check out this video of the moment the quake hit, also in mexico city, so remarkable about this footage is remember how far away this was from the quake's center. chad myers is tracking the very latest of this down in atlanta. chad, how many people felt this hit? >> some sobering numbers now, john, coming in really here. we'll talk about strong shaking, 600,000 people in mexico felt strong shaking with moderate damage. 2.3 million people felt moderate shaking but i think the number here that may really surprise us tomorrow is the u.s. geological survey has the new computer model that will tell them how many fatalities are estimated. there's a 42% chance that somewhere between 10e and 100 people died in this earthquake. there's a 30% chance of up to 1,000 people dying in this earthquake, and now we know this is just the very latest, igualapa, cnn just confirmed this town is reporting 800 structures have collapsed, mainly homes, but this is very close to the epicenter of the 7.4. now we know that it didn't shake nearly as much into mexico city or acapulco but when you talk about right under the shake, right under this 7.4 violent ripping of the earth, right there at the epicenter, we know that this town was hit the hardest. there are some other bigger towns with up to 45,000 people in them that we haven't heard anything from yet. john? >> chad will continue to track all of this as we track the fallout. we'll get back to the developments. the day's big political news, less than two hours away from the poll closing in illinois. jim acosta, and host of "state of the union" candy crowley with the romney campaign in suburban chicago. you're with that campaign because the romney campaign is expecting a win. what is their biggest expectation there bottom line tonight? >> reporter: the bottom line is they'd like to win the state. they do believe they are going to win this state. the margin they think could help them enormously, if it's a big margin. this they think would be a signal to the folks they'd like to help them wrap this up. we began to hear mitt romney after ohio talk about bringing the party together. they really would like some outside help on that, but then we had the southern primaries in alabama and mississippi where you didn't win so there's the question mark over his head. they would like to take that question mark down here with a big win in illinois, and that is certainly what they're hoping to do. we're not seeing a heck of a lot of turnout up here in the chicago area and sort of the collars they call it around chicago which is where most of the republican votes come from, which should be the friendliest of romney territories. turnout matters as you know john but that's something you watch later tonight. >> i'll be watching it closely. jim, stand by one second. i want to show what candy is talking about. illinois a big state in the middle, the most important part if you're governor romney you care about this top corner of the state. why? because in chicago alone, let me turn this off, in chicago alone you have 23% of the population. now it's a democratic city but there are a fair amount of republicans. these are the color counties, lake county critical to governor romney. if you remember previous states senator santorum wins in the smaller rural communities and governor romney in the rural suburbs. jim acosta, the center is not in illinois. he's home in pennsylvania, that's the battleground next month. what is the expectation? just the other day if you give me an upset in illinois that changes everything. >> reporter: i think john that the fact that the santorum campaign is holding its primary night party in gettysburg, pennsylvania s a sign they don't feel particularly good about illinois. they probably would be in the state if they thought they would be doing well tonight and as we know illinois is sort of an upstate/downstate equation and it just doesn't seem like there's going to be enough support for senator santorum to put him over the top. there's another sign that things aren't going to be going well tonight for the santorum campaign. they held a conference call on the delegate math earlier today. we've seen the romney campaign do that when that particular primary day might not have been going in the direction and we're seeing the same thing from the santorum camp today and frankly, john, they said on the conference call they see a path to the gop nomination, but they conceded at the same time it might be a difficult path for any of these candidates. and then one very interesting development emerged at the end of that conference call, they were talking about the fact they'd been in contact with their own super delegates about the possibility of a contested convention and they feel like they're already starting to put together a strategy in the event that something like that occurs, and then one final indication that today is not really going their way, rick santorum was on conservative talk radio show earlier today still trying to clean up that comment he made yesterday about not being all that interested in the unemployment rate, that it doesn't matter to him. he was still talking about that earlier this morning. it's not a good sign when you're playing catch-up and cleaning up at the same time. john? >> a lot of catch up and cleanup. jim as could ka with the santorum campaign and candy crowley with the romney campaign. sta with us, special coverage