i'm erin burnett. we are getting exit polls from wisconsin where republican governor scott walker is fighting to keep his job in what likely is the most expensive recall election. the results of the election will say a lot about how the state and the country is going to go in november. that, of course, is the $64 trillion question. john king with the exit poll numbers. what is crossing right now? >> could be the $80 million question. the results are fascinating. we are going to be up late tonight. this is a very close race. what started all this? a big fight over efforts to restrict collective bargaining rights to get union members to pay more for health care. our union members dominating the vote today. interesting question. 32% of the vote is in the recall election say someone in their house hold is a union member. it was in the 20s in the 2010 election. this tells you the labor unions are getting turnout. we are seeing other data suggesting republican voters are coming out in higher levels than 2010. that has a number that has the democrats happy. here is something you talked about this a lot this week. the enormous amounts of money being spent on this race, a lot of outside money. despite that money to influence people with late tv ads only 3% of the people who turned up today decided today. only 4% decided the last few days. 12% decided shall we say latish. 88%, nearly nine in ten voters decided before the month of may so tens of millions of dollars of tv ads didn't sway people. number one this is a grumpy electerate. 50% of the voters in wisconsin today say they have an unfavorable view of the republican party. 47% favorable. you might think that difference bodes well for the democrats. sorry. view of the democratic party 50% unfavorable. in the state that has been polarized by these fights we have a very, very close election. the exit poll data is fascinating. when you look ahead to the presidential election. the one bottom line a lot of money spent and it is very, very close. >> it is amazing. a lot of money spent and only 3% of people decided today. a low rate of return on your money. i know it's not an investment in the traditional sense. thanks for john king keeping watch on the exit polls. a lot of you might say i am not surprised. let's kick all the bones out. one person who has kept a pretty low profile is president obama on this particular case. weeks of radio silence broken late last night when he tweeted it's election day in wisconsin tomorrow. and i'm standing by tom barrett he'd make an outstanding governor. bo. the worst initials ever. a bold tweet from the president. should president obama have done more to help the democratic candidate or to stand clear? he has almost always gone democratic. we ask the political strike team to weigh in. our team of political reporters and analysts are going to be breaking down issues for us. 70% said no the president should not have campaigned for barrett in wisconsin. 30% said he made a mistake by staying home. john avalon joins us, paul and david. john, you are the aye on the strike team. >> when an election is this close. i think you want to do everything you can. the president could have polarized further. the big question is why the dnc didn't play harder. mayor walker seems to have outraised seven to one. you don't want to leave anything in the locker room. >> and do you think the verdict on the president's side is don't risk the hit. the hit is worse than the benefit? >> my guess is that was the assessment. i think he needed to go in there. i don't think it would have been outcome determinative. it is already polarized when you are spending 50, 60, $80 million in a state it is polarized. for his own good i would have gone in there. wisconsin is not a swing state. he won by 14 last time. even now he is leading by 8 that shows walker ahead. that's not the issue. it's that when somebody stands with you you stand with them. this is raw politics 101 so he can look at members of the house and senate and other governors and say when this guy's back was against the wall i stood there for him. this guy tom barrett. barrett when he was mayor of milwaukee endorsed senator obama against sen trp clintator clint. >> what is your take? i'm curious taking a step back this state could never go republican. both of these states laekted republican governors. there is a little confusion on that. why not? >> if this president is to stay in politics he will have opportunities. what happens in wisconsin is ghost of christmas future if and when the economy begins to recover. every state has huge reckonings to do with promises made that will be impossible to fulfill. and there are going to be fights like this in state after state over the next decade and next generation. the states are going to face this agony. do they provide services now or pay for the pensions of the people provided services before cannibalizing services now. if the president wants to join that fight there will be opportunities in california and a lot of places. this is coming to a state near you. >> this is why this is such a closely watched fight. whoever comes out ahead it's going to be read as a mandate to embolden more to try to take on the union or a warning shot. the reason we are here at this very rare place where a recall occurs is because governor walker made a classic mistake of overreach and that promotes a back lash. >> unlike chris christie who we pointed out also took on the unions. >> chris christie did it. didn't need to be so polarizing and paying that price tonight. >> three weeks ago the obama campaign laid out several paths to victory. we love it because we love to talk about whether things add up. here is the thing on wisconsin. does it add up. every plan showed wisconsin in blue. today they released an updated map that showed wisconsin as a tossup. why did they do that? to show we can win anyway or they are getting nervous? >> i think clever expectations adjustment the night before. it noculates them if it doesn't go their way. i would love to hear what paul has been hearing. >> is wisconsin a tossup? >> no. it's not. you pay me to tell the truth. i can pretrend that it is in the sense ill or well. it is five months away. the only time -- the last time it went republican was in ronald reagan's land slide. if it goes for mitt romney it may be a land slide. >> anytime someone says with all respect i get scared. >> new jersey has a governor. arkansas has a democratic governor. it is going for mitt romney. these presidential level races in states like wisconsin sort themselves out very early. president obama is going to win wisconsin by at least five. >> with all due respect i have to hit pause on the conversation. senator ran paul wants to make a big change in american policy. and did president clinton going rogue again? just said something about the bush tax cuts and it doesn't add up. what goes through the mind of a canble? 