we have new polling on what that message might do with a key bloc of voters. plus, what a raging wildfire in california is warning us about this summer's fire season. and two days after the supreme court rules to make it easier to rapidly fire a gun, a man shoots nearly 30 rounds at families using a community splash pad for kids. nine injured, including children. some seriously. an 8-year-old boy who has a gunshot wound to the head. he's in critical condition. >> those stories in a moment. first, let's begin with politics. the new more aggressive strategy from team biden to go after donald trump as a convicted felon. the new $50 million ad campaign is going up in battleground states, framing the election as a choice between a convicted criminal, that's in a quote, and a president who is, quote, fighting for your family. it was juiced over the weekend as george clooney, julia roberts, jimmy kimmel and former president obama laid out the stakes for november. >> the next president is likely to have two new supreme court nominees, two more. he's already appointed two that have been very negative in terms of the rights of individuals. the idea that if he's reelected he's going to appoint two more flying flags upside down -- >> i really mean it. >> could this be the scariest part of all of it? >> i think it is one of the scariest parts. look, the supreme court has never been as out of kilter as it is today. >> nbc's mike memoli is reporting from washington, d.c., and jennifer palmieri, former white house communications director under president obama, former communications director for hillary for america and cohost of msnbc's "how to win 2024" podcast, and doug hie, communications director and strategist. why did the campaign team decide on this message for this moment? >> reporter: well, katy, four years ago, the biden campaign became the first presidential campaign to raise a billion dollars. this time around in part with $30 million from the fundraiser i was at in los angeles over the weekend and another 28 million they raised at that three presidents fundraiser in march, they're on path to surpass that. what can you do with that much money in this race? you put your foot on the gas. that's what the campaign is doing with the $50 million ad spending blitz flout the month of june. this will be in all battleground states. it will be specific resources targeting specific voter groups, and the message now is a significant one as we talk about the weeks following donald trump's criminal conviction. for some time, we have seen the biden team try to set up this race as a contrast between two men, one looking after himself and one after the american people. the conviction is really giving them a new hill on which to put this message. let's listen to the new ad. >> in the courtroom, we see donald trump for who he is. he's been convicted of 34 felonies, found liable for sexual assault. and he committed financial fraud. meanwhile, joe biden's been working. lowering health care costs and making big corporations pay their fair share. this election is between a convicted criminal who's only out for himself and a president who's fighting for your family. >> i'm joe biden and i approve this message. >> there were questions about whether when hunter biden was convicted in his own trial, that that would deter the biden campaign from using in message. that was not the case. i was traveling late last week with first lady jill biden. i had a chance to speak with her exclusive about her trial and what means for the campaign. she says her son has been strong since that verdict and she's taking her lead from him and she was out there making the character message across battleground states as well. >> jen, let's talk about the strategy here. joe biden going after donald trump as a convicted criminal. was this the plan all along? they stayed away from describing him as or getting into the legal problems that donald trump was facing in detail. what's with this new decision to get so aggressive? >> i don't think that they were planning to do it all along. you know, they stayed out of it while -- as president of the united states, stayed out of the legal matter, didn't comment on it, and let it play out. i think everyone is surprised, actually, that it came down to guilty on all counts, and, you know, campaigns still expended $50 million unless they're quite certain that the message is going to resonate with voters. so i'm certain that they've gone through a lot of message testing in the last couple of weeks since the conviction, and found that this is a good marriage of the argument of trump being in it for himself, trump being a felon. there's an economic message. i heard other people say i'm not sure biden should focus on the conviction, he needs to deliver his economic message. that ad is doing it. he talks about lowering drug costs and fighting for you. that is what they think their best shot at approving his standing with voters on the economy is. showing he's the one that's making some progress on your behalf. and trump is only obsessed with himself. >> this ad targeting battleground states is that as effective as it needs to be. it's old media strategy, are you seeing evidence they're getting into the new media ecosphere, where president biden is not polling as well with voters. jen? >> is that for me, katy? >> yeah. >> it's just because we're seeing on television, it doesn't mean it's the only place it's appearing. everything they are doing on television is also part of a digital strategy, too. and, you know, he said he may have more details on that, they believe this appeals to certain voter groups, and they can reach them digitally, and that's always, i mean, we should always assume when you see something on television that that is not the only place it's going to be. and it's going to get sliced up. different versions of it, and you'll see a 30-second version and a 10-second version, and that's how you get to like, actually, penetrate people's memory. >> i'll ask you that, are they going beyond the tv ads and the mailers? >> one of the things the biden team has done when they put out announcements is list specific shows or hours they're going to be airing that. i was noting one of the recent ad buys, they put on during the nba finals. they know the same thing our bosses know about when people are watching and how much people are watching live versus through the dvrs. one thing the biden team has been look for is high profile events, shows that people tend to be watching live or in sports programming is a big part of that. you're also, to jen's point