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emerging, horrendous hamas attack and the taking of hostages, but now that the united states is working with israel and trying to assist in locating hamas and understanding hamas' structure, we understand they have a gap in capabilities. >> that's republican congressman mike turner of ohio with a candid assessment of israel's strategy. it's a sign more hostages could soon be freed. we'll have the latest out of the middle east just ahead. plus a preview of an important hearing today in washington that could determine what donald trump can say about his federal election interference case. and also ahead, we'll remember the life and legacy of former first lady rosalind carter. ♪♪ good morning and welcome to "way too early" on this monday morning. i eemg jonathan lemire. thank you for joining us for this short thanksgiving week. with less than one year to go until the 2024 presidential election, for the first time ever new np be c news polling shows donald trump leading job. 46% to 44% in a hypothetical general election matchup that we should note is very much within the poll's margin of error. since 2019 when biden was a presidential candidate, no nbc news poll had ever shown him losing to trump before. that's four years worth of data now. this survey shows trump -- biden leading trump as recently as july, but in september, trump tomb over. the reason for biden's overall struggles, a drop in support with young voters. after winning that group by more than 20 points in 2020, this latest poll shows young voters actually prefer trump to biden now, 46% to 42%. this comes as 70% of 18- to 29-year-olds say they disapprove of biden's handling of the israel/hamas war. hard to management, though, when it comes to actually casting their ballot, young voters would break for trump. switching gears, the d.c. court will hear arguments on donald trump's gag order on the election interference case. the gag order prevents the former president from publicly discussing court personnel, potential witnesses, and the special counsel and his staff. prosecutors say attacks from trump could be dangerous while the trump team says the gag order is a violation of his first amendment rights. this comes just days after judge chutkan ruled against trump's legal team's request to remove references to the january 6th insuection from his indictment. nbc news reports trump sought to have certain passages struck from the indictment, which was returned in august, on the grounds they would inflame the jury, create bias against him, even though he has not been charged with any crimes of violence. judge chutkan pointed out that jurors do not get an actual copy of the indictment and said the jury selection process would remove anyone who may already have read it. elsewhere in washington, republican senator tommy tuberville just gave a reason as to why he's blocking hundreds of military promotions. hear what he believes the women in the military may try to do under the pentagon's current abortion policy. >> it's been rape, incest, or health of the mom, but we asked in one of our hearings, what -- you know, what month are you going to go by for the abortion? they couldn't tell us if it was abortion after birth. i mean these people can't communicate. they have no clue what they're doing. they're just throwing something out there. >> the senator said there was a concern about abortion after birth. we move on now. deputy national security adviser jon finer appeared on "meet the press" over the weekend. he was asked repeatedly whether he believed israel was following international law in its war against hamas. take a look. >> the qatari prime minister said today that israel's actions at al shifa hospital are a, quote, crime. does the white house stand by israel's assessments that hamas is headquartered underneath the hospital, and are you confident that israel is following international law? >> our intelligence, u.s. intelligence, not just israeli intelligence, hamas has used al shifa in an unconscionable way in the planning of executionist attacks and continues to do so. that does not in our view mean that israel should conduct air strikes on the hospital or ground assaults on the hospital. we've been equally clear about that. but hamas has put these people in severe jeopardy by the way in which it's conducting this war. >> are you confident israel is following international law, jon, just yes or no there? >> we're confident that it needs to when we've seen incidents raised. >> jon, let me just -- you're saying that israel -- >> i don't want to play judge and jury on this question. >> let me follow up quickly. you said israel needs to follow international law. are you confident they are following international law? >> what i can say is it's not our position, certainly my position as a policy maker to play real-time judge and jury on the question of any particular incident. when we see things that concern us, we raise them. we have done that during the course of this conflict. we will continue do that. again, just to restate it, it's our position that all countries, including israel need to hold itself to that standard. the united states boasted its willingness