you have no chance of winning. and he fought. he won 11 states in 1976. i might add just parenthetically, that if we happen to win illinois, that will be the 11th state i've won in this collection. >> though ronald reagan did lose in 1976. but his spokesperson believes in a different outcome in 2012. they put out a memo called santorum path to delegate victory. he's been promising victory for weeks. >> we're in this race and we're in it to stay. we have won in the west, the midwest, and the south. and we're ready to win across this country. we feel very good that we're in a position to still win it right out. and if we have to go to an open convention, we like our chances just as well. we are going to win this nomination before that convention. obviously we're in this to win. we're going to come out with illinois and a huge surprise win. i guarantee you that we will win this nomination. >> here's where it begins to fall apart. governor romney has a 2-1 advantage in delegates so far. and instead suggesting a romney blowout. polls can end up being wrong though. assuming the complete opposite, assuming a santorum landslide which would be a stunning psychological blow to the romney campaign, there is little chance for santorum to gain much ground in the delegate count. that's because of the 54 district level delegates up for grabs tomorrow. to qualify to win 44 of them. so he's already leaving ten delegates on the table about 18% of the total no matter what happens. by our calculations, he'll have to take 70% of the delegates tomorrow and in every single race after tomorrow to get 1,144. in a moment we'll bring in alice stewart from the santorum campaign to make her case. but first john king is at the wall with the numbers. >> let me echo what you said. shortcomings in illinois tomorrow leaving delegates on the table. he didn't make the ballot in virginia. santorum had the same problems in ohio and tennessee. if two months from now we're still having this discussion, they may regret that. senator santorum spent two days in puerto rico. instead romney gets them all. romney's at about 519. he's much closer to the 1144 it takes to win. santorum is in second place well behind romney. illinois is lit up on the map for tomorrow. i'm going to give you a good case in what many would be an over-generous case for santorum going forward. let's jump to the head of the process. if santorum won everything -- won everything, anderson, from here on out, governor romney is getting some along the way. he would not get the nomination. santorum would be in second place. under this scenario, he could say i stopped mitt romney in the last 20 contests. however, you just mentioned the illinois poll. most people think that's not going to happen. hard for most people to see. hard to see him take new jersey. i'm giving him north carolina here. west virginia. indiana. romney campaign people are watching at home saying no way. this is a hypothetical to be generous to santorum. here's a huge one in the west. california. most romney people say we don't have the people to take it. give a few states back to romney. romney clinches in this scenario. that would be enough. and there's still other states the romney campaign thinks it might beat santorum in his home state of pennsylvania. that's an april contest. we'll have that conversation in a few weeks. under this generous scenario, governor romney still clinches. he's still in second place. if i could give him california, look at that. if i gave senator santorum under this scenario. right at the finish line. just a little bit over. so even if senator santorum stuns us in illinois tomorrow, he would have to run the map. currently he's winning 20% of the delegates. he has won 20%. he needs to win 70% to clinch the nomination. he would have to win 60-plus to deny governor romney and go to the convention with an argument. maybe alice wants to play with the math a bit. >> no doubt. i want to bring in alice stewart. thanks for being on the program. you heard john king say he would have to win over 70% of the delegates to clinch the nomination. >> we're optimistic at the way the map will play out for us. i'm not disputing john. he is the champ when it comes to counting the delegates. but we have counters looking at this differently. and the difference now stands at around 124 delegates. also have to factor into the equation there are many bound and unbound delegates out there on the table. typically as you know, those will go to the more conservative candidate. not a moderate like mitt romney. we're also looking at it. john is looking at the numbers from straight on. we're looking at the possibility and the very likely scenario that we're looking at states like florida and arizona. we'll do away with the winner take all strategy of all the delegates going to the winner and do with a proportional allocation of the ballots. also in iowa and missouri we're banking on the fact that they will look at the ongoing contests, not just the initial beauty contest. and with that it narrows the gap between us and romney. has us about 124 behind. while difficult, it's not impossible for somebody to achieve 1144 prior to tampa. >> does that make sense? >> alice is a friend and i respect her opinion. no because you're asking for so many things to happen. in this wacky year we've lived through is it possible? sure. you're asking for the unpledged delegates. many of them are members of congress and the like of that. if they were going to come to senator santorum's way my question would be why haven't they done so already? if he goes into the convention with a lot love momentum, that would change things. they made a huge risk to go down to puerto rico and paid the price for it. polling shows him down 14 points in illinois. if santorum can surprise us in illinois, we can have this conversation. the challenge for santorum or