good evening everyone. i'm erin burnett. "outfront" tonight, the health care fight that doesn't add up. love it or loathe it. the individual mandate, the heart of president obama's signature domestic achievement is in jeopardy tonight. republicans are already circling the wagons. >> we made it pretty clear and i'll make it clear one more time. if the court does not strike down the entire law, the house will move to repeal what's left of it. >> there are three things to know about the bill tonight. as we count down to the supreme court's biggest decision of the year. first this, only one in ten americans would even be required to get health insurance under the president's mandate. yes, you heard me right. the mandate is wildly unpopular but it doesn't require anything from a lot of us. most americans already have insurance and another 22 to 24 million americans will be exempt from the mandate because they don't earn enough money to file income taxes or they're in prison or they're members of certain religious groups. second, if the mandate is struck down, but the rest of the bill is upheld by the court including those popular items like not discriminating against people with pre-existing conditions and helping keep kids on their parents' insurance, premiums won't necessarily surge the way some have predicted. a rand study says they'd only go up by 2.4% more with an individual mandate than without one. and that brings me to the third and by far the most important thing that americans need to know about this bill. it's a big problem. if the whole bill goes into effect, average premiums will still go up for americans by an estimated 7% according to rand. with no bill at all, premiums went up by 9% last year. you may be shocked. you're like, these are about the same number. they are. they're going up by more than inflation, many multiples of inflation, more than your salary increase if you even get one. the reason is that neither republicans or democrats ever have dealt with the biggest problem in the country which is that surging medical costs don't come with surging life spans or healthier americans. the average american, we spend about $8,000 per person in this country on health care. that's the most of any country in the world. for that, you would think if it were so great, we would live the longest. we don't. we live to an average of 78.2 years, 27th in the world. it comes after countries like greece and spain. "outfront" dr. toeb bip cosgrove, ceo of the cleveland clinic, and ron williams former ceo of aetna who was a vocal supporter of the affordable care act and now is against the mandate. dr. cosgrove, i know there are pluses and minuses to this bill. when it came to dealing with the surging cost issue yourks gave it an f. >> i'm very concerned about the law because we're adding 32 million more people to be covered and it's going to dlooif up cost of care. what we really need to do is do things to reduce the cost of care. we need a more efficient health care delivery system with hospitals collaborating and doctors collaborating with hospitals. and we need to reduce the burden of disease. we can't allow the epidemic of obesity to go on in this country. it's now accounting for 10% of the health care costs and expected to go to 20%. we need to begin to deal with those two things and they're underway right now. >> they're under way separate. this bill isn't something that comes in and deals with the fact that obesity drives so much of the health care costs in this country. >> no. in fact, we're beginning to deal with all these issues about having a more efficient health care delivery system. you're seeing hospitals begin to come together in systems. you're seeing doctors become employed and all of these give us a more coordinated system. we've taken a tremendous amount of cost out of the health care delivery system already and it's more coordinated. we need to do even more. >> ron williams, what's your biggest disappointment with this bill. this big signature moment and yet it doesn't deal with the biggest problem in this country, the surging costs. >> i think the biggest thing i'm really disappointed in is we weren't able to achieve a bipartisan coalition to really do something important to all americans which smaking certain we get everyone covered. i think we started out trying to focus on how we increase access, how we improve quality and how we reduce the rate of increase in cost. what we really created principally focused mostly on the access problem which is a very important problem if you don't have health insurance. >> right. but obviously didn't deal with the cost. ron, you were the guy that a lot of people hated. i'll be honest. you're an insurance guy. you're well aware of that. not the most loved in america. neither are we in the news industry. if you have to cover all these people, you need an individual mandate. you were for it. now you're not. why? >> i think i want to be very clear that i've always been a supporter of the mandate as part of a companion type of approach where you offer insurance to all comers, anyone who needs insurance can get it from their health plan. but the only way that works is if everyone is, in fact, required to have insurance. i think my objection to the particular legislation as passed really is simply an opinion that i believe the supreme court will not uphold this particular approach. i think the approach in massachusetts worked well there. it was something the citizens in that state were comfortable with. i'm not against the mandate in general. i don't think the particular legislation that really did not present the mandate as a tax but presented it under the commerce clause in my opinion, is what will not be upheld. >> dr. cosgrove, let me ask you a question about this issue of the mandate. one thing that stood out, only one in ten would be affected by it, 22 to 24 million americans will be exempt from it. it's hardly a mandate. >> what we're going to see, i think a couple things. first of all, i think we'll see more charity care if the mandate is ruled unconstitutional. the second thing i think we'll see is i think states will step in and begin to have their