ne who's next? i'll introduce you to a man famous for predicting political change. and in oslo court, we'll analyze what breivik said. and can europe survive? should the u.s. government slash its budgets the way european governments are? i was in london earlier this week and sat down with a star-studded panel to sort things out. first, here's my take. watching the apec summit in hawaii last week, i had a feeling we were entering a new phase of global geopolitics. for decades now, those summits have been occasions for asean countries to worry and wonder about the u.s. commitment to asia. how strong is it, whom does washington back, will we stay engaged. the obama administration has made clear that the united states is in asia for good and might increase its presence in the region. the real concerns are no longer about washington but rather about beijing. countries in asia and around the world are wondering and worrying about china. watching china's somewhat aggressive diplomacy last year, many asian countries are still worried. and as they watch china's military modernization, they worry more. it's not just in asia, of course. look at africa where china's investments and activity are becoming part of those countries' domestic politics. the recent elections in zambia, for example, were won by a attend who promised to take on the chinese. the chinese, by some accounts, have virtual control over that country's economy. zambia is a huge copper exporter, and chinese state-owned companies are deeply involved in that business. it is a sign of china's power that the candidate who is now president has had to make nice with the chinese and recently threw a lunch for chinese investors. this might explain it, copper special report produced 2/3 of the zambian government's revenues. the united states is also witnessing new levels of anxiety about chinese business practices. the republican front-runner, mitt romney, made a stunningly tough statement about china recently. listen. >> china is almost every dimension cheating. we've got to to see realize that. they're manipulating their currency and holding down the price of chinese goods and making sure their products are artificially low priced. it's predator price, killing jobs in america. >> this is stunning because it comes from a republican. breaks with had40 years of republican foreign policy. the republican strategy has been to engage china and not condemn it. that mitt romney is changing tells us that popular moods toward china in the united states are very hostile. people keep saying that america needs a new china strategy. i think if you watch what's goingond and see how many countries are worry being beijing, the truth is that china needs a new china strategy. beijing needs to recognize that it has become a world power, that its every move is deeply analyzed, and that it is expect expected to play by the rules. indeed, it is expected to help maintain the rules. tell? that is one of the big questions this century. for more, read my column in this week's "time" or at time.com. let's get started. joining me now, the defense minister and former prime minister of israel, ehud barak. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> i have to ask you the question on everyone's mind -- is israel going to attack iran? >> i don't think that that is subject for public discussion, but i can tell you that the iaea report has a sobering impact on many in the world, leaders as well as the publics. and people understand it, the time comes, told him what he found, unlike baredai. and it became an issue, i think you do duly so it become an issue with urgency. people understanding to which nuclear weapons, no other possible explanation for what they had been actually doing, and that should be stopped. and the -- under nuclear iran, the whole region will turn nuclear -- turkey, egypt will have to turn nuclear to -- the nuclear materiels. and they will use the nuclear umbrella to intimidate neighbors around the gulf to sponsor terror. try to see what happens if at a certain moment you wake up to a bahrain overwhelmed by iran -- who will come to rescue? who would have come to rescue kuwait had it wwhen it was take saddam years ago? if he said he had three our four nuclear devices. >> a report says that you and prime minister netanyahu were trying to persuade your cabinet and that you -- you were able to-peto to persuade the mind of lieberman. is that news report accurate? >> no, i don't care to respond on the euro. that's -- those discussions with the cabinet should remain kind of closed to the public. there is a freedom of press in israel, and people speculate a lot. but i don't think that israel is the only -- the only or main issue on the table. it's iran, it's behavior, -- it, its intention. the prospect of a kind of nuclear iran and what should and could be done about it in time. it's true that it won't take three years or a quarter -- nothing can do anything practically about it because iran is gradually, deliberately entering the -- what i call the zone of immunity by widening the redundancy of the plain, making it spread over many more sides -- sglo >> do you think in three quarters, a year, they will reach a point of no return? >> not in the sense of having a nuclear device. people ask when they will have -- when they will break -- >> are you saying that at that point it becomes impossible to block it because there are so many redundancies in the program? >> yeah. i cannot tell you for sure nor predict, two quarters, three quarters, but it's not two or three years. >> shorter than that? >> yeah. >> do you have the technical capacity to strike iran and destroy your significant program -- i ask you because you publicly said in the event of an israeli strike there would be minimal losses to israel. so obviously you're thinking