church stuff. i am tim pawlenty, mitch daniels, john thume, rich johnson, tim daniels or john mitchman. >> okay. live look at a misty time square. good morning, everybody. it is monday, may 16th. welcome to "morning joe." with us on set, we have msnbc and "time" magazine senior political analyst, mark halpe n halperin. national affairs editor, and in washington, msnbc political analyst, pat buchanan. it's big and back with us in new york, joe. >> joe scarborough is back. >> good to have you back. >> welcome back. >> thank you. >> and thanks for the lot of nice words over the past couple of weeks. >> tough time. >> and it really meant a lot to my mom and my family. i appreciate it. >> well, we've been trying to hold down the fort while you were gone. it fell off the tracks a few times. >> well, i go home- >> there was this one morning with newt gingrich. it was really rough. >> i completely disconnected, seriously, but when they threw the paper and threw out your mom's paper and the paper boy goes, barnicle sucks in pensacola, florida, you know something happened. >> we found -- we had a moment where we struggled for balance. and there was none. >> and i heard there was zero balance. that's why i'm here, just to kind of -- what were you calling it, ivy wasn't good in chemistry, you need all elements. >> right. >> i'm the grease. >> then i heard last week, there was a -- that you were walking down the street after a wildly successful book event in washington, where it was like beetle mania, all the women, i hate joe and all this stuff, and then margaret carlson grabbed you for the week awards and they're like giving out these awards, big black tie. >> for real work. >> then they asked you to talk about your book. >> that went badly. >> mika was like, why am i here? >> sorry about that. >> it was not a fight fit. >> it was not a shining moment for me. >> you know what they did the next morning in your absence? they ran a holiday clip show. >> did they really? >> thank you. i tried my best. >> that's all right. >> i'm just going to do the news because that's what i do. >> it was very nice. it meant a lot to my mom, the stuff all you guys were saying. >> it's a long road but we are really glad you're back. >> when i went down to pensacola, the red sox were like in last place. >> we'll get to that. >> a question how long it would take you to get there. >> the little engine that could. >> let's start with the gop, the 2012 presidential race is starting to take shape as republican contenders get serious about their campaigns. rumored candidate, huckabee said he would not seek the republican nomination on his fox news show saturday night and later expl n explained the decision on fox news sunday. >> think i would have made a fine president. it came down for me a very personal, intimate, as i explained last night in the announcement, a spiritual decision. last night, i laid my head on the pillow and had a very good night's sleep and i was at peace with the decision. i am today. there may be a point at which i will endorse and right now i'll see how the race unfolds and listen carefully how they develop their message. i will support the republican nominee. i'm a republican. unless a person is way out there and not clear on issues to me non-negotiable like the sanctity of life, i belief donald trump would be better for america than barack obama. he understands business. donald trump has taken a pro-life position, believes we're getting shanghaied by china, i agree with. >> as for donald trump, the "new york post" is reporting he plans to announce today whether or not he will run. one who is definitely in the race, newt gingrich, sat down with david gregory on meet the press yesterday where he criticized a house republican plan that would overhaul medicare. >> i'm against obama-care imposing radical change and i will be against a conservative imposing radical change. i believe all of us have a responsibility to help pay for health care. >> you agree with mitt romney on this point? >> all of us have a responsibility to help pay for health care. there are ways to do it that make most libertarians relatively happy. i said consistently you either have health insurance or post a bond or in some way indicate you will be held accountable. >> that is an individual mandate, isn't it? >> a variation on it. >> there you go. >> so much to talk about here. i want to work back to mike huckabee. let's first dissect what newt said. did he just, mark halperin, call paul ryan's health care plan radical? >> the did two pretty incredible things. first of all, newt gingrich calling you radical is something you need to think through and figure out his orientation. >> no. but -- >> he said the republican plan went too far, the first major republican figure not only to not embrace ryan but repudiate ryan and said it was a bridge too far for the country and went back to the position most republicans had during the clinton years that an