riding high. nikki haley seizes on fresh momentum. >> you join with me in these caucuses, we'll finish this. >> and trump pledges to be a dictator on day one. >> it was entertainment. >> i think it was a joke. >> and impeachment fever. anger boils over in congress. >> this was personal. this doesn't have anything to do with policy or merit or anything else. >> as the house barrels toward a biden impeachment. could they get anything done. >> we have meaningful policy making and the utter depths of stupidity. >> plus balancing act. the president struggles to hold his coalition together. >> trump just talked the talk, we walk the walk. >> biden tries to convince skeptics the alternative is worse. and out of world. >> i'm not talking about little green men or flying saucers. >> the push to shed light on government secrets about ufo's. the best reporting from inside of the corners of power starts now. good morning, and welcome to "state of the union." i'm manu raju. nikki haley now emerging as a republican presidential candidate with the clear momentum in the race but for second place. and of course second place is not good enough. and does she have the time and strategy in place to overcome donald trump, the front-runner. haley and the other candidates descends on iowa this month. haley and ron desantis are neck-and-neck but again for second place. so what is haley's strategy at this crucial moment in the race? cnn's eva mckend is in walky, iowa, ahead of the event today. tell us what you're hearing from the haley team and campaign officials about what their game plan is going forward? >> well her game plan is largely to talk about her time as governor of south carolina. suggesting that that executive leadership, that is what she would bring to washington. and she leans on her foreign policy experience and talking about her time at the u.n. as preparing her to deal with these conflicts that we have in israel and ukraine. but largely, in these closing weeks here, in the last six weeks as we get to the iowa caucus, she seems to be leaning into this electability argument, looking at polling. and making the case to the iowans that she would be better suited to go up against president biden than former president trump. some of her supporters are skeptical of that argument. others believe that she could pull off a political upset. let's listen. >> my belief is she's the only one that could probably re-set independent vote and truly secure the presidency. >> i tend to be more 3moderate and i think she speaks to that better than anybody else. >> i wouldn't be here if she doesn't have a chance of winning. i think donald trump is very beatable, to be honest with you. >> to give you a taste of nathan schmidt, and we spoke to him in silver lake in iowa and he voted for trump and then president biden. he has no appetite to vote for either of them next year. so that gives you a sense of the type of voters that haley is tracting, voters who are concerned about winning. though, to be clear, her policy positions are firmly conservative. >> eva mckend in walky, iowa. we'll see if enough voters agree with that one you spoke with. thank you for that. so let's gdiscuss this with my great panel, alana train and margaret talev and marianna sotomayor. good morning to you all thank you for joining us. a lot to discuss and break down into this key moment in the race and nikki haley clearly has the momentum and the polls and the endorsements shows it. she's setting the bar a little bit low about iowa, of course the first in the nation, the caucus state kicks off in mid-january. this is how she described what she needs to do in iowa. >> the way i look at it, we just need to have a good showing in iowa. i doent think that means we have to win necessarily. but i think that means we have to have a good showing. >> so what does good showing mean for her? to have any realistic path to overcome donald trump? >> right. well i think she's recognizing and lowering the expectations that she's spent more time in iowa in the last several weeks but that hasn't been her strategy. desantis has been running this all eggs in the iowa basket strategy himself. so i think she's trying to set expectations which is a good showing an have people come out and support her. she is doing well in iowa even though desantis is spending more time there. she doesn't need to win iowa to come out of the caucus very strong and head into new hampshire with a lot of momentum still at her back. >> and look, the momentum is there according to the polls as well as the money. you menged new hampshire. their superpac has spent more in new hampshire than any other campaign superpac. $12.9 million. almost $13 million in new hampshire and iowa. they're third overall, 14.7 million. that is the superpac and not the campaign spending. and haley seizes upon, the new "wall street journal" poll out this weekend, 2024 hypothetical match-up, trump up by four against biden. that is outside of the margin of error of 2.5%. and look at haley. 