thank you. >> thank you. and "cnn this morning" continues right now. our first look at the results from cnn's new 2024 presidential poll. >> donald trump has a narrow lead among registered voters. >> the president has to do things that show people he can engage, he can handle the combat and debate. >> do you think the bidens policies helped you or hurt you? >> the bestning in the poll for joe biden is the date on it. ♪ ♪ >> 2024 top of mind this morning after yesterday's elections. big wins for democrats and for abortion rights. ohio voters decided to make abortion a right under the state constitution. in virginia, cnn projects democrats will gain full control of the state legislature and a major setback for republican governor glenn youngkin in virginia who had been pushing to restrict abortions after 15 weeks. and in the deep red state of kentucky, democrat andy beshear won re-election. donald trump won kentucky by 26 points in 2020. last night's results have left us with some crucial questions. first, what do these victories mean for democrats in '24? number two, will republicans change their messaging about abortion? number three, how will election results play into the gop presidential debate that is tonight? finally, will these wins boost president biden as he runs for re-election? so, phil, to you at the wall. what do the numbers say? >> i think what is most interesting, we can't predict a year from now. what you can do is look at a clear trend line transpiring since the supreme court overturned roe v. wade. what do i mean? take a look at the 2020 map. joe biden winning the election by 7 million votes. what happened after dobbs is instructive about what happened last night and what democrats think could happen despite biden's negative poll numbers over the last several weeks. last night the state of ohio, clearly a red state, won by trump, voting for abortion rights. why does that matter? it follows a trend since last summer where states like michigan, states like kentucky, where states like montana, kansas, others, red states, for the most part, have all voted in favor of abortion rights. that a critical issue democrats want to talk about in 2024 that the biden wants to talk about is an issue that democrats continue to win on. that's ballot initiatives. what about states themselves? what about races? if you want to go back to the same time period and you want to talk about a state like new york. well, new york '19 special election democrat overperformed pat ryan a member of congress. alaska a republican state, a republican seat, a democrat is now a member of congress. what about last night? well, let's flip up the 2023, the governors race, the governors race andy beshear winning a deep red state by 6,000 votes. he was a popular governor in a state who had an advantage, a lot of money as well. this is a sizable win much larger than his win in 2019. health care, abortion were critical issues there. then you talk about the state of virginia. why is the state of virginia mattering? in 2020 this was a state that president biden won by ten points. largest march of victory for a democrat since 1944. yet, a clear later, glenn youngkin, republican governor, entered this campaign season trying to get the trifecta. all three bodies, the governorship, statehouse, state senate as well, instead he doesn't have the state senate or the statehouse underscoring the fact on abortion, a issue he tried to take head on, he lost and republicans are looking at democrats who rolled off a stink of victory after victory after victory on issues in special elections and despite the poll numbers are what democrats are pointing to this morning. >> with us to talk about this, cnn political commentator former trump white house communications director alyssa farah griffin, former senior advisor to barack obama, david axlerod, and commentator van jones. david, good night for democrats. i am interested in your tweet got a whole lot of attention on sunday. you said the stakes of miscalculation are too dramatic to ignore for biden. did last night change this? >> i think you have two things going on at once. i think that the tide in the country is a good tide for democrats. that has been true almost since trump got elected and i think it was kind of turbocharged by the dobbs decision and the reaction to it. this year, even before last night, in 38 out of 40 elections around the country, democratic turnout was much, much higher than traditional. i think this has a lot to do with it. trump does, too. one of the things about last night, and i'll get to the issue of biden -- >> are you going to answer the question about biden? >> keep the clock running. no. but in kentucky, i will talked to our friend scott jennings this morning who was on the ground in kentucky. he noted the fact that michael adams, the secretary of state there, who was a guy who resisted the election denial, led the republican -- he got 60% of the vote. daniel cameron, who clung to trump, got 47, 48%. so it's not just about abortion. the tide is good. the question is -- you see it shot through the poll and the question is whether that tide can carry biden forward despite what is, obviously, where doubts that are rooted primarily in age. that's the question that has to be answered. i think this is set up for a democrat to win, and, you know, the question is does -- is there a drag on him, not on the democrats in general, but on him. >> and that was kind of my takeaway. bidens' numbers are bad. he is yet to be a drag on democrats' down ballot. trump seems to overperform in the pull but a massive drag to down ballot. it's the bizarre dichotomy. we have to consider the polling to be a snapshot in time. i think the age factor is huge. the number glaring from cnn's poll was the stamina question even though joe biden and donald trump are three years apart, the way they are perceived is so different. a good night for democrats. abortion is clearly the most animating issue out there. but still an uphill battle for biden. >> and to that point, and i asked the campaign manager about this this morning, 80 years old, 77 years old, and the way people review them. it's not a party thing. just generally. so dramatically different. if you watch a trump rally isn't not like everything he says makes sense. is that something they can attack? is that something the administration should be focused on, biden's team should be focused on? >> they are going to try to make him younger. probably won't work. they will have to talk about it differently. he comes from a long lived family. you know, he is fit. he is active. they