just. close in ohio, mayors on marijuana and abortion rights are on the ballot. reproductive rights are also the center the ballot for control of the state legislature, both houses in virginia. in all of tonight's elections will be a test of a fascinating and defining political dynamic of the biden era, where we have seen democrats reliably outperforming against all odds. first, the incumbent party controlling the white house is usually at a disadvantage. boaters nationally react against swimming back in the other direction, that's why midterm elections tend to favor the party that's out of power. then of course there are conditions joe biden democrats but up, against coming out of the covid pandemic. they have dealt with serious economic headwinds that have racked most of the economies of the world. chief among them, high in inflation, which peak last year in a stunning 9.1%. the president's approval rating has suffered, to say the least. he has been underwater since his first year in office, recently falling back below 40%. polling of a head to head matchup between biden's most likely opponent, donald trump, is keeping democrats a week at night. trump leads in five of the six most important battleground states, according to the latest new york times survey. and so you would think all of that will translate into poor electoral results for the democrats. that has not been the case. last year's midterms were the best friend can mentor presidents party in their first midterms since 1934, during franklin delano roosevelt bush first term. democrats have overperformed in a string of special elections is year across all kinds of districts, intended front states, including virginia, kentucky, tennessee. in fact, in 24 out of 30 races, the margin in those special elections swung towards the democrats, the presidents party. this pattern emerged in the overturning of roe v. wade last summer. that ruling was, of course, a seismic shockwaves for reproductive freedom for millions, but also politically. it instantly alienated millions of voters from the hard right antiabortion platform of the republican party. just six weeks after the ruling, bowlers conservative red kansas rejected the -- amendment to the state constitution that would've made abortion illegal. the first real indication that the majority of pro rights voters will do anything in their power to secure those rights at the voting booth. today abortion rights are on the ballot again for voters in ohio and indirectly in virginia, where republican-controlled legislature would pave the way for conservative agenda that includes passing a ban on abortion and 15 weeks. another factor at play that could be helping to drive these results for democrats, of course, is the leader of the republican party, the front runner for his party's presidential nomination. donald trump remains a wildly unpopular intensely polarizing figure. it's constantly in the news, he faces a total of 91 felony counts across four criminal cases, along with an ongoing fraud trial, and continues to make open threats to end american democracy as we know it. concerns about what a rematch between trump and biden or second trump term could bring are certainly driving force for some voters. so once again, we're gonna get a reality check tonight after the big news cycle of polling over the weekend, there's polling in the news voting. they are different things. across the country, today, people showed up for the polls, the actual polls, where their numbers are ballot, and they're gonna vote to declare what they care about, what they want. as we have seen, that is not always the same as what they tell pollsters. those results are coming in right now. joining me now is steve kornacki at the big board. steve, what have we got? what's the latest? hear >> a lot happening right now in a bunch of different states here in kentucky. well over half of the vote is in the incumbent democratic vote governor andy beshear. about five and a half points ahead in a running tally of his republican challenger, but an important piece of news to tell you, our decision desk, which has said this was too close to call, now says that andy beshear is leading in this race. and there is a reason for it. basically we have 16 counties right now. there's 112-year-old kentucky. there are 16 counties at this point that our reporting at 95% of their vote, in 14 of those 16 counties and english beshear is doing better than he did in 2019. if you remember 2019 being won by the slimmest of margins. he won by four tenths of one point, about 5000 votes statewide, and moreover i say he's doing better in 14 of those 16 counties, just about all of those 16 counties are red counties. they are republican counties. let me give you an example. pulaski county, this in 2019 produced, the republican ran in 2019, matt bevin, produced his biggest plural plurality in the state. camryn is winning the state by two to, one but here's the key, andy beshear is sitting at 32% was just about all the vote in in pulaski county. what did any beshear get in this county a 2019? he got 28%. that's the kind of improvement we are seeing for beshear in red county after it county as they reach this 95% threshold we're looking at. a much bigger county right here in the cincinnati suburb of boone county, where florence, kentucky's, about 96% of the vote, just about all of it is in. now again, this is a county that beshear lost in 2019, and daniel cameron, the republican, is going to win this county tonight. but beshear is sitting at 44%. what do you get 2019? 