begins at 7:00. new revelations in the shooting death of an unarmed florida teenager and no demands for the arrest of the man who shot him. 17-year-old trayvon martin was killed last month by a neighborhood watch volunteer named george zimmerman, you see him on the right. he says he fired in self-defense after he says he was threatened by someone he described as "a black kid with a hoodie on." this morning a lawyer in the case revealed martin's girlfriend was on the phone with him when the incident started. here is an audio clip from her explanation on "good morning america." >> he said this man was watching him sew put a hoodie on. the man said what you doing around here? then somebody pushed trayvon cause the headset just fell. >> the u.s. justice department said it's investigating the shooting. this afternoon the martin family attorney demanded zimmerman's arrest. >> we don't want the buck passed, agency to agency, we want to have george zimmerman arrested for killing trayvon martin in cold blood. he had a .9 millimeter gun. trayvon martin had a bag of skittles. where is the self-defense in that? >> cnn legal analyst sunny hostin with us. a number of new developments today. let's start with the fact that you hear the recording there, the young woman saying she was on the phone at the beginning of this incident. trayvon said he was being followed. he pulled up his hoodie. in terms of the value of that as evidence, what is it? >> it cannot be underestimated because the police, john, in florida have said that the reason that george zimmerman has not been and was not arrested is because he claimed self-defense under the florida stand your ground law. there is an exception to that law and that is if you are the first aggressor, if you are the pursuer. you cannot avail yourself of that defense. the police have said that they have no evidence to dispute the self-defense claim. well this young girl's story, her depiction of what happened while she was on the phone with trayvon martin, if taken as true, disputes entirely the self-defense claim, because it proves, i think, certainly in conjunction with the fact that george zimmerman also says that he pursued and followed trayvon martin, it shows that he was pursuing him, that he was the first aggressor, especially if it is true that he indeed sort of tackled trayvon martin or pushed trayvon martin, and so i believe after speaking with one of the family attorneys, they believe that this call in particular, this discussion with this girl is why the state attorney's office has now sent this to the grand jury. it will be heard in front of the grand jury on april 21st. >> and that was my next question. now you have a grand jury process in this state. >> april 10th, sorry. >> you have the united states justice department saying we're going to take a look at how the police handled this and keep an eye on the state investigation as it goes forward. the family has what it wanted in terms of the attention. you're a former prosecutor. to have the attorney demanding at rest of mr. zimmerman, does that cross the line or is that fair game? >> i think it's fair game. certainly the family has asked for justice for trayvon martin for some time. remember this happened february 26th, almost a month. let me correct myself, it's april 10th the grand jury will be hearing this, not april 21st. so we do know as you mentioned the justice department is also investigating the shooting, the civil rights division, the fbi is also investigating. i don't believe they will be taking over the investigation because this is very much so a local law enforcement matter, but they will be working in tandem and we now know the considerable talent at the justice department will also be looking at this. and so the family has what they wanted. they not only wanted some attention, some media attention, they wanted another investigation. they say they don't trust the police department and in fact they've turned over that taped interview to the federal authorities as opposed to the state authorities, after again speaking with one of the family attorneys, my understanding is that the police have not interviewed at least that's what the family attorney is telling me, have not interviewed this witness, and in my view, she is a crucial witness, john, to this event. >> certainly makes no sense now that they know she's out there, we would assume they'd contact her soon. sunny hostin making clear the investigation and the mistrust complicating things as well. thanks for your help. >> thanks. illinois voter have two hours to cast their ballots. there's a new poll out in virginia, get this, has president obama beating mitt romney and all of his gop rivals, any of the gop candidates and when you add virginia republican governor bob mcdonnell to the ticket, that doesn't seem to help. we'll squ governor mcdonnell about those numbers, next. ♪ [ male announcer ] for our families... our neighbors... and our communities... america's beverage companies have created a wide range of new choices. developing smaller portion sizes and more low- & no-calorie beverages... adding clear calorie labels so you know exactly what you're choosing... and in schools, replacing full-calorie soft drinks with lower-calorie options. with more choices and fewer calories, america's beverage companies are delivering. do about medicare and social security... security. that's what matters to me... me? 