outfront tonight, whoa, whoa, whoa. it really was one of those days. the markets soared, the dow up 339 points. nasdaq and s&p up more than 3%. and there were two big reasons why. one, america defied skeptics with american consumers spending money. the u.s. economy grew 2.5% in the third quarter. twice as fast as the prior quarter. look at it compared to earlier this year. now, 2.5% isn't great overall, but it is a lot better than a lot of doomsayers expected. the other big news was europe. they made a deal to bail out greece. that deal also, not that great. but after 14 summits, any deal was enough to juice the markets and that it did. october now on track to be the best october for the overall markets since january of 1974. to put that in perspective, that was the year "blazing saddles" came out. >> we must do something about this immediately! immediately! immediately! >> thatrumf. >> i didn't get a harrumf out of that guy. >> apparently a movie a lot of guys like. >> 1984 also a year before cnn or i were born. stocks are up. gdp european deal. peter spent 20 years on the floor of the new york stock exchange. so one great day, and a great month, which kind of snuck up on us. are you optimistic? >> i am optimistic. and i'm optimistic for several reasons. both of the points that you mentioned are clearly the drivers. the gdp numbers, the macroeconomic numbers that we've been getting are both incredibly positive, surprisingly positive, given the weakness in some of the sectors of the economy. but also, the eu, as you had mentioned, there's a lot of work to be done. it still takes a lot of risk off table, particularly for the financials. so on a day like today, you've seen tremendous leadership from the financials. that's a very good indicator that there's still some room left on this move up. >> and in terms of this double-dip scenario, which is fair to say, our economic strike team had said, you know, 17 out of 20 of them, they did not see a double dip. now we get numbers like this. a lot of americans still feel like we're in a recession, but it doesn't look like we're going to have that double dip so many are dreading. do you agree? >> i definitely agree, but i must be honest with you. i was very, very bearish back in april and may. but a number that we see today, 2.5 on the gdp, that is definitely not recessionary. in fact, we've had quite a few quarters now of growth. >> thank you very much, peter kinney, optimism something we need. and the optimism is good, because confidence is what will get america and the world growing full steam again. but, for the optimism to become reality, 12 people must act. a group of 12 in our nation's capital that's holding america hostage. that is the super committee, charged with cutting america's debt within the next month. they have a choice to be bold and make a difference, or be something that merriam webster defines as, quote, lacking power, with the example being, political eunuchs. so a group of member of the house wrote a letter, saying they want to cut america's death by $4 trillion. they wrote in part, "to succeed all options from mandatory and discretionary spending and revenues must be on the table." jim heinz, member of the house financial services committee. thanks so much and good to see you. >> great to be here, erin. >> first of all, how many people have signed on to this letter? >> well, it's still in motion, but we've got close to 100, democrats and republicans who have said, we need to go big and keep everything on the forward. >> and that quote i gave was from a draft of the letter which said, all options were mandatory and discretionary, spending and revenues must be on the table. that line is still in there, right? >> that's right. and obviously that's a line that's hard for people in both parties to say, but there's a hundred of them now who have agreed to that language. >> so what about this super committee? it's interesting, we had mr. camp on last night. there is now a story out of reuters tonight that tim ryan, democrat on the house budget committee, says that there is broad sentiment in congress that the u.s. economy will not necessarily suffer from another downgrade, from the other two big agencies. is that broad sentiment in congress? >> i would disagree with that. look, there's a lot of concern arti articulated by a lot of us, if there's a failure on the part of the super committee, it continues the notion around the world that we can't govern ourselves. i would actually say there's real fear. and in addition to that real fear, if the super committee doesn't fail to come up with a good plan, you've got these automatic cuts that kick in that everybody hates. i mean, they're big, brutal cuts. so there's a lot of hope. i'm not going to go so far as to say optimism, but a lot of hope that these guys will get a proposal put together. >> cnn is reporting today that boehner, talking about those automatic cuts, because they hit in places that nobody wants, massive cuts to defense that scare panetta doesn't want, he says, let's take the cuts off, because they're bad, and that will force the committee to about. if that's the case, that's very concerning, because to me, that means the committee will do nothing. >> and the whole point is they are very bad. that's why they are there. they are there to make this super committee look like they've got some really serious troubles if they don't succeed. so they're bad and they're in law. john boehner may have decided he doesn't like them and he would like to do away with them, but they are in law. and they are what is ultimately going to get this super committee to do what it needs to do. >> so jay carney made a joke today about 9, and he was making a joke about the 9-9-9 plan, but just talking about 9 being a bad number. but it is the number of approval rating