and finally, the two top presidential candidates in egypt, two former office mates now rivals. let me first give you some of my own thoughts, having spent some time in cairo and actually listened to president obama's speech from here in tahrir square. the president's speech was remarkably comprehensive. it described the events that we now call the arab spring, explain their causes and consequences. he placed the united states squarely behind the democratic wave everywhere. though he didn't specifically mention one country. saudi arabia. the place where america's interests and values most obviously clash. i don't blame him. street protests in saudi arabia might warm our hearts, but they could easily lead to $250 a barrel oil and a global recession. that's a tough one. obama outlined specific policies to help the arab revolutions get consolidated. all good stuff. and he also talked about the need for a resolution of the israeli/palestinian conflict. with two states based on 1967 borders with land swaps that both parties agreed to and the palestinian partner that renounced terror. a blow at hamas. in other words, it was a comprehensive, fair, balanced speech. but the most difficult aspect of this arab revolution is not in understanding it right now. its causes are clear. the problem is it remains very much unfinished business. in egypt, where i stand, a successful people's movement dazzled the world and toppled a military dictatorship from power. but who is running egypt these months later? a military dictatorship complete with arbitrary arrests, torture, military trials and tear gas. will the egyptian military genuinely devolve power to a democratic structure of authority? will the military allow genuine economic reform that will disempower them and empower a new generation of egyptians? these are the obstacles to egypt's democratic future right now. and the united states should focus much of its attention on egypt. the arab world's largest state, the heart of arab culture, the font of ideas for the region. if egypt succeeds, it will change the arab world. if it fails, if this revolution fails, it will send a terrible message throughout the region. obama chose the right audience to give his speech, america's foreign service, because ultimately it will not be a speech by which arabs will judge america but the countless actions of american diplomats over the next few months and years as they struggle to make a break from the past and enter the modern world. let's get started. by every account, egypt's revolution was genuinely spontaneous. a few groups, until then small, called for protests in tahrir square. the protests had, until then, been small, often involving a few thousand people, at most. but this time in january of this year, perhaps because of the example of the revolt in tunisia, many, many more came. and as more people streamed into tahrir square, others saw them, get involved and then came out as well. and it all started with a few young people. precisely because it was so spontaneous, i can't really bring you the leader or leaders of this movement. but i've invited some prominent leaders, activists, who represent many of the groups and the people who were out there on the streets of egypt for those many days in january while the world watched with awe and respect. and i'm now joined by waleed rashid, who is a spokesman for the april 6th movement, which was one of the key groups that organized some of the protests in tahrir square. by sara abdel rohman, who is a classic student activists and she adds a video blogger. sara was at the square from day one till the last day. also a student activist, a law student who has been very active during the protests as well. and the lawyer to every activist/protester who has been involved in these protests, a human rights activist and a lawyer. so let me just begin by asking sara a simple question. how has the revolution fared so far? >> i believe that the revolution hasn't really happened yet. it's an uprising so far. the gains of the revolution we haven't really seen. we are now under military rule. the military is completely abusing their powers in terms of military trials, abusing the protesters and controlling the media. so to me, we are actually planning another protest on the 27th of may. >> when you look at this situation, there are a lot of people who i met in egypt who say, well, there's people that are being too impatient. there is a path. there was a referendum. there is a process that's been laid out. why are the students -- why are the revolutionaries so impatient? >> we're in a point of our history where we are rebuilding egypt. we have -- we are -- we have -- we are trying to remove the old foundations in order to set new foundations built on ideas of democracy and justice. and we're trying to steer away from all the negatives in the past that we used to accept, and we stayed silent. hence, because we are in this phase of rebuilding egypt, all the injustices that egyptians used to accept before the 25th of january, we cannot accept now. >> you probably have a closer sense than anybody of to what extent is the martial law, the arbitrary arrest still in place? how severe are the injustices even now? >> we believe and we know that the fight and the struggle is long. it's going to take time. and despite right now the picture doesn't look great, yes, there are people being arrested and put on military trials, not just the activists but regular citizens, you know, who break the curfew or are framed for cases of possession of weapons or, you know, anything. >> the number is 10,000 people in the military right now. >> yeah, i think it could be a bit less now, but it is definitely between 5,000 to 10,000. i think nobody really has the statistics. i think the pressure and the campaigns by the local activists, by some international media on these issues has forced the supreme council, military forces, the armed forces to take another look at why are they going to the military trials and to say, okay, maybe we need to take a step back and not put civilians on trial. >> sarah, is there a danger that the egyptian people, they're going to say, you know what, we've had it, we've had enough of these protests. we want a normal life. the economy is doing badly. we don't need another revolution right now. >> actually, i think that this is already happening. as i mentioned before, the military is using the media, you know, to get people to think that there's no security in egypt. and they're making the people think by certain media messages that the economy is going downhill, not because of