baier. breaking tonight we are following two major stories on this thanksgiving eve. israel has struck a deal with hamas militants who slaughtered 1200 people last month who exchanged prisoners for hostages and engaged in a cease-fire. complete coverage of that shortly. we begin here in the u.s. on the border between new york state and canada. two people are dead following a fiery crash of a vehicle near a check point at the american side of the rainbow bridge in niagara falls. authorities have ruled out a bomb as the cause of the explosion. but the investigation is still in its literal stages. correspondent david spunt starts us off tonight. good evening, david. >> hi, mike. quite a scare at the u.s.-canadian border after a car exploded killing both the driver and passenger instantly it. prompted both the border check point to close temporarily. authorities already on high alert, given what is going on in the middle east, sprung into action. let's go right to the video. it happened on the rainbow bridge on the u.s. side near niagara falls at 11:27 this morning. the carner made it into canada after witnesses say it went airborne and then hit a barrier and exploded. you see it in the video. >> when the vehicle went airborne, it was down by this signal hit concrete thing that goes angle. it was up in the air and started to turn sideways and then it went in. at that point i was just praying that it didn't hit any of the border patrol officers. >> unfortunately, one border patrol agent was injured, but taken to the hospital and released with minor injuries. so that's good news there both people inside, as i said, killed instantly. at this hour authorities do not believe any sort of bomb or explosive device was used. just a high rate of speed and impact. >> as of this time there is no threat to our area in western new york. we have no information of anything of that nature. so, we feel at this point that this might be just something that occurred. there's no larger picture here. >> mike, on the other side of the border, the canadian side, prime minister justin trudeau ended a speech early in parliament in to head to a meeting about this very car explosion. >> additional measures are being contemplated and activated at all border crossings across the country. we are taking this ordinarily seriously. >> president biden and attorney general merrick garland both briefed on the situation. authorities expect it to take some time before they can fully complete the investigation given the fact the car exploded. mike? >> mike: david, you mentioned authorities are on high alert. how did that play into the response today? >> david: that's right, no question. this explosion had authorities on all levels reacting quickly given the heightened concern of a potential attack in the united states. again, at this point in the probe, there is no indication this is such an attack. but when authorities first saw a car explode near a border check point on, perhaps, the busiest travel day of the year, they quickly responded and looked at all scenarios. mike? >> mike: david spunt starting us live here in washington. david, thanks very much. ♪ >> mike: breaking tonight, our other top story, israel and hamas have agreed to a cease-fire and prisoner swap that will put their war on pause. the truce will last four days. hamas will free 50 of the roughly 240 hostages it holds. israel will release 150 palestinians. there is a provision to lengthen the cease-fire in exchange for more hostages. we have fox team coverage. lucas tomlinson with the president on the nantucket island where thanksgiving is going to be a lot better for an administration that will welcome home three american hostages. trey yingst in jerusalem with an inside look at the tunnels under the main hospital in gaza. we begin with correspondent jeff paul in tel aviv details on the cease-fire agreement. hello, jeff. >> yeah, good evening, mike. a change of plans tonight here in israel. the country's national security reporting that the first group of hostages won't be released until friday at the earliest. and it's a development like that that is only making the families of hostages even more anxious. >> i'm very nervous and frustrated and i am waiting for news. i want just good news. >> an emotional plea from a mother in israel desperate for her family's return. >> i just want to hug my children, to kiss them, to protect them. >> calderon is just one of the many families hoping the hostage deal between israel and hamas is just a start. in an agreement broke ared by qatar, egypt and the u.s., hamas will free 50 hostages, women and children. in exchange, israel will release 150 palestinian prisoners. the hostages will come out in groups of 10 to 12 over the span of four to five days. with each day a pause in the fighting. israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu says it was a tough decision, but the right decision; however, he insists there is still focused on rooting out hamas. >> i would like to be clear. war continues, war continues. we will continue until hamas -- >> we affirm that our fingers remain on the trigger and our victorious fighters will remain on the lookout to defeat the occupation. but for the civilians of gaza the pause in fighting could offer relief. more aid like fuel, clean water, and food. >> we have been waiting for this cease-fire. we have been hoping for it. we pray for peace for all people so we can be done with all these challenges we are facing. >> with no hostages coming out tomorrow, there is a lot of uncertainty about what the fighting will look like after weeks of intense fighting. zero indications tonight that the war will stop. not at least until these hostages start coming home mike? >> mike paul live in tel aviv. thanks a lot. a inside look at the tunnels inside gaza hospital used as staging area by hamas. correspondent trey yingst is in jerusalem tonight. [gunfire. >> dusty trails lead israeli troops through northern gaza lining the path are palestinian civilians as they flee to the south. >> you can see right there, palestinian civilians holding white flags. they are going through the evacuation corridor to get to the southern part of the gaza strip. >> it's been nearly seven weeks of war. nearly seven weeks of uncertainty for families on both sides of the fence. inside gaza city, the destruction is catastrophic. few buildings are left untouched by the israeli air and ground campaign. outside of gaza's largest hospital, a cash of weapons is on display. the stockpile the israelis say was found in surrounding buildings near palestinian patients. under their feet, hidden from view, until today. an even larger discovery. >> right now we are under gaza's al she hospital complex. these are the tunnels the israelis say hamas used to move weapons and fighters. you can see this clay beneath the hospital. this is what hamas was digging through when they built these tunnels. the dark and damp corridors give you a sense of what it was like for those hostages when they were taken into gaza on october 7th. >> you can hear there the israelis are still conducting new airstrikes against the northern part of the gaza strip. it is shaking the ground. >> the israeli military has faced criticism for raiding gaza's al shifa hospital with what you have found, was it worth it. >> i think it was a professional operation. we're now seven days here. not a single shot was fired inside the