individual mandate is a pretty darned good way to deal with the health care problem. two out there positions. >> pat buchanan, i don't get it with newt. of course, i rarely do. is he the moderate he was when he started running in 1974, has he read the polls and instead of saying i'm the fire breather, is he now seeking the mushy middle and attacking paul ryan. >> is he reverting to rockefeller republicans since 1974, joe? i don't know, he has cut himself off not simply from the tea party but the vast majority of the republican party when you talk about that individual mandate cuch chinkuchinelli in is against. he not only distanced himself from ryan's plan i understand, he repudiated it almost entirely? he called it radical. >> he is out in basically, out on the left wing of the republican party on the most crucial, i think, economic issue, besides the economy itself. >> i have to say, this confirms my biggest concern about newt gingrich over the past 15 years, rhetorically, he's far far right burt when push comes to shove, he's in the mushy middle. he didn't get run out of washington by us in '98 because, pat, he was a fire breather, he got run out of washington because he kept cutting deals with democrats, and they attacked us for being too conservative fiscally. what's his game here, pat? >> i don't understand this, joe. i can't think of a prominent republican nationally who is coming out for a national individual mandate, the obama position. >> attacking paul ryan. >> paul ryan as being radical, john heilemann, what's his game. you know gingrich. you have cops here every weekend at the track, what's his game? >> i find myself in the uncomfortable position defending newt gingrich, first, on the question of the individual mandate, it may be now the mainstream of the republican party considers that, but it was not what the mainstream republican party thought not only in the 1990s but five years ago, there were governors all over the country, republican governors thought the individual mandate was the right way to deal with health care. >> let's talk about paul ryan, calling paul ryan's plan radical. >> the language is very harsh. i don't think there will be a single mainstream candidate who will embrace paul ryan's budget for president, some will not go that far as to call it radical but you will not hear, i don't think, tim others embrace it. the polls are way too negative for the mainstream presidential candidates to embrace that. i'll be shocked if one of the others wraps his arms around paul ryan. >> these presidential candidates are going to be the -- >> trying to get elected. >> pat, they're going to be the republicans of the george w. bush years, spin spin spin. >> i'll tell you, what newt is doing is what the left wing of the democratic party is doing in that district up in new york, which is trashing paul ryan as a radical, as you said, joe, it's not simply saying ryan's got a courageous proposal, i'm taking a look at it. it's trashing it. this is the position of the democratic party and barack obama right now politically, they will take into the campaign of 2012, hammering ryan as a radical and newt gingrich has dealt them aces. >> it was newt night 1974 and '76, when he ran as a rockefeller republican. let me ask you, at least on spending, it's shocking, no, it's not shocking because it's newt. willie, what are we going to do when we can't have mike huckabee on 12 times a week. i'm disappointed he's not rung. >> he carried our show. mondays with night. >> prayers with mike, blessings with mike. >> can you stay through the break? >> he literally did the weather once. >> mike, a great candidate and i think probably, i think personally the strongest republican candidate, willie. >> atop some of the polls. >> i guess this comes down and mike knows better than i do, his personal life, making a ton of money, happy, hasn't had money in his life, as donald trump pointed out in that bizarre greeting, your ratings are terrific, building a big house in florida, life is good, why do you want to get into this race. as pointed out last night, this leaves a big opening for someone to fill that social conservative hole. >> both at the grassroots level and leadership level, conservatives want huckabee to run. why didn't he run? god told him not to. that's what he said. >> i don't think he said it that way. there's nothing wrong with trying to think about big decisions. >> that's the reason. >> he didn't say god told him not to. >> he sort of did. >> no. his faith plays a big part in a lot of our decisions that we make, but political ly, mark halperin, pretend you don't live on the upper west side. >> this is unprecedented. this race is crazy and wide open. we have never had the iowa front-runner, south carolina front-runner, evangelical call christian front-runner just say i'm not going to do it, it's never happened before. >> i spent time with him. three months ago i wrote a column and sat and talked