have to talk about it differently. but the reality is this. people are unhappy. they are just unhappy. we are not in a left wing or right-wing period. we are in a volatile period and people are looking for a port in the storm. biden was that port in the storm after four years of crazy from donald trump. but the storm has gotten worse. the crazier has gotten crazier. and so now you are asking people to vote for the status quo. that's what we will be asking people to do in a year. the only way you could that, if you feel the status quo can hold you, help you, support you, get you through. when someone looks weak, fragile, that becomes a drag. but because of what you saw last night, there is a wave out there of democratic enthusiasm that has nothing to do with joe biden. it has to do with democracy, abortion, organized labor coming back and that force could carry joe biden across. >> i said to you guys the other day when you asked about this that he needs to throw this race and they need to throw this race into a very, very tough comparative frame right away. i mean, he can't allow to be a referendum on him or people's feelings about the status quo. it needs to be a choice. and donald trump and this republican party is the choice on the other side, and i think that's what gives biden, you know, his best chance in this election. >> and i think that the biden campaign thought that other republican candidates would litigate the case against trump and they haven't. nikki haley has kind of gone there, chris christie's kind of got there. he needs to broaden it beyond the democracy argument. that worked for democracies in 2022. election denialism was rejected. the case of abortion, nobody bears more responsibility for dobbs than donald trump yet voters i don't know they perceive him like a mike johnson or mike pence with regard to abortion. that's biden's job to define that. >> he is making it harder, trump, because having the sort of card of having appointed those justices, he feels free to criticize the some of the more draconian abortion measures. he has done that against ron desantis and he has positioned himself somehow as a moderate. you're right. he can't have it both ways, you know? and they have to prosecute that case. but there are a series of issues on the economy and other things in which biden is well positioned to contrast with trump and the republicans, and i just think they need to get going on that. >> i think it's interesting that the administration, at least to this point, and maybe they will, has not honed in on some of the reporting in the last week from "the new york times" first and "washington post" what trump is planning to do if he wins again in terms of the lawyers he is going to put around him, real political retribution at the justice department, really those fundamental things, what happened to the administrative state. it doesn't sound sexy, but they are not focusing on those things and they could. >> and they will. this stuff is terrifying. you know, darth vader would be like, you guys are a little bit authoritarian here. this is not so great. they are going to make that a big part. i agree but. it can be democracy only. but we underestimated the midterms the power of that argument, that we might lose our democracy. you've got to talk more about, you know, bread and butter, dinner table issues. democracy brought democrats out, abortion brought democrats out. i think what's going on we are in a season of discontent, the democratic party. there is no great savior to come along. we have biden and biden's numbers are weak and so we are in a season of discontent. the underlying fundamentals of concern that biden can run on are extreme when it comes to trump. >> on the democracy point, this is what rick santorum said last night about democracy and elections. >> you put very sexy things like abortion and marijuana on the ballot and a lot of young people come out and vote. it was a secret sauce for disaster in ohio. i don't know what they were thinking. but that's why i'm -- i think thank goodness most states don't allow you to put everything on the ballot because pure democracies are not the way to run a country. >> i don't remember rick being that outspoken when they were putting right-wing initiatives on the ballot. you know, i think he doesn't like the result that he got there. >> but i also think -- we will have to see the breakdown of the numbers in ohio on abortion. i guarantee some republicans voted for it. the sheer margin of it. >> some counties voted in favor of this by fairly sizable margins was something like 75, 80%. >> and is why when you -- >> in kansas -- >> yes, when you see the general election polling, nikki haley outperforms donald trump head-to-head with joe biden, talking about the issue of abortion with more nuance and grace. >> rick santorum calls himself a populist, yet he doesn't want to hear from the people. >> you just said pure democracies are not a way to run a country, he said. that's the line i was focused on. >> he means we are a democratic republican. a pure democracy 51% of the people could vote to take the money from all the other 49%. that's why we have protections for minorities, stuff like that. that would be called mob rule. i think it's a little bit of sour grapes on his part ton this issue because on other stuff he loves the popular way. >> we are going to ignore that he referred to marijuana and abortion as very sexy. we are going to try to keep a level head -- i respect all of you deeply for your ability to do that. thanks, guys. moments ago one of the pandas from the national zoo is on their way back to china. it wills the first time in more than 50 years that zoo will be panda-less. and debate night for republicans. five presidential hopefuls, not trump, will be on the stage in miami. can any of them seize a chance to gain ground on the overwhelming frontrunner? that's ahehead. five candida tonight in miami. the third presidential debate. the frontrunner, donald trump, will not be there again. he is going to hold a rally at the same time. so less than a year from the presidential election, the question, what is the state of the 2024 presidential republican primary race? we have senior data reporter harry enten who is going to tell us exactly that. state of the race? >> what is that state of the race, phil? we had two debates so far. we are going into a third. what difference have these debates actually made? well, donald trump in june our cnn poll predebates at 47%. he is now at 61%. and there is all this talk, my goodness, nikki haley has come in, done so well, she is gaining ground. what ground has she zband? from 5% to 10%. she is still 51 points behind donald trump leading and yet in some of those early states may be closer. ain't that much closer. really the noticeable drop isn't from donald trump, it's ron desantis' angle who has dropped by nine percentage points. all these debates, everything we have done hasn't made a lick of difference in the fact that donald trump is the clear frontrunner for the republican nomination. this gives you an understanding of how strong donald trump is from historical perspective. 