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[ beeping ] ...to bring all the right results. it's the at&t network -- doing more with data to help business do more for customers. ♪ breaking news from the white house tonight, a source telling cnn the president is about to announce his administration will fast track permission of the construction of the southern half of the keystone pipeline connecting oklahoma to the gulf coast. this has been a controversial, more than that, a controversy. brianna keilar what's happening? >> reporter: we've learned the president as he's going on this energy tour over the next couple of days, when he's in oklahoma on thursday his plan according to a source familiar with his announcement is to say his administration will be expediting the permit process when it comes to moving along this portion of the keystone excel pipeline. as you'll recall baaing in january the administration objected to the entire 1,700 mile pipeline that would have brought fuel down from the oil sands of canada all the way down to the gulf. this is a segment of that pipeline, as right now transcanada, the company behind the pipeline tries to rework basically the root on the northern part, so this is a segment of this original pipeline route that would go from cushing down to the gulf. no doubt criticism from some environmentalists and already being met by some criticism from republicans on capitol hill. >> brianna keilar, thank you very much. big stakes today in illinois for mitt romney and if he can pull off a win you'll likely see him talking more about president obama and looking ahead to the general election but some signs of trouble in one of the big battleground states of virginia, president obama beats romney by eight points in a hypothetical matchup. the president beats all four of the presidential contenders. is the romney campaign concerned? we turn to virginia governor bob mcdonnell. you heard brianna keilar at the white house. a lot of republicans, including republican governors said hey mr. president approve the entire keystone pipeline. is approving half of it progress? >> it's progress but it's not a coherent energy strategy. john, i can tell you from being our state that produces a lot of coal and natural gas and nuclear, we've had nothing but three years of tough regulations coming out of the epa and this obama administration. he turned it down once, the senate under harry reid's leadership turned down the keystone pipeline and eight months before an election we've got a little bit of progress so yeah, that's great they're going to expedite that but this is oil from canada that will help us and reduce our reliance on foreign sources of oil. why not do the whole thing if we're serious about reducing gas rices. >> we'll ask about the northern half trust me if we get a question to the president and his team. we showed a poll saying president obama one of his big accomplishments in 2008 was winning virginia, one of nine red states he turned blue. he'd carry the state if the election were today and they also asked the question what if the republicans governor romney added bob mcdonnell to the ticket. obama/biden 50, romney/mcdonnell 43%. the numbers don't change. >> no, nobody cares about v.p. we have four candidates, trying to find a nominee, john, so nobody's paying any attention to that yet. and guess what? the election's not held today. it's going to be held in eight months and i think once we go head to head and it's romney against obama the numbers will change. i'd rather be up than down in all honesty in a swing state like virginia but this is going to change quite a bit as we get the head-to-head matchup. >> i was down to see you not that long ago and we had the conversation why can't governor romney close the deal. a month, six weeks later and i ask why can't governor romney seal the deal. santorum wins in mississippi and alabama. people say wow. romney wins in puerto ree ricoe. what does he have to do to convince people this is over or are we going to june? >> well he's got to get 1,144 votes, that's what he's got to do. there's four talented people in the race, all want to win. nobody's given up but mitt romney has twice as many delegates as any other candidate, won 18 states and territo territories, won all over the country, the only candidate with a message, that's got the money and an organization permanently in every state. he's getting more and more endorsement from key people, conhe serve tifrs, ingd pents, moderates. i think he'll be the nominee and i think it will be by june so of course there is a spirited contest right now. president obama and hillary clinton were in it until june 27th, 2008. i'd rather it be done but we have a ways to go and i think he will be the nominee sooner rather than later. >> governor romney tries to keep most of the focus on the economy. if you have a town hall voters can ask whatever is on their mind. listen a couple had questions for governor romney last night. >> do you no he what would make me happy? free birth control. >> if you are looking for free stuff you don't have to pay for, vote for the other guy, that's what he's all about. that's not what i'm about. >> the specifics are different in different conversations, whether it's about contraception should be covered in health care plans. governor you've gone through this with the personhood debate and the ultrasound bill in the state of virginia, if