to him in a casual way, i was interviewing him, i got the distinct impression then he would make this decision, if you listen to him talk about the thing about how happy he was about his business endeavors, money he was making, the house he was building and how enthused he was about that versus the way he talked about the prospect of running for president, which was with -- he wanted to be taken seriously, the fact he didn't think people took him seriously as he should be taken, that animated resentment in him, i hate to use the cliche, he did not have a fire in the belly about this, i must do this, well, i can see the arguments for it. what he talked passionately about was the house he was building. >> we heard from some time, not that he doesn't like raising money but barack obama will raise over a billion dollars this year, i don't think it's about the money he's making now, about the price getting into this presidential race and didn't want to spend every second raising the money. >> ultimately about beating obama. >> i think mike huckabee better than anybody else could have beaten barack obama, i don't think there is anybody else in the field i would say that about today. i think mike huckabee with the right money could have beat barack obama. >> so those around the president believe that. >> who does this leave? >> mitt romney and donald trump. >> george wills wrote this leaves us with tim pawlenty and mitch daniels and didn't mention mitt romney. does this make it more likely mitch daniels gets in? >> i don't think it impacts his decision. another guy without a lot of fire in the belly. >> pat, i'm sorry, what do you think? >> i agree huckabee was about the strongest candidate in this primaries and caucuses, republicans had. he, like sarah palin and michele bachmann got these follows and fire, this leechesaves a huge v. my guess is huckabee isn't getting in it for this reason, looked at it down the road and didn't think he could beat obama. i think he would have fire in his candidacy. i still think romney is stronger for this reason. romney can win blue states even if he's not loved by red states. huckabee is loved by red states but bumps his head when he comes north of the may joson dixon li >> one of the most attractive things about mike huckabee in 2008 was that incredibly pitthy and brilliant line he described himself, i'm a conservative but i'm not mad at anyone. that temperament is something republicans would do well trying to replicate going forward, all the candidates should focus on that, very important. >> also, while we talk about his faith and his prayers, he's also a christian, but -- and a preacher but not angry christian or preacher. he actually would not support cutting off home heating oil assistance to the poor, it's just he's what could be called a matthew 25 christian, who believes that you don't use the poor as political stunts. to say, i'm going to cut this program or cut that program for the poor? that may have been, mika, why certain organizations on the right did not like him, he was not harsh enough in many respects, especially economic issues. >> it's a weird time for the republican party. one of the things going on -- >> a weird time for that imf fellow. >> this is one of those stories that gets on the fronts page of the daily news, "new york post" and financial times because it's actually affecting world markets. the head of the international monetary fund and possible presidential contender in france, dominique strauss-kahn expected to be arraigned this mark after he allegedly assaulted a hotel maid in new york. >> you know what they think in new york, they think sarkozy set it up. my aunt said, come on, aunt carolyn thinks sarkozy set it up. >> i don't think you want to quote aunt carolyn right now. >> who's to say she's not right. >> he was arrested saturday just as he was about to take off in a plane bound for paris. authorities knew where to find him after he had called the hotel about his missing cell phone. police coached hotel security to tell the imf chief his phone would be returned to the airport, after strauss-kahn boarded his plane, the police came in to make the arrest. >> the more ral of the story, leave your cell phone. >> serious charges here, quiet now. strauss-kahn spent most of yesterday at the special victims unit as they looked for additional evidence. >> the story is he assaulted somebody? >> a maid went running down the hall. >> sodomized -- >> come on, man. >> that's the charge. >> just come on, seriously? >> that's the charge. you can tell i'm back in new york. seriously? we get halperin greg on, he p -- prayed -- and you guys -- >> i said what huckabee said the reason was. >> the only way to make a decision. >> george washington did it, good enough for george, it's good enough for me. >> i agree. >> what! >> what do you mean? george washington would always pray. >> i thought you were talking about that -- sorry, can't keep up with you. all