seeing them put out digital messaging as well. when president obama was in los angeles for that fundraiser this weekend, he also spent some time at a meeting set up by the biden campaign with digital creators. there was an opportunity for him to talk to some of those people reaching out on platforms in which maybe the biden campaign or even the president himself is not necessarily somebody suited for those platforms, and so he's talking to them about how to reach audiences with the campaign's message. >> there's a little bit of new polling out there, doug. from "politico," and this is ipsos. and it talks about the reaction from voters who might change their minds about donald trump in the face of the conviction. do you believe trump is guilty in the falsifying business case, brought by the manhattan d.a., 52% say yes. do you believe trump is guilty, yes. how does trump's guilty convict in the manhattan d.a.'s falsifying business case, blah blah blah impact your likelihood to support him. more likely 17%, less likely 33%. so there's a fair share of voters out there that are turned off by this, doug. >> yeah, i've seen separate polling that says the same thing. that tells you exactly why they're going down this route. i think it's a smart one for the biden team to do, given these are the voters he needs to convert. he has record high on approval ratings, and has been listless in the past few weeks and months. this is an opportunity for him. it does get muddied though by the fact that we're going to see sentencing for hunter. it doesn't address the two issues voters are talking about the most. jen mentioned drug prices. it sort of goes into some of that. inflation and costs are the number one issue people are talking about in the country. number two is the border. joe biden has to fix those two things. voters don't like donald trump but also don't like joe biden either. that's a real problem for the incumbent. >> talking about independents, 21% of the innocents say the conviction make them less likely to support donald trump. there's another piece beyond the character matters ad. and this is what president biden talked about on that stage with jimmy kimmel talking about the supreme court. if former president trump were to win again, there would be intense pressure on clarence thomas and samuel alito to step down while a conservative president or republican president has office. that's especially if there's a republican majority in the senate, and there's an easy path to nomination and to appointment of these supreme court justices. do you see the fate of the supreme court, potentially for decades to come as a turn on or turn off for conservative voters. >> the courts have been a big issue for conservatives for a long, long time. it really wasn't a priority for democrats until we had the dobbs decision. obviously we have seen a real uptick in democratic voter mobilization and motivation, which is part of why they have done well in the midterms. but it's still, i think at this point, unless we see at the ballot box, it's sort of a wait and see move, this is more important for republicans, the issue of the courts, than it is for democrats. abortion becomes a separate but related matter. >> let me ask you this if the court is leading in a direction that cleves the republicans in half, the southern baptist convention saying it condemns ivf. there does seem to be a split among republicans on this subject of ivf. is the thought of a more extreme conservative majority because the likelihood of clarence thomas and samuel alito being replaced like for like is higher with the trump administration. does that help cleve party again or knit it back together? >> it's a real problem for the party. it's been a problem for a while. not just because of what we have seen in alabama. you can go state by state, arizona, there's an important senate race. the ads state legislature and the gop, causing problems for republicans within their state, and also causing it nationally. south carolina, another example where republicans are maybe turning off some of their more moderate, if you can see the voters exist, independent voters, suburban women. republicans have work to do. we see legislatures are legislating out loud, and it defines the issue in a state. also on a national level as well. it's a real challenge for republicans. the court could remain a winning issue for them. there is this complication. >> doug hie, general palmeri, mike memoli, thank you so much for starting us off. in 90 seconds, the fast moving wildfire that has forced hundreds to evacuate their homes in los angeles. this fire is moving fast. plus, add splash pads to the list of places americans need to worry about getting shot at. what we know about a shooting at a michigan park and other mass shootings that happened in america over this weekend. >> it's terrifying. i don't know what type of weapon it was. but it was a big long one. and i don't know why it was sitting on the kitchen table and what his intent was to do with it after he had just left the splash pad. the kids are playing across the street yesterday. all the kids were out here playing. the kids were out here playing. deep down, i knew something was wrong. since my fatigue and light-headedness would come and go, i figured it wasn't a big deal. then i saw my doctor and found out i have afib, and that means there's about a 5 times greater risk of stroke. symptoms like irregular heartbeat, heart racing, chest pain, shortness of breath, fatigue, or light- headedness can come and go. but if you have afib, the risk of stroke is always there. if you have one or more symptoms, get checked out. holding off on seeing a doctor won't change whether or not you have afib. but if you do, making that appointment can help you get ahead of stroke risk. contact a doctor and learn more at notimetowait.com why didn't we do this last year? before you were preventing migraine with qulipta®? and look at me now. you'll never truly forget migraine, but zero-migraine days are possible. don't take if allergic to qulipta®. most common side effects are nausea, constipation, and sleepiness. qulipta®. the forget-you-get migraine medicine™. . right now, firefighters in california are struggling to contain a wildfire outside of los angeles. officials say the post fire has already consumed 14,000 acres and forced hundreds of evacuations. the fight to contain it made harder by wind gusts of over 55 miles per hour. nbc's steve patterson is reporting for us from the ground in castaic, california. steve, what's it like out there? >> i'm no climatologist. to have