own mandates. i like like massachusetts does currently and i know they're already talking about that in california and several other states around the nation. >> one thing, dr. cosgrove, if you could address costs, people say, look, if people are overweight, they should pay more in insurance premiums. that becomes a regressive tax. if you would say there's one thing you could do right now to deal with the fact that we pay more per person than any country in the world and our life expectancy is 27th in the world, what would it be? >> i think the one thing we can probably do is begin to address the national collaboration among facilities and the second thing is to begin to have major push and discussion across the country about keeping yourself well. i think that's been left out of the discussion altogether. >> thanks very much to both of you, ron williams, toby cosgrove, appreciate your time. that ruling will come tomorrow on the individual mandate and the rest of the health care bill from the supreme court. still "outfront," what does the nra have to do with the contempt hearings for eric holder? everything, everything. this is a theory of epic proportions and democrats are involved. later a black police chief is fired in a texas town. does it add up? she might be days away from going home. after winning seemingly insurmountable battle with a flesh eating virus, her factor and sister come "outfront." moss of any small business credit card! pizza!!!!! 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the organization claims fast and furious began as part of an anti gun agenda. there have been theories out there that the obama administration set this up and sold these guns to drug runners because they thought something bad would happen. then it would look bad and it would look bad for guns and you could get gun control. theories like that. they'll consider tomorrow's vote when dolling out their letter graesds for congress. so far at least four democrats signaled they'll vote with republicans. cnn contributor roland martin and republican strategist hole land gibly. 31 democrats last year signed a letter to president obama expressing concern about the administration's response to fast and furious. of those 31, 29 have received donations from the nr i mean i don't want to draw conclusions where it would be unwarranted or anything. >> oh, but you can. the bottom line is the nra is an extremely powerful organization and they basically have threatened members of congress here. you can call it that when they say we're going to score this and use this when it comes to our evaluations of who we support and give money to. trust me, those democrats -- you have a lot of blue dog democrats, conservative democrats, they do not want to have to feel the rath of the nra when it comes to television ads over the next four or five months. we might as well go ahead and just say it. >> hogan, why is the nra getting involved, this conspire see of theories, this theory of conspiracies is a little bizarre. >> roland, let's be honest. maybe the nra is very popular among that constituency. that's the first thing. but the nra does need to tread lightly here. this is a serious issue. it's about eric holder in my opinion and it's about whether he was truthful to congress or not. a border agent of the united states lost their live, hundreds of mexicans as well. for people like us this eric holder trial or contempt hearing is going to be very important. we all watch it. we all care what's going on. for middle america who is really not paying attention the week before the 4th of july, the nra stepping into this thing might be the only way it's relevant. >> kyle, what do you think about that? is the nra going to be what makes this eric holder story matter for more people. i don't know about that too much. the nra moving this into the political category by scoring it, it's certainly something that, as polarized as this environment is and even as interest groups are polarized, there's opportunity for democrats to sustain the nra endorsement. it's a very important endorsement for a lot of rural democrats and conservative to moderate. when they actually get it, i think it's really important to them to really hold on to it. why this is really important is when it gets scored, it's something that they're going to have to deal with politically pretty much right away. >> roland? >> the nra can't stand this president, don't like this attorney general and they despise the atf. we can go all the way back to waco and the branch davidian compound. look how they have effectively blocked a real leader to lead the atf. they attacked him at every moment. the nra does not want there to be a fed rath agency when it comes to dealing with the issue of guns in this country. that's who they are. so it's no shock they are involved in this case because they want to bring this ag down. like you said, these crazy conspiracy thee reese, put them with the 9/11 troothers and birthers as total crack pots. >> some of these theories i've heard are truly absurd. >> right. look, there are so many things roland touched on me there for me to respond to. >> what about the specific issue of some of these theories, the obama administration actually did this whole operation hoping one day it would cause a problem for guns and they could use that to get to gun control. i could think of a heck of aa lot better ways to get to gun control. >> the nra needs to tread lightly here. the bottom line is right, the nra doesn't like this president. if you're liberal, you don't like the nra. it was a shrewd move to connect the dots if they're connected like i said before. i don't think middle america is paying attention to this trial absent a smoking gun. >> pun intended. >> they sure will be if the nra has something to say about it. >> hogan, say it, say it. this theory is crazy. go ahead and admit it. >> i don't know if the theory is crazy or not. >> come on, hogan. >> they're putting it out here and making this thing relevant for november. no, they don't like this president. that's pretty obvious. >> kyle, what do you think about the three democrats on who got donations from the nra but