group of smart people and break down the big stories in our own way. today, we're asking, with ron desantis and nikki haley both making a lot of news is, either of them now a serious threat to donald trump? plus, hunter biden's strategy shift, getting aggressive with house republicans, did he outsmart the gop. and the aarp, our panel, yea or nay, from rocking on nur 80s. everyone is here and ready, so sit back, relax, and let's talk about it. up first, crunch time in the republican presidential race. the iowa caucuses are now just six weeks away, which means the clock is ticking, for top challengers to donald trump, to start gaining ground, and find some way to cut into his big league. and two of those candidates are making some noise. >> the next president of the united states, nikki haley! >> first, nikki haley, the super pack, americans for prosperity action, announced it is backing her, bringing massive resources to her campaign. >> they like my economic plans and my plans for the future of america. >> and j.p. morgan ceo jamie dimon said, he's encouraging business leaders to support haley. >> we've got one more fella to catch up to and the momentum is growing. >> then there is ron desantis who went head-to-head with california governor gavin newsom, in a made for tv debate. >> what biden and harris and newsom want to do is take the california model and do that nationally. this country must choose freedom over failure. >> you're trolling folks so you can outtrump trump. and by the way, how is that going for you, ron? you're 41 points in your own home state. >> newsom has a point. recent polls in the early contests show trump still with a big lead. he's up 27 in iowa. ahead, 22 in new hampshire. and in haley's home state of south carolina, trump leads by 35 points. with me around the table, podcaster, kariya swisher, reihan salam, president of the manhattan institute, and national review contributing editor, "new york times" journalist and podcast host lulu garcia-navarro, and author and pollster kristen solas-anderson. lulu, let me start you with. back to the faceoff. did desantis help or hurt himself in that debate on thursday night? >> he helped himself. no question about that. i think he only had to go up, and i think gavin newsom was a disappointment, and i don't think -- he seemed a little smarmy, a little smug and they were basically gacking up on gach newsom, it was two on one, i don't think it was a fair debate. >> meaning the moderator. >> all of the conversations. fair and balanced. and all of the facts that they showed, i mean these were facts that were very carefully selected to show california in its worst light. i am actually a native floridian, and i can tell you that there was a lot to say about florida that was not said there. >> i don't do that at all. i have to say. i thought desantis did terribly. especially that last line about neither of us is running in 2024. it encapsulated, and did the damage that needed to be done, that trump, quote, you know, you're way behind in your own state. neither of us is running in 2024. pointing out his lack of charm and i get the smarmy part, but desantis is the opposite, which is the opposite, no charm whatsoever. he is charmless. >> let's hear from a conservative, kristen, did desantis help himself, at least to the extent that by debating a democrat, instead of other republicans, he was able to show that he's a true conservative? >> what i think it probably showed was this is why i should have run four years from now. he has not shown at this point that he has what it takes to take out donald trump, and that's the elephant in the room. that's what is driving the republican primary. so he can have a good debate and get some zingers in against gavin newsom but the entire debate was in an ultimate dimension where donald trump doesn't exist and in this dimension where we live, donald trump does very much exist, so whether it is gavin newsom, or ron desantis, both of them are people who clearly have political futures in front of them, but it seems to me, that ron desantis, even if he did well in a debate like this, it is still a side show and still where i don't know that he set himself up effectively for four years from now. >> reihan, let's move on to the other person having a good week this week, nikki haley, she got support from the kochs on the right and jamie dimon ott left, and is she, and i know a lot of people want to see a competition on the republican side, is she becoming the serious threat to donald trump? >> i believe she has an enormous opportunity. the reason she has an enormous opportunity is how the new hampshire primary works. the new hampshire primary is an open primary. if you are not affiliated with the democratic party, you can vote in that primary. and when you look at 012, and 2016, those were two races where you had a huge number, over 40% of the folks who took part in those republican primaries, were independents and nikki haley has a huge opportunity there, to actually win in new hampshire. and that would blow up the narrative about donald trump's inevitability. >> kara -- >> okay, sure. >> i don't know what planet you're living on. >> do you take nikki seriously? >> i think she is a very good candidate for another time and donald trump exists, and unless they're marching to san quentin, i guess, i think he is the nominee. >> here is the way this could play out. if we're entertaining the notion that this is possible, i have to think back to the 2000 campaign, right? you have the big bush juggernaut, wins at iowa, then goes to new hampshire, and because of exactly what reihan said, in new hampshire, and independents get to participate, back in 2000, that's where mccain suddenly surprises everybody, could nikki haley surprise in new hampshire? she could, but for one thing. the existence of chris christie. he's currently polling in about one out of six or so new hampshire voters. and that's just enough where i'm very confident that nikki haley voters -- >> let me bring up another part of the scenario. i remember 2000, and yes mccain had a great new hampshire and then he went to south carolina and bush clobbered him in south carolina and that was basically the end of it. and i understand nikki haley, it is her home state, but as i said in the piece earlier, she is trailing trump now by 35, she is further behind trump there than she is in iowa or new hampshire. >> she has the electability argument. if you look at ron desantis, it is very hard for him to make the case that he is more electable than donald trump in a general election. donald trump is