now on bbc news, unspun world withjohn simpson. hello and welcome to unspun world, here at the bbc london headquarters. after a brief pause, will the war in gaza enter a new and even more worrying stage? the vast majority of the gaza population are in the south, that will mean a lot of casualties if they continue the way they have, civilians dead. as cop28 rolls out in dubai, disturbing evidence about the health effects of oil and gas production on the people of the region. really high levels of respiratory disease, asthma, also high levels of heart disease and this is particularly bad in communities that live close to the gas flaring. and is europe as a continent lurching towards the far—right? when it comes to concerns about the cost of living, i think when it comes to migration, you can say that europe is moving to the right. the pattern that has been followed in just about every war israel has fought since 1973 has been repeated now in gaza. israel is attacked, hits back hard — too hard for the liking of israel's friends, particularly the united states, and then there is immense pressure for a ceasefire. after that, the issue is how long the ceasefire or ceasefires can be very long for. in the case of the gaza war, of course, israel has a very real interest in extending the ceasefire because that is how it gets its hostages back. but this means that israel's determination to destroy hamas root and branch is undermined, even though there is a clear determination among western governments that hamas should not be allowed to control gaza again. the eu's foreign affairs chief is only the latest international figure to make this point. the bbc�*s international editor jeremy bowen is back in london from gaza for a few days before heading out there again. what is the situation like on the ground? i went into the north of gaza with the israeli army on one day and because the civilians had all been ordered out, forced out, pushed out, fled, they are dealing — i do not see one civilian. they were really hammering the place. there was not one intact building that i saw. if they want to do that in the south, well, there is the issue for the vast majority of the population of the gaza strip, which is approximately 2.4 million, is in that area. that will mean a lot of casualties if they continue the way they have, civilians dead, and that is, of course, going to increase the pressure on israel. notjust from its enemies but its allies. the americans, the british, staunch allies of israel have said that too many palestinian civilians are being killed by the israeli military. the fact is that the israeli army is not empowered to listen to these western warnings. they say they fight within the laws of war and they respect all the rules regarding protection of civilian lives and when civilians get killed, that it is the fault of hamas because they use civilians as human shields. that is not something clearly that is accepted by its allies, the us, britain, the french. they have that explicitly that too many have been killed. what do they do? do they fight in a different way? do they use lighter weight weapons that as well as hitting the target do not necessarily kill everybody within a certain radius around it? do they not send in heavy tanks and send in men in smaller squads instead and therefore exposing them to much more risk? it is a really difficult military problem and it is compounded by the fact that there does not seem to be a thought—out political objective on the israeli side for how all this ends. do you think this is also going to change the way that israel is governed, its approaches, its attitudes? i spoke to a man who was in the �*90s oslo peace process, and he was the speaker of the parliament. i said to him, what has this done to the israeli psyche in terms of the trauma that the country is going through? he said, look, thejewish state, the existence of israel, was meant to inoculate us against the holocaust and all of that, the awful legacy, the terrible memories. he said, suddenly people are thinking the vaccination is not working. he said, the mindset of israeli's has gone back to something like between the end of the second world war and the declaration of israeli independence in 1948. in other words, a great deal of uncertainty. i think things have changed in so far as israel is a very powerful, very secure country in many ways. there are these existential worries that they have because of the way their security was breached in such a profound matter. the bbc has been attacked, is still being attacked by hamas supporters. almost as much as it is being attacked by israeli supporters. is that your feeling of how it has gone, that you personally have had that degree of personal attack? in a sense, it goes with the territory. at a time like this when both sides are really hurting, for a whole variety of reasons, they are not interested in a partial journalist. ——impartial journalism. they want support. they want their victimhood to be acknowledged. they want us to be cheerleaders for whatever side it is they support. that is not the business that we are in injournalism and at the bbc. if it keeps us as accurate as we can possibly be at all times, well, that is to the good. i don't think it is necessarily a bad thing to be criticised. i think it is part of it. also in modern warfare, the media battlefield is really, really important. perceptions of victory count almost as much, certainly in the minds of politicians, and people, as the actual realities on the ground. i have a friend, a leading journalist with very strong links to the military in particular. he said to me he thought that it was at least possible that israel's sharp shift to the right may have come to an