you look at your facebook page there's a feisty conversation going on there. in terms of the democrats are calling this a war on women. do republicans need to be, is it more careful in their language? what is it? >> well on that dialogue that i just heard, i do think this is the heart and soul of this campaign. are we a nation of guarantees or are we a nation of opportunities to achieve the american dream? that is a fundamental difference between what this president's been selling and i think what mitt romney is going to talk about, and secondly, i would say this war on women argument is very unfortunate. it's false, and it's been a political theater from the democrats for a couple months. john, the war i'm worried about is the war on the taxpayer that we've seen coming out of the white house, more taxes, more regulation, more class warfare, more separating and dividing people, and more unwillingness to be able to control spending, so that we can get our nation out of this horrific debt. listen, if i had obama's record on jobs, on spending, on debt and deficit, on energy, i'd want to talk about something else, too, and john that's really what's going on, and it's just very unfortunate that this politics of division separating men from women, rich from the middle class, continues to be the theme of this campaign. it's just not right. >> governor bob mcdonnell of virginia, appreciate your time tonight. stay in touch with the campaign. >> appreciate being on with you. thank you. >> thank you. so far mitt romney collected about half the delegates he needs for the republican nomination. what about the other half? we'll do the delegate math in a bit. next some questions michelle obama decided not to answer. all energy development comes with some risk, but proven technologies allow natural gas producers to supply affordable, cleaner energy, while protecting our environment. across america, these technologies protect air - by monitoring air quality and reducing emissions... ...protect water - through conservation and self-contained recycling systems... ... and protect land - by reducing our footprint and respecting wildlife. america's natural gas... domestic, abundant, clean energy to power our lives... that's smarter power today. i'm michael bazinet, president of creative digital imaging of bangor, maine. we have customers all over the united states. we rely on the postal service for everything that we do. the eastern maine processing facility is vital to our operation and our success. if we lose this processing facility we could lose clientele because of increased mailing times. we would have to consider layoffs as a result of that. closure of this plant will affect all of us. ♪ you'd use carbon fiber and machined aluminum, to make it more beautiful, and more durable. you'd use edge-to-edge gorilla glass for a stunning display in a more compact form. and you'd choose an intel® core i7™ processor for maximum processing power. everything that you could ever want in a laptop. introducing the dell xps 13 ultrabook™ everything. and more. ♪ cannot be contained. [ clang ] the all-new 2013 lexus gs. there's no going back. see your lexus dealer. welcome back been here's kate bolduan with the news you need to know now. >> thank you. french authorities are on alert warning that the gunman who killed three children and a teacher at a jewish school could strike again. yesterday's shooting in toulouse was the third attack in eight days on ethnic minorities. in each case the attacker used the same gun and got away on a motor scooter. the victims of the school attack will be buried tomorrow in jerusalem. in iraq, bombs went off in eight iraqi cities today, killing at least 43 people and wounding more than 200. today is the ninth anniversary of the u.s. invasion of iraq. the attacks raise security concerns just days before the opening of the arab league summit. very different story, queen elizabeth marked 60 years on the throne with a landmark address to parliament, speaking of the resilience of her people and rededicating herself to service, the real fairytale celebrations of the queen's diamond jubilee as it's called will take place this summer. ♪ got to love that music. michelle obama kept her cool on last night's "late show" despite david letterman's prodding for white house gossip like what the president really thinks of house speaker john boehner. >> at the end of the day, has your husband ever come home and said to you, oh, that john boehner, what an idiot. >> it has never happened, never, never. he is always upbeat, particularly about congress. >> i have to chuckle about that. oddly enough speaker boehner and the president were together today for a belated st. patrick's day celebration on capitol hill. boehner joked that the president might join in the singing that was going on, but the president did not. john? >> speaker also said sorry, no al green, mr. president. >> he went on, he kept going and going, they were having a little bit of fun. >> the irish music not his comfort zone. that's okay. kate see you in a little bit. coming up new exit poll information from illinois. gloria borger joins me to run the numbers. plus the developments into the investigation of shooting of trayvon martin. i'll speak with the florida congresswoman who represents his district. >> no one has been arrested. it means he still has a permit and still have a gone. gun. to keep big winter jobs on track, at&t provided a mobile solution that lets everyone from field workers to accounting, initiate, bill, and track work in real time. you can't live under a dome in minnesota, that's why there's guys like me. 