tans movement. an indonesian man accused in making the bombs in the 2002 bali attacks is set to make a plea this monday. he could be handed a death sentence if convicted. 2002 people were killed in the bali bombings. at least 44 min mates are dead after a prison riot in new mexico. rival gangs were fighting in the prison and at one point inmates took a guard hostage. australian prime minister julia laggard says she will survive the office. australian media report the former prime minister says a leadership challenge is, quote, not in the prospect. those are the headlines from cnn, the world's news leader. i'm zain verjee and "world business today" starts right now. good morning from cnn london. i'm charles hodson. a very good afternoon from cnn hong kong. i'm andrew stevens. today's trade deficit hits a record level. what's behind these numbers? natural disasters for one. europe's finance ministers hope to settle difference this is monday as they meet once again to try to fend off what could be the eurozone's first sovereign default. and iran stopped selling britain to britain and france as a team of inspectors arrive in tehran for talks about the country's nuclear program. natural disasters have taken a toll on the economies of two asian countries. we'll start with thailand here. you'll see the thai economy in the fourth quarter of the year contracted by a whopping 10.7% compared with the previous quarter. that's due to the country's worst flooding, you'll remember, in decades. let's take a look at what it means for the whole year. the government figures show the economy grew just .10%. if you take a look at that, thailand is expected to grow between 5.5% and 6.5% thanks to increased domestic demand and a recovery in industrial production. but there is a much bigger concern on the horizon. we're talking about japan, the world's third biggest economy. japan has just posted a record trade deficit, a monthly trade deficit, $19 billion. that was much worse than anal t analysts expected. the ministry of finance says exports were down 9.3% in january compared with the year earlier. the main reason was the continued strength of the yen which slammed japanese exports to the u.s. and europe. while exports were falling, imports were jumping by nearly 9.8%, mostly in the form of oil and gas to compensate for the loss of nuclear power in the wake of fukushima daiichi nuclear disasters. the yen weakened but is gaining once again. over the past 12 months or so, the yen up 8% against the euro and nearly 4.5% against the u.s. dollar. these are coming from a strong base, too. so the yen gets ever stronger which makes it ever less competitive for the japanese exporters. the yen is also becoming a strong deterrent for foreign companies operating in japan. for the second consecutive year for wren direct investment showed a net out flow as more overseas companies pulled out of japan. the 2.3 billion outflow is the second highest since records began back in 1985. let's put all this in perspective now. cunning lao joins us from tokyo. when you look at these numbers coming out over the past 24 hours or so, kyung, what's it telling us about the state of the japanese economy? >> reporter: we have to let the numbers speak for themselves. these aren't just bad numbers, but historically bad. if you look at trade deficit and foreign investment, the news is simply bad across the board. let's talk about that trade deficit for one minute. that record trade deficit in january, that's worse than the deficit this country saw in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. so the press sures on japan right now are historic. you look at the strength of the yen. you look at the aging crisis, the demographic time bomb as is referred to here. then you look at all the other factors internally. you have the tsunami rebuilding that has to be done. you the crisis at the fukushima nuclear plant. then you have the highest debt-to-gdp ratio on top of that. this country has a number of issues ahead of it. there is an internal discussion about trying to raise the consumption tax. there was just a poll out that showed half the people are opposed to that. really there is a very tough road ahead for this economy, and there are a number of alarm bells really being set off in many economists' minds about what this country is going to do. >> one of the issues you tauchd on there, kyung, one of the reasons for the high trade deficit is the fact that japan had to import a lot of oil and gas to cover for the loss of power from the nuclear disaster. what is japan doing about covering that loss? does it have a policy in place? >> it doesn't have a policy in place. that's really what we're hearing from corporate leaders. where is the energy policy? where is the guidance from the prime minister's office and the top lawmakers in this country. without a significant energy policy, without reassurance to corporate leaders, what we're hearing from corporate japan is that outsourcing of jobs is going to continue, pushing productivity outside of japan is going to continue, the investment outside of this country. that's going to translate into banging this economy down even further. the concern is that tonight another reactor is going to go out of service. that means there will only be two nuclear reactors operating in this country tomorrow, a country that formerly had 50 reactors going, 30% of their power from nuclear energy. there's a void in place that has to be filled. right now they are looking at a significant energy crisis this summer without any nuclear policy in place. >> kyung lah joining us live from tokyo. charles? let's have a look at stock markets now, andrew. obviously over an hour, hour an eight minutes into the new trading week in europe, investors keeping a close eye on the situation in greece. eurozone finance ministers, the euro group meeting today and will decide whether greece will receive its second bailout. we'll cover that in a lot of detail. meanwhile that seems to be creating a fairly optimistic mood. all these markets are up by about .75% in the case of the xetra dax. the euro a bit stronger, a shade below 1.32 to the u.s. dollar. i was noticing this matches my tie beautifully. i'll have to lay off the red ties unless you want a shortened market, unless you do, andrew. >> these condense boosting measures very, very important. i'll keep to the fairly youthful -- whatever this color is. let's take a look at the numbers here, charles. you talked about a lot more optimism at the start of the asian trading day than the end of the trading day. hang seng, hong kong