>> this moment of history belongs to you. you broke barriers and overcame obstacles to pursue the dream of democracy. >> it quickly becomes clear the future of a post-mubarak egypt is anything but certain. dreams of prosperity have yet to be realized as the economy worsens. discontent with the pace of reform of the military council leads to renewed protests in tahrir square. >> eyewitnesses show they're actually breaking the cease fires sometimes that are arranged here and just venting their fury. and there's another round of tear gas. i've got to put the gas mask back on. venting their fury at the police. >> by january 2012 islamists have the political initiative with the muslim brotherhood winning a majority of seats in parliamentary elections. clashes between the military and protesters are again violent and deadly. just one country away, another revolution, an uprising in libya that began in february of 2011 quickly turns into a civil war. in march, opposition fighters are aided by nato bombs, and the battle intensifies. >> reporter: this is proving to be a much tougher battle than anyone had anticipated. this city, key territory, should the pro-gadhafi elements be able to push in here, the concern is that this could potentially turn into a bloodbath. >> seven months of fighting ends with the fall of tripoli in august. two months later, gadhafi is captured and killed. libyans celebrate the possibility of a newfound freedom. but the sudden vacuum of power leads to a rise in regional militias and the transitional government's struggles to control. citing decades of neglect from the central government, the oil-rich eastern part of the country calls for a measure of autonomy. in march of this year, clashes between rival militias threaten to break apart a country held together largely by gadhafi's dictatorship, while weapons from gadhafi's bases spread instability beyond libya's borders. in syria, the arab spring ignites the discontent that's been brewing for years against the oppressive regime of bashar al assad. in march of 2011, demonstrations break out in the poor southern town of dara and quickly spread. >> reporter: anger and passion here is absolutely palpable. we're just a few miles from the center of damascus and the crowd here -- thank you. thank you. this is a crowd here of perhaps several thousand people. they've taken over this whole area. they've put rocks in the road to prevent police coming in here. >> the government response is swift and violent. but the protests continue to grow even as the military begins to use artillery against civilians and government militia murder and torture countless numbers of syrians. in a country with no independent media, ordinary citizens are risking their lives to show the world what's happening, uploading amateur videos of the uprising. the regime insists they're not targeting protesters and repeatedly blame a small group of terrorists for the violence. >> the government allowed peaceful demonstrations to take to the street, and they are protected by the police -- >> that's not true. you know that's not true. you're a very educated man. you simply know that is not true. despite a peace plan put forward by the united nations in the presence of a few hundred u.n. monitors, the violence in syria continues with no end or solution in sight. cnn's nic robertson, arwa damon, ivan robertson and former cia officer bob baer join me now. we talk about the arab spring, but it is more than one season. it still continues. >> absolutely. bahrain, it's a project unfinished. the shiia there are still clamoring for better rights. syria, the free syrian army has emerged. there's an element of almost civil war creeping into the fighting there. this is syria and just beginning. libya, for example, we don't have a centralized government there. elections in egypt. it really is the first phase that we saw last year. this is just -- it's going to keep going step by step by step. >> each of these -- arwa, you've reported in each of these places. each is obviously different. you were most recently in syria when you snuck into homs. how is that different than what you saw in libya and egypt and elsewhere? >> the dynamics of each country are incredibly different which is why the way they're playing out is phenomenally different as is the international communities attitude towards them. syria is much more complex because of its strategic location, because of the various ways that historically syria really for the last few decades has managed to position itself in such a way that it is regionally and internationally relevant. those factors play greatly into how various global leaders are going to be approaching syria. you also have these other dynamics bleeding in from iraq. you have the lebanon dynamic, turkey, of course, heavily involved. so it's no great surprise that syria is playing out very differently and also potentially in a much more bloody fashion than any of the other revolutions across the region. >> ivan, when you look at the map and with all the reporting you've done, turkey, jordan, syria, also obviously egypt during the revolution there, libya, as well, what really stands out at you from the past year, year and a half? >> i think just arab people across the world standing up and saying they don't want their dictators anymore, these sclerotic systems that have been in place. and they're all doing it their own ways, but they feed off of each other. and then of course once the dictator falls, it's what's next. and each country is wrestling with that question differently. and some are handling elections, in some cases the dictators are still clinging to power, in syria's case, trying to kill as many people as possible who say no to them. and they're all struggling with this next phase that's coming next, and that's what's fascinating. the elections in egypt right now, people telling us and our correspondents there they used to just talk about soccer or tv shows, and now all they can talk about is the politicians they can now choose from. that was never an option before. >> we want to in this hour talk about each country, syria, libya, egypt, and what we're seeing in each of those places now as well as what happened. but, bob, as you look at the region, are you optimistic about where things are now, about where they're going over the next 12 months? >> no. i think we're heading toward chaos in the middle east. >> more than what we've seen. >> more than what we've seen, absolutely. something's got to pop. we have to understand how cataclysmic these changes are. i worked in syria for many years, and we always