right. trying to keep you from making jokes about a serious rape charge. >> no, no, i was talking about prayer. >> good. >> when we come back, "politico." brand-new poll out this morning, that may have some good news for president obama. the numbers straight ahead. also ahead, congresswoman jim clyburn and author of "newsweek" and the daily beast, first, to bill karins with a check on the forecast, bill. >> welcome back, only two hours and 40 minutes to go, joe. you'll make it. the forecast doesn't look great. what we saw yesterday is what you will see today, right through this week, as nice as last week was is as ugly as this week is going to be. rain showers and widespread, cloudy and dreary, forecast, heaviest rain later on this afternoon and tonight any thunderstorms, check out the forecast for d.c., chance of rain each and every day, i think the most soaking rain is tuesday and possibly wednesday morning. maybe, if we're lucky, we'll all clear it out this weekend. everyone is talking about the mississippi river, no flooding, we're dry all week, no additional problems there, you're watching "morning joe," brewed by starbucks. ♪ hey, dad, think i could drive? i'll tell you what -- when we stop to fill it up. ♪ ♪ [ son ] you realize, it's gotta run out sometime. ♪ [ man ] at ge capital, we're out there every day with clients like jetblue -- financing their fleet, sharing our expertise, and working with people who are changing the face of business in america. after 25 years in the aviation business, i kind of feel like if you're not having fun at what you do, then you've got the wrong job. my landing was better than yours. no, it wasn't. yes, it was. was not. yes, it was. what do you think? take one of the big ones out? nah. ♪ ???????????????????????????????? nah. what are you looking at? logistics. ben? the ups guy? no, you see ben, i see logistics. logistics? think--ben is new markets. ben is global access-- china and beyond. ben is a smarter supply chain. ben is higher margins. happier customers... everybody wins. logistics. exactly. see you guys tomorrow. newt gingrich on wednesday announced he is running for president using facebook and twitter where most people will think newt gingri gingrich is a potter character. you have to trust newt gingrich, he's been married three times. >> time to look at the morning papers, "new york times," the united arab emirates confirms it has hired a company ran by bl k blackwater worldwide to support its military. forcing governor jerry brown to break his pledge of giving california voters a vote on a series of tax hikes. he now says he will seek to enforce higher taxes first and get voter approval later. arriving in islamabad, senator john kerry said the united states reached a critical moment with pakistan and called very disturbing evidence of the pakistani government's knowledge of insurgent sanctuaries. time for "politico." >> to mike allen. a look at the playbook. good morning. >> happy monday, guys. >> the screaming headline across your website, obama polls well amid bad omens, you've done polling with george washington university. let's look at obama on the economy. >> this is a real game changer if this holds up. even though people are concerned about the economy, jobs, spending, they like president obama so much, as you can see, he's almost immune to how voters feel about that issue. voters are worried about the issue and he goes into the re-elect looking very strong. the administration is expecting unemployment in november 2012, when people go to the polls could be 8.2%. 9.0 now, not that much improvement. on paper, you might say that's a rel corrosive indicator for the president. what we're seeing in this battleground poll of "politico" from george washington university is his other characteristics, including the way people feel about him on national security after the osama bin laden takeout really might help him weather that storm. >> the white house likes that 42% number in light of all the economic data that's out there? >> yeah. because you would expect people are worried about the economy, they don't approve so much of how he's doing on the economy, and yet they still like barack obama as a person, as a president. we could expect to see the president more and more in settings where people get to see his family, get to see him and are being reminded why they liked him in 2008. he can't run on change, but he can run on being a barack obama and people like that still. >> and those head to head matchup, president obama versus mitt romney. 51% of people in your poll said they would definitely or probably choose the president over mitt romney. >> what we see here with mitt romney and tim pawlenty, we see the president starts strong against them. i think that's what we're going to see with this re-election campaign, sort of a colin powell doctrine, overwhelming force, starting with a huge advantage and they will work to preserve that wit funding,