17 points above biden. is that an out liar or reality? but regardless that will give herself to talk about in the campaign trail. >> for sure. it is a general election argument trying to be retrofitted into a primary campaign strategy. but, it is her best play, i think. and that is not a total outlier. i think marquette shows a match-up runs. and what that survey shows is the idea that there a general election setting, where you could capture independent voters or swing voters, people that went obama to trump and then trump to biden, those people would swing back for nikki haley, hypothetically, much more than donald trump. men as well as women. this is not just a play for center right women but for men as well. and axios does monthly surveys with swing voters, we're in north carolina next week and one the questions is about nikki haley. it is precisely this question. if she could take that argument into iowa successfully and surpass say hypothetically surpass ron desantis, it could give her the kind of momentum she needs, if all of the national surveys are correct, she needs something to compete with donald trump. although she's soft selling the impact of iowa, she has a lot riding on her performance. >> any of the candidates will say biden is beatable. every poll said that biden is beatable. yes, haley may be winning but trump is winning outside of the margin of error. >> and republicans will point that out. elect me because biden is not doing so well right now. but of course the biden campaign is trying to say many times, don't compare me to the almighty, compare me to the alternative. look at what trump is saying about being a dictator and raising that question about could that happen afterwards. and haley is trying to lean in more now on trump. she's not going for the jugular, but she's been saying we can't replace chaos, speaking about biden, with more chaos. and in terms of trump. so she's trying to show that difference. and really make the argument that biden did when he was running in 2024 which was who could actually beat trump, who could beat that person. >> and it is interesting, because trump clearly recognized that this attack about him, being a threat to democracy, is an issue for him. he started to say it more increasingly, this is one of the m main biden campaign lines that donald trump risks democracy. and just last night in new york he tried to take this again head on. >> in the past few weeks the radical left democrats and their fake news allies have unveiled their newest hoax. that donald trump and the republican party are a threat to democracy. do you believe this? it is a hoax. we call it now the threat to democracy hoax. because that is what it is. >> i mean he clearly recognizes this is an issue, given all of hi legal troubles. he was charged with trying to over turn the 2020 election and that trial could happen during the election year, he's on trial tomorrow in a civil fraud case in new york. but all of these issues, donald trump clearly recognized there is a problem for him. >> oh, definitely and as does his campaign and that is why you're continuing to hear him talk about this and what he's doing. it is classic donald trump. he's tlrying to flip the script. he tried to put it on biden. what they're doing to me, they're the ones abusing power and biden is going after me, a political enemy and using the government. many democrats and people disagree with that. but that is what donald trump is trying to do and he's continuing to talk about it because it is something that could be -- it is a vulnerability for him, i should say. they recognize that the fears of authoritarianism and him abusing the potentially the government and putting the justice department under presidential control. >> and he's not doing much to disspell the concerns about authoritarianism. listen to how sean hannity tried to get him to take it off the table and he wouldn't take it off the table being a dictator and say he would be a dictator on day one. >> he said you're not going to be dictator are you? i said no, other than day one. we're closing the border and we're drilling, drilling, and after that i'm not a dictator. >> the exchange went on for much much longer than that. i asked a lot of republicans, not necessarily trump fans about that, whether they have any concerns about this potential -- these talk about dictatorship, here is what they said. >> it is entertainment. you know, we've been around him long enough. it is entertainment. >> i think it was a joke. >> i think that is probably just fairly kind of typical trump rhetoric. >> we all know trump uses unique skr expressions when he explains things. >> sometimes a baby will spout off words an you could take them literally or seriously and that is a bit what we could see from trump and his campaign right now. >> each romney who is no trump fan said that don't take him literally or seriously. a little bit of a repeat of what we saw this time in office. >> if you're basing all of your jum about what kind of president trump will be on one comment that he made with sean hannity, that is not the way i would go as a voter trying to inform myself. you could look at his four year record and his conduct leading to up and during and after january 6 and make those decisions. >> he said he would suspend the constitution. he would call for suspending the constitution. so this would be in line with some of the things. but republicans not too concerned. there is a lot more to discuss and be sure to tune in tuesday and website night for cnn town halls with governor ron desantis and vivek ramaswamy. they will take questions live in iowa. coming up, house republicans find their narrow majority getting narrowing amid the resignation of kevin mccarthy. how that is reopening old wounds. >> announcncer: "insnside polit sundnday" broughght to youou by. brililliantly sasafe. your question is, just give up and quit. i'm the wrong guy to ask that question to. i never quit. >> what a difference a few months makes. mccarthy was the most powerful republican in washington less than three months ago and now he will no longer be a member of congress and after a tumultuous year as speaker leaving a raider thin majority in a badly divided conference. as