end now with all of this. it might now become necessary for israel to work for some other kind of future than just simply dominating the palestinian population. is he being too over optimistic? one of the two main opposition leaders is now in the war cabinet. the extremist far—right members who have sustained netanyahu's government are not in the war cabinet. i think that if there is a scenario, which is what the americans want, that a peace process is somehow restarted, that the palestinian authority, which is the other side of palestinian politics, comes in and runs the place somehow. then you can see that scenario perhaps playing out and leaders change, faces change, policy change. but netanyahu has spent most of his career, among many things, thwarting the establishment of a palestinian state, so that is something thatjoe biden feels is the only solution ahead. it is something that benjamin netanyahu has spent his whole career, despite one or two speeches to the contrary, actively doing all he can for it not to happen. cop28, the international conference to cut emissions and hopefully limit global warming, has opened in the united arab emirates — one of the world's biggest producers of fossil fuels. the head of the conference, who is also the head of a major oil company, argues that the best way forward is to ensure that big oil is working with the ecologists in reducing global warming's harmful effects. though his company is planning much greater expansion over the next three years and saudi arabia is reported to be encouraging poorer countries to buy more oil and gas. last year, bbc arabic broadcast a remarkable documentary showing the effects of oil production on the health of people in southern iraq. now it has produced another film called breathless, which shows the worrying effects of the habitual burning off of gases, a process known as flaring, has on the population of the gulf. its producer is owen pinnell. pollution that comes from the process can be extremely toxic to health. in ourfilm, which came out last year, we found that cancer, levels of cancer, were extremely high in the towns and villages surrounding the oil fields. in particular, leukaemia amongst children, rates of leukaemia were very high but there are also other health effects that can be linked to the flares. high levels of respiratory disease, asthma, also high levels of heart disease and this is particularly bad in communities that live close to the gas flaring. between iraq and iran, there is 25% of the entire world's gas flaring, so this population is extremely exposed to dangerous pollution that comes from that process. how far does it spread around the gulf area? what we found is the pollution is spreading hundreds of kilometres from the oilfields. the scientists we worked with took the data on the volumes of the flares, so how much gas they were burning, and combined that with information on the exact types of pollutants which were being emitted and then also looked at weather data like wind patterns and found that this pollution is being carried, sometimes, for example in kuwait city, which is 140 kilometres south of basrah, they found dangerous levels of pm2.5 which is a type of pollution which can be linked to heart disease and lung disease. kuwait has one of the highest levels of heart disease, especially deaths from heart disease in under 70s, in the world. it also has extremely high levels of asthma amongst children. the air quality in kuwait is very bad and what we found is that gas flaring is contributing to that. what do the oil companies that are actually responsible for the flaring, what do they say about it? the biggest oilfield in iraq, which has the highest level of flaring in the world, is rumaila, and that's partly run by bp, partly run by petro china, a chinese oil company, and bp said they are helping the operator to reduce flaring emissions, while petro china said they are supporting bp in doing this and are extremely concerned about the findings of our investigation. there is no denying that this is happening, that the levels of flaring are extremely high. one of the reasons for that is because we can see the flaring from space, so we have used satellite data to identify these very high levels of flaring. nobody is saying it is not happening, nobody is saying it is not causing disease and problems? nobody is denying it is happening, but in the last ten years, there has been very little progress in iraq in reducing levels of flaring. we are also looking at other countries that are flaring, one of them being the uae. in the united arab emirates, they say that they are trying to cut out all gas flaring. they have an aim to eliminate all routine flaring by 2030 and yet what we have found is they are flaring every day. what do the other oil companies say in the uae? when we took the allegations to adnoc. they say they are focusing on eliminating routine flaring by 2030 and have a lower rate of flaring then the global industry average. the uae government did not comment on the allegations and neither did the cop28 team. because that is where cop28 will be? that is right. we will show the film at cop28 and what it is showing is that the pollution has been created from flaring is reaching dubai and essentially those people coming to cop28 are being affected from the pollution from the oilfields in the uae. so it will be really good to get some sort of comment on how they plan to phase out that practice. just about the entire world is affected in one way or another by the movement of peoples. there have been riots in south africa over the years against migration from poorer parts of the african continent. europe, north america, australasia have between them taken in millions