them, the answer is maybe yes, and maybe no. according to a new reuters ipsos poll taken after the verdict. 26% of registered independent voters said they are less likely to vote for donald trump. will they still feel that way in november? there are five months left before election day, which is, i don't know, like five life times in modern day presidential politics, maybe more. anything can still happen. just remember that all of donald trump has probably survived. john mccain isn't a war hero, the muslim ban, the "access hollywood" tape, et cetera, et cetera, maybe this time will be different. in the words of our dear friend charlie sykes. there's something about a felony conviction that clarifies the mind or better put by an old adage, coopted from the grandmother of a former republican congressional lawyer writing for "politico," quote, there's a running day and a catching day, and thursday donald trump got caught. joining us now, nbc news correspondent, dasha burns. we're going to get to the analysis of all of this in a moment, but on thursday, donald trump did get caught. he faced consequences. real consequences. criminal consequences of the like that he has never faced in his lifetime. he had the civil fraud judgments. those were huge. this is the sort of thing that can put him in prison. what was the reaction over the weekend? what's the reaction today? >> they are leaning into this. it's interesting to look at the polls. i wish they were more satisfying but they are just a snapshot in time. as you said, the election is not tomorrow. right? so what can we really glean from this. what i see on the part of the former president's team is a slew of fundraising e-mails, truth social posts, where they are painting him as a political prisoner or they are leaning into this, saying -- trump saying in an e-mail today, they want to put me in prison for 187 yards, which of course is not true. from their actions, it tells me they think they can spin this into a good thing. >> donald trump said something over the weekend that i found to be baffling, either he has dementia or he's straight up lying. he said, let me let you listen. here is what you said and claimed over the weekend. >> crooked hillary clinton, oh, she's crooked, folks, she's crooked at a $3 bill. okay. here's one, just came out. lock her up is right. >>. [ chanting lock her up ] >> for what she's done, they should lock her up. it's disgraceful. >> so crooked hillary, wait, you should lock her up, i'll tell you. >> lock up the bidens. lock up hillary. lock them up. >> the people say lock her up, lock her up. then we won, and i said pretty openly, come on, just relax. >> let me do some clean up on that. that last clip, that's fox and friend over the weekend. donald trump said he never said that he asked -- or said that hillary clinton should be lock her up. he never led those chants. obviously that is not the case as you saw from just the small portion of lock her up chance that we compiled for this show. is it dementia or just straight line? >> in those interviews, i watched the entire 90 minutes. it's very stream of consciousness. it's hard to tell if he's lying or saying the thing he wishes. >> it's one of the more egregious things, come on. >> we have the tapes, the receipts. in fact, i was at a rally in wildwood, new jersey of his that was a very vintage rally, build the wall chants and lock her up chants there. and he was sitting in the glory of all of that. >> i wonder why, revise that, what's the point of the revisionist history, regarding lock her up chants. >> it's hard to get inside of his head. right now, he is the one that's under threat of prison time, and, again, it's something that his campaign is leading into, calling him a political prisoner. >> is he not going to do political persecutions if he's elected back into the white house. >> people have accused him of that. he has said it's revenge, and when i say revenge, it means we're going to get revenge with success. there's an attempt to change the tone that was very sort of vengeful at the outset. >> dasha burns, thank you very much for starting us off. former rnc chairman and host of the weekend, michael steele, and ”the new york times” opinion columnist, david french. we have had a week to digest, and so have the american voters, they have come back with unsurprising results. the movement was always in the margins, indemnities, michael steele, how do you see this playing out? >> i don't know yet. it's may, june, people about to go on summer vacations, and hopefully clean some of this out of their heads and then come back and refocus on it. the problem i have with doing snapshot polling is that it distorts exactly where things are because we don't know precisely where they are with voters. particularly after an event like this. voters will digest and process this. it is important that narratives be clear and focused that tell the story of what this moment means. and then voters will check back in after labor day, and they'll begin to process it in terms of the question you asked at the very beginning, katy, which is shall i vote for a convicted fellowon -- felon for office. who has been convicted on 34 counts in this case, and judged a sexual predator in the e. jean carroll case and found liable for tax evasion and fraud and owes a half a billion dollars in fines and fees. so there's a lot for voters to process with these cases coming as they have. and i think the important thing right now is the narrative, and that clip that you showed with trump, he gets it, he understands, which is, you know, the analysis of that is, oh, yeah, i sat out there, lock up hillary clinton, and now my behind is about to be locked up. i have never said that. i would never say that about somebody else in political office and political life, and he knows it's going to come back. he thinks we haven't forgotten. it's important to play the clip. >> i was there for a hundred of those rallies, he said it every single one. david, i'm going to leave that aside for now. i'm curious about, we're talking about the independent voters, you talk about a sub sect of them, even, the lower information voters. how does this -- does this sink in at some point? i'm thinking of charlie sykes and his words that a felony conviction