about this. you believe that israel has the capacity to take out the iranian nuclear program? >> allow me to tell you frankly, it's not a subject to be discussed in front of the equipment here. >> but you said -- >> no. no, i said some being what might happen if a regional war erupts. what can happen or could happen under the tourest scenarios in the israeli back yard among israeli populations. let me tell you, we recommend to all players to act sincerely, intensively to block the iranians, prevent them from turning nuclear. and we kept recommending to all to leave no option, ton remove any option from the table. we take it will ourselves, we expect it from others the same way. >> do you think that president obama has been serious in his policy to try to prevent iran from acquiring nuclear weapons? he has toughened the sanctions, got the u.n. to agree to a further round. do you view his administration's diplomacy on this front as something you support? >> first of all, i do not know. there is no details on what is on the american administration's mind in this regard. but i can see what they are doing. and i think that they are acting intensively right now. and i would not underestimate the sincerity of this administration and president. >> you know there are people in the united states who criticize president obama for not supporting israel strongly enough. do you believe that president obama is a very strong supporter of israel? >> he's extremely strong supporter of israel in terms of security. i don't traditionally present well supporting israel in keeping its military agent. taking care of its security needs. but this administration is action selling in this. and it could not have happened without the immediate part of the president. i don't see this anyone can raise any question mark about the devotion this president to the security of israel. it doesn't mean that we cannot have difference of opinion, this or that point about this or that, other aspect of what happens around us, mideast of the peace process. i would love to see the american president agree to everything with our government. but i think that's too ideali idealistic. >> tell me about this mysterious explosion in iran that killed a very senior iranian general. every news report that talks about it says this was an operation launched or assisted by the musaad. >> it means that there is a freedom in place in most part of the world. and there's an eagerness to compete with each other about good headlines that will probably attract viewers or readers. >> you have no comment on it? >> no. i don't know anything that i can contribute to this conversation about it. >> let's talk about syria. the syrian regime appears to be in greater trouble than it has been for months. the money seems to be running out. the level of the insurgency and protests seem to be rising, and they are losing support. the king of jordan publicly asked president assad to step down. where do you think things stand? >> i think that he's on a slippery slope. he cannot climb back. he's too deep into it. the fact that the arab league abandoned him, not extremely strong a monarch found it necessary to say loud and clear it's unacceptable. i think that what happened with gadhafi and the less fresh memory of what happened to saddam hussein is on his head all the time. and it somehow makes him more brutal because he understands that to a certain point there is no way -- it's literally a struggle for life or death. i don't believe that he will -- iran, syria, in a year from now, half a year time, it's totally independent from the previous issue we discussed. but things are developing quickly all around us in the middle east. >> ehud barak, always a pleasure. >> thank you. >> and we will be back. we won't be surprised russia's going to continue to deteriorate and get worse. we might be surprised that over the next couple of years it is pretty likely that saudi arabia will liberalize. we're centurylink ... we're committed to improving lives and linking americans to what matters most with honest, personal service... 5-year price-lock guarantees... consistently fast speeds ... and more ways to customize your technology. ♪ even if you think you can live with your old mattress... ask me how i've never slept better... why not talk to one of the 6 million people who've switched to the most highly recommended bed in america. it's not a sealy, a simmons, or a serta... ask me about my tempur-pedic. ask me how i can finally sleep all night. ask me how great my back feels every morning. did you know there's a tempur-pedic for every body? 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>> if you're running a daycaretatorship, you don't have to -- dictatorship, you don't have to worry about the property rights of a citizen. only the people who keep you in power, a very small group matter. you can invoke eminent domain when you feel like it. in a democracy you'd be out of a job if you do that. >> in a dictatorship you go the straightest path and in democracy you worry about this town here, this village, settlement. >> press sighly. the first time i think with to. >> b.j.: th-- beijing they were building the highway and literally drove through a farmer's back yard. that was the highway. the fact that the farm was there didn't matter to anybody other than presumably himself. >> you predicted last year that ahmadinejad, the president of iran's power, would start waning. and on first appearances that's happening. he's been challenged by the supreme leader in iran, challenged by the revolutionary guard? why did you make that prediction? >> my modeling indicated that he was trying to carve out an independent base of power. that's, of course, a threat to the people on top. and that meant that inevitably he would be clashing with khomeini, with the