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[announcer:] conocophillips says, you're right. find out how natural gas answers both at powerincooperation.com. a neighborhood watchman shot and killed an unarmed teenager. the congresswoman in that state says it should be a hate crime. illinois a big state with major expectation force mitt romney. plus the colorful and secret service code name for the republican presidential candidates. chief political analyst gloria borger is with us in new york as we await the important poll closing in illinois. i'll make the case here, first you have santorum very well in the midwest except michigan and ohio went romney. as we look for illinois i'll circle a little area in the northern part of the state, the chicago area and the suburbs around it, tell our viewers why that is so critical to governor romney tonight. >> it's very important, because those traditionally, john, are where you have the more moderate republican voters, urban area, of course, but also the suburbs. the selection probably is going to be one in the suburbs, when you get to the general election, and it's really important for mitt romney to win in the suburbs, and also to win with suburban women, i might add, john, so i'm going to be looking ant the gender question tonight also. >> the gender question very important. i want to pull out the map and show, i'm going to pull up for example we'll pop to the state of iowa and you see in iowa, governor romney won in the urban areas. senator santorum in the small rural counties. next door, gloria, how critical is it senator santorum win in springfield and these more rural counties, not only win but win big to offset the numbers up here? >> has to win big plaus thebeca aren't the numbers in the rural areas. it's been the pattern we've seen throughout the primaries in a state like ohio for example, you saw mitt romney win in the areas that you would presume democrats would win in, in a fall campaign, and you had santorum winning in the rural areas. now, fewer people so you need to win bigger and you need to win more of them in order to offset mitt romney's natural advantage in the suburbs. >> and what are we going to learn tonight? i'll switch maps and put up the delegate chase. let me pull that off so it's not confusing. this is a complicated process i should tell our viewers. unlike many states you vote for your individual delegates so it will take us a while to allocate them. governor romney is favored. senator santorum doesn't have delegateses. so governor romney gets two-thirds or more of the delegates. he already has a more than 2:1 lead and a ways to go to the finish line. how important is this for the psychology of moment snum. >> it's important for the psychology but as you know, john, this race has been up and down and up and down. this is an important win for romney because we expect him to do well here. if he didn't do well here, it would be terrible for him. but if he does well, he goes on, on saturday, to run in louisiana, where we don't expect him to do so well. so you'll see the santorum campaign looking south, saying we'll do better in the next day. this wasn't a natural home for us, but in the end, this is about delegates. i can say that. and the romney people feel that they'll do very well in this state, that they'll win, you know, if they do as well as they think they'll do, they might win 40 plus delegates out of 54, and then people start talking about okay, how does santorum do it and also by the way, what happens to newt gingrich? he's nowhere in this race in illinois. >> not a factor at all. we'll see if speaker gingrich can come back this weekend in louisiana. gloria borger will be with us all night long as we find out where the republican roller coaster presidential race takes us next. thanks, gloria. back in washington house republicans released what they're calling a blueprint for american renewal a budget plan among other things changes medicare as we know it. repeals health care reform and lowers the federal deficit but doesn't eliminate it. wisconsin republican paul ryan is the chairman of the house budget committee and key architect of this plan. >> we are sharpening the contrast between the path that we're proposing and the path of the debt and decline the president placed us upon. >> bring back kate bolduan, cnn congressional correspondent. what else is in this? >> there's a ton in this but some of the headlines really were a lot of the controversy, a lot of the fire is coming from, one big one is you're talking about some very deep spending cuts, so one element of it is cutting spending by about $5 trillion over ten years, compared to president obama's budget, that's a big number. also talking about an overhaul of the tax code, eliminating deductions, and credits, a host of them, but also taking it down to just two individual tax brackets, 10% and 25%, and probably the most controversial element of this whole thing as it was last year is we're talking about significant changes to medicare, to kind of broad stroke it for you, it would give future seniors a subsidy from the government to purchase health care, be it private or traditional medicare program. not surprisingly democrats were