41%. so, again, not huge numbers, but it's a consistent pattern that is developing, where cameron, the republican, wanted to take the better numbers and improve on them and instead beshear is taking his numbers to move it up a few points, it seems, just about every county where we are seeing this level of vote return. the other thing that we are seeing is in some of these big population centers, core democratic areas, this is the second biggest population center in the state. fayette county, this is where the university of kentucky, the university of like second lexington, no question beshear is good when. this but we're inching up 90% of the vote. but here is sitting at 72%. you've got he got 66% in 2019. this number now has been leveled, close to 72% for a while. so he's getting, right now, potentially, a bigger share out of a gigantic county. look at the suburbs of lexington. scott county, 92% of the vote is in, about 54 and a half percent a vote for beshear, he was under 50 and 2019. that is just the pattern that we are seeing here in kentucky in county after county. so this is why it is close statewide, about 60% of the vote right now, there is a trend that really seems to be asserting itself here. it accounts for the decision desks decision to say that beshear is leading at this point. if you take a look north of kentucky, in ohio, polls closed about half an hour ago, and this map is lighting up right now, about one fifth of the vote is in ohio, issue one, put the right to an abortion in the state constitution would allow for restrictions -- about 22, 24 weeks. it's basically almost 65% yes on that right now. our declaration at the decision desk is that yes is leading, no surprise when she numbers like that. i think if you start to look at the pattern that's developing here, there was, if anybody remembers, a test vote in ohio this summer, opponents in issue one, anticipating this night, a question about this summer that would've raised the threshold for a constitutional amendment to 60%, and that went down in flames. what we are seeing in the counties so far are results that are very consistent with what we saw over the summer, when that is notable, that stands right out here, this is delaware county. this is directly north of franklin county where columbus is. franklin county is like a suburban bedroom county. it's a republican county. trump won this county by seven points. but over the summer, this county voted pretty strongly against changing that threshold, and look at this. 68.8% in the initial batch of votes and delaware voting yes on issue one. keep in mind, all of these initial batches in ohio are mail votes, early votes, there is good as it gets for issue one. but still, a heck of a starting point for issue one in a republican county, a population dense republican county. and again, the returns that we are seeing right now look pretty consistent with what we saw over the summer. >> steve, this is fascinating to me, particularly the idea that that summer vote was a proxy vote. you trick voters, where they tend to sniff it out. oh we were just doing the threshold. but what happened was, everybody kind of understood by the time election was over, even though was august, very weird time to be having an election, that this was a kind of proxy vote for this abortion vote that's gonna happen. and it wouldn't be surprising, i think, if we saw similar numbers between those two votes when all is said and done. >> it was, but the marriage in this summer was 50, so no over the summer is the equivalent of yes tonight. and it was no 57, yes 43 over the summer. so if it ends up yes 57, no 43 or something like that, from what you are looking at right now it's certainly in question. >> steve kornacki, great to have you back. thank you very much. we'll check in with you a little bit. clearance casket, former democratic senator of new jersey, joins me. now let's start on kentucky. i would say it's not as a conservative state's kentucky. >> pretty similar at this point. >> in the ballpark. >> the margins were similar for trump in missouri. >> a very impressive showing. >> yeah. >> and why democratic governor in that state? >> here's what's important about kentucky. we've had these initiatives on the ballot, but it has been the issue of abortion people have been voting on, not candidates. and what beshear did is, he made the rape and incest exception primarily his campaign, with discipline for the last month of this campaign, including powerful ad, including a young woman who had been raped by her stepfather when she was 12 years old. what this shows you is that this issue, the extreme position they have taken on this issue in my state and many other places in the republican