of people from developing countries as the pressures of war and global warming get worse. mass immigration has a real advantages. it counters the falling birth rates of rich countries and it provides a workforce to do the kind ofjobs which the established inhabitants do not want to do. it can also lead to much greater social tension. france, germany, austria, the netherlands, sweden, denmark in particular have been permanently changed by immigration and right wing parties and movements have become increasingly successful there. as a result, are centre—right party is shifting to accommodate the far right? the latest example is from the netherlands, where the outspokenly anti—islam politician geert wilders has topped the poll. i spoke to katie adler, the bbc�*s europe editor. probably inadvertently one of his main rivals from the centre—right party said early on in the campaign that she would, she opened a door to making a coalition government with him and that really was a first in the netherlands, because the more mainstream parties have consistently said they would not go into politics with geert wilders because of his inflammatory views and talks. the fact that she did that helped softened the image of his party. i think what also softened the image is, if you look at all mainstream parties, what were they campaigning on? migration, migration, migration. that also helped bring him to the more mainstream. what has happened in the netherlands obviously is the response to the overall issue of immigration. but the issue which affects most, if not every country in europe, hits them in different ways, doesn't it? i think we can look at a broad pattern at the moment. i think when it comes to concerns about the cost of living, when it comes to migration, you can say that europe is moving to the right. you can really affect government policy outside government, and the netherlands is a very good case in point. mark rutte, who is the caretaker prime minister for many years, is someone from the centre—right. but under pressure from those figures, he is going further right on policies about immigration. look at emmanuel macron, when it comes to migration and security, he feels forced to the right to beat off the competition from the far right. so at the end of the day, what we can see is it will all affect the eu. it will affect the eu when it tries to make migration deals. the most influential voices are italy, under georgia meloni, who comes from the hard right, but more centrist governments are feeling under pressure to join georgia meloni in her area because of the political competition they are facing at home. with georgia meloni, for instance, you are not getting the geert wilders line at all. she has, if anything, she has been rather gentrified ——centrified by coming into power, hasn't she? georgia meloni is not as extreme as some feared she would be. european asylum policy is moving more to the right but i don't think we are talking extremist terms because when getting into government, your hands are really tired. and if we bring it back to the netherlands, geert wilders said if he was to make it into government, he would have to build things back a bit and many compared him to donald trump because of his populist language. and now is known as �*geert milders�* because some are saying he will have to tame his language. this is all about going into politics with some sort of parties with people like geert wilders. not as they used to be. if we look at germany and the afd, when they first did well in regional elections, it was a huge news, a mic drop moment. it was huge. absolutely! the country that gave birth to the nazi party and the horrors of the second world war, now we see them in a number of regional governments. there was talk about one of the main contenders who wanted to become chancellor after angela merkel, saying we really have to be open to the idea of forming a coalition government with the afd. so things have really moved in europe. on the migration point, the real trouble is no—one has a solution to it? a lot of talk inside of europe, led by italy and georgia meloni, saying we need to invest more in these countries where so many migrants are coming from but that is easily said and how is it done? and how do you make sure that people who need the money get it and so on and so forth. it is a matter of managing migration rather than solving migration. i do not think you can say across the board that europe is going in one way or another, but we just heard just after the dutch election viktor orban saying the winds of change are blowing across europe, the winds of change are blowing, exactly in which direction we cannot say. when i was the brussels correspondent in the �*70s, if we were able to say to the architects of the european union, look, it will be like this, the afd in germany would sometimes top the polls and geert wilders in the netherlands, they would have been horrified, wouldn't they? you have to keep in mind to things. one, in the 1970s, we were a lot closer to the horrors of the second world war and it was from the ashes of the second world war that the european union emerged, with this "never again" promise, we will work together. also what happened, from those years, from the founding of the european union and governments post—world war ii, there was a centre, a centre—right, and the centre left in most european countries. they dominated, not just politics but life. i think what you have seen in recent years is a shaking off of those shackles and many voters in europe saying you cannot decide things for us any more. we want to have a choice. it is an end if you like to this top—down politics, where you politicians tell us the people how we