clarifies the mind. do you think it does when it comes to people who are deciding who to vote for? i don't know, in late september or late october, early november. >> i think it does but not necessarily for a decisive number of people. that's the really critical issue here not whether it will have an impact. it will be some, but to believe that the dam will break against trump, and he'll be swept away, that's 2016 thinking, new scandal after new scandal. finally now, it's done for him. we realize, no, he has this rock solid base of support. what we have seen is that support can erode, there can be chipping away, an erosion, and some of these polls that show this tiny bit of erosion, they don't show this at all. we have to wait and see over time. one of the realities of this race is really interesting, and i'm not sure how this will end up counting in november, is that biden leads pretty well amongst people who have a history of voting recently. 2020, for example, 2016, and trump leads by even more amongst people who have that lower propensity to vote. these are the lower information voters. a lot of these people, this might surprise some of your viewers, a lot of people had no clue that trump was on trial a this moment. we're talking low information, and so, one of the issues is who gets to go to the earlier comment, who gets there first with the most on the messaging. who actually sort of fills in that gap? >> how do you see the biden team doing with messaging. we saw him come out on friday, the president, and before he addressed the compromise that he was putting forward for israel and hamas, he came out firmly and said this is the way the american justice system works, he had a fair trial. and the conviction happened, that it was fair. this is normal, under our american justice system. you're put on trial, and the evidence is convincing, you're found guilty. is the biden team doing a good job of this so far at least? >> ideally, they shouldn't have to raise it or mention it at all, the fact that this is front page on every newspaper in america, this is front page when you open a news web site should be sufficient to inform the american public about what happened. if there's one thing that we know now, it's actually not. sometimes you can't simply rely on the media to inform the public. a large part of the public is tuned out from political media almost entirely. so that means you have to sort of by blunt force breakthrough to people. and this is uncharted territory. when have we had a situation where a president is running against a former president who's just convicted of felonies and has to make the case to the american people don't elect a felon. this is not normal in any way, shape or form, so we're all kind of at sea, just speculating as to what is the best course. >> it's interesting, people who read newspapers, watch tv news, broadcast news, who consume digital news online from a news web site. they like biden more than they like donald trump, the margins that he has, those information voters, they like president biden. they're not convinced by donald trump. it's the social media people, the people who get their news from alternative venues, how do you cut into that, michael steele? >> i guess we're all aged out of the social media world. it's a hard question to ask us. how do you get online and breakthrough when the currency online, the currency in social media are small, small clips and memes. >> it's one of the reasons why you saw donald trump just get on tiktok last week, after railing against tiktok, wanting to shut it down and riling republicans up about tiktok and china, and all of that. guess what donald trump is doing, y'all, he's doing tiktok, and the reason he's doing tiktok is he knows that that's the platform where this generation of voters that he needs, donald trump like joe biden needs to create a coalition. there aren't enough maga out there. there aren't enough to cobble together wins in wisconsin and pennsylvania, et cetera. he needs these other voters, even though they're not low information voters, more sophisticated voters, to also look at him in a favorable light. what helps that is the billionaire class. when the billionaires decide, oh, the guy that, you know, is suddenly back in favor, we're now throwing our money behind him, et cetera. that is another level of public leaders that people see gravitating to trump to david's earlier point, sort of weakens the idea of, oh, well, it can't be that bad to elect a felon as president because these guys like him, the billionaires like him. so, you know, it's a combination of those forces, katy, that make this to david's point, ver very difficult. >> let's bring that out. is it that bad, david? would you argue it is that bad to elect a convicted felon, especially one convicted for influencing the 2016 election and a guy currently indicted for trying to overturn the 2020 election. you see billionaires going and supporting him, transactional. is it that bad? is the democracy at risk? >> it's that bad. let's pull back and look at this case by itself. so even if you have questions about the legality of the solid legal reason tying the book keeping fraud to another crime, which i have questions about how this is going to be handled on appeal, but the underlying facts of the case here should be totally disqualifying for any presidential candidate ever, and this is paying hush money to conceal a romantic encounter with a porn star right after your third wife has given birth to your youngest child, like this should end it all for him on those facts alone, much less the fraud, et cetera. but you don't even have to stop there, katy, we go to the sexual assault finding from a jury, or a sexual abuse finding from a jury in manhattan, we go to he defamed the victim of his own sexual abuse. he has been found liable for fraud. it comes and goes and goes and goes. we have all of these indictments. it absolutely matters. what we're dealing with is a situation that i have certainly never seen in my 55 years in american politics, which is a level of devotion to one man, regardless of the facts of that man's life, unlike anything i have ever seen that is unique. other maga figures try to step forward and step in trump's shoes, and guess what, they lose all the time. trump