speaker gingrich, they have to start beating governor romney in the places that he is favored like illinois and don't have to just beat him. they have to beat him by a lot to get the delegates. you have to beat him 70-30 or 60-40 to make up the math. is it impossible? no. is it improbable? yes. >> let's talk about the idea of a broker convention. if he ends the delegate hunt in second place, why would he be the party's choice in an open commission? why wouldn't they side with the voters and choose the candidate with the most delegates even though it fell short of the required 1144? >> for the very reason we're here. while mitt romney has more money, name i.d., and longer time in running for president, he is not energizing the base. he is not sealing the deal. we get to a convention as we said and john agrees, more of the grass roots conservative base of the party. they'll be the ones at the convention. and they'll rally behind the conservative candidate. and that's what we expect to happen at the convention. >> the conventional wisdom has been that gingrich and santorum are splitting the conservative vote. if you look at this poll that asked people who they'd vote for if gingrich bowed out, 40% says romney. doesn't that spell trouble for your candidate? if and when gingrich drops out. or if they get to a convention. >> there are a lot of polls along that very line. and many of them show a majority of the gingrich supporters would come to rick. and what we're also seeing is what we're calling for. the conservatives, grass roots of the party to rally behind the candidate in rick santorum. we're not asking by any stretch of the imagination for gingrich to get out. we're asking for conservatives to rally behind rick. certainly we can take mitt romney head on. we're looking for this to be a two-man race which will be sooner rather than later. we will see that rick will energize the base. and he certainly is the person to take on mitt romney. with mitt romney we take the key issues off the table. obama care off the table, wall street bailouts. those are off the table. we can't go head to head with barack obama with the important issues of the day not being able to be discussed. >> john, briefly, the polls in illinois right now. where are things looking? >> right now in illinois you showed the one off the top are m had a 14 point lead. southbou i go through tomorrow after saying let's let the voters vote. advantage romney going in. the short-term calendar, the state of louisiana, that's a battle ground santorum should be able to win. then the map tends to favor romney. the challenge for santorum is to surprise us tomorrow if he's going to have a feasible chance. then when you move on to places like maryland. need a big win in louisiana. needs a huge run in his home state. right now he's won 20% of the delegates so far. what is going to lead us to believe he can get 70% to take it to the convention. that's why we count the votes every tuesday and beyond. >> alice stewart, thanks for being here. stay with us tomorrow night as republican candidates slug it out in illinois. our coverage begins at 7:00 p.m. eastern with "erin burnett outfront." then "anderson cooper 360." the entire team will be back on at 10:00 for another live edition of "ac 360." we're talking a lot on twitter now about the treyvon martin case. the 911 tapes of martin being shot have been released. the teenager shot dead by neighborhood watch captain. do those tapes cast real doubt on the shooter's claims of self-defense? we'll talk to treyvon martin's father and the team next. 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>> yeah. now he's coming towards me. >> okay. >> he's got his hands in his waistband. and he's a black male. something's wrong with him. yep. and he's coming to check me out. he's got something in his hands. i don't know what his deal is. >> okay let me know if he does anything. we've got them on the way. let me know if this guy does anything else. >> okay. these [ bleep ] they always get away. >> well, what treyvon was doing was heading back to where he and his father were staying. his family says he may have been listening to music on his iphone and not aware zimmerman was watching. they claim zimmerman pursued treyvon. >> are you following him? >> yeah. >> okay. we don't need you to do that. >> okay. >> in fact, dispatchers told zimmerman not to even get out of his car. police, they said, were on the way. that advice was for zimmerman's safety and treyvon martins. zimmerman could have stayed where he was, stood his ground and as long as he reasonably believed his life was in danger, he could have shot in self-defense. he followed treyvon martin. then he confronted him. the moment is captured in another 911 call this from a neighbor who hears shouting outside. >> okay is it male or female? >> it sounds like a male. >> and you don't know why? >> i don't know. i think they are yelling help. but i don't know. just send someone quick please. >> does he look hurt to you? >> i can't see him. i don't want to go out there. i don't know what's going on. >> they're coming. so you think he's calling help? >> yes. there's gun shots. >> you just said gun shots? >> yes. >> how many? >> just one. he just said he shot him. yes the person is dead lying on the ground. >> just because he's laying on the ground -- >> oh, my god. >> treyvon martin died of a gun shot wound to his chest. george zimmerman is free until authorities decide what to do. the shoot -- i spoke to martin's father and the attorney. >> i'm sorry for the loss of your son. when you hear these 911 calls, what goes through your mind? what do you think? >> it's heart wrenching because those were my son's last words. and to hear his last words being cries of help is devastating. it tears me apart. >> you have no doubt that's his voice calling for help? >> i'm sure that that's his voice. i'm