party, including the new speaker of the house, by the way, who is very extreme on this issue, that is not going to work for candidates, and democrats need to pay attention to what andy beshear did here and use it against the republicans, because they have lost the thread on this in terms of the american people. >> there's two other things that i think are interesting. the other thing they came after beshear on was trans medical care. there are republican legislature passed a ban on trans medical. but she, or to his credit, vetoed it. he said, is a christian and as a parent, i think this interferes with parental rights. they tried to utterly knock his head off on this. we have now seen this over and over again. we saw the racism the race in michigan, they think, republicans keep thinking this is their key issue, and we've got another tally on the board that shows it is not doing what they think it is. >> that's exactly right. and by the way, it is interesting to me that the republicans think these cultural issues are going to win for them. as it turns out, voters in the states, like mine, they don't want government involved in this stop. they don't want it in their bedroom, they don't wanna telling parents what to do with their own children. so i do think there is consistency. >> yes. >> among these voters that they don't want government in an all. >> i thought the beshear argument, which from a parental rights standpoint, if you don't want to do it, that's when you. but don't tell me. the third thing i find fascinating here, the pertains to a man is served alongside, which is mitch mcconnell. mitch mcconnell likes to complain about candidate quality. as the problem for republicans. the last guy, matt, banning was not a mitch mcconnell guy. he hated michigan. he was the ultimate party crasher, tea party guy, totally laurie loggerheads. this guy, daniel cameron, is mitch mcconnell's dude. >> he. is >> he is knighted by mitch mcconnell. and he just got his butt kicked tonight. >> it looks like he's gonna get his butt kicked tonight in a state that mitch mcconnell likes to be proudly saying that he is still has his fingers on all the levers of power. so it is a wake up call, i think, for the republican party, but it needs to be a wake up call for the democrat party. everybody needs to quit getting panicky about next year. the front the middle's as a democrat it's under biden. side we have the ability to take the election next year like we haven't taken an election long time. >> i'm glad you brought that up. you've been in elections where you can feel the environment. you can feel if you're interacting reactionary mood. you can feel a disk peptic and disgruntled electorate. if everything is going as poorly, as people say things are going, particularly economically, i don't think what you would predict is that the incumbent democratic governor in the state of kentucky, who is running is the incumbent, you don't like the high prices, is gonna win the race. there's a bit of a mismatch between that, what people tell pollsters, and a democratic governor in kentucky winding widening's marriage information 29 in 2023, we've got a democrat at the white house. >> the bottom line, is republicans while put the government in your bedroom. they also want to say it's okay to slaughter children with military style weapons, sitting harmlessly in a school. these mass shootings, along with the abortion issue, that is our culture war for the democratic party, and we would be fools not to pick it up and run with it. and i get it that dumb trump's a problem. we need to go after him big time for all of those reasons. but those are two things that we can campaign on. and i think they'll be very effective especially in suburban america. >> claire mccaskill, great to have you here. we're gonna keep checking in on the latest results. they want to get ahead of anything. we have to close to call beshear. you saw that county by county. but first, the performance of the republican presidential front runner in court, and what it portends for his criminal trials next year. we'll be right back. be right back. to work from home, so that means lots of video calls. i see myself more and i definitely see those deeper lines. i'm still kim and i got botox® cosmetic. i wanted to keep the expressions that i would normally have, you know, you're on camera and the only person they can look at is you. i was really happy with the results. i look like me just with fewer lines. botox® cosmetic is fda approved to temporarily make frown lines, crow's feet, and forehead lines look 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tell trump's lawyer, i beseech you to control him. do you understand that? there are also more substantive moments, when trump admitted he had signed a document making representations about his financial situation, quote, in order to induce lender to accept this guarantee and to enter into the credit agreement. msnbc legal analyst katie phang said this quote, a critical admission by trump as he admits that the intend to make these financial representatives representation was to convince lenders to lend him money. i think