should think, how we should live, and what we should do. we want to have a say and we feel we have been ignored. opinions are divided and politicians have lost the faith of the voters. that's what gives us a much more unstable political environment in europe, which is then exacerbated by the instability we are seeing around us, whether it is covid—i9 or russia's full—scale invasion of ukraine, or the catastrophe we are now seeing unfolding in the middle east. katie adler, europe reporter. and immigration is affecting europe as a whole and something particularly disturbing happened last week in an unlikely part of europe, dublin, normally a quiet, delightful, welcoming city. a man originally from north africa who had come to ireland 20 years ago and had irish citizenship, attacked a small group of children and their mothers with a knife outside a school in the city centre, injuring several of them quite badly. it was a horrible business but immediately people on the extreme right started organising an anti—immigrant protest in dublin and some clearly intended it to be violent. one man recorded a message on social media, saying, "everybody tool up!" meaning, bring a weapon. and then, "any foreigner, just kill them." the dublin police had a hard night of it, with cars burnt, shops looted and fighting going on for hours. some commentators maintained afterwards it had happened because the irish authorities had refused to take much notice of the wave of often illegal immigration to ireland and whether that is true or not, the depressing fact is, no—one in europe seems to have an idea of how to stop the flow of illegal immigrants. australia, on the other side of the world, introduced a policy of deflecting illegal immigrants to camps in unpleasant sounding territories a long way away as a deterrent. this was adopted by britain, with its rwanda policy, but that has been tied up in all sorts of legal issues and has not had any real perceptible effect on the flow. while poor countries are suffering from wars or the effects of global warming, droughts, famines and floods, it is proving impossible to stop the illegal flow of people determined to better themselves and their families. how do liberal, open, law—based societies like ours stop illegal immigration without using the kind of nasty measures which run counter to everything our democracy stands for? and until we do find a way, the ultra—right may well show more of the kind of scenes we saw last week. as i say, it is a worrying time. anyway, thank you for being with us for this episode of unspun world. from me and the team, until we meet again, goodbye. hello. the weather story just recently feels as though it's been pulled straight from a dickens christmas novel. it's been bleak out there, hasn't it? we saw temperatures as low as —10 first thing this morning. we also had some dense freezing fog and some snow showers which moved their way from glasgow over towards fife during the early hours. now, those showers will ease away and actually through the afternoon we'll have some sunny spells into north and east scotland. a few showers of rain out to the west with northern ireland and generally along west facing coasts of england and wales will see some showers as well. the fog will lift to sunny spells elsewhere, but it is going to be a cold afternoon with temperatures barely above freezing once again in places, maybe scotland not getting above freezing at all. now, the showers out to the west will drift further inland through the night. and with temperatures falling away, we could see a spell of snow moving its way through the midlands, maybe some freezing rain down through the south east of england, which could have an impact first thing in the morning. clearer skies further north, still leading to another bitterly cold night across scotland in particular. so we're going to start off on sunday then cold and frosty here in scotland, some sunny spells into northern ireland, early morning rain easing away from east anglia and southeast england. a blanket of cloud continues for much of the afternoon and there'll be bits and pieces of nuisance rain. so not a particularly pleasant afternoon to come, but it will be just that little bit milder. temperatures here between four and eight degrees. another cold story in scotland, but at least you've got the sunshine. another area of low pressure will bring a spell of wet snow, perhaps, as it moves its way through northern england, primarily rain through the south and east. that will pull away to sunny spells and scattered showers. still a little bit of wintryness with any elevation behind it. it stays cold in scotland, with temperatures again between three and five degrees. further south, we're looking at 6—8 as a daytime maximum. now, as we move out of monday into tuesday, that's when we start to see this milder air arriving. it's going to push the blues out of the way with a southerly wind driving in milder air across the country. but unfortunately, it does look likely to come at a price. it means that as we head through the week, it turns increasingly wet and windy at times. live from southern israel, this is bbc news. the palestinian red crescent says it's received the first aid trucks to enter gaza since the truce ended. israel's military says its renewed bombardment of gaza has hit more than 400 targets. iamat i am at the cop28 climate conference in dubai where after a busy start there has been another flurry of activity on day three. i'm gareth barlow in london. and former prime minister boris johnson is expected to apologise to the uk covid inquiry — acknowledging that the government and feminist icon gloria steinem tells us what she thinks the future of women's rights might look like.