tonight. so what do those voters want to hear? consistently those who want to like donald trump say they want him to be more controlled, more on message. while those who want to like joe biden say they want him to prove his age is not an issue. are either one of them going to deliver? and what exactly does delivering look like? what exactly is the metric for a good performance on age or on personal control? let's try to figure that out. joining us from atlanta, vaughn hilliard and staff writer for "the atlantic" and msnbc political contributor vonn leibovich. vaughn, donald trump is coming up with expectation. he's not controlled. he's not polite and he interrupts and over talks, but this is a situation that will cut him off. his mike will be cut. you can probably still hear him if he keeps talking and his microphone will not be on and are we going to see a different donald trump tonight? >> this is going to be his 17th debate, katy. as you said, this is not new for him, and of course, the last two times he debated were back in 2020 and against joe biden and those were two slightly different debates and the first one was very chaotic and he interjected more than a hundred different times if you were to go through and count, and the second debate after he was panned for coming off as overly aggressive and not giving joe biden any due time he came off a much more controlled, if you may, and a little bit more poised, and i think that's a question of exactly where does donald trump come in today? if you follow his social media post over the last several hours he sent quite a flurry of them in all caps saying joe biden is a threat for democracy calling on fox news to have the communications director for the biden campaign on and he doesn't feel he needs to prepare for his debate and a source familiar tells john allen saying that he'll have a refresher on his flight from mar-a-lago here from atlanta before the debate. if those other 16 debates that donald trump has been a part of are any indication, we should expect that someone should eagerly pounce, take personal shots and try to -- we have to see him shake his head when any other individual calls into question his integrity or his character and you could easily suggest that there has been a lot to contribute to that over the last four years since he last debated, of course, four criminal indictments and a defamation suit that helped him be found liable for sexual abuse and a $350 million fine including -- >> the bar has been set so, so low, saying that he'll be on drugs and juiced up with something which is ludicrous, but since the expectations are so low set there by them, what exactly does success for joe biden look tonight on the issue of age? >> i mean, it's hard to say. some some ways joe biden has outperformed expectations in some big moments whether it was the state of the union address a few months ago in other speeches and other debate performances in 2020 and so forth. so we've seen that he can rise to occasions like this, but what we've also seen is, i mean, with the state of the union, i mean, that really sort of quelled a lot of talk about his age for exactly two weeks and if you look at it, the age questions hit right back at him whether it was the wall street journal piece that came out last month and if you look at it the center he generally holds that his approvals are still in the high 30s and they haven't ticked up much. what's different is that, yes, as vaughn said, trump's been in a lot of debates and nothing like this, not only was the last one almost four years ago, but the last one, trump is used to a spectacle. he's used to a studio audience and used to an open mike at all times. no one knows how he's going to react to that and also add to that the fact that the two of them will be in the same room together for four years and they've been seemingly been obsessed with each other in some weird way in that our politics have been circling the orbit of these two personalities and look, they'll be in the center and what's that going to look like? they're both political people and they know how to connect and how to ignore and snub. it's weird. it's weird. >> we talk a lot about joe biden's age and let's also mention that donald trump is up there. i've been following him for so long, he doesn't sound like he used to. he doesn't have the same energy he used to have. he never made the most sense, but donald trump is a different person today. are the expectation too high for him, mark? >> yes and no. they're high in that he can basically operate in a kind of consequence-free environment with his supporters because they have proven time and time again that they will celebrate everything that they can sort of put under this umbrella or whatever donald trumpism is, so yeah, he can say all kinds of outlandish things that we would say that's really going to hurt him. you know, that formula doesn't really apply here, but look, the singular gaffe, i don't think is something that is going to trip up donald trump in the way that it could biden just because biden, by virtue of his own dignity has a higher bar for himself and has a higher bar for how a president should act and he actually subscribes to the same kind of codes of shame and trying to be accurate that most politicians in our lifetime have and donald trump operates on a different standard. >> it's important to note that joe biden sets the bar high for himself and he sets the bar high for the presidency and donald trump's bar is much, much lower and this is air force one landing in marrietta, georgia, arriving for tonight's debate. >> former chairman and co-host, michael steele, it's good to have you. it will be a long night. >> yeah. let's talk about the rules because there's a lot of discussion about the rules giving donald trump control that he does not have, making him look like he is not, giving him a sense of moderation that he doesn't have. he's not a moderate guy, he's not a controlled guy. he's not composed and he is chaotic and he will be forced in the box and with the cut mikes and the no audience. does that help donald trump, does it help joe biden or does it help donald trump hurt joe biden? who is this going to benefit? >> i find this particular debate to probably be one of the most important in the last -- well, 50 years. certainly, since kennedy and nixon because a lot of our presidential debates have become skeptical. they've not become matters of substance and matters of raw understanding of where each of these men, individuals will lead the country and i think this moment will afford the country that. i'm