we've reached a phase of this trial where can best be compared to the infamous chicago seven trial and 1969, where the anti-war protesters on trial decided to turn the whole thing into a circus and put the system on trial. basically, the term that donald trump and his attorneys made here, at the risk of enraging the judge will be the lone one deciding trump's culpability in this case. more importantly, every judge who was a trump trial coming up to be watching this. it looks like a dress rehearsal to polarize opinion about the legitimacy of the proceedings themselves rather than try to win the case within the confines of the court. msnbc legal analyst lisa moore rubin was in the court for that performance. she joins me. now that scan to, you that there is a tactical decision? this giveaways to look at this. you can't restrain trump and he has no self control. i don't quite by that. the other is that basically this is a tactic now. trying to sort of bait the judge into saying something that convert this into a kind of a polarized prism of, this judges out to get me, and that's really what they are up to? >> it can be both. i think there are moments when trump showed he can be disciplined. and partially he showed that when he started to echo things that i know his lawyers have told him. when he talked about what you can expect during the rest of this trial, which witnesses are going to come, which important bankers will be there, which expert witnesses, or he tried to pull out of his pocket some preposterously the language of the disclaimer statement that appeared on each of his statements of financial condition. he's clearly fluent in some of what's going on in this case, and yet i'm not sure that his explosions and the judge, and kevin wallace is a lawyer at the a.g.'s office, or even it james herself, are as calculated as people think. >> that's interesting. so they read more organic to you? >> they felt more organic because the tone was so different. when i talked about before that as a water in the courtroom, when trump goes out to the hallway and he does those little impromptu press conferences, for for security reasons, those of the courtroom can't witness that. when i saw a video this conferences yesterday, i saw a trump who was remarkably more cool and collected in his tone, even if the content of what he was saying was vitriolic, then he was when he lost his cool towards judge and gordon, tish james, kevin wallace, when he said you're a disgrace, you called me a fraud, you don't even know me, and all of that felt very personal and very impulsive. >> so that's interesting. that feels like a person not making it tactical. this is not abby hoffman injury reuben. this is somebody who is actually struggling to control himself. there clearly is a pesos here, which is that he is obsessed with being, people thinking he has less money than he does, basically. i guess the way of viewing his way of seeing this is that it stresses him out for people to think he's poor. >> absolutely. at one point they were talking about whether his brand value was incorporated in his financial statements. he insisted that gap allows you to do that, for your viewers, it does not. at one point he said my brand value got me elected president to the united states. so he is well aware that the value of the trump brand is part of his lure. it's not just as control control over his empire, but a political dynasty as well. >> what do you think about how his performance was as a witness, independent of the histrionics, in terms of what it meant for inferences on the facts that the fact finder in the case of -- ? it >> was disastrous. >> it was disastrous. one of the >> one of the things i'm trying to emphasize to folks is it's not just the remedial phase of the trial. this is about six more counts that the attorney didn't ask for summary judgment on. all of which necessitate proof of intent. on that, the attorney general got lots of helpful admissions. he admitted he reviewed and approved financial statements and occasionally suggested change changes. he agreed he was responsible for the fair presentation. he agreed he talked to jeff mcconney and allen weisselberg, the two top financial officials, at the trump officials organization about this. he agreed at one point that he intended to forever forfeit the right to use mar-a-lago is anything but a private club. that actually is part of a legally binding confident. >> he signed a document. >> in the next breath he insisted, and i have the right to change that only point in time. so the rules do not apply. that same trump ethos definitely translated into the proceeding. but he nonetheless made a number of really damaging admissions. if you can see beyond the ten protons are. >> do you think the judge does? >> i think the judge absolutely does. i think the judge is facile with unfamiliar with the documents than trump himself is. and so trump's insistence, you won't let me read from this document, you're not letting me complete the record, that phrase, the disclaimer statement, is in every single one of financial statements, as part of the record already. >> exhausting. i'm