polling better against joe biden than he's ever done, including back in 2020, better than hillary clinton back in 2016. he's polling very, very well. but nikki haley actually blows trump out of the water. nikki haley would cause a massive crisis among democrats. and i believe that there are republican primary voters who want a winner. and they want to win big and i think that's a pitch you can make. >> have -- are you suggesting that some of the republican candidates should cede the ground to nikki haley? i think that is the thing that could happen. i think chris christie has no chance to win. i think at this point ron desantis has no chance to win. >> but they don't think that. >> well, i mean they must know that by now. i mean they must know that by now. >> certainly desantis is not going to get out before iowa. he has been here a long time. and i want to bring up another element to this stew that we've got here and that is donald trump. he has something very interesting to say this week. i want to put it up on the screen. just out of the blue, he said, i don't want to terminate obama care, i want to replace it with much better health care, obama care sucks, and yes, all of the exclamation points and the capitals for those of the author. >> does it make any sense for donald trump to re-fight the obama care battle? >> it does, because christmas, he wants to give a gift to the christmas. >> it is christmas and he wanted to give a gift to the democrats and that's what he wanted. >> it literally doesn't matter. he is the nominee. and literally, unless he falls and breaks a hip. maybe he will fall and break a hip. >> i'm not discrediting the fact, but with things like this, this is the problem with donald trump, he is donald trump, he is always trying to fight the last battle. this is 2017, when he was defeated in congress, and mccain gave him the thumbs down famously and trying to bring it back for reasons that are inexplicable because -- >> and getting him to mock this off, i would say we are coming out of thanksgiving, we're in a mode where we're reheating leftovers, and this is the re-heated leftovers of the republican party you blew up, donald trump, and repeal and replace, that pro-dates him. do not go back there. >> you are saying that you think it is a sure lover. >> at least in the general election context. i think health care is a relatively low priority for voters relative to economy, immigration, crime, but those are also the, the economy, i immigration, crime, republicans are doing well, only abortion is doing worse for republicans in terms of issues this. rhetoric will not help. >> his unique talent is the ability to discard statements like this. by the time of the general election, we will run, as an absolute centrist and run on tariffs and a different set of issues and it will work. >> look at abortion. the guy who put three people in to overturn roe v. wade doesn't want to come within a mile of abortion. we'll see. as the fight for the white house plays out, congress' intense talks to aid to israel, aid to ukraine and border security is, there a deal to be made? then, hunter boyden on the offensive? -- hunter biden on the offensive, will his gambit pay off or hurt his dad's chance force a seconds term. and we have a look at the big christmas tree. and tell me why i'm wrong. the war in israel is about to enter its third month, and while there were scenes of joy this week, as dozens of hostages returned home from gaza, the temporary truces that made those moments happen are not being replicated here in washington. lawmakers are battling over aid to israel. just as israeli leaders warn this war is far from over. >> there is no situation in which we don't return to fighting. >> a vow from israel's prime minister to keep fighting. as a different fight brews in washington. >> poison pills should have no part in aiding ukraine or sifting israel. >> democrat wants israel aid tied to support for ukraine as part of a broader deal. >> aid to israel. aid to ukraine. humanitarian assistance to help victims in gaza and also the indo china. >> republicans counter the only way to back more money for ukraine is in turn for tougher security measures in our southern boarder. >> unless there is meaningful reform that secures our border, we're a hell no. >> a bipartisan group of senators is working on a compromise. >> nobody gets exactly what they want, so i'll have my base mad at me, they will have their base mad at them. >> some senate democrats say republican demand for securing the board remember going too far. >> i want to be very, very careful because there are people whose lives are at stake here. >> so, reihan, should aid to ukraine and israel be tied to tougher border enforcement measures that the republicans are demanding? >> i think there is a re coherent connection here, which is if you believe, as conservatives do, that you can't have a country without a border, you have ukraine trying to defend their borders and america defending their borders and there is a direct connection here and with regard to israel, we're trying to get this right and trying to bring it together and we're trying to give joe biden a win, it is a huge opportunity for the president to take an issue that is a massive political vulnerability for him, off the table. >> lulu, you know, it was joe biden in his original proposal who linked together aid to israel, aid to ukraine, and more money for enforcement of the the border, so why are democrats squealing now at the idea that republicans are going to try to get everything they can on the border? >> because they're two separate issues. i don't see that there is a connection there. and neither does anybody else. the very idea that aid to ukraine is linked to something that is happening on our southern border are two very, very separate things. the reason the democrats initially did it is because they wanted to give something to the republicans, because it is proper for the democrats, because the democrats do want to secure the southern border despite what republicans say. however, these two issues are very, very separate and the things that republicans are demanding are way too much. you know, the fact that allowing the dreamers to be thrown off the bus here, to, you know, all of these different ideas that the republicans, you know, it is not linked to the ukraine -- >> joe biden is making a terrible amazing. he literally has an opportunity for a major win that could demonstrate to a lot of voters, a lot of voters in swing states in the midwest who do not trust him, a lot of voters in cities like chicago and