to hold to that standard. that is the challenge. over the weekend israel released some video that does purport to show hamas is using that hospital. it's unverified at this point. certainly you heard. meanwhile, sad new this morning. the world is mourning the loss of former first lady rose a lind carter who died at her home after entering hospice care just on friday. she had been living with dementia and months of declining health and was 96 years old. she drew particular praise for her keen electoral instincts, down-to-earth appeal, and serving in the white house including acts an as envoy to latin american. she also championed mental health care and devoted herself to several social causes. in a statement, her former husband former president jimmy carter praised his wife as an equal partner who gave guidance, love, and support. they were married for 77 years, longer than any other first couple in history. after leaving the white house, the carters earned admiration for their humanitarian projects and were closely linked with happen at the for humanity. next monday the former first lady will lie in repose at the jimmy carter presidential library museum in atlanta. former president carter, who is 99 years old, is also currently receiving hospice care at their home. joining us now, washington correspondent for the atlanta journal constitution, tia mitchell. tia, great to see you this morning. of course, the carters loomed so large in georgia for so long, and their legacy, of course, also goes throughout the nation. tell us a little bit about the impact of first lady carter. >> yeah. it's hard to describe quickly because their impact has lasted for decades. she's not just the former first laid of the united states. she is the former first lade, her husband serving as governor. both of them were raised in rural south georgia. the fact that they always returned home to plains i think really speaks volumes about first lady carter and her impact. they never forgot where they were from, they never strayed far from where they were from, despite going all the way to the white house. they returned back to their humble roots, and that's where they always kind of sensored their sensibiliies as well as their work. >> we'll have much more about her impact, creating the office of first lady, serving as a real key political adviser to her husband. but tell us a little bit more about her life there, particularly post-presidency. the carters have been widely praised as being the most active post-presidential first couple. they've done so much good for so many people. tell us about it. >> so much good across the globe. the carters were a package deal. carter made that clear that his wife was an equal parter. things like eradicating the guinea worm, which really isn't familiar to the people in the u.s., but it was a big deal particularly in the continent of africa, and it went from millions of cases to fewer than 20 mainly because of the work of the carter center. mental health is another thing. we talk about mental health in a way that is very -- we recognize it today as just as important as physical health. a lot of that is due to the work and advocacy of first lady carter because that's not the way we talked about mental health decades ago. she had a family member who she says was institutionalized and really resonated with her and informed her work. things like immunizations for children, equal rights for women, these are all things she's had an impact over the years, but particularly after leaving the white house. >> a remarkable legacy. we'll revisit throughout much of the morning here. washington correspondent for the "atlanta journal-constitution," tia mitchell, thank you for starting us off this morning. we really appreciate it here. still ahead on "way too early," an update on preventing president trump from being on the ballot next year. plus an election in south america, that could dramatically swing one of its largest countries to the far right. those stories and a check on sports and weather when we come right back. t back my most important kitchen tool? my brain. so i choose new neuriva ultra. unlike some others, it supports 7 brain health indicators, including mental alertness from one serving. to help keep me sharp. try new neuriva ultra. think bigger. hey, you should try new robitussin honey medi-soothers for long-lasting cough and sore throat relief. try new robitussin lozenges with real medicine and find your voice. you know? we really need to work on your people skills. the power goes out and we still have wifi to do our homework.. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. welcome back. let's turn now to some of the morning's other headlines. donald trump was back on the campaign trail. he was in iowa on saturday where he got an unusual introduction from a state lawmaker. in fort dodge, republican representative mike sexton used his time on stage to workshop a new impression. take a look. >> the dark side is very powerful in biden. crooked is he. your country, he does not care. the force is strong in trump. help him you can. caucus for him you shall. for without his victory, all hope is lost. >> what are we doing there? it's like that state lawmaker was actually doing an impression of steve carell doing an impression of yoda. it was terrible. it received less than positive response including mark hamill. he tweeted this. losing my lunch i am. donald trump will appear on the ballot. that provision in the constitution states that no elected official who has previously taken an oath of office and then engages in insurrection can hold office again. nbc news reports it this way. in her ruling the judge found that trump did engage in an insurrection by inciting a riot on january 6th but he's not subject to section 3 because he's not, quote, an officer of the united states. she pointed to the federal provisions listed in the clause, adding, that it appears to the court that for whatever reason the section did not include a person who had only taken a presidential oath. the trump campaign responded to the ruling this way. these cases represent the most cynical and blatant political attempts to interfere with the upcoming presidential election by desperate democrats. courts in minnesota and michigan also rejected similar attempts to disqualify trump earlier this month. the group citizens for responsibility and ethics in washington, which filed the lawsuit in colorado, they say they will appeal. let's turn to overseas now. argentina has elected a right-wing populist to lead that country. in a decisive presidential runoff presidential election yelled, javier milei won 55% of the vote. the second place canned won 45%. the president-elect spoke of starting the, quote, reconstruction of argentina. the ap calls him this, a self-described an arco capitalist who has been compared to former u.s. president donald trump. his screeds resonate with particularlyion mention. the flag is a symbol of their movement. former president trump posted this image last night on social media, showing the new argentinian president with a -- milei with the caption make ar ten tina great again. still ahead, we'll turn to sports with nfl highlights including a victory by a franchise that has not been this good since jo john f. kennedy was president. you'll probably guess who that is. plus a look at the forecast next. is plus a look at the forecast next relief, try vicks vapocool drops. with two times more menthol 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still going. touchdown, buffalo. >> george kittle's turned into that security blanket form. >> he's got him. he takes it the distance. >> giants, 48. howell under pressure, and then he will throw. isaiah simmons with the interception down the sideline. simmons into the end zone, touchdown, giants. here's reed. and reed got a block and a touchdown! >> stroud on first down. he was looking downfield. he's going downfield toward the end zone. a leap and grab, he's got it. >> wilson on the move. tagovailoa. nice catch. kiss him good-bye. >> here's bryce young. he's got time. the throw is intersected. looking for another pick six and he's got it. >> fields with hutchinson coming. that ball is out! he kicks it. in back of the end zone. two points for detroit with 21 seconds left. those were some of the biggest plays from across the nfl yesterday including that game-clinching safety, the lions' comeback win against the chicago bears. they have an 8-2 record for the first time since 1962. let's go to denver now and the broncos hosting the minnesota vikings on "sunday night football." wilson drove the broncos gained by that terrific touchdown grab. that gave sutton the first lead since the start of the game. the denver's defense didn't allow the vikings on their side of the field in the final minute and halted minnesota's five-game win streak with a 21-20 victory. the broncos, given up for dead not too long ago, now own the league's longest active lead with four straight weeks. and the week 11 finale is tonight, frankly,he game of the year. philadelphia eagles travel to kansas city to play the chiefs. it's a super bowl rematch. we should note for all of those wondering, taylor swift not expected to be in attendance. she has a rescheduled concert in brazil. let's go to michelle grossman for a look at the holiday week forecast. how is it looking? >> not too great. both coasts are look good, we'll point that out first. and then there could be travel impactsing major ones in st. louis, new orleans, dallas could see some slowdowns in the air and on the roads. denver and chicago as well. not great today, not great tomorrow, and this storm system will speed off quickly by wednesday. but this is what we're dealing with today. a big area of cold pressure. on the backside we're looking at snow in the rockies and the plains and we're looking for the chance of severe thunderstorms. we could see a tornado outbreak later on tonight. it's something we're going to to watch throughout the day. already watching heavy rain falling throughout the plains. you can see the brighter colors. that's where you see the heaviest rain falling. this is what i want to point out. we're looking at millions at risk. looking at the chance for a few tornadoes, winds gusting up to 75 miles an hour could see some hail, some locally heavy downpours as well especially where you see this orange area. that's where you're seeing the heaier orange. that's something we're watching tonight. >> thank you so much. good to see you. still ahead here on "way too early," we'll have an update on the georgia election interference case. fulton county's district attorney has requested a date for donald trump to stand trial. we'll go through the response of trump's legal team and the chances they'll be able to delay it. that's straight ahead. e to delay it that's straight ahead. - i'm a retired school counselor. 