less concerned about whose bar is set where. i just want to see them talk to me as the current president and a once and presumably hopeful future president about what -- how they see the country right now. how do they assess the last five years going through what we've been through, economically, culturally, socially and certainly on issues like civil rights being pulled back and, of course, that little thing called an insurrection and the denial of, you know, election and the non-peaceful transfer of power. those things are going to be important. so i'm less interested in this -- in the horse race that a lot of folks want to set up. i love this debate because it's raw. there are no catcalls and stupid-sounding idiots in the hall, but rather an empty room with two moderates and two men who want to be the president. >> i wonder because of that, we had frank lutz who has said he's been following debates forever and doing the focus groups, the policy isn't what gets through and what gets through is the one-liner and the intricacies of the debate and because there's no audience and no clapping. y wonder, do you think that we'll get a debate on policy? are we actually going to have a debate tonight and not just two people appearing next to each other? >> we could. that's a good question. i mean, i don't know. this is what i love about this debate. there's so much about it we don't know because we've never been in this space before. we haven't been here in a long time, put it that way and what has made those other debates stand out is the one-liners and why did the one-liner work? because the audience whooped it up when they said it -- when it was said. it may have otherwise fallen flat with voters. in the 1960s the folks who heard kennedy and nixon thought that nixon won. the folks who saw kennedy and nixon thought that kennedy won. so everyone's going to bring their own impression, first impression of this debate to their decision about who the next president is going to be, and i think we should be excited about that and stop trying to pick the winner and the loser before they actually open their mouths and say something and let it happen organically. >> i sometimes -- to bring you behind the scenes get frustrated with the endless conversations leading up to an event and i find there are only so many ways you can talk about something. you really have to watch the debate and allow it to unfold and watch the event and allow it to unfold and we can pick it apart later. i am curious about tonight. i am also curious about the number of americans and the sheer number of americans who say they'll be watching and 70%. that's a lot of americans and a number of them, i think it's 16% of voters who say that their minds could change. do you think that many people -- >> i do, and because of the way this is coming about. i'm happy to hear of that 70% number, and i hope it's higher because you have two stark visions of what america is on that stage tonight. when one man says he wants to be a dictator and the other man is trying to prove he's not too old to do the job, and so that 16% number is big, and it can translate and cut against one of these two men in a way that we just didn't see a few months ago, and so i think this is -- this is what i love about this moment and i'm telling folks, grab your popcorn and sit back with your favorite adult beverage and open your minds and ears to what you hear because we haven't seen this kind of display of interest in wanting to be president. now she me. prove it to me. tell me what tomorrow looks like in your world view, and i think a lot of americans are curious about it. that 70% number is a big number when you think about registered voters out there or likely voters out there who will be making decisions and to know that they're interested in this -- in this way i think is a far cry from where we've been in the past. >> i think so, too. 83 million, i think, the number that tuned into hillary clinton debating donald trump. that was a really high number, and i think tonight could be even higher. we think about politics so much, but there was a lot of the country that doesn't focus so much on the day to day political happenings and they just have a feeling about how they think the country is going. joe biden has persistently had some pretty junkie approval rating numbers and democrats argue that listen, the approval rating may not actually matter because when they're confronted with the choice between joe biden and donald trump they are going to pick what they believe is the lesser of two evils and joe biden will be that person and then donald trump's chaos and the attempt to turn the election and the criminal conviction and all that stuff will just not be palatable. do you put stock in the approval numbers? >> i don't, actually because we have seen how joe biden, since he's been lech. his approval numbers have not stopped a demeanor democrats' accruing benefit from shg won the white house and he's been whiching away, although slim madgeority oft of the republicans in the house. i think this cycle is very different as was the last cycle in terms of how voters are coming into it. when you think back and look at how the economy was doing so much harder in '22. the big red wave was coming. joe biden was well under from where he is now and yet he still was able to short circuit that wave, if you will, and so i think that there is some value in understanding and condition contextualizing. it does not translate into i'm not voting for joe biden or i'm voting for donald trump. that's what, again, makes this such an interesting piece and the other thing you said, i think that's important about those voters who are coming to this who aren't, you know, junkies like we are, katy, where we sit here and we literally have our popcorn, right? and we really get juiced up about this stuff. you covering this the way you have over the course of your career and me being involved in it the way i have. so we see it at a certain level, but folks who are tuned in and haven't given a you know what about it and they're part of the 70% saying what has all of the fuss been about and who are the people now in this moment? >> it is interesting for both of them to lay out the future. >> president biden just arrived in marrietta, george a we saw him deplane air force one and now he's greeting local leaders and you can see him there hugging some folks. the opportunity they both have to lay out their vision about what the next four years will look like, and i know donald trump will come out with everything is terrible now and don't worry, i'll