new york city that are being overwhelmed because of mismanagement in the crisis at the border. he can say to them, i care, this matters, just as much to me as these geopolitical crises burning elsewhere and think that is something that he badly needs and he is about to -- >> i want to jump into this. the bargaining here is fascinating. it was the democrats who said, all right, you're going to get border money, with israel and ukraine which a lot don't support, and then when the republicans said, okay, well, you know, we want tough border enforcement, democrats want more than the democrats were offering, they said no, no, no that's for the dreamers, and republicans saying, no, no, you're getting that for ukraine. it is a different deal now. >> everything in washington always gets entangled with one another, because congress is so dysfunctional, and it is hard to move anything through. and so as soon as any piece of legislation starts to move, everybody starts to try to hang ornaments ton like a christmas tree. >> should they drop dreamers and return to ukraine. >> i think it is separately and it boggles the mind, these three things which are popular independently, significant majorities of americans want us to support ukraine, significant majorities of americans want us to support israel and a significant majority of americans want us to support the border. it boggles the mind to me that someone describing this as a poison pill, and there is nothing here that is politically poisonous. >> so why not lump them together and get it done? >> i agree. >> it is a gimme. this is a washington two-step. and even though it makes no sense, just do it. because it will get, you're right, it will help biden -- >> we're forgetting, kara, the democrats, or the republicans are saying, look, the deal in effect is aid for ukraine, for tougher border enforcement, and now -- >> yes, i get it. >> the democrats are saying no, we want the dreamers. >> maybe they will get that. >> it would be nice to get that. >> we'll see. right? they're still negotiating. everyone needs a win here in some fashion. but one thing that is clear is they've got to get aid to ukraine and they got to get aid to israel and it is not by any means necessary, but they're going to have to deal. >> we're talking about the conditions that republicans are asking for, but what about the conditions that some progressive democrats are asking for. they're asking for conditions to be placed on aid to israel, that are all about restraining israel in its ability to defend itself. that is really dangerous conditionalitiy. >> human rights? >> you will legislate human rights in a u.s. appropriations bill as opposed to saying support our allies? >> every single other country that receives military aid from the united states has to abide by a, you know, a legislation that looks at their human rights impact, and the human rights legacy of that country, and so israel has been exempt from that, from that for the entire time that all the aid has been given to them, but i have to say that there is a lot of questions being asked at this particular moment, when you see the amount of devastation of people being killed inside gaza -- >> there are questions -- >> the merits of it, i think that's a bridge too far, there is no way to get it lumped into this bill. i want to get back to the politics of this, that rihan had mentioned, kristen and what is the fact that the border is a big problem for joe biden. and there's a lot of question should he take -- i want to put up some numbers. encounters at the border in the last fiscal year were up 100% over 2019. as migrants flooded the northern cities. a poll this month found 54% of democrats are very, or extremely concerned about border security. and so i understand, kristen, that left wing democrats are not going to like it, but in fact, wouldn't tougher border enforcement, in effect a crackdown is what the republicans are asking for, with the asylum and parole, would not benefit joe biden in his election campaign. >> it would absolutely take -- well, assuming this works and you actually began to see things becoming more manageable at the border, for sure, and i mean he ran four years ago on an argument, i am going to be bipartisan, i am going to try to pick wins if i can find them and any time you talk about infrastructure et cetera, here is an example of an issue that is high priority for a lot of voters. you look at the gait, the encounters at the border have not gone down like october, november, as they normally drop, it has not been. this is a crisis worthy of bipartisan action and joe biden should absolutely take the win on this. >> i was going to ask, kara, should the white house declare victory here and say okay -- >> yes. >> aid for israel. aid for ukraine. and yes, you can help us do things -- >> yes. >> something is going to happen. that is absolutely going to happen. i think the rest is all performative noise. >> lulu, are you okay with a crackdown at the border which is tough for some democrats, especially in the left wing, to swallow but might help joe biden in november of -- >> i think the way we're discussing this is how it is going to help joe biden or help joe biden and help the democrats and ultimately, what is being proposed at the border, the border, i've been there many times, it is a very complicated place and the fact of the matter i think what is being discussed will not help, and it is comprehensive immigration reform which the republicans have refused to do up until now. >> going back 20 years. >> yes. >> to be discussed further. biden on capitol hill isn't too surprised, with this in, the president's son, hunter, this week, offering to testify on the house gop investigation into his father. there's a "but" at the end of that sentence which makes all of the difference. we'll talk about it next. first time i connected with kim, she told me that her husband had passed. and that he took care of all of the internet connected devices in the home. i told her, “i'm here to take care of you.” connecting with kim... made me reconnect with my mom. it's very important to keep loved ones close. we know that creating memories with loved ones brings so much joy to your life. a family trip to the team usa training facility. i don't know how to thank you. i'm here to thank you. sometimes the best defense is a good offense. the president's embattled son hunter biden picking on house republicans this week, agreeing to testify in their impeachment inquiry, but only if it is in public. house republicans quick to reject the offer. calling for hunter to testi