speaker he was very chatty with the president and sometimes quite combative as i witnessed firsthand. >> the votes just aren't there. why is it so hard for you. >> you have spend any time with my conference. what amazing to me. here we are with the biggest things going on with spending and i could count yon you for most inappropriate questions. >> you changed your position. >> i never changed my position. >> you supported a texas lawsuit. do you regret supporting that lawsuit? >> no, i don't. do you know why? >> tell me when your done with your questions and when i could answer. >> all of the democrats voted to try to bring chaos. >> you guys can't govern. >> and of course that was after he was ousted as speaker and they were struggling to get someone and eventually mike johnson to become speaker. that was just, it is amazing. marianna, you walk the halls with me on the hill and on the house side talking to members. what impact does his departure have on the house and how are members dealing with this? >> his impact will be felt so much more outside of the halls of the house. rather than inside. and the reason is because everyone said that his one thing that he has been excellent at and there is proof, even though he won the majority, it was way, way more narrow than even he expected, but still, he as -- he has such a grasp politically on the campaign trail. who should i recruit and who makes sense in a district. who could get there and trying to oust some of the more extreme republicans who just didn't want to govern. so that is the big impact and the fundraising. my god, that is the first thing that house republicans would say, now what do we do. >> and mike johnson is trying to fill that void. and can he do that. and he knew -- he got the republicans back to majority to his credit. not as big of a majority as he wanted which is why he got pushed out by people who didn't want him there and there is still anger about all of this. there yes, it happened a few months ago but i spoke to republicans aligned with mccarthy and they're not happy with the aftermath. >> what do you say to the eight republicans that voted him up. >> big screw up. just inain behavior. >> it is a big loss to the republican party and to the house and a personal loss for me and am i upset with the eight republicans that joined all of the democrats to remove him? absolutely i'm upset. >> we're worse off for eight republicans voting with the democrats. >> there is no regrets among the eight republicans. i asked burchett and he said kevin mccarthy will make a lot of money. this is a problem heading into the year with the divisions an emotions that are still raw here. >> and the other thing is the completely narrow majority. now only they have one seat and they had struggle when there was four. and from the people that i talk to, they recognize they're not going to be able to get anything done particularly before the elections really -- the 2024 election cycle ramps up. and i agree with marianna's point, as we get closer to the election, that is where you'll see the impact felt. will they be able to maintain the majority and could they grow it and things that people knew mccarthy did well and that is unclear how johnson will do. >> and some of the frustrations are because the new speaker is facing the same things that mccarthy was faced with and unable to do anything different or better and not having the sword held over his head. for the mccarthy loyalists, what difference is there -- >> they are agreeing to higher spending levels that mccarthy agreed to and they have to back off amid the threats from the right. now they're okay with that. they're -- johnson had to keep the government open for a short period of time. not pushing him out of office. we'll see if that happens. mccarthy was on "cbs this morning" supporting trump and he said he supports trump. but he also had a bit of a warning for trump. >> what president trump needs to do in this campaign, it needs to be about rebuilding, restoring and renewing america. >> he's talking about retribution, day in and day out. >> he needs to stop that. he needs to stop that. >> will trump listen? >> no. definitely not. especially not to kevin mccarthy. it is interesting. you could tell that kevin mccarthy is far more candid now that he doesn't have the weight of the house gop conference on his back. but no, i mean, donald trump, very much he's already -- their relationship has become for more tense and strains is not going to listen to mccarthy. >> wand i had a chance to talk o the chairman of the house gop committee campaign hudson, despite facing a very difficult map with redistricting an the like and the fact that mccarthy is no longer there to be the prolific fundraising that he was and hudson brushed it off and said they believe they're in a strong position because of donald trump. >> did you feel you could keep the majority? >> we're going to grow the question. >> that is a bold assessment when you look at the map. >> if you look athe polls, we won 15 seats and we beat 15 democrats with trump at the top of the ticket and i think he'll do better then time than in 2020. >> is he right about that? there are 18 biden district democrats, is trump going to help them grow the majority? >> if you ask them, they will say no. they don't want to run with trump. they want to -- mccarthy in that clip was -- that is showing how tactful he is politically. because we saw in the '22 midterms where a lot of the vulnerable members became members of congress because they were sticking to this is what we want to build and how we want to govern. that question of governance