revolutionary guard. they've got a lot more cloud than he has. that was likely to be a thorn in his side more than he in theirs. >> he'll lose that power struggle, you think? >> he'll lose that power struggle. but so will khomeini, he's already on the way down, in the next couple of years. it seems to me, and indeed i predicted in february of 2009 that by the beginning of 2011, jafari would be the real power in iran and khomeini would be increasingly more show and less real authority. and that's going to continue. >> so what you see happening in iran is effectively a decline of power based on religious authority of the clergy and rise of power based on military authority. >> that's right. and that makes me mildly optimistic that over the next several years iran is going to become a much more pragmatic government. >> and presumably even in nuclear negotiations, these guys are more likely to be rational, deterrable, practical? >> absolutely. again, my view on the nuclear side is that what is in the interests of the iranian leadership and what they perceive to be in their interests is to develop weapons-grade fuel but not to make a weapon. that is, to demonstrate that they would know how, that they have the technology. that gives them all the political kudos in the region that they're looking for without the political and military risks associated with actually assembling a bomb. and jafari surely understands that. i think khomeini understands it, as well. maybe he's been compelled to understand it. >> what about libya? why didn't moammar gadhafi last so long? 42 years. >> i'm going to turn that question on its head. why did he fail to last longer? he obviously had a very good run. he made from the dictator's handbook perspective, terrible mistakes in the last few years. he was interested in currying favor with the west. and in doing that, he started to diminish the amount that he was torturing people, oppressing people, sending the message that the risk of rebelling against this guy, not so high. so he had the first, say, 39, 40 years of from his perspective great success because he was not mr. nice guy. the last few years, he put himself at great risk by maybe drinking his own whiskey and thought people loved him. but he -- he loosened up too much. >> which would suggest that the syrian regime will endure because they seem to be oppressing, brutalizing -- in other words, you're saying it's going to tow the old line. for a bad regime, the biggest mistake is to start opening up a sflibl. >> that's true, but i'm optimistic that the syrian regime will fall -- >> why? >> and that there will be a reasonable amount of liberalization, not democracy. again, they'll run out of money. so the question is how much will the iranians give them if the reputed $5 billion is the right number. that's probably enough for the very large assad family to go into exile and live out their lives in luxury. it's probably not enough to buy sustained loyaltiy from the military. and that loyalty is crumbling. >> what if you were predicting look -- looking forward now, what are the things that are going to surprise us? >> a very good question. we won't be surprised russia's going to continue to deteriorate and get worse. we might be surprised that over the next couple of years it is pretty likely that saudi arabia will liberalize a bit more, moving toward a constitutional monarchy, but slowly. morocco is highly likely to liberalize. maybe not surprising when raul castro passes from the scene, it is very likely that cuba will move pretty rapidly to a fairly liberal democracy. we just have to hope that he passes from the scene soon enough so that the offshore elk ploergz for oil and natural gas doesn't come on board. then they'll be able to entrench dictatorship. >> bruce, thank you very much. >> thank you very much. we'll be back with a story from oslo. the norwegian mass murderer, anders breivik, went on trial. what was he thinking when he set out to murder dozens of young men and women? 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how could the culture of northern europe known for social welfare states and generous foreign aid budgets create a killing machine like breivik? an important survey sheds light. the think tank demok conducted the first-ever quantitative investigation of europe on line. this is especially important because the internet following of these parties dwarfs its formal membership. remember, the likes of breivik are created and radicalized on line. so demos reached out it more than 400,000 facebook followers or 14 far-right groups across europe. more than a quarter of the respondents said that violence is acceptable if it leads to the right ends. if you thought the far right's members are aging and disconnected, think again. 1/3 of those surveyed were under 21. 2/3 were under 30. compare that with the average age of facebook users, only half are under 30. so it turns out that supporters of europe's far right groups are increasingly young and connected. they're also mostly male, deeply cynical about the e.u. and deeply worried about immigration and the perceived spread of islamic influence in europe. they are extreme versions of a growing reality in europe. the e.u. does seem dysfunctional, jobs are scarce, and at least three major european leaders, germany's angela merkel, france's nic loss sarkozy, and britain's david cameron, have recently admitted that europe's experiment with multi- catculturalism has faile. whoever's fault it is -- society's for not offering opportunities to integrate, the inability to cling to new practices, in europe it's been complicated and has produced a backlash. and now with youth unemployment skyrocketing in some countries, could rage against immigrants be the escape valve? maybe, though please note norway has not really had an eco