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great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. welcome back to "way too early." it is 5:30 a.m. here on the east coast, and it's 2:30 out west on this monday morning. i'm jonathan lemire. thanks for being with us. let's turn now to the trump legal front. the fulton county election interference case could go in august of next year. that date by fani willis in a new court filing date on friday. she ss this proposed trial date balances potential delays from defendant trump's other criminal trials. willis asked the judge to set a deadline for negotiatinglty pleas to be june 21st. you'll recall, of course, four codefendants have already entered guilty pleas. the trump team rponded immediately, filing a motion requesting a hearing to argue against the potential timeline and releasing a statement that reads in part this way, fani willis has, again, proven that her case is purely political, designed to interfere with president trump's re-election by demanding a trial date in the most vital time in president trump's winning campaign slated for just a couple of weeks after the republican national convention. joining us now, nbc news justice reporter ryan riley. ryan, good to see you this morning. so where do you suspect this goes from here? what's the likelihood that trump's team will be successful arguing against this timeline, which i will say does come a little more aggressively than many legal experts had predicted, who thought simply the sheer size of this case might push it to after the election? >> yeah. and, you know, the fact that this trial is going to take a very long time, in fact, several months. willis has said that this trial could go, if it starts in august, until early 2025, which would be quite a remarkable -- would be quite a remarkable sort of trajectory because then you would be getting into essentially when the inauguration would be if donald trump is elected or if donald trump is, you know, ultimately the republican presidential candidate. the complicating factor here, which makes this case a lot different than, say, the jack smith case here in d.c. or the case down in florida is that there are a multitude of other defendants involved, so it becomes a lot more complicated because they do have speedy trial dates of their own and they have a right to have this case heard earlier, so this case is theoretically supposed to go together because you don't want to have the same case presented over and over and over again because the allegation here is that everyone was conspiring together and sort of in this together, so you want to have the trial dates all at once. as you see on the screen there, there are a lot of defendants an eh one has their own rits. i don't know ultimately if this holds, but it's definitely more complicated than cases that involve just donald trump or a couple of other defendants. these are a lot of people who need speedy trial dates. >> let's turn to january 6th. the new house speaker mike johnson released a lot of january 6th footage over the last couple of days. tell us, a, why that happened, and, b, he amplified a clip and raised questions about whether a january 6th rioter is showing off a badge, seemingly another effort to try to muddle the narrative of that day. give us the story behind the story. >> yeah, so you know the reason that the videos came out is important here. video is good. transparency is good. but the reason that the house speaker put all this out is because they're trying to undermine this narrative or trying to undermine the facts of what happened on january 6th, and there's a lot of speculation about, oh, what -- was this person a federal agent, things of that nature. as you see on the screen there, one of the individuals who mike lehigh lighted, he said, i look forward to questions the fbi director and whether or not he was suggesting this person was a federal agent and flashing a badge. what he appears to be flashing is a vape pen. he was seen holding it earlier in his hand. most importantly, the person he's pointing out is in prison. he can't reach him to question him because he's serving four years behind bars. he stole a sign from nancy pelosi's office. it was a really significant photo that was taken with john lewis not long before his death, and then he -- you know, he also stole some other items including a wallet that was in a staffer's jacket inside of nancy pelosi's office. so this is a person who has been identified. it's not a fed. it's not some sort of secret undercover agent. in fact, this moment when he's, quote, unquote flashing a badge and has something in his hand, he's going out of the building. he's being forced out of the building by the police. a