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>> well, you know i think what we need to do and if the president negotiated from a point of strength, if he told the pakistani government you are not getting one more kent more i think he would be released tomorrow. if you tell them you are going to cut 3% of next year's budget and keep spending the 500 million we haven't given you so far i think that looks pretty weak and they laugh at us and say we will cash our welfare check and keep doing what we want. if you want to influence their behavior at the least you should tell them you are not getting more unless you do behave. >> i understand that but what happens in thei interim. the antiamerican sentiment is a bit overwhelming. and they have nukes. just abandoning it all don't we put ourselves more at risk. >> i think very little of u.s. taxpayer money helps anyone who is impoverished in the country. the history of foreign aid has been rich autocratic leaders stealing the money. mubarak allegedly stole and was worth billions and billions of u.s. taxpayer dollars that he skimmed off the top. i think the average ordinary pakistani never sees any of that american money. >> do you think we can work this out with pakistan? every example seems to be an example of failure for them to support or work with the country. some of it is america's fault. that seemds to be consistent whether gorge w. bush or barack obama. >> i think both parties. people understand negotiation from strength. if you say you are not giving them aid their ears will perk up and we would get results. if you say we cut aid by 3% not this year but next year they will say so what. when i threatened to remove aid from egypt within two weeks 16 americans were released. if you threaten to significantly change policy i think they would sit up and take notice. >> and i want to turn topics tonight because it is a big night tonight at home. with a scott walker victory, the whole recall is based on fighting the unions, does that embolden you in washington to say let's go more for cuts on pensions and medicare and entitlements? is that how you take it as a mandate for you in washington? >> i see none of it that i am jumping up and down to do. social security i don't see it as my mandate to say i want to make everybody wait longer. i see it as something i have to do to save the system because we had the huge population of baby boomers. we are living longer. there is about 2 1/2 workers for every retiry. it is not a mandate to get what i want. it is that i see that we have to do this or social security will drown under a mountain of debt. >> you and i talked before and you talked about your support for say means testing of medicare. are you similarly also for closing loopholes in the overall tax system that would end up with the wealthier in this country paying more? it would be an effective tax increase. are you for that? >> i'm for a simple tax code. my budget, my five year balanced budget has one rate, 17% for corporate, 17% for private and has almost no deductions. you fill it out on one page and then there wouldn't be special deductions and no individuals paying no taxes and no companies paying no taxes but there would be no companies paying 35% income tax which is twice what the rest of the world is paying. we are losing companies overseas because we are the highest tax rate in the world. that has to come down. >> intellectually you are all right with some people all in may end up paying more than they are paying more. you get a simpler tax code and a simpler rate but they could pay more. >> absolutely. >> thank you so much. good to see you. >> thanks, erin. >> important point there. many coming on saying they are willing on the tea party side to have people pay more. we should be able to get a grand bargain. ahead a reverend in an american church made a bold decision and it has cost himp dearly. we have a special report. more body parts sent through the mail. authorities are talking about the possible connection to the man accused of murdering a student with an ice pick. mine was earned off vietnam in 1968. over the south pacific in 1943. i got mine in iraq, 2003. usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection, and because usaa's commitment to serve the military, veterans and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. the incredible cost. a church leader in minnesota spoke utin support of gay couples. he was ahead of his time in term of a national debate. it was just after massachusetts became the first state in the country to legalize gay marriage. reverend never expected what would happen next. his congregation abandoned him. now he is on the verge of losing his church. we went out front to minnesota to find out if the reverend regrets what he said. ♪ this little light of mine >> the grace community has seen better days, the empty pews signs of a congregation shattered. >> categorically they said i cannot be a part of a church that accepts same-sex marriage. >> reporter: white lost 2/3 of his predominantly african american congregation. >> they thought i was a hertic and that i was not leading them to christ. >> reporter: seven years later white's congregation still has not come back. i was invited to watch what could be the last service before the church closes its doors for good. what i saw was a far cry. when services started a few minutes ago there were only about 20 people in the pews. more than half of the people attending today are visitors. the church is now in financial ruin. the few members that still remain say they couldn't overcome a stigma. >> you don't talk about it. if you are gay you are wrong. it is very prevalent in the black church that you do not talk about it. >> you pray about this a lot? >> every day. >> reporter: what do you pray for right now? >> $200,000. 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