didn't sign that letter to the president about fast and furious. how important will losing the nra support be? do you think they'll lose it? >> i couldn't tell you if they'll lose it or not. that's the definition of walking a fine live when you're talking about conservative to moderate democrats and how they deal with this nra endorsement. it's something that they want desperately, but also a really big problem if their opponent, if they're running in a moderate to conservative district, their opponent is probably primed and really ready to take that nra endorsement and tout it really well. they want to keep it but also make sure they're maintaining their ties certainly with president obama and the democrats in general. >> a tough choice for them. thanks to all three. we appreciate it. next, google's quest to rule the world, making inroads to the ipad. and inventing a device that looks a little bit like a death star. fired from his chief as police chief in jasper, texas, an african-american police chief asks does it add up. homicide of young people in america has an impact on all of us. how can we save these young people's lives? as a police chief, i have an opportunity to affect what happens in a major city. if you want to make a difference, you have to have the right education. university of phoenix opened the door. my name is james craig, i am committed to making a difference, and i am a phoenix. visit phoenix.edu to find the program that's right for you. enroll now. sleep train's 4th of july sale is ending soon. time is running out to get the hottest deal on a new mattress. right now, save on sleep train's most popular posturepedic and beautyrest mattress sets. plus, pay no interest for 36 months on tempur-pedic and serta icomfort. big savings and interest-free financing? these deals aren't just hot... they're explosive! sleep train's 4th of july sale is ending soon. ♪ sleep train ♪ your ticket to a better night's sleep ♪ our third story "outfront," jasper, texas. it's a city that's no stranger to racial tension. it made headlines in the 1998 death of james bird junior who was dragged behind a pickup truck by three white men. that was 14 years ago. now racial tensions are again at an all-time high. the first black police chief of jasper, rodney pearson, was elected in early 2011 by a majority black city council. then last week he was fired by a newly elected city council with a white majority. deborah feyerick is out front. >> reporter: jasper, texas, is a sleepy town with temperatures well over 100 degrees in summer. it's not the heat that defines jasper so much as a crime that happened 14 years ago. >> when they tied him to the truck, as they came along here, he was going from side to side -- >> reporter: as texas's first black trooper, rodney pearson found the body of james bird junior, dragged to death by three white men. >> his head and shoulder caught this culvert and snapped it completely off his body. >> reporter: not long ago pearson became first black police chief, but his term ended after no more than a year. >> i make a motion that mr. pearson be terminated as police chief. >> reporter: he was fired in 2011, four black council members voted for him. the one white member didn't. 16 months later he was fired by a different city council, majority white. the vote also 4-1. >> i was fired over race. and now i feel that me and my family are marked. >> reporter: what seemed like a simple hire, has turned jasper upside down, reopening past wounds, pitting blacks against whites. >> our local radio station, kjas, they've made me a huge target. >> reporter: who owns that station? >> the mayor. >> reporter: mayor michael loud backed someone else for the job. >> when you looked at the nine finalists where did rodney pearson fall in terms of that scoring system? >> i think he was well down below, pretty close to the bottom of the list. they just wanted their pearson in there. >> reporter: pearson says his credentials were identical if not better than past jasper police chiefs. comments on the facebook page contain racial slurs. >> from day one to the day he was fired, he's had a target on his back. >> reporter: for those against pearson, the only way to get rid of him was to get rid of the four black city council members who voted to hire him, a group of all white residents calling themselves concerned citizens launched a petition drive, accusing them of misconduct. >> were you incompetent? >> we make a positive decision for the city of jasper and find ourself recalled. >> how far apart are people? >> i think we're probably back at that same stage that we were at during the james bird time. >> so that rift is back? >> absolutely. the town is divided. >> deb is with me. i know since you literally filed that story moments ago, you've learned something new. what is it? >> reporter: erin, as we were on this story for out frovnt, we learned the city's insurance carrier actually canceled coverage for its public officials, that's liability coverage for things like discrimination issues, civil rights matters. there's expected to be a meeth. right now all those public officials come september 1 have no personal coverage, erin. >> that's incredible. what is the mood in the town, just in general people's reaction to this? >> reporter: you know, it is so interesting, because so many people that we speak to, black and white said they were so up good friends with the mayor, they went for coffee with him, went on his airplane, they had a drink with him all the time. the black council members said they were very close to him. there's a deep sense of betrayal, why this happened, why the move seems to be coming out of the ray station. a real fear of retaliation. some people saying forget it, we don't want to be in this piece, too much at stake, we have kids, grandkids. there's a real sense. even the police chief's wife, she was fired just three weeks ago without cause, and when asked her employer, the reason they would give her, it was because of low morale in the office. nothing pertaining to her record. "outfront," chairman buck mckeon says why huge lay-offs paid by a defense contractor aren't part of politics. seven wild