jumping all over this, specifically the medicare element of this budget proposal, even before the budget came out, even before it was formally announced, john, and we're hearing the familiar refrains from budget fights in the past from democrats and republicans, but big important to note here, the house, while they are hoping to pass this and the house next week, this is going nowhere in the senate in the democratic controlled senate. >> and that's because policy difference but also because this is a high stakes election year so the volume is turned up a bit. let's listen to house minority leader nancy pelosi. >> they have made it clear they want medicare to wither on the vine to die and this is an important step for them in that direction. bless their hearts, they don't believe in medicare and they act upon their beliefs, the republicans do. >> pretty straight glimpse there at the raw politics of this debate. >> absolutely, we're hearing that more and more, i mean statement after statement coming from democrats as this proposal was coming out. because this is going nowhere in the senate this t is widely known this is more of a campaign political document than anything else. paul ryan when he was unveiling it said they want to draw a sharp contrast, a sharp distinction between republican priorities and president obama and they are laying this out in this document. it's not only an important political document for congressional republicans, trying to maintain a majority in the house and win the majority in the senate but it's also even beyond washington, getting out on the campaign trail important for the 2012 republican presidential contenders. paul ryan said he had spoken to all of the leading candidates and they are on board and in fact, mitt romney and newt gingrich shortly after it was announced the budget proposal we leased statements praising the proposal. we haven't heard anything from rick santorum but this is a way of showing the republican priorities and trying to draw a contrast here between them and president obama and where they want to take the country. >> big fight in washington, will that go across the campaign this fall? >> absolutely. >> kate thank you very much. several new developments in the investigation of the fatal shooting of that florida teenager trayvon moor tin. the justice department now launching its own investigation into the police handling of this case and into the question of whether charges should be brought against the neighborhood watch volunteer, george zimmerman who says he shot martin but in self-defense. the shooting happened last month in congresswoman corinne brown's district. today she asks the justice department to consider this a hate crime. >> i am not satisfied with how the case was handled. i think there were many instances that -- you know, people need to feel that the system is fair. >> congresswoman brown joins from us capitol hill. let me start with the bachks as you're meeting at the justice department. are you now satisfied they will dedicate the necessary resources to find out just what happened and just how the police handled this? >> yes, i am. we had a very good meeting today. we metaphor over an hour today with the justice department, and the mayor of sanford and the city manager, and several members came by and met with us also, so i've got to tell you, the outrage that i've experienced on the floor from many members, both democrats and republicans, the concern about what has happened. it makes me feel good about you know, the process. people feel that there should be a feeling that, a perception that the system is fair and of course no one feels that today. no one has been charged. >> and yet for the system to be fair, i want to be clear, mr. zimmerman also gets the presumption of innocence. >> that's right. >> now that you have the justice department involved, no you that you have a grand jury being assembled in florida, would it be best for everybody and maybe especially the politicians, forgive me congresswoman to step back and let the process run its course? >> yes, i want the system to be fair for everyone. we talk about the young man's rights who was violated. look at the fact he was drug tested, the person that shot him was not drug tested, and he can never give his side, and so yes, let's have the system be fair, but let's verify the fairness. let's be fair on all sides. >> and you say you want the justice department to consider hate crimes charges. what makes you believe that could be the case here. >> well, if you listen to the tapes, it's obviously he was profiled. when you listen to the tapes, and keep in mind, when i say, when i spent over five hours last friday going through everything that happened with the officials, i'm not convinced that the system has been fair to the young man that is no longer here to give his side. i don't have any problems stepping back. i just want to make sure that the system is fair. keep in mind, no one has been arrested, and what does that mean? he still has a permit and still have a gun. >> when you mentioned that the outrage conversations with members on the floor, what nervous do you get when something like this becomes political? i understand if you didn't kick the system, maybe you wouldn't get the justice department involved, so it serves a purpose. does it serve a purpose up to a point? >> well, you know, when people look at the system, and they don't feel