really impacted many of the members in october when they litly didn't do anything and couldn't pick a speaker and the members are hearing, we're hearing from the constituents we can't do anything this is bad for us. and bringing that trump question, in places like new york, california, where trump actually ignites the democratic base, that is where you're seeing a lot of both democrat and republican playbook going through the two states and i don't think trump is up there. >> mitch mcconnell will tell you that it was donald trump in 2022 that essentially cost them their chance in the senate republican majority. he was on the campaign trail, late campaigning in some of the swing states. he also propped up some candidates who were weak and sort of flaming out and petered out during the election. but it is a different calculation among the house republicans, probably because of the fact that the districts that they represent, which are very trump heavy districts. >> i'm not surprised to hear the head of the national republican congressional committee make that argument. what is the argument he's going to make. if he can't project confidence about it, who will. it is an argument that some senators have better fact bases to make it on because those voters are looking at statewide races. they may be swingable states or states on the map may lean more red. it could be a referendum against joe biden. the ones that are in play, it is a trump versus biden contest just as much as it is a biden versus biden contest. >> the top of the tiengt ticket will impact the house and the senate. we'll see. up next, house republicans prepare to turn up the heat on president biden as his son stairs down more federal charges. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ hunter biden facing nine new federal charges. with prosecutors alleging that the president's son spent thousands of dollars on drugs and escorts and girlfriends. all while dodging his taxes. charges coming after hunter was subpoenaed to testify behind closed doors before the house as part of the gop impeachment inquiry. his lawyers said he would be happy to testify in part of a public hearing and as republicans have yet to prove that president biden benefits from his son. and he said this about the heim inquiry. >> next to the declaration of war, i think impeachment is the heaviest power that the congress has, the house specifically under the constitution. so we have to be very methodical and follow the facts where they lead and the white house is now stonewalling our investigation. >> so, look, they have announced an impeachment inquiry back in september under speaker mccarthy. they don't need a vote. and they decided to have a vote to show forward momentum and show progress. speaker johnson said they could make a better argument in court for documents, we'll see. but the challenge here is that once you go down the road of an impeachment, inquiry vote and you have to impeach the guy other wise it will look like you let him off the hook and politically that is not what republicans want. >> exactly. they don't want that. especially the vulnerable republicans do not want to utter the word impeachment. everyone seems on the republican side to be okay with this green lighting and impeachment inquiry. because as you point out and many republicans have said, if we want to subpoena someone, it is our right. we have that oversight capability. and also if we want to go to court, we need this to hold up in court and that is -- >> and that court fight would take all next year until the next congress and who knows who the president will be at that time. >> exactly. but you're exactly right. if you're green lighting this, that means you'll have to answer the question at the end of the day, whatever that comes and that is not what vulnerable republicans want to do closer to november. >> everything getting harder on capitol hill specially for vulnerable republicans and i caught up with them and asked them about moving forward on heim inquiry and they're open to green lighting this and voting for the inquiry but charging the president with high crimes or misdemeanors, which is a high bar is only done a handful of times in the history of this country, that is a much different proposition as a lot of republicans are saying we have the evidence yet to prove that he acted corruptly. >> i think the american people deserve the right to answer questions but we need to focus on the priorities coming into this congress. >> i'm very comfortable with the impeachment inquiry. >> and do your constituents want you to be pursuing an impeachment inquiry. >> i don't believe this is an issue of my constituents. >> an inquiry is so much different than an impeachment. i don't think so. we're trying to get the facts. >> jen kiggins from virginia was interesting, she said, we'll get answers to those questions but i also believe we need to focus on the priorities we have coming into this kcongress. not necessarily impeachment for some of those members. >> yeah, i think there is a strategy that said this is a good for the base and donald trump but i don't think this is a strategy aimed at helping the republicans in vulnerable house seats who are an owe the bubble. it is clearly not. their fate is not taking priority over a national messaging campaign which is that if this is the general election standoff, again between donald trump and joe biden, you're looking at two presidents, you would be looking at two presidents who are faced impeachment rather than one. and that is ultimately it at the end of it, what is this is all about. and i don't know how it