assumed that that regime would always be in place, replaced by one general after another, it would never change. clearly that's not the case. we have now this -- saudi arabia has effectively annexed another country, bahrain. king abdullah controls that country and the national guard. we have libya, which is unfinished revolution. you're going to see it break up in a couple weeks between east and west. you're going to see a fight over the oil facilities. we don't know. now you have lebanon, the mess in syria has come across the border. you have truly a sectarian conflict in front of us there between the sunnis and the shiia. and to predict where this is going to go is -- is fruitless. you can't. >> no one can. >> this is very serious stuff. >> and this administration or any country's administration can really predict. >> i've spent my whole life in the middle east, and i have never seen change so fast or so significant and at the same time so dangerous. >> does it surprise -- having worked for so long in the middle east, to see the amount -- that fear has kind of been put away by people? people seem no longer afraid in so many of these places. they're willing to repeatedly go out in syria and demonstrate knowing they're going to get fired upon. >> they would never have done this. i was in hama in '82 after it was hit. syrians were terrified, terrified of the regime, the secret police. they wouldn't say anything. they're not terrified anymore. >> what changed? >> it's a new generation. some of the things we've heard people say in egypt, in libya, and i think in syria to a degree, as well, is it's a shame my generation, the older generation, is what they say, you know, the parents of these young people who are risking their lives or losing their lives, they're saying it's a shame we weren't strong enough to rise up and do this. >> we saw the young generation in egypt being the ones who really came forward in the early days of the revolution. even in syria, it was children being arrested after graffitiing on the streets of dara in the protests that began. >> and syria has one of the youngest populations in the middle east. it's not surprising. they're also incredibly savvy. when you look at the entire region as a whole and what has happened historically, the entire region was this massive festering cauldron of discontent to say the least. it was eventually going to boil over. the status quo in the middle east could not last. and i think we're just beginning to see it starting right now. this is going to be a very prolonged revolution or whatever we want to call it, and it is going to redraw the map of the region. >> are all these revolutions being co-opted? i mean, in egypt, we've seen -- there was so much talk of democracy and you had essentially a cross-section of the population in tahrir square and, you know, people would give interviews in english saying things would never go back, we're going to be a democracy, we want freedom and it ends up battling it out. >> islam is the default position in all of this, because in times of chaos, people turn to religion. it happens in this country. and they will in the middle east. >> we're seeing a pendulum swinging. i mean, you've had these generals and these families, these so-called, you know, secular regimes that had been in power for 20, 30, 40 years who crushed political islam and tortured its activists for decades. and now that is the natural kind of reaction. let's give these guys a shot. and i think it will be interesting to see as they come to power one by one through elections in different countries how are they going deal with those unemployed young people who have been leading the protest movements and the revolutions? you guys try to govern this youth bulge in these arab countries and see how you do. and maybe some of the glamour or the excitement will wear off of these islamist movements after that. >> because a lot of them are not necessarily built for -- they're not built for running a city. >> the koran is not a constitution. it's not going to work. but they're going to try it. >> a lot more ahead in this hour. more than a year after the arab uprisings began just three autocrats have been fully ousted in tunisia, egypt, and libya. no leaders hanging on tighter than syria, bashar al assad. he's still slaughtering his own people. >> reporter: to get to the upper floors you have to hug the wall because there's one window that's exposed, but this is where you really see the full impact of the damage that was caused by the incoming rounds. i mean, this right here, it just speaks for itself. reporter: this is a rebellion of farmers, of carpenters and university students. the men here describe themselves as members of the free syrian army, but it would be much more accurate to call them an impromptu guard. many of them are defending these olive groves that surround their community with little more than hunting shotguns. >> that was ivan watson reporting from syria back in february before the u.n. brokered the so-called cease-fire that was never never more than mere words. the killings, of course, have continued unabated, and the syrian government is still telling the same lies that we've been reporting on for more than a year now. they're still refusing to grant visas to international reporters to travel freely throughout the country so that we can see for ourselves what's really happening. the closest we've gotten recently or i got recently was when i visited a refugee camp along the turkish/syrian border. 20,000 syrians have taken refuge in turkey alone, and tens of thousands have fled to other countries. nic, ivan, arwa, and bob baer. it was interesting to see ivan's report about back in february the so-called free syrian army. have the forces changed over time? >> i think what we're beginning to see now is a growing fringe element of radical forces. >> jihadists you're talking about? >> islamist forces, whatever you want to call them, the sort of third entity that has emerged if you want to say on the one hand you have government forces, on the other hand this free syrian army, this rebel fighting force, and now this third entity emerging that is more of the islamist force whose ideology, whose desires for the country don't necessarily mesh with that of the opposition but they're sort of latching themselves onto the opposition's cause of wanting to topple this regime. but their long-term goal for syria and the thoughts and what they want to see the country become is not what the opposition wants. of course the risk is this third force gains more power as the opposition continuously