mack it better. i promise you, i can do it. job, i've thought about the threat that the team focuses on democrat see and what his next four years, what he thinks he can accomplish and that's one of the advantages that the president has is to not only talk about what brought us through, what idea is coming in the door on the heels of covid and the inability of my predecessor to manage it appropriately and the economy. now let me tell you how that translates going forward, and i think if there's anyone that will bring in the substance of policy, it will be biden because in one sense he has to. what trump will do is just nitpick at it and say how you know, how bad it is or how wrong he is, but he's not going to give you an alternative and he's not going to give you the nuance or anything close to a general purpose of his economic policy and explaining to us what 100% tariffs for anyone will do for our economy and it's still a sensitive area a it is. i think yau see very different approaches to on you, you, biden, has to push it up and out ask saying that won't work. that's bad. that didn't happen, but not really laying out what he would do differently and certainly telling us what it would mean and how it would impact us if he did. >> we'll try to talk about tariffs and talk about prices and he'll compare 20 to prices how and he'll completely avoid the handling of the pandemic and didn't go well for him and he didn't win the election. and the wars in the middle east with israel and the war in ukraine would not have started if he were president. he's said that before. i think that will be his answer to any foreign policy questions. michael steele, thank you so much. >> thank you, katy. >> press secretary and host of "inside with jen psaki," yay! you're in the building. >> thank you. thank you. >> most americans aren't watching cable news politics every day all of the time. >> pay attention to the election all of the time and they're just not in it yet and they're going off their gut at the moment with how they feel they are doing and a lot of americans say i don't feel i'm doing as well economically as i have in the past. >> the numbers tell a different story, but numbers aren't people and how does biden talk to people who don't feel good when the numbers look good. >> the key ting ing is i love when you say vibeses and if you're in the campaign the thing you probably worry about rid now is joe biden wanting a list of his accomplishments and to list that off and prove to people or to focus on listing the data of what his accomplishments has done. if he starts listing infrastructure projects it's not going well in the debate if you're sitting in the campaign. it's more about reminding people that he is the one fighting for them and donald trump is fighting for himself. you've seen that in ads. he did -- actually, if you look and i watched some of the past debates as well, if you look back at the debates even in the primaries occasionally joe biden will do this. he would say if you're sitting out there i'm a person who is fighting for you, and i'm a person who is going to work on economic things for you and i'll work on getting you a better job. that's what he needs to do is speak to the people at home. >> does he have to acknowledge that some people don't feel good. i understand you don't feel as good as you want to feel. i understand the economy doesn't look the way that you want it to look, but these numbers are here, and i believe that these numbers have set in. does he need to acknowledge. >> i don't think he thosz frame it that way or how he should talk about it. it's more about framing it as a contrast with the other guy and that's what the campaign is about. if you think back to 2012 and i was working for president obama when he ran for re-election and there are similarities that may work here. what president obama's entire message was about was about giving me four more years to fight for you. give me four more years to finish the job. that's what biden's message is and should be. the data tells you one thing and you may not be feeling another thing. it's conveying to people, i know out there that, you know, you may want a better job and a better life for your kids and i'm a person who will fight for that for you and it's drawing that contrast with trump. >> the idea that donald trump is going to have some imposed control. he's not going to be able to over talk and historically he's used to create a rowdy atmosphere. i'm sure you heard it, says though thee thinks -- >> that piece could and. >> you you can cut my mike right now and you can still hear me. >> that might be, but you won't hear it totally clearly in the audience. cnn is on television and they don't have any other reporters, i think, in the room so it won't really matter. >> what i'm saying if he keeps talking you'll still hear it despite the mike cut. >> you'll still hear, but the mike being cut is the nasty ringouts inclined in his soul, you won't hear. >> there have been folks on our network, and jen palmieri argued you should hear more of the nasty rants. >> i agree. the point is if you cut off his mike -- >> so you would have said no, don't do that. i would have said yeah because you want to know who trump is. and the moments that are memorable and the off-the-cuff moments. >> the shut up, man. >> the off-the-cuff moments. >> what is the moment that will mack you cheer and what is the moment that will make you want to put your face in your hands? >> i already mentioned a hands in the face moment is if joe biden starts listing infrastructure projects across the country i'll put my face in my hands. the moment that will make me cheer is if he pushes trump on abortion. ? it's not just about calling trump a criminal. i'm sure he will do that. it is factually true and this is not a normal debate for a range of reason, but he needs to pick a fight because there is something that can live the past tonight so the fight is it about abortion or do you want to extend tax cuts to millionaires and billionaires and will he extend a fight on immigration. i'miused hear donald trump's meb tour protect a portion in florida. he keeps seeing, and how is gotting to wiggle himself out that. >> there are a couple of rens that you can have an abortion ban and pushing him on state's laws and there are a huge number of states that basically have an abortion ban and joe biden can, too. >> jen psaki. ial most called you jen palmieri. thank you very much for joining us and rachel maddow and team lead special coverage and analysis of the first presidential debate hosted by cnn. jen will be there.