lot of people are going out. the facts don't match up with what people are suggesting here and it's one of those crazy conspiracy theories people need to think through and know the facts before they start irresponsibly put this nonsense out there. >> more and more to muddy the clarity. ryan's new book called "sedition hunters: how january 6th broke the justice system" is out and available now. be sure to pick it up. still ahead, we'll go live to cnbc for an early look at what's driving the holiday-shortened trading week. we'll be right back. holiday-shok we'll be right back. hey, you should try new robitussin honey medi-soothers for long-lasting cough and sore throat relief. try new robitussin lozenges with real medicine and find your voice. you know? we really need to work on your people skills. hey, you should try new robitussin honey medi-soothers for long-lasting cough and sore throat relief. try new robitussin lozenges with real medicine and find your voice. you know? we really need to work on your people skills. welcome back. time now for business, and for that let's bring in cnbc's joumanna bercetche who joining us live from london. joumanna, great to see you. the major averages are coming off their third straight winning performance. what can we expect in this short holiday week because of thanksgiving in the united states? >> that's right, jon. it's been quite the stunning recovery for wall street. it's now sitting at 2% away from the highs it reached this year, up 9% since late october, but not just the s&p. in november, dow has seen a 5.7% gain. the nasdaq has jumped almost 10% in the first few weeks of this month. we talk about the lower inflation trends and the gdp came in higher than expectations, all of that helping booster investor sentiment. coming off this week, it is a shortened week this week, as we said. we're going to watching out for the minutes. >> we'll be watching those black friday sales. >> a story that really, really blew up over the weekend is that former openai ceo sam altman will not return to the company despite efforts to negotiate his reinstatement. tell us why this matters. why is this so important? >> right. so many developments over the weekend. of course t major news that broke on friday is the board decided to oust the co-founder of openai, which is one of the most high-profile startups around and that he would not be returning. and there was a lot of speculation over the weekend that significant investors in openai would be clamoring to bring him back again, but this mannering the ceo of microsoft tweeted that sam altman and president of openai would be joining microsoft to lead a new ai research team. nadella also tweeted they remain committed to openai. it's worth mentioning that microsoft has a $13 billion stake in the company. that was an interesting development. as for open ai itself, twitch's co-founder would come on. at the same time, many employees have announced their intention to leave open ai and potentially join sam altman who officially will join microsoft. lots of moving parts. it's been quite a bit of a dramatic weekend. openai isn't an open capitalization, but the perception of how they handled it is pretty bleak. one other headline, opec is looking on whether to make additional cuts when the group meets in a couple of days. >> the oil prices continue to plummet despite everything we've seeing, despite the flaring tensions and the fact they've instituted all these supply cuts. right now brent is sitting at $82. a drop from october. it wasn't that long ago we were talking about $100. there's an opec meeting coming up. there's talk that saudi arabia, russia, and others will continue with their output cuts ofaround 5% of global demand on a daily basis. a lot of speculation into that big meeting later this week. >> we'll be providing coverage of that meeting when it occurs. cnbc's joumanna bercetche live from london. thank you as always. coming up here on "way too early," israel appears to be nearing a deal with hamas for a release of some hostages in exchange for a pause in fighting. we'll bring you the latest when "way too early" comes right back. when "way too early" comes right back (smelling) ew. gotta get rid of this. ♪tell me why♪ because it stinks. ♪have you tried downy rinse and refresh♪ it helps remove odors 3x better than detergent alone. it worked guys! ♪yeahhhh♪ downy rinse and refresh. new emergen-c crystals pop and fizz when you throw them back. and who doesn't love a good throwback? [sfx: video game] emergen-c crystals. the power goes out and we still have wifi to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. welcome back as we turn to the middle east. israel and hamas are close to securing a release of a dozen hostages. "the washington post" is reporting the release could happen within the next few days. accordgo the paper, under thems of the deal, both parties must agree to stop fighting forive days. during that time, 50 or more hostages would be released in smaller batches every 24 hours. it's believed at least 240 people are being held captive in gaza. it's not quite clear how many would be free under this deal. it's not clear how israel is agreeable. the white house says they're