exhausted and and the judge's behalf, listening to you or accounting this [laughter] . >> i have no idea what to say. >> i'm glad you are there for us. all right, it's still electrolyte. as it was just a few minutes ago. we're gonna turn back to one of the big races we are following, which is kentucky, a state the winter don trump by 26 points in 2020. it has a democratic governor, andy musher, who's the incumbent. he's very popular, and he's looking to hold onto his seat in reelection. steve kornacki back at the board. >> we basically have to shoot thirds of the vote statewide. they're the tally of slipped about four points from last time we checked. but we are characterizing this as a beshear lead. one of the things to note here is that the biggest county by fire in the state, almost 20% of the vote, is gonna come out of jefferson county. as for louisville, you only have a third of the vote in there. so there's a big trench vote to come from bashir. and there is something we talked about earlier, the pattern of counties is to get close to or hit 100 percent of the vote. one area to look at are these three counties that are in suburban cincinnati. together they make about 10% of the vote that is cast statewide. we're getting close to all the votes right there. the question is, as you look at the full returns, it's beshear doing better or worse than he did in 2019? he won by this much in 2019. if he's consistently doing better, that's good news for him. take a look at these three counties. 96% in boone county. beshear is going to lose it, but he's at 44%. he got 41 in 2019. next door to covington. canton county. bashir, 92% of the voters in. but here is it almost 53%. what did we he get here in 2019? 49%. one, further campbell county. we basically have all of campbell county in right now. beshear is going to win it. he won it in 2019, but he's going to win it with about 54%. he got 51% in 2019. >> there you go. >> this is just a very consistent pattern of two, three, four point improvement county after county for any beshear in kentucky. that's why he's considered a leader buyer decision desk right now. >> let me ask you a question about other folks running statewide in kentucky. one of the things we saw, and it's not like cameron is a trump guy, he's not a trump dude, he comes out of the camera the mcconnell machine. we see different candidates performing a different levels. particularly in the midterms, very maga candidates underperforming less mark identified characters. it's interesting, the secretary of state michael adams, who gained some notoriety for very strongly rejecting the stolen election in 2020, is considerably outperforming, as of now, at least, daniel cameron. he's running is an incumbent, both interesting, he seems to be doing better than daniel cameron. >> we've projected him the winner. yeah. we projected that michael adams will get reelected is a secretary of state again, about two thirds of the vote in, and he's leading his democratic challenger by 22, 23 points right now. so yeah, he's performing the best in these three statewide races. you can take a look at the attorney generals race. this is the job that the daniel cameron is against for governor. russell coleman, former -- he's winning by a healthy marriage in here as well in this race, but yes, michael adams, next secretary of state, doing even better than coleman, and certainly better than cameron, who is struggling right now in his race against bashir. as you mentioned, there was that primary that michael adams survived earlier this year. he had two opponents, kind of from the right. airing all sorts of grievances and claims about the 2020 election that abby adams was pretty forthright and announcing. and i think he could make a strong case here, looking at this, that that kind of posture made him potentially vulnerable in republican primary. it didn't turn out to be that vulnerable. it made him more palatable to middle of the road people in kentucky. >> for people in this era that have taken a stand, have beaten back the primary challenge, often we've seen their general election performance essentially kind of improve because of it. and adams is an interesting case here as well. steve kornacki, we'll see 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one month ago. just one example of hundreds, and israeli father shared that one month after he last spoke to his wife and three children who were kidnapped by hamas. >> but now it has been so long i am starting to lose it again. and it has been 31 days, and that's too long to be with all my kids and my wife and for them to be held captive in a foreign place, underground, in a small room, i don't know what situation they are in, health wise. are they being fed, taking care of? i can only hope that everything is all right. >> it has also been one month since israeli military began military operations in gaza in response to that hamas attack. according to satellite data, at least a quarter of all buildings in gaza have been damaged, destroyed. where the one and a half people have been displaced under population of 2 million. state department estimates