will end and i understand what swing voters have been telling us for months, they don't think there is any merit or any case for impeaching joe biden. but at the same time, the polling pretty consistently shows in the sort of loose nebulous way that a majority of americans think that president biden had something to do with helping his son with foreign clients or something in ukraine. they don't exactly know what. there is division whether it was illegal but something unethical probably happened and that is what republicans are leaning into. >> sometimes they just want the cloud. some of the republicans say, frankly say we can't do down the road to having a vote, for impeaching him because we may not have the votes. but if the cloud is over there that could be beneficial. >> that is what this is about. about the messaging around it. and you're right, plmargaret, we've seen investigations in the house and not finding any correction between what joe biden is doing is being corrupt or linked to some of the things they're finding with some of the pages. but the questions and having the discussion about joe biden potentially, there being wrongdoing there, what hunter is doing, all of the -- of the women and the drugs and now this indictment, i mean, that is the message that they are pushing and they think it does help them. because it also continues to tain the image of joe biden and his presidency. >> whether or not the facts bear it out. >> whether or not the fakes are there. >> we're talking sheer politicals right now. there are huge issues still looming in congressmen. also the issue about how-what are they doing about ukraine and do about israel funding? there is a debate in the senate about tightening immigration laws and republicans are saying that needs to be first. we need to deal with that first before they green light for funding for ukraine. and you could see the mess that is happening right now on the hill. one of the leaders of this effort, senator murphy, of connecticut, he's a key negotiator here. he doesn't sound too optimistic about where things stand in these talks. >> right now, republican demands are unreasonable. they don't actually get democratic votes. if i were a cynic, i would say that republicans have decided to tie support for ukraine to immigration reform because they want ukraine aid to fail. we're not going to solve the entire problem of immigration between now and the end of year. but we could make a down payment. >> look, biden, there is a small agreement on immigration, house republicans aren't going to go for that. they don't want to water down a deal on immigration. they want what they passed in the house which is not going to fly with democrats. >> absolutely. it is not going to happen. and that is something that we've heard from democrats and republicans. it seems like the supplemental fight after the state department green hit sending more tanks to israel, there is a little less incentive to act immediately on israel and on ukraine it doesn't seem like it is going to happen. and listen, either everything could happen and in one week left in d.c., on capitol hill, or nothing at all. they are going to have to address pentagon funding and the margins are very narrow in the house and that is a decision for johnson. >> all sides are pointing into the new year and the white house has warned that will key kneecap ukraine at this moment. coming up, democrats are und soing the alarm over president biden's support into 2024. will he be able to rebuild his coalition? president biden is heading into an election year walking a tight rope. his approval rating standing at a dismal 37% and working hard to consider the alternative. s. he told big donors last night, you're the reason why donald trump is not only a former p president, but a defeated former president and called him a threat to democracy. he said this on friday. >> trump talks the talk, we walk the walk. look, he likes to say america is a failing nation. frankly, he doesn't know what the hell he's talking about. i see shelves on ground and cranes in the sky and people working hard to rebuild america together. >> at the same time, the president is angry with the handling of the israel-hamas war and immigration and a host of other issues yet moving too far to the left would put off the moderates he needs in the key battle ground states. our panel is back ground here. m margaret, i spoke with debbie dingle about his biden coalition and she's concerned about that. >> we worry about muslim vote understand michigan. >> i'm worried about young people and the union works. what we have to do is do a good job of telling the story of what joe biden has delivered and drawing the contrast. michigan is going to be a ground zero and one of the most competitive states but this time people believe me. >> they believe her? >> agree, michigan is a hugely important state because of the arab american vote and the african american vote and the young people vote and gretchen whitmer and all of the sides. if you're a democratic leader, the great thing about being the big tent party is that if people turn out to vote, you have the ability to put together huge wide coalitions, right. the problem with the big time party is that what it really important to one person could turn off another person and vice versa and this combination of g geopoliticals an the economy is proving to be tough for joe biden, and you're talking about black voters and he did great in 2020. 