close, still talking, nothing official next. helping us to break this all down is editor at the "insider" our friend michael weiss who joins us in the studio looking quite dapper. good morning. good to see you. let's start there. your latest read, people you're talking to. how close is the deal, and if it were to be struck, what would it look like? >> i don't know how close it is, but the israeli cabinet is divided about this. they believe in getting everybody they can out now. it's a matter of priority. there's a believe that the mastermind of the october 7th massacre is deeply irrational, still exuberant about the success of the attack against israel, and if they can get him to agree to anything right now, they have to do it. others think, no, we need team, we have to wait, this shouldn't interfere with our ground operation, which you can see israel is surrounding al shifa hospital. they located one of the hamas tunnels they've been touting as being evidence of the facility that hamas is using for terrorist operations, et cetera. on the u.s. side, though, you've got the americans and qataries pushing for some kind of settlement -- not settlement but hostage release in exchange for a humanitarian pause for five days. in war, five days can mean the difference between operational success if not defeat and quite significant setbacks. right now there's this debate happening. >> israel released video they say from that hospital which shows hamas activity there including even moving hostages around. give us your sense of what the impact might be, but also how this might be playing in the region as there still continues to be more than a month on, real fears that the war can widen. it hasn't yet, but there's worry that that has. dissipated. >> for the most part, the israelis have found for many, many years as have the united states -- we're not relying on what the israelis tell us -- that hamas does use al shifa hospital as a command center, or they have done. they've probably now evacuated. and the entire city is a city atop another city, this structure of tunnels. they've located one tunnel 10 meters deep, 15 meters long, which they say hamas is using. i think the biggest issue here is iran, right? iran seems to be making moves to suggest that it has no interest in a direct military intervention. it doesn't want to go to war with the united states or israel directly. however, and here's where we get the interesting part, they're doing lots of other things, like allowing their shia militia groups in syria and iraq to fire drones and missiles at u.s. air bases. 50 attacks so far. the u.s. responded two or three times. in one instance, hitting an empty, or an ammunition and arms-filled warehouse. another instance, perhaps taking a command center and taking out operatives. there is a growing sense of discomfort in the pentagon, that the biden administration is not doing more to respond and retaliation, and with a we're doing now is not deterring iran from activating the proxies across the region. they're not hitting the israelis, it's the united states. >> that's the story line to follow in the days ahead. michael weiss, one of our stalwarts joining us this morning. talk to you soon, michael. up next on "way too early qs the ambitious, new timeline set by congress to pass aid bills for both israel but also ukraine. then, coming up on "morning joe," brand-new nbc polling shows that president biden trails donald trump among young voters. steve kornacki will be at the big board to break down why this key voting block might be be starting to peel away from the president. plus, a look back at the life and legacy of the late rosalynn carter. a devoted humanitarian and mental health advocate who transformed the very role of first lady. 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[coughing] copd hasn't been pretty. it's tough to breathe and tough to keep wondering if this is as good as it gets. but trelegy has shown me that there's still beauty and breath to be had. because with three medicines in one inhaler, trelegy keeps my airways open and prevents future flare-ups. and with one dose a day, trelegy improves lung function so i can breathe more freely all day and night. trelegy won't replace a rescue inhaler for sudden breathing problems. tell your doctor if you have a heart condition or high blood pressure before taking it. do not take trelegy more than prescribed. trelegy may increase your risk of thrush, pneumonia, and osteoporosis. call your doctor if worsened breathing, chest pain, mouth or tongue swelling, problems urinating, vision changes, or eye pain occur. ♪ what a wonderful world ♪ ask your doctor about once-daily trelegy for copd because breathing should be beautiful. have fun, sis! ♪♪ can't stop adding stuff to your cart? get the bank of america customized cash rewards card, choose the online shopping category and earn 3% cash back. you're looking at footage there of defense secretary lloyd austin, arriving this morning in a surprise visit to kyiv, ukraine. austin is scheduled for a series of meetings with seen your ukrainians leaders aimed at reinforcing u.s. support for the country's war effort against russia's ongoing invasion. meanwhile, with 15 days