there are still several hundred americans in gaza trapped me. gaza ministry of health, part of the hamas-run government, says 10,000 people 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before the war. and she for hospital, the surgical hospital, is short on things to check oxygen, the oximeters, ivs, things like that. and that was before the war started. >> what wise the trajectory like once the war started? before you get to medical care, just the sort of basic conditions of the things that people need daily, bread, water, electricity, things like that? >> right, so they cut off electricity and so only, most places have generators, but without fuel they can't run the generators. solar can only do so much. recharge of, fonville it can't really do a lot of things as far as electric, electricity needs. so gazans are used to not having electricity all day. when i first arrived, they're always on a rolling blackout, and so at that point it was four hours on, four hours of. so they're not used to having it there. they have accommodated for that. without the fuel, without any electricity to charge batteries, they run off of during the blackout times, then they really were in the dark, literally. they also, city 5% of gazans depend on humanitarian aid all the time for their food. they have no surface water, and aqua for that they pour water from is very depleted and the water coming from the tap is salty and doesn't meet the w.h.o. requirements for water. so to cut of water and food really plummets people into starvation, lack of sanitation, lack of drinkable water. >> what were the conditions like in the pediatric hospital as the air campaign picked up and obviously there's tremendous disruption and a lot of folks who were injured, die early injured? >> right, so, i around arrived on gaza on friday. the worse started saturday. i never did, was able to do any clinical work. i had to be sequestered off in safe places. so i did visit the hospitals. so i can only imagine, knowing that they were barely making it in good times before the war, that they would be so overwhelmed. >> what is your impression of where the impact of the last few weeks has been like for a gazans? obviously we have seen the images. with the statistics it has been, in terms of the metric tons of explosions, bombs it had been dropped, but just what you saw? >> right, so i was in some u.n. camps. three of them over the course of the weeks that i was there. and adjacent to us, and with, us where the gazans who internally displaced gazans. some of these u.n. facilities are not made to be camps. they don't have toilets. they don't have a lot of water. there are hoses and things. they don't have ways to dispense food or food to dispense. so these people were arriving with nothing and with only maybe some tap water, with maybe one toilet for four or 600 people. one camp just arriving by the thousands and tried to make sure makeshift places using wood pallets, using bricks they found, and just trying to find some shelter for their families, with whatever they found around. then they were going to have to try to get food, which became more difficult as israel told everybody to migrate south. the grocery stores in the south ran out of food. i know we had to depend on our palestinian staff to drive to the north of gaza city, go to several grocery stores to get food for the 50 of us humanitarian workers. so other people don't have access to that privilege. >> doctor barbara zind, who was in gaza, now back in grand junction, colorado. we just got some big news out of kentucky. steve kornacki is still at the big board. steve, what's the latest? >> our decision desk has made it official, and they're comfortable declaring that anybody, or the democratic incumbent governor of kentucky has been reelected, that he will defeat his republican challenger in the state. sitting attorney general daniel cameron. we will be there is no surprise if you've been watching all night we've seen county after county in kentucky with beshear running ahead of how he ran in 2019. not by leaps and bounds, but by several points, just county after county, the pattern very clear at this point, this is a state he won by less than 1.4 years ago. he had a very high approval rating, very high personal favor ability rating. the cameron campaign republicans have been hoping to attach beshear to joe biden, to the national democratic party, both of which remain very unpopular in kentucky, but it looks like that personal popularity in that high job approval rating for beshear one out. he is going to get a second term. he is the second brashear to get a second term as governor of kentucky. his father was a two term governor as well. not that long ago. just again, we can show you, we've got a big batch of votes from louisville, jefferson county, core democrat county. a big tranche of beshear votes came in just a little while ago. you look around the lexington area you really see it, though, the improvement from beshear over last time around. he's running six points better in fayette county, second biggest county in the state, then he did four years ago. you look up