it's fair, i mean, john, i'm talking to you. let's be fair. do you think anywhere in america, certainly not in my district, that if the reverse, if it had been a young white male and a black man that shot him, that he would not have been arrested? not even arrested? drug tested? you know, it just -- lie detector -- whatever you do, whatever procedure you have, let's follow the procedure. >> i think those are the questions being asked in your community, congresswoman and we appreciate your time today, after that very important meeting at the justice department. we'll keep our eyes on this as we go forward in the weeks ahead. thank you so much. >> thank you. coming up, how illinois' 54 delegates will change the republican race for the white house. and later secret service trivia. do you know president obama's code name? no googling. our answer coming up in our moment you missed. is for a limited time, passages malibu will be giving away free copies of the alcoholism & addiction cure. to get yours, go to ssagesmalibubook.com. tonight's truth is a bit of a math study lesson for the candidates not named mitt romney. governor romney has around 520 delegate, you need to get to 1,144 to win. senator santorum is second but a distant second. speaker newt gingrich who hasn't been campaigning in illinois is running a distant third. the question is, can they catch up? well let me take you another way to look at this. i'll bring this and come back to the national map. the purple states are santorum, dark red are romney, speaker gingrich won south carolina and home state of georgia. illinois tonight, louisiana this weekend. here is what the other guys have to do for the rest of the race. governor romney has been winning more than a majority of the delegates, he needs to win about 49% of the delegates from today on out, and he'll get to the 1,144 and clinch. senator santorum would have to win 70% of the delegates, been winning 20% so he would need a dramatic turnaround and fast. speaker gingrich, steeper hill, 78% of the delegates we would need to win from this day forward to get to 1,144. he's been winning only about 9% of the delegates so how does santorum or gingrich stop the romney campaign? let's talk truth in new york, kelly anne conway and columbia, south carolina, the community indications director for the santorum game, hogan gidley. do you believe you can get to 1,144 or is the true santorum goal to stop romney from getting there and have momentum at the end heading into a convention? >> first of all i am a little offended i'm from the south and i would expect her to go first but i'll just answer your question. >> i'll go longer. >> there you go. that's a good trade-off. no, look, i think that math is a little bit flawed and one of the things that mitt romney has been talking about from the get-go is that math and money and spread sheets are going to win in this election. that's just a flawed strategy, because first of all, you have to operate within the rules of how this election is conducted, and quite frankly, mitt romney is putting up numbers on the board that he hasn't won yet. he hasn't scored yet. we outlined on a memo and had a conference call again today and our delegate expert john yaw who worked for bush and mccain outlined how we'll get to the number. we're not promising we're going to get there but it can be done because of the bound delegateses, the unbound delegates, the delegates still to be elected at the local levels. we're picking up a lot of delegates in some of the areas that mitt romney won. washington state is a good example of that. alaska is a good example of that. so we think we have a chance and we think we can get to that 1,144 but some things have to happen. we have a good candidate, a good message and we're out there trying to get as many delegates as we can and we have confidence we'll do that. >> kelly ann, first i want to say the romney team has zero to do with our delegate math, independent of any of the campaigns, they go state by state and check the numbers every single time. i understand your point about the hill. kelly anne how can speaker gingrich say i'm a credible candidate if he didn't bother competing in a pivotal midwestern battleground like illinois? >> when your resources are slimmer than so the called front-runner you need to pick and choose the places of strength and the places where we employ our chief resources. the question here is very simple. will mitt romney, the inevitable front-runner, get to 1,144 by the end of june, by the end of all the contests? i believe you told us the last one or will he fall short? if he falls short, this man who has had all the king's horses and men and money and mendacity and everything you could imagine if he falls short it's difficult to walk into tampa and convince the same grassroots voters who reje rejected, allowed him to fall short get there. open conventions don't happen often but doesn't mean they can't happen. if an open convention happens it's because this electorate ants -- does in the want this to be 2006-2008 all over even. you have santorum and romney focusing on each other and newt engaging the president who mentions newt by name now on energy prices. he's trying to elevate this to a national conversation on the way to tampa. >> he can elevate the conversation but to have leverage in tampa, with all due respect, he needs delegate. assume you can stop governor romney from