50% plus at this point. all before trump won the nomination. dole, bush, hillary clinton, donald trump. you look at the poll numbers, they have become stronger and he is in line with prior folks who went on to win their party's nominations. >> how does he compare now with how he matched up in the polling around time with biden before 2020? >> yeah, so, look, one of the big questions out of last night, polling like this showing donald trump ahead of joe biden 49% to 45% and on the polls telling us one thing, the actual election results telling us something else, what's something we have to untangle in the days and weeks and months to go. this to me is not an outlier. it's very much in line with what we have seen so far. these are nationals polls where trump led biden. this is the 14th poll where trump led biden. give you an idea how different that is from what we saw in the 2020 cycle, there was zero, zero, zero polls where trump led biden nationally. now wegovy 14. something is clearly different. how it's different, i again, i am not sure. but the numbers are clearly telling us these are two very unpopular frontrunners for their party's nomination. >> when you say we have to untangle this going forward, can we? a couple more specials over the course. next year. this is a question. we are going to have a thousand polls. >> i think the question is there are a lot of people in the middle who just can't possibly believe these two parties are going to nominate somebody as unpopular as joe biden and donald trump. what happens when they realize these are the choices we are going to get. we have a year to go. polls are not predictive but give you an idea of the state of the race in folks' minds now. peep are not happy and may be willing to throw out the baby with the bathwater despite they are voting for democrats, abortion, marijuana rights last night. >> thank you. a republican who voted to impeach donald trump is launching a senate campaign. pierre meyer with his message to michigan voters this morning no and a window for gazzans to escape. the latest from is ahead e a republican who voted to impeach donald trump announce ago run for senate in a key battleground state. >> we need leaders willing to stand up for what they believe in. no matter the risk. i'm peter meijer. i am a proud dad, iraq war veteran, fourth generation michigander. you know i'm not afraid to risk my job. >> talking about the vote. he was one of just ten house republicans who voted to impeach trump after january 6th and he paid a political price. lost narrowly to a trump-endorsed challenger in the 2022 midterms. >> a guy who spells his name meijer but they pronounce it meyer. what the hell kind of a spelling is that? >> he spelled it right. that was trump in mishs last year. he will have to win back some of those booing voters. his announcement this week sent off backlash from others in the republican party. the senate republicans campaign arm said, quote, peter meijer isn't viable in a primary election. if he were to be nominated, the base would not be enthused in the general. peter meijer joins us now. glad you are with us. why can you win? why can you turn the boos around? >> i mean, i love that statement that they put out. oh, he can't win. by the way, if he can, you know, there is a little bit of an internal contradiction within two sentences there. the reality is that i am running for the folks who are sick and tired for the way things are, who are frustrated at a political system that is still trying to throw options out there even though they keep rejecting them, and in the state of michigan in the past almost 50 years we have had 16 senate races, a republican has won one once. massachusetts and delaware have had republicans more recently their senate delegations than michigan. frankly, you think it's time we do something different. hard to get more different than i am these days. >> it's been since '94 in the state of michigan that a republican won a senate seat. i am struck by the fact that one of those candidates is former michigan congressman mike rogers. served seven terms in the house, let the house intelligence committee. you seem aligned on a lot. why should people vote for you and not him? where do you differ? >> i would say the biggest difference is where we think the party needs to go. mike is a decent, honorable man. he is certainly has served this country in uniform, in the house. at the same time i think we need to be moving forward and offering more of a vision to make sure by 2050 we are in the second great american century and that sense of a vision i don't see in the field right now. i think it's important and positive to have a diverse set of views expressed. at the end of the day, i see a lot of folks trying to navigate a current 6 as opposed to outlining where we need to go, how we get there and connecting that with the realistic approach so we're being honest with voters because at the end of the day honesty and truth are what matters. we have a tremendous amount of phoniness in the system. biden's approval rating right now, the inevitable or seems like the inevitable outcome on the presidential process. >> you said honesty and truth matters. do you think former president trump is honest and truthful a lot? >> no. i think our political system is rife with folks -- >> no, but. >> trump is more sincere and authentic with projecting. does he get the facts right all the time, shape things in his view? doesn't matter -- >> doesn't that matter. >> lie to my face on -- >> don't the facts matter -- >> facts absolutely matter. donald trump never lied to me. the biden administration lied to my face in classified briefings on afghanistan, lied to my face about with whether or not migrants were brought into my district. i found them to be incredibly deceptive. i am more than happy to criticize the former president. we live in fields of shades of gray. when we have to go to the polls, nobody wants to be in a box where they have to focus on, hey, if you like this guy you can't say a thing and if y