in scat county, he's running 55% basically. he was under 54 years ago. take a look at state capital. franklin county, where frankfort is, 61% of the vote four years ago, now he's at 68 and a half with almost 95% in. that has been the pattern with big democratic vote producing counties. he's getting more votes out a republican counties. he still losing them but not losing them by as much. it all adds up to what's gonna be a victory for andy beshear in his second term in the governor's mansion. >> one of the things and lead up to the race, there wasn't a ton of polling, but to the extent we had polling and we looked at approval ratings, this was, my understanding of folks in kentucky politics, the expectation at least was that heading into night she was the favorite, that he won a pretty good campaign, that he was a fairly popular incumbent. is that generally your sense? >> i would say yeah, on till a week ago, roughly. or a little bit less. there was a poll that came out at the end of last week that had the race tied. it was a second poll that came out yesterday that had it at two points and there was a thought that was possible cameron changed tactics late in this campaign. he had been running and aggressive anti beshear campaign with name-calling involved and towards the end of the campaign the camryn vote shift in tactics. he puts an ad upward talk to the camera, you know, any mushy beshear is not a bad guy. but we just have some disagreements. it's a very different tone. so there was a question, we saw that polling in the final days, if that shift in tone, coupled with the antipathy of kentucky voters toward biden, towards the national democratic party, if that would add up to really kick here for cameron to close the gap. it may end up closing the gap to the degree that he doesn't lose this thing by what it looked a month ago he was gonna lose it by, but it certainly wasn't enough to get him over the top. >> i saw some of the, as i saw the campaign, there really was a focus on joe biden. there really was. andy beshear is google by joe biden's body. that was an essential thrust, which does not appear to have been effective, at least enough to get him over the hump. steve quirky, thank you very much. don't go anywhere, because we're gonna talk about ohio, with adobe statewide race. more results coming in on that. the fight for preserving abortion rights among the biggest states in the union, when we come back. when we come back. ♪it's time to use m y voice,♪ ♪i've got a choice, more than one answer.♪ ♪i sat down with my doc.♪ we had a talk. ♪knew just what to say.♪ ♪i asked for cologuard and did it my way.♪ cologuard is a one-of-a kind way to screen for colon cancer that's effective and non-invasive. it's for people 45 plus at average risk, not high risk. false positive and negative results may occur. ask your provider for cologuard. ♪i did it my way!♪ the chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam, who make- everyday products, 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minaki have been keeping an eye on. this steve, would we get so? fire >> we've got our decision desk saying yes on issue one, leading right now. this is similar now to what we have been trying to do with kentucky to interpret the vote. we are looking for counties, we're where just about all the voters in. what are we comparing it? two were comparing it to a vote they had this summer. opponents of issue one we're trying to head off this night by putting on the ballot this summer to raise the threshold for a constitutional amendment, which is what this is, from a simple majority to 60%. so a lot of people were saying, i test vote for what we're going to get tonight. that lost this summer. that idea of raising the threshold, it lost by 57 43% margin. so a lot of people tonight are saying that no this summer might be the equivalent of voting yes tonight. so we're comparing, in the counties, as they complete their vote, i have a guess how the yes no vote tonight compares to the no vote this summer. if it's similar, or if it's higher, it's very good news for the yes side. we have seven counties now in ohio with more than 95% of the voters in. remember, no carried overwhelmingly this summer. one it example is sandusky county. 95% of those. in issue one is failing here tonight, 54.7, 45.3, so what was the no vote this summer? it was 44. so this is actually a better score for issue one then they got this summer, if you follow. >> and that was up 17 point victory this summer. >> into the 60s, a county like this, and we are seeing it's a pattern everywhere. pike county down in the southern part of the state, again, no getting 60, yes getting 40. what did not get this summer? it got 38. so this is, again, seven counties right now. yes is running above what they know did this summer in four of them and below in three of them, but in all cases it is within about two points. and so this really is looking like that summer vote was a test vote for tonight, and we are on course, potentially, to land with the result that's very similar. >> we should note, as well, this is a state, obviously, that not only does