anything but these protests. and these are -- these protesters and these revolutionaries are the ones responsible for -- if you don't have dinner on the table, it's probably the protesters in tahrir. now, the military is playing a very smart game. i mean, if you spoke to me two weeks ago, i would have said, i love the military, and i would have been very happy with our revolution, you know, very hopeful. but what happened in the past few days is that i realized that the army and the police deliberately ignore hospitals, so ers, they close. thugs attack hospitals. they ignore police stations that are being burned every other day. they come to peaceful protesters and they start arresting them. they leave the thugs that attack these protesters, but they concentrate on dispersing and cracking down on peaceful protests. >> waleed, your movement, the april 6th movement, was invited in by the military to talk to them. what is your sense? do you trust these people that they are trying to preside over a transition to democracy? >> to be honest with you, there is nothing called trust or not. you are telling me something, okay, fine. you can say anything easily. but what about actions? nothing. they keep saying okay, fine, we'll do, we'll do, but no actions. you are telling me that okay, fine, there is no military courts. some guys are arrested, they put them in jail, and we don't know anything about them. for a few day wes do not know what is the location of them. we don't know what the number is. so many things are going like that. here people are saying, according to sarah, some people are saying in egypt that army is the red line. nothing is called red line. the red line must be my freedom, my rights. yeah. >> what is the demand if there is a second set of protests? the first protests were so successful because there was a very simple, powerful, evocative demand. the end of the mubarak regime. mubarak had to resign. if you gather in tahrir square again, what will be the demand that people in egypt and the world can understand? >> the second set of demonstrations will have specific demands. there are several demands. however, some of the most notable demands are an absolute end to military trials for civilians. if the military is going to rule egypt, going to rule the civilians, then they abide by the civilian laws. they don't subject us to military laws. freedom of the media without censorship, without control that is inflicted by several different authorities, mainly -- >> again, there is still censorship. >> that's the thing. there is still censorship. >> let me ask you, will you be there on the 27th? >> i will be there like i've been at every single protest for the last ten years. >> you will be there? >> i'll be there. >> you'll be there? >> we'll all be there. >> we're going down tomorrow. when we come back, i'm going to ask all four of them what they thought of president obama's speech, what they think of american foreign policy, in general, when we come back. >> this is the same regime that supported mubarak for the last 30 years. this is the same regime that up till this day has not spoken one word about saudi arabia simply because they're worried about whether or not gas prices are going to go up tomorrow. ♪ [ man ] at ge capital, we're out there every day with clients like jetblue -- financing their fleet, sharing our expertise, and working with people who are changing the face of business in america. after 25 years in the aviation business, i kind of feel like if you're not having fun at what you do, then you've got the wrong job. my landing was better than yours. no, it wasn't. yes, it was. was not. yes, it was. what do you think? take one of the big ones out? nah. ♪ and we are back with four student activists, so-called student activists. i discovered when got to cairo that most of the people were called student activists are actually not students. one of them explained to me, waleed, that when they started these pro-democracy marches five or seven years ago, they were students, which is why they're called students. waleed rashed, sarah abdelrahman, noor ayman nour, and ragia omran. noor, let me ask you something. before we get to president obama, your father ran for president against hosni mubarak and was arrested, beaten up. does he regard what you have managed to do as a success? when i say "you," i mean your generation? >> i think everyone in egypt, not just my father, but everyone in egypt, especially the older generations, for a period of time they just looked at the younger generations with admiration. and this is something that the younger generations are not used to in egypt. we are not used to older generations thanking us for our efforts and feeling like we did something. so obviously my father was one of the people who were extremely, extremely proud of our generation. and he was also -- him as well as many people from the older generations also joined in the revolution in itself. >> all right. now, as always, within america, enough about you, now what about what you think of us? sarah, what did you think of president obama's speech? >> the u.s. foreign policy, i believe, is completely inconsistent when it comes to the region. also, they decided very last minute to support the people of egypt during our revolution. you know, hilary clinton would say one thing, and president obama would say another thing every other day. they would not decide on what they want to do. >> do you think the general feeling, that the united states in general was too late in supporting the egyptian revolution? >> yes, especially, you know, we get hit with tear gas, and then we pick it up after the tear gas is completely taken over our bodies, and we see the mark made in the usa. so that did not really send the message that i think president obama is always talking about, about american values. >> i thought president obama was trying to do was to present the broad picture and say, look, in general, we support all these movements. of course there are going to be differences. of course there are going to be specific policies. but he was trying to say the united states is broadly in support of democratic reform everywhere. did that not ring true for you? >> to tell you the truth, i was not impressed. and i didn't expect to be impressed, like i was not impressed when he came to cairo and gave the speech. >> what would impress you? what should you -- >> i would like to have a consistent u.s. policy that is fair and broad across the middle east, if we're talking about -- >> but what does that mean? >> the american policy towards the arab countries