87 percent of the vote according to exit polls. now polling shows his favorable at black voters at 47%ment that is a big problem for him. the biden team recognizes that and they have some ads going after this key voting block. >> when joe biden starts passing laws like the infrastructure plan and the reduction inflation plan. >> we're striving to make a difference. >> how to put a food on the table. >> and president biden has got our backs because he's thinking about our present and our future. >> that ad is running in detroit, philadelphia and m milwaukee and they recognize they need to rebuild that coalition that took him to the white house in 2020. >> yeah. i think it is a big problem. and i agree with you. i think think rose and that is why you're seeing these ads. and it is also something in my conversations with donald trump's team that they recognize and they're going very hard after these voter blocks as well. hispanic and black voters. one thing they tell me working well for trump's campaign is the indictments and the legal battles he's facing. that is something that they see as helping boost particularly among these different types of voters. >> that is why you're hearing the democracy argument. you mentioned immigration. that is a key issue into the election year and concern about hispanic voters as well. but as you go too far on one side you anger another side. i spoke to mark kelly who represents the border state of arizona and he had a suggestion for the president to be more aggressive on the border and try to take it off the table of sorts an go to the border and see it for yourself. >> do you think that the president should go down there again and see for his own eyes what is going on? >> i think in general it is good to see things firsthand. he does have a staff that is working on this issue. but this remains a crisis. >> is it a vulnerability for him? >> well that is going to be up to his team to figure out. but i will say that this is a crisis and it is been a hard problem to manage. >> how problematic for him politically is what is happening at the border for the president? >> any time you have democrats and i believe the arizona governor sent a letter to biden saying, please do something. she's won of many democratic governors who are now saying this. that is a problem. and, you know, the administration has been saying, oh, well we've told congress they could give us more border security money and things like that. but to the senator's point, biden showing up and being more proactive about this, not just surrogates, could maybe just change the conversation a little bit. because republicans have such a hold on this. >> and there is concern about in the white house about elevating that too much and it is a vulnerability for him. and another vulnerability, progressive voters in particular. one of the progressive senators i asked him about this, about the -- why biden is struggling with the key voters? >> well there are concerns, and a lot of that is around climate change an the fact that the administration continues to green light a lot of fossil fuel projects. >> how worried are you that this could hurt his ability to win re-election. >> i think it is a significant dern. >> on the climate and the handling of israel? >> yes. >> i don't think you're going to see young voters turn out in droves for donald trump. the concern is young voters staying home is a concern for democrats and i think with the young voters an african american voters and arab american voters, what the biden team is trying to do is turn the conversation to say this is not a referendum against what you hoped biden would be versus what he is and this is an option between biden or trump and whether you vote is still a vote for trump and that is the argument you want to make to votes. what do you think donald trump would do? >> and does that convince them to stay home and not stay home and to go to the polls. huge question for the biden team. all right. coming up, what does the government really know about ufo's, some members of congress are trying to shed light on those tantalizing secrets. that is next. >> for years, others have accused the federal government of hiding unexplained aerial phenomenon in the sky. congress is poised to stifle efforts to actually answer that question. a bipartisan group of lawmakers have been calling for full disclosure of ufo sightings. one of them republican congressman tim burchett. he has inserted an amendment on the policy bill that would have acquired the pentagon to, quote, declassify documents and records related to publicly known ufo sightings, but that language ultimately did wnot make it int the final version and burchett, telling me they got screwed. >> why are you pushing this? >> since 1947 the federal government has said they don't exist and they're spending millions upon millions studying something that doesn't exist. i just want disclosure. >> why do you think they're blocking you? >> i think there's a cover up and there's something going on and i think there's technology or other things that industrial a and complex is profiting from. >> mike schumer and mike rounds are also pushing for full disclosure and this time the defense bill would not go, it would go to the national archiveses and some of those are becoming public and it does give federal agents significant latitude to, it was mike turner who resisted the push for great err disclosure. his office did not request comment and the pentagon declined to comment so the mystery continues. that's it for "inside politics sunday" up next, state of the union with jake tapper and dane bash. jake's guest includes al gore. see you next time. you're probably not easily persuaded to switch 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