barred for ten years. congress wanted to put people who have broken our laws in a worse position procedurally than those who are in mexico doing it the right way and haven't broken our laws. that's exactly what congress did in 1996. congress did that in 1996. >> that's not a correct statement of the law. >> that's exactly what the law says. >> i'm happy to show you the statute. >> actually i just looked at it -- i'm quite familiar with it. >> what the congress said, kris, and i think you know this, is that if you marry an american citizen, generally speaking, you're forgiven. >> you're talking marriage. we're talking about the ten-year bar. >> if you enter the country without an inspection originally, even if you're a child, you can't get that green card even if you have a large family, even if you're married to a u.s. citizen. you have to get a waiver. >> final word to kris. >> i think the bottom line is i think we probably both agree that what the administration is doing is trying to get around the fact that congress has not passed an amnesty and this administration wants one. i think there's a larger issue here that people on the left and the right can agree on. if we're going to have amnesty, let congress do it. let the people's representatives debate it. let's not have the administration do it in a backdoor way that isn't putting it on the table in front of the people. >> this is common sense enforcement. >> gentlemen, thanks to both of you. please let us know on our facebook page what you think about this and whether there's political motivations as well coming into an election with the hispanic vote. tonight, we have new clues on a murder mystery. investigators say they're very close to identifying the body of a young woman whose age is 15 to 24. the victim, whose body gave no visible clues about how she died, was found a couple of miles outside the queen of england's sandringham estate. the discovery came just two days after the family was vacationing there. the queen is still there. authorities believe the victim could have been dead up to four months but have no idea whether she was murdered on the grounds or her body was dumped there. some of the victim's personal belongings have been found on the premises. that has not helped police solve the mystery. >> when the body was discovered, it was in more of a decomposed state than we initially believed, so that's making identifying it very difficult. for example, police don't believe she was stabbed but there's not enough flesh left on the body to establish whether or not she was stabbed. >> victoria said the teeth and bones have been tested and police will have results in the next three days. with just four days to go until new hampshire, mitt romney has what everybody will acknowledge is a comfortable lead, but another candidate could be surging. who? and farmville, mafia wars, just how much would you pay for those online games? we give you one heck of a number next. [ding] announcer: clean kitchen surfaces, utensils, and hands with soapy water. one in 6 americans will get sick from food poisoning this year. keep your family safer. check your steps at foodsafety.gov. so video game players can be a pretty passionate bunch. they'll spend thousands on games, gear and memberships, but the fan of one game went above and beyond. i mean stratospherically. a chinese man spent $16,000 on a virtual sword. $16,000 on a virtual sword. i'm sorry, i just must live in another century. for the game of wulin. it is not even being released in china until the spring. now, of course, not every gamer is that crazy. sorry if i'm offending some of you who are that rich. but some of the thriftier gamers purchased things for $2500 and the hook of departure sheath for a paltry $1600. well, even if you aren't that into gaming, you'd be surprised just how much people spend on casual games, which brings us to tonight's number. 680,000. that's how many people are estimated to pay more than $1,100 a year to play virtual games on zynga like farmville and mafia wars. they found that the average paying user spends about $280 on zynga's games. still "outfront," the "outfront" five. a parent's plea. >> i miss her so much and i want her home. >> santorum strikes back. >> oh, i'll take on mitt romney, rest assured. i'll take him in on the issues. >> all this "outfront" in our second half. welcome. i understand you need a little help with your mortgage, want to avoid foreclosure. smart move. candy? um-- well, you know, you're in luck. we're e