market, you'll see it got off off the blocks, it did fade finishing down about .3%. the initial opt anymore coming from the move from the chinese authorities to cut the reserve requirement ratio, basically allowing the chinese banks to lend about $63 billion collectively more to borrowers in china trying to get the economy moving a little bit quickly, more quickly. that initially gave a boost both to hong kong and to hang high. in fact, right around the region, the companies exposed to china exports getting a boost in japan, australia getting a boost because the miners got a boost there. as the day wore on, the concerns about what this actually means, because the authorities are having to cut these reserve ratios, what duds that say about the state of the chinese economy? analysts in hong kong, charles, are saying we've got more cuts ahead. the economy is perhaps slowing a little more quickly than authorities would like. that sent a bit of a chill through the markets toward the end of the session. >> interesting there are always two sides to any piece of news like that. speaking of any piece of news, here is a piece of news. we've looked at all sides it seems several times. it's crunch time for greece again. eurozone finance ministers will decide about five hours from now to decide whether greece has done enough to qualify for a second bailout and avoid defaulting on a bond payment due next month. as part of the deal, european finance ministers are insisting that the greek government sets up an escrow account which would have enough cash set aside to cover up to 12 months' of debt. essentially 12 months' warning if they were running into trouble and we were looking at a default. the greek government could have to take 20 additional steps before the end of the month, mostly on things that it hasn't quite followed up on. the greek government has brought in plenty of very, very unpopular austerity measures though. we saw demonstrations last night yet again, the measures people are protesting against include pay cuts, lay-offs, pension reforms. on the other side, private sector bondholders are expected to agree to voluntary write-downs up to 70%, reduce the value of their holdings by some 70%. there are some sweeteners involved. we can get into that later on. the threat of yet more cuts elicited, as i mentioned, what is a familiar scene in athens with thousands of protesters marching through the center of the greek capitol opposing pension cuts. another big day for greece and the whole of the eurozone. joining me to look at what the future might hold is the co-head of economic research at deutsche bank. good morning, gill. are you sure we'll have an agreement when the finance ministers meet today. >> it's very fluid, but it seems that, yes, we'll have an agreement in principle. probably what is more important is we'll probably get a deal on all the legs of the package. as you know last week there were talks about splitting the package in two, starting with the money that was earmarked to fund the psi and maybe wait until the elections in april to agree on the leg of loan package earmarked fund, the remaining redeficit. it seems we're moving the a comprehensive deal which is probably what the markets really want to hear. >> of course it's what the markets want to hear, i note the eu's word earlier, fluid. even though it's less probable than a positive outcome, what would you see the implications of a negative outcome if there simply were not a deal today in brussels? >> it's just that we're running out of time basically. as you noticed, we have this massive bond redemption coming due on the 20th of march, 14 billion euros. the way to deal with this redemption is basically to agree on the psi. that bond redemption would be actually contained in the psi. if we don't get there, we'll have to find some further shortened fixes, and honestly i think everyone is running out of creativity there. so probably further t bill issuance subscribed by greek banks and repoed at the ecb. this would give a sense -- a completed sense of resolution. we're already late. the market was expecting resolution last wednesday. we're already four to five days late. anymore delay would probably be quite, quite negative. it seems -- >> gilles, let me press you on one point. let's see we have a deal today, as set out. are you kwon fi dent as an economist that greece can deliver on this. it seems what's being contemplated in the longer term is a complete transformation of the greek company xhooe from one based on the public sector and borrowing in order to keep that public sector going to one that will have to be driven by its private sector and tax receipts. can greece really deliver on that? >> there's the most important thing, of course. one thing i would like to say. contrary to something very popular right now, the program that is proposed to greece is not undoable, it's not science fiction there. what greece has been asked to deliver is 4.5%. this is the kind of primary surplus that countries such as belgium or italy managed to deliver in the 1990s. same thing in terms of relief on debt. yes, even after psi, greece will keep a very high debt-to-gdp ratio. the benefit is much more than belgium had to cope with. yes, it's possible. >> we have to leave it there unfortunately. than thank you very much indeed. gilles moec joining us live. plenty more ahead including feeling the pressure. iran is lashing out against pressure. we'll look at how much of the country's oil may be going know where next. ew. seriously? so gross. ew. seriously? that is so gross. ew. seriously? dude that is so totally gross. so gross...i know. there's an easier way to save. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. let's check in on very active energy markets right now. brent crude up slightly trading just over $120 a barrel, up b three-quarters of a dollar. obviously that is two things really, supply concerns -- the debt drama with greece and above all the iranian oil sanctions. welcome back. you're watching "world business today" live on cnn. it does make you wonder, doesn't it, charles, when the oil price starts eating into the global economic out put, price of $120 hurts a lot of economic activity. iran appears to be in an increasingly tight spot as the oil sanctions begin to bite. the european union marked july 1st as the day it will stop importing iranian oil. on sunday, tehran retaliated saying it had suspended oil sales to britain and france effective immediately. that means iran is left without a buyer for nearly a quarter of its annual crude exports. the first half of last year, eu countries accounted for 18% of iran's oil exports. that's about 450,000 barrels a day. charles? >> a team from the international atomic energy agency is in iran to assess the country's nuclear development which is ultimately what sparked international sanctions on its oil. for more on that we're joined by matthew chance here in the london studio. what seemed to be the implications, have been the implications for iran and ordinary iranians as well for what's going on here? >> i think for ordinary iranians it's having a big impact. there are already complaints that there are shortages in the country, they're feeling the economic pinch of the tough economic restrictions put on the country. if you take all these developments as a whole, the cutoff of fuel supplies to british and french companies which isn't in itself going to affect britain and france or even iran. the other development is iran has suggested it will expand its uranium enrichment activities as one of its nuclear firlts. in itself doesn't add up to much. clearly what the iranians are saying they're prepared to go forward despite concerns in the west that it may have a military dimension, which they deny, and despite the tight sanctions against its people. >> seems to be leading us to -- we're already in a state of economic war, but shooting war potentially as well, at least if the diplomatic rhetoric is to be believed. >> it's certainly a concern, charles. that's what's the conversation is anti, particularly in israel, should they transcribing against the nuclear facilities or not. what we're also seeing is these international sanctions are an attempt by the international community, led the united states and others, to persuade israel it doesn't need to attack iran's nuclear facilities. that's the hope amongst a lot of people monitoring the situation. the other situation is that it's not altogether clear that iran would use its nuclear capabilities for military means. that's something that's now trying to be discovered by the iaea, the international watch dog. >> that's the crucial thing, isn't it, matthew? in a way, if the iranians are right and they can prove they're right saying there is no military dimension to this nuclear program, then we're all off the hook, including the iranians. >> probably they'll find it very difficult to prove they've never undertaken any. i think what they're trying to do is create some space for negotiations so conflict can be avoided. if the world can live with a nuclear-capable iran, that might be a way out of the crisis. >> matthew chance joining me live in london. many thanks. andrew? still ahead on "world business today," a sea of red banners filled the streets of spain as protesters voice their anger at new laws they say make it easier for companies to slash jobs and add to already soaring unemployment. al gooden was there. we'll bring you his report in just a moment. @ what makes the sleep number store different? you walk into a conventional mattress store, it's really not about you. they say, "well, if you want a firm bed you can lie on one of those, if you want a soft bed you can lie on one of those." we provide the exact individualization that your body needs. welcome to the ultimate sleep number event. not just ordinary beds on sale, but the bed that can change your life on sale. the sleep number bed. this is your body there. you can see a little more pressure in the hips. now you can feel what happens as we raise your sleep number setting and allow the bed to contour to your individual shape. wow! that feels really good. it's not about soft or firm. it's about support where you find it most comfortable. right now, queen mattresses start at just $599. and save 50% on the final closeout of our innovative limited edition bed. plus, through monday only, get a free dual comforter-and enjoy 18-month financing on selected bed sets. you can adjust it however you want so you don't have to worry about buying the wrong mattress. hurry this week to the ultimate sleep number event. only at the sleep number store. welcome back to "world business today" live on cnn. let's get a check of your business forecast. pedram joins us from the international weather center. >> talking about what's been talking about asia. not long have we gone the winter season talking about clear skies over china, at least in parts. you take a look, fairly clear across the southern region with the exception of a few thunderstorms across northern china, a weak disturbance cruising on along chang dong. this is video coming out of areas within shandong province. again, some of the highest accumulations we've seen in quite some time. not sure if we have the video for you. regardless, that has all moved off this region and the temperature is going to gradually warm up. no significant travel issues, whether it be hong kong, shanghai or beijing. the major cities look pretty good. in europe, we have a weak disturbance in and around portions of milan. in frankfurt there was some delays associated with industrial reasons, not weather related at this hour. take a look at this. we find the linear feature, a cold front beginning to come in from the northwest. with it rain showers, a few flurries possible in the higher elevations of scotland. take you to north ireland. we do know some strong thunderstorms in the morning hours have caused a few problems out there. generally speaking everything beginning to fall apart t. showers work their way to the south. it's the middle portion of the week. that's where we'll see the biggest concerns over europe wednesday and thursday with travel delays. down to six below in the early morning hours and has warmed up to minus one. we'll have more "world business today" coming up next. andrew stevens. >> and i'm charles hodson at cnn london. welcome back to "world business today." let's have a look at european stock markets, 91 minutes into the trading day, a positive start, quite strongly positive really, up by more than 1% for the dax and the paris cac currant. i think the policy easing we saw in china is having a positive effect on global markets. note though we have the u.s. markets closed for a holiday, so not too much really to be read to what goes in on european markets under those kind of circumstances, andrew. >> absolutely, charles. pretty much the same story here. obviously there is some optimism, overall optimism that greece will get the requisite signatures to get the bailout and we can take one step -- no matter how small, but one step ahead on the eurozone crisis, but also china cutting those reserve requir