a fire that is close to 16,000 acres on june 17th seems to be a bad sign for the coming season. what basically has happened is we have had this massive -- years of this massive drought followed by record rainfall, which means a lot of vegetation that normally wouldn't be there is now there. the sun comes like it is right now, destroys all the moisture in the crops, and sort of the weeds that we have growing, which means it's a runway of dry brush. that is exactly what has happened on this fire. it is quickly incinerated, again, nearly 16,000 acres of this stuff, and come very close to population centers. it is now dangerously close to interstate 5. thankfully, firefighters managing to push that back. not before it damaged or destroyed three structures. it injured three people, incinerated cars. the destruction that this fire has wrought in a very short amount of time. the hope is this is a one off. many are seeing this as an arbiter of what's to come. there's a fire in sonoma, a fire nearby here in lancaster. they are dangerous, they're fast moving, and again, i can't say this enough, it's early on in the season. the good news here is containment has jumped from 2% to 8th. anytime you have progress in a fire like this, it's a good sign and by all accounts, they're pushing this away from population centers and into the forest, into a nearby lake. these are all good things. again, with the conditions just right this early on, a fire this big, it's bad news for what could be to come, katy. >> i know that area well. castaic lake, it's a very popular place for weekend boating and stuff. steve patterson, thank you very much. on friday, the conservative majority on the supreme court ruled to reinstate access to bump stocks, the device that allowed the las vegas shooter to use his semiautomatic weapon as if it were automatic, shooting more than 4,000 rounds in eleven minutes, killing 60 people and injuring more than 400 at an outdoor music festival in 2017. two days later, a gunman drove to a splash pad and fired at families playing together on a sunday afternoon. nbc's erin mclaughlin has details. >> a mass shooting at a splash pad in michigan, another at a juneteenth celebration, days after a supreme court ruling that rejects a ban on bump stocks. this morning, friend and families across the country are grieving after multiple mass shootings this weekend. >> multiple victims from an active shooter. deputies aren't on scene yet. >> in rochester hills, michigan, a man opened fire at a splash pad, unleashing 28 rounds. the attack left nine injured including children. some seriously wounded. >> the 8-year-old boy who has a gunshot wound to the head. >> police say the suspect later shot himself and are investigating his motive. >> it was heartbreaking, saddening. devastating. nothing like this has ever happened around this area. >> reporter: while in round rock, texas, police are searching for a shooter who killed two, and injured more than a dozen others at a juneteenth celebration. >> these folks could care less about someone's life, and took someone's life on a day we're here to celebrate community. >> reporter: eight people were injured at a shooting at a pop-up party in massachusetts, with two victims in critical condition. >> here we see again gun violence that's striking at the heart of a community. >> so far this year, there have been 225 mass shootings in the u.s. according to the gun violence archive. the weekend shootings come just days after the supreme court struck down a trump-era ban on bump stocks. the gun accessories used to modify semiautomatic weapons so that they can fire faster. but this morning, many are just searching for answers. >> our hearts go out to the victims and their families. these acts of senseless violence do not represent the values of our community. >> the shootings from over the weekend did not involve bump stocks to our knowledge, but experts say if they did, they could have been so much worse. back to you. >> erin mclaughlin, thank you very much. and still ahead, will strict rules for the presidential debate between joe biden and donald trump help or hurt the candidates? es norman, bad news... i never graduated from med school. what? -but the good news is... xfinity mobile just got even better! now, you can automatically connect to wifi speeds up to a gig on the go. plus, buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. i gotta get this deal... i know... faster wifi and savings? ...i don't want to miss that. that's amazing doc. mobile savings are calling. visit xfinitymobile.com to learn more. doc? speaker mike johnson has made a pilgrimage to mar-a-lago to meet with donald trump. ali vitali joins us from capitol hill to explain what's he doing down will, ali? >> reporter: my understanding of this meeting which might be wrapped or close to it started about an hour ago. this meeting is a continuation of the conversation that the former president started with the full house republican conference just last week when he came back to capitol hill for the first time since the january 6th insurrection that he helped to foment. during that conversation with all republicans here on the house and then later on the senate side, many of our sources and lawmakers in the room likened it to a sort of pep rally, all looking ahead to the november 2024 elections. the goal is to get the majority. on the senate side of that building, that's earning it now from democrats. on the house side of the building, it's keeping it as democrats try in as many districts as they can to take a tight minority that they have right now and flip it into their favor in the majority. you see the house republican campaign arm, richard hudson, part of the meeting with the speaker and the former president, all of it meant to show allegiance, and also uniformity throughout the party with the former president and the likely nominee all ahead of the convention and then of course ahead of november too, katy. >> ali vitali, thank you very much. and muted mics, no props, the rules for the first presidential debate have been announced and there is a hope that they will keep things civil. between donald trump and president biden. it will start with a coin flip to determine where each will stand on stage. the candidates will then have two minutes to answer questions followed by one minute rebuttals. red lights will flash when five seconds are left of their time. then turns solid red when their time is up. before the mic is cut off. doug hie and jen palmieri are back with me. also joining us is nbc's vaughn hillyard. so, vaughn, i was surprised