for congress. okay, so what are you guys going to do about that? what is it that congress doesn't get about the fact that people want something done? >> well, yeah, and people do want something done, but people also sent a group of 70 freshman on the republican side that were pretty uncompromising and have been pretty uncompromising. so i get it. you know, people are economically insecure, they're losing their jobs, they're losing their homes. i understand why they're angry at congress. they look at the bailouts, they look at partisanship and the bickering that occurs, but we all got sent here by more than 50% of our constituents. this is another reason why i think it's so important that the super committee get this done. because if we get it done, nobody's going to like what gets done. this is, you know, this is stuff that's -- >> and you're looking for $4 trillion in cuts, which is about three times as much as the super committee has to come up with. >> but it's also the number that stabilizes the united states debt. if it's not $4 trillion, we'll be back next year or the year after doing this again. >> and it is the magic number, if you don't get that, the downgrades, they keep coming. >> maybe. >> thanks so much, congressman himes, good to see you, and appreciate it. john avalon, what do you think about the letter, what john boehner had to say, and what dooung about tim ryan had to say? >> the letter is a major step in the right direction. you've got 100 members of the house in both parties encouraging the super committee to go big. it's not just that. when you spoke to senator mark warner a year ago, he said there are 40 members of the senate that are also encouraging the super committee to go big. that tells me there's at least 140 people on capitol hill that get it. they feel the urgency with regard to our definite and debt, and urging the super committee to hit that $4 trillion number. boehner and ryan, i think that's exactly the wrong message to send. it takes away that urgency and the sense of real consequence that's going to focus the minds of people in congress. >> and people like jim himes, who has worked in the banking industry, because he understands this downgrade is not something to trifle with. if what tim ryan of reuters is reporting is the case, that's very, very concerning that it's okay to get more downgrades, just keep bringing them on, it doesn't matter. it does matter. >> it matters enormously. the fact that statement was said shows how much some folks don't want to get it. s&p downgraded because they sat at the political brinksmanship. this was a message that was reinforced by ben bernanke. this is a self-inflicted wound we suffered, because of that dysfunctional the debt ceiling debate we had this summer. and everyone's been warned. this is not subtle. everyone should be clear in their mind about the importance of dealing with our deficit and our debt if you want our country on a long-term sound fiscal footing wifoot ing and everybody should. >> i have to say, the letter, and these things can fall apart, and they were trying to come up with it today, they don't have all the signatures yet, so it's still a working in progress. but the fact that they have 99 people that have signed, democrats and republicans, and my understanding is that at this point it's basically half and half, that includes revenues and includes cuts, and that word hasn't come out, neither one of them, that's something to applaud. because we want the leadership. >> it is something to applaud. and look, hope is not a strategy, but it's a step in the right direction. this formula has been understood. bowles/simpson, gang of six, they've all said that it needs to be done with a combination. some combination of cuts and revenue increases. and that can be done even by lowering rates and closing loopholes. so there's plenty of common ground to be built on here, if they can find the political will to be brave, be bold, and go big. >> all right. well, let's hope that they do. we're fighting for that here with the big ideas. thanks, john avalon. still out front, the latest on the six animals that had survived last week's slaughter in ohio. where are they now? they moved today. and former presidential candidate, john edwards on trial for his part in the sex scandal that derailed his career. and did you hear the one about rick perry? we can't resist telling you our favorite joke of the day. 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[ male announcer ] we're making people a more secure tomorrow. what can we make with you? transamerica. transform tomorrow. number tonight, 2,983,824,379. that is how many gallons of gas you can buy with exxonmobil's third quarter profit of $10.3 billion. a lot. okay. a lot of work and money goes into a gallon of gas. exxonmobil has a hand in almost all of it. 77% of the money you pay at a gallon of gas actually goes towards crude oil and refining. the government takes a tax out of this. but speaking of taxes, exxonmobil pays a lot of them. according to s&p capital iq, the effective tax rate on exxonmobil in 2010 was 40.7. yes, that is almost 6 percentage points above the statutory rate. we wanted to start this segment by playing the song "i want you to want me," but our rights and clearances people said no, although there is no doubt with that terrible singing, because that would no violate anything. the problem is, mitt romney really wants tea party love, but so far they have not supported him. it's been kind of anybody but mitt romney for the tea party. ron brownstein is senior political analyst for cnn. ron, good to have you with us. i know you've been looking at all the fine print, in every single poll out there, the recent cnn polls in early states, and have an inside track on tea party support. so you say the race has become two races on parallel tracks. what do you mean? >> i can take your "blazing saddle" reference and raise you back to "dr. strangelove." you have to go back to 1964 to see a race as volatile as this. six candidates have led in the polls. one of the reasons why the race is so volatile is because it is clearly evolving along two separate tracks. in your cnn polling, about half of the party identifies as supporters of the tea party. the other half of the republican electorate say they're either neutral or opposed to the tea parties. and these two groups are moving in very different ways. the non-tea party side of the party, they are moving pretty steadily toward mitt romney. he was at 16 or 18% with them in your polling in august and early september, up to 24% in late september. 