himself has this unique hold and this is what we're fighting against. and, yeah, if you're talking about a matter of should, he should be disqualified on eight, nine, ten different grounds. we are where we are. >> john gantz, we had him on a couple of months ago. he's written a book about the 90s and the craziness of that era. he was arguing donald trump is an exceptional figure, a unique figure, and there's nobody waiting in the wings that could take on the mantle. he has a certain charisma, magnatism that it's just not shakeable. speaking of magnetism and not shaking people, lara trump who's firmly in obviously her father-in-law's corner. she's now cochair of the rnc, here's what she says about larry hogan, who says that this was a fair verdict. >> what i'll tell you is that we of course want to win as a party but that is a shame, and i think he should have thought long and hard before he said that publicly. but what i can tell you is that as the republican party cochair, i think he should never have said something like that. i think that's ridiculous. >> the pull, the magnetism that donald trump has, is it going to extend to larry hogan running for the republican seat in maryland, running across a more formidable candidate in a democratic state. >> he's up by seven points today, okay, so there's that. yeah, lara, doesn't know what the hell she's talking about. chris as well. they're flapping about a state they know nothing about. larry won the first time in 2014, to successfully emerge victor four years later for a second term. the first republican governor to do so in 60 plus years, 70 years. so, you know, again, these national rnc types are flapping their lips about maryland. that's one, but then two, why would you undermine the efforts of a republican candidate when you so desperately want the senate back and all of that supposedly matters. it tells me that maga matters more than the principle of winning the seat. maga matters more than having a cogent perspective on the conviction of our nominee on 34 felony counts. it's more important that you sew loyalty to him and the brand than anything else. so, you know, this race is going to be an interesting race. it's going to be a good race for both parties. i think the candidates on the democratic side, the republican side are both executives. one county executive and also governor larry hogan are going to compete, and they're going to have to cobble together the relationships and the coalitions they're going to need, and larry's got an advantage in doing that. maryland is a 2-1 democratic state, in case you didn't know, it's 2-1 democrats. so you should check your information before you run your mouth about a state you know zero about, number one, and number two, the devil wears a red tie, that's all i'm going to say about that. >> michael steel, and david french, i liked the conversation i went six minutes over. thank you so much for being with us. i appreciate it. >> thank you. coming up, the argument for prison time, what donald trump could and should face, plus, what president biden is saying about his son hunter's federal gun trial on day one. they are selecting a jury today. and new doubts over a truth seal put forward by the israeli government. what prime minister benjamin netanyahu is saying about the proposal that was outlined last week by president biden. we are back in 90 seconds. in 90. nothing dims my light like a migraine. with nurtec odt, i found relief. the only migraine medication that helps treat and prevent, all in one. to those with migraine, i see you. for the acute treatment of migraine with or 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let's drive. now that we've solved all of the complicated politics surrounding donald trump's conviction, let's dive into what's next for him. his sentencing is in about five weeks. jail time is a possibility, but judge juan merchan said during the trial it was not a necessity for a conviction like this. a class e felony. some legal scholars like norm eisen, special counsel to the democrats during trump's first impeachment disagree, arguing jail time is necessary in this specific case. writing for the op-ed page of the "new york times," eisen that jail time would teach a lesson about consequences and serving as an alarm bell to the american public. joining us now, rebecca roiphe, and "new york times" political analyst peter baker. jail time, rebecca, a possibility? >> i think it's a possibility. i think it's unlikely. look, the theme for alvin bragg has been no man is above the law. treat this person as you would treat any other person, and it is true that president trump has treated these proceedings with contempt, and, you know, violated gag orders repeatedly, and that is the kind of thing that a judge normally does take into effect when determining whether or not jail time is appropriate. that said, obviously there are so many complications in a case like this that i do think it probably would be unlikely. >> let's play what donald trump says about jail time. >> i don't know that the public would stand it. you know, i'm not sure the public would stand for it. i think it would be tough for the public to take. you know, at a certain point there's a breaking point. >> so he says that about jail time. if he's not going to get jail time, what could he get? >> you know, he could get probation, educational background get some kind of home arrest. >> how does probation work? what does that actually do? what consequences does he actually face if it's not jail time? >> so probation is essentially like you are under supervision. it's humiliating on a certain level, in order to do anything, including go to a different state, you need permission. that is the kind of thing that -- >> do you see him even asking for permission. >> with the threat of jail time, don't you think he might play chicken? >> i mean, yes. judging from how he has behaved in the past, maybe he would do that. i think there is, you know, a limit, a point at which he can't push this behind that point, and he would be put in jail, any person is put in jail if they violate their probation conditions. so, you know, i don't know. but i do think that would be difficult for him to swallow on a certain level. >> it is a matter of the justice syst