getting to 1,144. unless you can dramatically change the math you'd get there and he would still be second and third. if romney doesn't have enough, why wouldn't the convention look for a new voice? why would they look for someone who still came in underneath romney? >> i mean it's tough to know at that point. but look, they want a candidate who's been vetted, a candidate they've gotten to know over this election. let's be honest, some of these states who typically are force-fed an establishment nominee at this point are getting to see the campaign up close and personal. they're going to get to see speaker gingrich. they're going to get to see mitt romney. they're going to get to see rick santorum. we'll see as we move into the convention just who people are gravitating behind. i go back to the point the establishment wants mitt romney. he's the establishment candidate. he's got the establishment money and the establishment support but i doubt very seriously that if we get to a convention, those voters will lap up what the establishment feeds them. they're going to want to have their voice heard, they're going to want to express who they want to be the nominee and i'm very doubtful that it is going to be mitt romney at that point. >> where on this map will it fill in next? you got to win to have an argument. >> he is campaigning very hard in louisiana this week, john. are you probably aware. they're headed to wisconsin next week, close to his home state. they'll be competitive in north carolina. he's going to compete in d.c. where senator santorum is not on the ballot. again we are picking and choose. but you're right, any way you cut it governor romney will be limping into the convention. this is supposed to be racked up a long time ago for him. he'll limp into the convention. he doesn't have the requisite delegates. people may go for option d, none of the above, but that conservative alternative will have the backing and support of gingrich, of santorum, and people like that probably, palin, probably all those who dropped out. and there's something to that. there's something to the people really taking over the convention and the party an deciding they don't want any of the above but they certainly don't want the front-runner. >> that's every political correspondent's dream, to get to an open convention. >> let's go! see you in tampa. >> both of you, thanks for coming in tonight. erin burnett out front coming up at the top of the hour. in addition to presidential politics, house budget committee chairman paul ryan unveiled his $3.5 trillion plan tonight. you talked to him. >> i did. we had an extensive conversation an as we countdown to the polls closing in illinois, we're going to let you hear what paul ryan had to say. interesting, john -- i'm going to talk about whether grover norquist really read this but the way i read it, it likes lee we could have nearly a trillion dollars in revenue. governor ryan says that could also come from wealthy americans. we'll also talk about medicare. from the left, a real, real issue with the ryan plan. >> we leave the benefit exactly intact as it is today for people in near retirement. but in order to cash flow this commitment to those current seniors which we think we should do, you need to reform it for the next generation, for your generation. you and i are about the same age, same generation. it is not going to be there for us when we retire. that's why we're saying there is a bipartisan idea out there called premium support. just like the plan members of congress have that says let's give medicare beneficiaries a choice of guaranteed options. >> 70% of americans support medicare the way it is structured now. does paul ryan have a response to that? all that coming up. top of the hour. >> fascinating guy in the middle of a fascinating debate. erin, see you in just a few minutes. the latest on the illinois primary. plus, testing your white house knowledge. every modern president had a secret service code name. you know what they called jfk? richard knic richard nixon? get your node patepads out. the answers in a moment. 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[ male announcer ] maxwell house french roast. always good to the last drop. now the moment you missed. kate, you ready? >> i am very ready. >> three republican presidential candidates have secret service protection which means an entourage of agents, tighter security events. very nice guys with guns around you. governor romney is javelin. rick santorum explained hit. >> petrus is the latin word for peter. i've talked about my grandfather whose name was pietro. i didn't think that would work. it's a name and i didn't want a name so i thought petrus which is a latin word for peter and for rock. >> he also explained the theory behind governor romney's code name and couldn't pass the opportunity to -- >> give him one. >> i understand he named it after an american motors -- i remember the javelin. >> earlier in the show we asked you if you knew some other famous code names. president obama? given the code name renegade in 2008. president john f. kennedy's code name lancer -- a wink to the camelot. did you guess president nixon's? it was search light. can you make your own water gate reference there maybe. >> i don't know how they come up with this stuff. honestly don't -- let me ask the obvious question then. if we all know these secret code names, are they so secret?