left on the legislative calendar this year, congress is racing to get new aid approved for both ukraine and israel. according to multiple people involved in the discussions, congressional leaders are hoping to pass a single aid bill before christmas, which would also include additional funding for the southern border and for u.s. efforts in the indo-pacific. earlier this month, the gop-led house passed an israel aid bill, but because it also included cuts to irs funding, it's considered to be dead on arrival in the democratic controlled senate. sources directly connected to the negotiations says there's great concern if an aid bill doesn't pass before the end of the year, it might not pass at all. come january, congress will again be forced to take up budget negotiations when the short-term funding bill passed a few days ago will expire. joining us now, communication strategist and former aide to house speakers ryan and boehner, brendan buck, an msnbc political analyst, we're happy to say. good to see you. give us your read of congress, particularly the republicans who have, frankly, turned up the volume in opposition to ukraine aid, though they want to push israel through. what chances do you give a deal getting struck here the next couple weeks and getting to the president's desk before new year's? >> first of all, it is remarkable they're calling christmas a speedy deadline. there was a time where we thought this was going to pass before they funded the government last week. this shows there's a lot of things working against them, two primary things i think are the biggest problem. one is the border. the president requested money for the border, and that's turned not just into a funding conversation but a policy conversation. republicans have said, if you want to have anything to do with the border, there needs to be a change in how we're processing migrants that come here. immigration policy is the single hardest thing we do. in my entire time in politics, we've never been able to get anything done. if that is a precondition for republicans to support anything for ukraine and israel, that's a huge, huge problem. secondly, if the senate is able to jam the house, i'm very concerned that mike johnson is going to be willing to take up this kind of bill. you know, the situation was supposed to be that the senate would be the grown-ups here. they were going to work together in a bipartisan way, get this done, and make the house eat it. mike johnson's speakership is already on thin ice. i'm a little concerned the normal dynamics that were going to make this happen are going to work this time around. >> quick follow-up on that. i know you touched on this in an msnbc.com piece you wrote in recent days. how short is speaker johnson's leash? >>. >> anything to do with funding, it's quite short. i guess it was last week, he passed a spending bill, the exact thing that cost kevin mccarthy his job. you already have the freedom caucus making demands about what is going to happen next time. what we have here is, doesn't really matter who the speaker is. the freedom caucus is going to be upset, and they're going to make threats. the argument i make in the op-ed is, at this point, after four speakers in the last eight years, it's probably not the speaker. it's the freedom caucus members themselves who are demanding things that are unrealistic. when you can't support anything that a democrat is going to support, when you can't vote for anything joe biden is going to sign, you have no chance of getting any legislative wins. that's the standard they've set. mike johnson is forced to live with it. >> today is president joe biden's birthday. happy 81st birthday, mr. president. we know poll after poll shows age is a real concern for voters about this president, but donald trump is only a few years younger. we see his wave of misstatements increase in recent days. what would your advice be to the white house to flip the age argument, to point out that, donald trump, were he to be elected president, he'd be the oldest man ever to take office? >> the challenge that the white house is dealing with is people don't see donald trump as as cold as joe biden. yes, they're similar age, but joe biden, frankly, comes across as older. that's what voters see. now, i think they need to lean into his experience and not just that he's been around a long time, but put him out there and embrace that he is old. there's no hiding it. they tend to, basically, keep him in a closet. that's not going to work. people see it for what it is. the longer this goes on, the more he pops up out of nowhere and seems older, it'll be bad for them. >> i have reporting on the divides among democrats, how to approach this issue. msnbc political analyst brendan buck, thank you, as always, for joining us this morning. thank you for getting up "way too early" on this monday morning. "morning joe" starts right now. our concern that president biden's chances for re-election could be damaged by his unwavering support for israel. the biggest problem for biden is that he is six years older than israel. [ laughter ] >> all right. good morning and welcome to "morning joe."

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