positive that's his voice. >> police say this man zimmerman had blood on the back of his head, his face. have they said anything to you about how it got there? if it was his blood or your son's blood. have they given you details? >> they told me that it was an altercation. between the two individuals. but the details, they didn't give them to me. >> as you know, the father of zimmerman gave a statement to the orlando sentinel. he said the media reports of the events are imaginary at best. when the true details of the event become public everyone should be outraged by the treatment of george zimmerman in the media. he says your son did not follow your son. but clearly in the 911 calls, the police say are you following him and he says yes. and the police say we don't need you to do that. >> exactly. george zimmerman's father is -- i guess he's being a father trying to protect his son. obviously, he hasn't heard the 911 tapes. and if he did, he must have heard a different version than what the world has heard. >> mr. crump, in your dealings with the police, with the local police, do you think they have investigated this fully? do you think they have taken this seriously? >> i don't. i don't, anderson. i think from day one they didn't. and those 911 tapes tell a big part of the story. but it doesn't tell the whole story. for instance, they get to the scene, treyvon is dead on the ground. and they don't even run a background check on the person who killed him. but number one, if it was treyvon martin who was the trigger man, they would have arrested him day one, hour one on the spot. he would still be in jail right now. >> you have no doubt if it was treyvon martin who had shot a white person that treyvon martin would be in jail. that if it was any african-american who had shot a white person, a suspect would be in jail. >> absolutely. they could say self-defense all they want. they would still be arrested and put in jail. one other point, anderson. and that is if treyvon martin was white, don't you think they would have ran a background check of george zimmerman no matter what he said? >> mr. martin, let me ask you. one of the things when i heard that 911 tape that immediately got my attention is one of the earliest things mr. zimmerman said. he says this guy looks like he's up to no good or on drugs or something. he's a black male. something's wrong with him. he's coming to check me out. so the idea that mr. zimmerman thought there was something suspicious about your son. your son was wearing white sneakers, jeans, and a hoodie which i wear that every single day of my life when i'm not on camera. and i don't think anybody even if they didn't recognize me would have said i look suspicious and i was wearing the exact -- i wear the exact same thing your son was wearing. to you is that just a matter of race? >> i think it's a matter of profiling. which i think that's an issue that mr. zimmerman himself considers as someone suspicious. a black kid with a hoodie on, jeans, tennis shoes. but as you said, thousands of people wear that outfit every day. so what was so suspicious about treyvon that zimmerman felt as though he had to confront him? >> well, mr. martin, again i'm so sorry for your loss. the words seem hollow. but we'll continue to focus on this. i appreciate you talking tonight. and mr. crump as well. thank you. >> thank you very much. >> let's dig deeper now. sonni hostin and jeffrey toobin. >> this is a guy that went to buy skittles and came back dead. that's what this is about. however, florida law is so peculiar and so protective of people who shoot people that i am not surprised that zimmerman has not been arrested and i'm not sure he's going to be arrested. because i think the law is basically an invitation to use deadly force under basically any circumstance. it allows disproportionate use of force. it says if you feel reasonably threatened even without a gun, you can use deadly force as response. >> even if you've gotten out of your vehicle? >> even though it's a robust law and probably the broadest law out there, bottom line is there's always that exception. if you are the first aggressor and pursuing, you can't use this self-defense claim. this is so clear. had this been in any other jurisdicti jurisdiction, he would have been arrested and charged with homicide. >> the problem here is we don't know what happened between the 911 call where he says stay away and then altercation. that's a lot of time. >> martin's father assured that was his son calling for help. that hasn't been confirmed by witnesses at this point. >> how they wound up next to each other is not clear. >> well, it's clear he pursued him. >> he said he did. he said he was going to. >> but he also claims the 911 tape that martin is approaching his car. >> but he runs away. because zimmerman says on that tape on one of them he is running. he's running away. and that's what we tell our kids all the time. stranger danger. you run away. i tell my son that. if somebody's approaching you, run. he did the right thing. >> identified this guy as a neighborhood watch person. we have no idea. >> that's why -- i mean, it's important to reserve judgment for awhile and let an investigation go forward. this was a residential neighborhood. there could have been people that saw what went on here. >> but it's been a month. this happened february 26th. any other jurisdiction with the same set of facts perhaps with a different race attached to the parties, there would have been an arrest. it's flooring me. >> a young male with a hoodie and white tennis sneakers. this is what i wear every day. if it was a white male in his neighborhood, would zimmerman been saying this person looks like they're on drugs? >> i doubt that. >> the lawyer said if treyvon had been the shooter, is there any chance in the world he would not be in custody? the answer is no. but i just