donald trump carry comfortably, it's a state that currently, if i'm not mistaken, i think sheriff brown, the u.s. center senator up in 2024 is the only state like a republican, sorry, obviously democrat, it's also a state where the secretary of state really tried hard. this was a pet issue if he is, to get this outcome. he's a very antiabortion guy. it was his brain child to put that august thing on the ballot. there was controversy over the fact that he characterized the language on the actual ballot language as opposed to what exactly it was. so very interesting that we are coming out where we are. we're gonna go to david pepper, former chair of the ohio democratic party, author of saving democracy, a users manual for every american. david, you've been honest from the beginning, you're in ohio when, i had you on this program almost in this time period on that august night when that test vote for this cockamamie plan to try to get around the will of the voters was tested out and went down in flames. how are you feeling right now? i feel pretty good >> i would have thought it would've gotten a lot closer with this than issue one. there were some people who voted yes in august who i thought, i'm sorry, no in august, who i thought would vote no now. so steve's analysis, and we're doing the same thing here, we're seeing some counties doing better than august in some counties -- it does seem like it's on a good track. as you said, it's not just a straight up or down to campaign fighting. this is the ohio voters seeing a city -- state we read the language of the amendment for basically the no side. they literally replaced words like fetus with unborn child. they changed the whole meaning. this is a yearlong effort to basically subvert majority rule. if we're able in the end, knock on wood, to get through this, not only is there a -- freedom in her eye, or which was always something that pulled a majority. like an almost every state in the country, somewhere in the mid to high 50s, people support roe v. wade and when you try in the right to choose. this turned vote tonight will not only confirm that but will also be the ohio voters seeing through a yearlong effort to basically use the weaponized government, whether it was trying to change the rules in august, re-write the ballot language, come up with all sorts of other disinformation, and my hope, is and my hope that is we're seeing this, ohio voters are saying not only are disorder we support the right, choose no more that stuff. we're tired of having our own governments attack democracy. we see through it, and if this ends up being as strong as it looks, it's a rejection of all of those terrible tactics, which represent the new form of how this fareed campaigning. it's no longer about a campaign lying. it's about the government itself. it's been a disturbing year. if this ends up the right way i think it's a huge reprieve for a woman's right to choose but also for democracy itself. >> i want to zero in on something you said. this is one of the dazzling details that come out of this. franklin rose, this is been his pet project. am i correct, that the original proposal was to put the actual language of the amendment? here's the language that we will amend the constitution with, on the ballot for voters. this is the actual text of the amendment. and he decided to, instead, take the language and characterize it in the fashion that he lied to more, and that was what voters voted on? >> yes. so there is a formal process. if the amendment is really long, they put a shorter summary on the ballot. but in this case, the summary is longer than the amendment. they edwards. so they weren't summarizing it. it's longer. we have a longer summary. that's a red flag. the added words, they made it longer, and they basically flipped a lot of clauses upside down to get the exact of assad impression of what this amendment did. what i love about tonight, is people saw through it. they were going in voting yes, it was orwellian manipulation of the ballot. this is a huge win for the whole reproductive freedom movement in the country, just like kansas, like michigan, like other states. and i think we'll see more going forward. but it's also a rejection of this really disturbing trend, where they are weaponizing responsibilities they have with government. they're not doing the job this most to do. they're literally weaponizing it to help their side. this couldn't be more wrong, anytime, little on the stain age. >> david pepper, in ohio, thank you very much. the political experience for democrats in the biden era so far has been essentially extended periods of intense, almost clinical anxiety about bad polling, occasionally. punctuated by actual election nights that are surprisingly positive for the same party, then to go back to the same cycle. we've had a sort of speed run of that experience in the last three days. that is all in on this night. our coverage continues with alex wagner. good evening alex. >> listen, man, the specter of 2016 looms large and may do so for decades to come. >> then i did well, abortion rights in ohio look on chat, what about -- >> listen,