35% now. meanwhile, on the other side of the party, he's stuck at around 17%, 18% with that tea party side. most of them don't want him. but they have been bouncing around. early on, michele bachmann had a spike with him and then rick perry over the summer was polling at about 35, 36% with the tea party. and now herman cain has collapsed. it's hard to imagine that is exactly where the wheel will stop turning with that side of the party. >> okay. if mitt romney does not get the tea party, does it matter? can he still win the nomination and potentially the election? >> i think he can win the nomination without the tea party. if no one can consolidate that side of the party as well as he is consolidating his side of the party. look at your state-by-state polls at this point, he's up to 30% in iowa, 39% in florida. 27% in south carolina, and 40% in new hampshire, roughly, among the non-tea party side of the party. and if he can build on that and there is a -- no one can consolidate the tea party side, he can be, in effect, a plurality nominee. there may never be a majority that affirmatively wants to nominate mitt romney, but that won't matter if no one can consolidate that majority and it fragments among several candidate. >> that'll be interesting. we'll see whether they go and vote regardless of whether they love him or not. all right. thanks very much, ron. good to see you, sir. >> thank you. well, today a federal judge refused to throw out the criminal case against john edwards. in case you have forgotten, the disgraced former presidential candidate. edwards will face charges of violating campaign finance laws by using nearly $1 million to hide an affair with rielle hunter and his child with her, as you see there. jeff toobin is cnn legal analyst -- >> and i'm just sitting here. were you even alive when cheap trick sang "i want you to want me." that is an old reference. i don't think you were. >> i don't know the exact year, but i may not have been. >> not "blazing saddles" either. >> although i have been told i must watch it this weekend. so this john edwards, he admits spending money to hide the affair. so is this a slam dunk case? >> it's just a very weird criminal case, because the facts are largely not in dispute. john edwards was near the end of miss presidential campaign. the disclosures started to come out that he had this child with rielle hunter. two of his big supporters, fred barron and bunny mellen put up nearly $1 million that goes through intermediaries and goes to rielle hunter, basically to cover her living expenses and keep her quiet. so the question is -- and everybody agrees that happened. the question is, is that an illegal campaign contribution, as the government says, or is it simply friends helping out a friend in trouble? >> okay. so, now, he's pretty confident he can win this. if i am right here, he had a chance to plead to a misdemeanor, he had a chance to take, what was it, just a few months in jail? and he said, no. and now there's a whole lot more at stake. >> right. it's really a remarkable thing that he turned down this plea deal, because he would probably not even go to prison at all, but he wasn't guaranteed no prison and he wasn't guaranteed that he could keep his law license, and apparently those are the big sticking points in the plea negotiations, keeping the law license and prison. and he and his lawyer, his legal team led by abbby lowell, they think they have a pretty good case. >> if he loses, how long would he go to jail? >> i would be surprised if he got a year, but he would lose a law license, which is a big deal. his political career is over, we know that, but he's in his mid-50s. he's got to make a living and he really wants to be a lawyer. he was a very talented and popular lawyer in his day. >> can he get a jury that is untainted on this? >> everybody hates this guy because of what he did, because of you know, his wife was dying of cancer, we all know the story. the problem is, the case is not really about that, it's about campaign finance laws. and the question is, will people's hostility to him carry over to this fairly arcane technical crime, and will they just say, look, we hate this guy, we're going to convict him, or will they look at the facts and say, this isn't why we're mad at him, it's just irrelevant? i don't know. >> jeff toobin, it's going to be an interesting one. i'm very curious, just to see what kind of treatment people get. all right, jeff toobin, thanks again. good to see you, sir. and outfront next, herman cain. he doesn't have really any endorsements and he doesn't have a formal-based support, but he is leading in the polls and that is the bottom line. his campaign staff, are they able to hold it together. well, guess what, the guy in charge, you know, that guy, he's coming on this show. and rick perry has a joke to tell us, and we can't resist sharing it with you. and the six animals that survived last week's slaughter in ohio, will they be turned to the owner's widow? 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