feels abandoned by the west, by various international players. who do they have left to turn to to protect themselves at this point in time? >> and that of course fits into the narrative that the assad regime has been repeating all along that this is al qaeda, that these have jihadists they're fighting against, even though when this uprise in syria began in dara and elsewhere it was just regular people demonstrating in the streets, not even calling for the overthrow of assad. they were calling for reforms. you just snuck into syria again with a group of free syrian army. are you hearing those concerns about jihadists, about -- >> yeah. some of these revolutionaries who started out with their peaceful protests waving olive branches are saying they're being pulled over at check points by people asking them if they've gone to pray at the mosque today or asking them why they haven't grown a beard. and these were the one who is started the uprising. so to as this has gone into its month, the uprising is morphing, it's changing, and it's impossible for it not to if you consider the amount, the incredible atrocities that have been committed over the past year and a half. that is going to warp syrian society. it has. and, you know, bob brought up earlier the sectarian element. you know, one scenario could be bashar al assad's sect, there could be none of his people left in that country when the dust finally settles, when this is all done. >> is this just inevitable, bob? i mean, insurgencies, opposition movements, that more radical elements come forward? because some are saying had the u.s. gotten involved or -- >> no. >> -- nato had gotten involved -- >> i don't think we could have ever gotten involved at the beginning. we didn't have any appetite for it. we didn't know what sides were fighting. the point is bashar al assad brought this on by turning the tanks loose on population centers. he asked for it. this started out as a fairly benign movement, almost, you know, the incipient democracy, and he opened up with the artillery. anybody could have told him that. and what's happened, the result of this is that the christians and the alawites have had to rally around him, which is about 30% of the population, give or take, and that's a syrian number. they don't like bashar al assad, he's not very competent, doesn't know what he's doing. the generals are the most important. but you only have 30% of the population. but you look at -- i mean, anything could turn tomorrow. the kurdish area over here could break away. they're talking about it now. they're in discussions with the iraqi kurds. >> dara is really where the first demonstrations were. >> yeah. it's a heavily sunni muslim area, but it's also tribal. but it didn't start off as an islamic movement. it's the alawites forced into becoming one, and i don't think we should forget that. >> this state he wanted to create, as you say, draw those people in the middle ground -- >> me or the flood. >> me or the flood. talking to people earlier this year, they were just saying we want to hear from the opposition, what is their view for the future of syria, because we're afraid there might be an islamist element in there. we want to know that sort of us, the christians, will be respected and taken care of, the minorities will be respected. and they didn't hear that. it's those very people now with the rise of groups sort of sounding and acting like they've learned from al qaeda's playbook with their terrorist acts, that are taking those people who were sitting on the fence in the middle, who might, who might have gone to the opposition firmly into the assad camp. and that's what he wanted to create. that's the strongest position for him, divide and conquer, an he needs as strong a block on his side as possible. >> we've seen suicide attacks here in damascus, in the capital. the regime is saying this is al qaeda. the opposition says this is actually the regime setting off these bombs to make people believe it's al qaeda. what do you think is the truth? >> well, i think the truth is probably -- exists in a gray area that is somewhere in between. the issue is that with the action that the assad regime is taking, the regime's claim that it is, in fact, fighting, foreign-backed islamist groups might end up being a forgone conclusion because that is beginning to emerge. remember the ties between syria and iraq. very tribal. when the iraq war was taking place, there were a fair number of fighters that went from syria to iraq. they were trained on how to build roadside bombs -- >> the assad regime allowed fighters in. >> exactly. they opened the border. they know how to blow up an american tank using things you'd find in your kitchen. this is what's interesting. when they went back, a number of them were, in fact, detained by the regime but then released in the summer and early fall with the regime's knowledge that they would then eventually carry out these types of attacks against the government itself, yes, but allow the assad government to say, look, we are fighting these foreign-backed groups. >> what's the role that iran is playing in syria, and how important is syria to iran? >> iran right now, i've got some very good friends in tripoli, lebanon, dumping money into tripoli to fight the muslim brotherhood groups. they're defending hezbollah. they want to hold onto this regime in damascus at any cost simply because they do not want to lose lebanon, which might happen if there was some sort of real revolution in syria that succeeded. and it's interesting because we're seeing these surrogate wars. the iranians are putting money into lebanon, and you've got the qataris and saudis putting money into lebanon, as well, supporting the groups, and explosions on monday were a result of this, where these surrogates are fighting each other in lebanon. what we're seeing is the syrian mess move outside the borders of syria. >> i want to talk more about the regional instability that could happen and what we're already seeing and what may spill over into lebanon and elsewhere. also want to get everybody's take on that. what makes a sleep number store different? you walk into a conventional mattress store, it's really not about you. they say, "well, if you wanted a firm bed you can lie on one of those. if you want a soft bed you can lie on one of those." we provide the exact individualization that your body needs. welcome to the sleep number memorial day sale. where you can celebrate our 25-year commitment to a single mission: better sleep for both of you. this is your body there. you can see a little more pressure in