and israel to be the same. if you analyzed what he said about israel and what he said about the other countries, completely inconsistent. >> noor, what did you think? >> i, like ragia, was not impressed and was expected to be impressed simply because obama is very good with words. if anything, the u.s. foreign office is very good with words and horrible with actions. i just -- all i could see was hypocrisy and the continuation of hypocrisy. >> and what -- is the hypocrisy all about israel/palestine, or is it about the issues relating to -- would you like him to take a stronger stand on syria, for example? >> okay. i would like him to take a stronger stand on any case of any atrocities that occur in the region, whether or not by an air arab country or whether or not by israel. stances must be taken. however, the problem is when i come to see the united states and their foreign policy, this is the same regime that supported mubarak fork the last 30 years. this is the same regime that up till this day has not spoken one word about saudi arabia simply because they're worried about whether or not gas prices are going to go up tomorrow. >> you guys are being very hard on obama. what would you say? >> you know, i didn't discuss it with noor, but really i have the same comment. to be honest with you, he has a very good -- he's very good in speeches and language. i like that point. i like it so much, but you can't keep promising me anything. if you would like to speak about us, you must speak about us from our position, from our view. >> i just wanted to add something to what you just said right now about understanding the arab mentality. i think that, you know, our revolution, i don't like the term "arab spring" because it's not a season. it's our demands. it's our rights. and i think that a lesson that we can all learn is that the obama administration had the wrong idea about -- i think they were fooled by the mubarak regime into thinking that egyptians are -- want mubarak and, you know, if mubarak leaves, then it's going to be the muslim brotherhood. that was the choice that mubarak was leaving obama. here in egypt, we separate between the american government and the american foreign policy that we're speaking of now and the american people. and i think that you have probably witnessed that out on the streets. if you say that you're american, you're going to be welcomed and there's hospitality. but i think that the obama administration doesn't really make that difference and didn't make that difference between the egyptian government and the statistics that they take from the egyptian government and the egyptian people. >> thank you all very much for a wonderful conversation. >> thank you. >> we will be back. welcome back to a special edition of "gps." i'm back in front of cairo's tahrir square, the place where everyone will agree history was made and egypt's politics took a great step forward. but have egypt's economics taken a big step backwards? one of the generals running the country presented a picture of his country's economy that made me think, what in the world? he says foreign direct investment is now down to zero. egypt's foreign reserves are fast getting depleted. then there's the tourism industry which employs 2 million people but is sitting idle with the world continuing to shun the pyramids and cruises down the nile. that's $1 billion of lost revenue every month. growth has crawled to a standstill. meanwhile, tens of thousands of workers emboldened with a new sense of freedom are staging strikes to demand better pay. confronting them would mean work stoppages. appeasing them would cost money. and the state's coffers airport aren't exactly overflowing. then there's oil. the revolutions of the middle east have sparked a cycle of pain in the crude markets. look at three countries that have been hit hardest by people power movements -- egypt, tunisia, syria. they are all oil importers. egypt then will go from growth in 2010 to shrinking gdps this year. now, look at the neighbors who managed to stave off the wave of protests through a mix of bribery and appeasement. qatar, saudi arabia, kuwait. they're all net oil exporters with vast cash reserves. that's why the dichotomy is actually getting worse, because oil importers need to spend more to buy the same amount of gas. also, to keep political support at home, they need to increase subsidies on things like food, potatoes, carrots because everything costs more thanks to oil-driven inflation here. and then there's this. unlike previous years, the gulf countries, the oil-rich countries, actually want oil prices to be priced higher because they need the cash. they need to support their own spending plans for more cities, for more payout, so suppress dissent. for the first time in history oil is averaging nearly $100 a barrel for more than a year. even the saudis need that cash. if egypt's economy doesn't stabilize soon, the imf will soon come knocking on its door. and what will it demand? economic reform to promote growth, of course, which means what? a devaluation of egypt's currency, possibly, the reduction of subsidies, the privatization of industries, anything to get the fiscal house in order and generate new economic growth. the problem is that economic reform is now a tainted idea. in the people's minds here, it's a phrase associated with gamal mubarak, hosni's son, and his businessmen friends. those policy changes made by gamal mubarak triggered strong growth in egypt, but also unequal growth, and charges that it unduly profited friends of the regime. over the last decades, however, countries from china to brazil have found that if you want economic growth, the surest path is reforms that open your economy up to markets and trade. but no egyptian politician is going to say that today. so the demands of economics will bump up against the demands of politics. who will win? egypt's future might depend on finding a creative solution to this problem. we will be watching closely. and we will be right back. >> i was not born on the 24th of january. i was ambassador of egypt, and i was minister in the cabinet, and i was a diplomat. >> unless you know under a new constitution what kind of country you're going to run, i can't apply for a job which i don't have a job description. i now want to bring you the two men who seem the most likely front-runners for the presidency of egypt, moussa and elbaradei. officially there is no race, no clock and therefore no official contenders for the presidency. but both party organizations, the press and street wisdom point to these two figures as