hospital, hitting a doctor or a patient or a civilian. not one some of those palestinian civilians are still sheltering at the hospital. among an estimated 1,000 gazans who remain at al shifa. others left today on buses provided by the united nations. >> we meet mohammed, you can see the sadness in his eyes, unsure of what comes next. >> it's our home. it's our country. it has been destroyed. it's our country after all. >> israel has maintained, despite the rising death toll in gaza, they are at war with hamas. not the civilian population. mike? >> fascinating report. trey yingst live in jerusalem. trey, thanks very much. president biden will get to celebrate thanksgiving a little easier with the pending release of three americans held by hamas. lucas tomlinson is at the president's holiday retreat on nantucket island. hello, lucas. >> luke's president biden welcos of possible release of 50 hostages all women and children including three americans. democrats remain divided over biden's israel policy, a policy that is being greatly influenced by the pro-palestinian protests throughout the country ♪ chanting genocide joe has got to go. >> protests continued on the streets of new york again today. at the white house, officials warn the deal could still fall apart. >> we recognize that one party to this agreement is a terrorist organization. a terrorist organization that hasn't always abided by the commitments that they have made. >> white house officials say president biden has been putting increasing pressure on israel's prime minister over his handling of the war and the rising civilian death toll. >> i really am tired of these anonymous administration officials leaking to the media oh we put a lot of pressure on the netanyahu government. that is not what the world needs to hear right now. >> president biden celebrated the announced deal in a statement, quote: i appreciate the commitment that prime minister netanyahu and his government have made in supporting an extended pause to ensure this deal can be fully carried out. democratic senator bernie sanders blames israel's prime minister for killing thousands of civilians. while israel has the right to go after hamas, netanyahu's right wing extremist government does not have the right to wage almost total warfare against the palestinian people. republican lawmakers say pressure from the white house should not get in the way of israel winning the war pressure from the biden white house will only get greater, only get more significant to try to prevent israel from resuming its work to follow through on that commitment and eliminating hamas. >> today president biden spoke to qatar. the president of egypt as well as israel prime minister benjamin where he says president biden emphasized to netanyahu the importance of remaining calm in lebanon as well as the west bank. mike? >> mike: lucas tomlinson live in nantucket. thanks a lot. up next the u.s.-hamas hostage deal. or will it encourage more hostage taking? plus, biden hasn't given up on taxpayers paying off those college loans. ♪ (fisher investments) it's easy to think that all money managers are pretty much the same, but at fisher investments we're clearly different. 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[sfx: cards shuffling] this holiday, weathertech gift cards are perfect for people to pick exactly what they want. laser measured floorliners that fit your vehicle precisely. keep your seats safe from messes with the child car seat protector. sinkmat protects under your sink. there's even something for our furry friends with the pet feeding system. order the weathertech gift card instantly for the holidays at weathertech.com ♪ ♪ (car engine revs) (engine accelerating) (texting clicks) (tires squeal) (glass shattering) (loose gravel clanking) >> mike: the ousted leader of chatgpt maker open ai. threatened to quit unless sam altman was reinstated. he will teen a different board of directors than the ones that terminated him on friday. stocks headed up into the holiday. the dow gained 185. the s&p 500 finished ahead 18. nasdaq jumped 66. a storm system that threatened to disrupt thanksgiving travel has cleared out of the eastern u.s. that's good news for the millions of people trying to connect with family and friends short holiday. about 2.7 million people were expected to board flights today. now let's bring in fox news chief political analyst brit hume. brit, good evening. >> brit: hi, mike. hike. >> mike: on the hostage situation to get the families home there will be tremendous joy. we still expect 200 people to be held hostage. what kind of power, brit, does that give hamas, a terror group, over israel desperate to get its people out? >> well, in purely military terms, mike. this is not a good deal. 50 hostages in exchange exchange for 150 palestinian prisoners. and cease-fire as far as hamas is concerned not a good deal. but, listen, israel has a long history of going to extraordinary lengths to get its people back captive israeli citizens. they have made deals far more unequal than this in the past. so, this is what they do. and it is deeply embedded in israeli tradition. so i don't think that the political leadership or even the war cabinet in israel felt it had much of a choice than to try do this. it does open the door to the possibility that further cease-fires, which are not militarily desirable when you are trying to completely eliminate an enemy, would be -- would be put in place to get more of them back. get more of the prisoners back and there are as you mentioned many more. and in addition to that, of course, you can make a pretty good case that this shows the power of hostage-taking and the leverage that it affords an enemy. particularly an enemy of israel. so, it remains to be seen whether even though it was probably traditionally dictated, this turns out to be a good deal. >> brit, we live in a very visual world where images from around the globe virtually instantly what impact could how these hostages look opinion around the globe? >> well, you know, it's hard to imagine especially that these children who have been held captive in what must be enormously frightening and jarring circumstances for so long, what kind of shape they will be in. and it's also a good question how much of them will be able to see but the people in israel have a sense of how they have done. and they may well indeed harden sentiments against hamas. but, for the people who are the families of those still being held hostage, i think it will -- it will wetted the app. tight for further concessions needed to get them out. so this is a very difficult situation for the israelis to deal with. when you take into account that their goal is the elimination, the obliteration of hamas as a force in the region, and i think, you know, it all very much remains to be seen how all this will play out and whether this will give an undue advantage to hamas going forward. i have heard it reported, mike, that war cabinet felt that this particular cease-fire for whatever duration it is could be accommodated with the israeli war. i think that very much remains to be seen. >> mike: makes you wonder if there will be more request for cease-fire as leverage to get those other prisoners out, right? >> brit: exactly right. i think -- of course, hamas understands this. i mean, they know the israeli tradition is. and that's why they took the hostages in the first place, to use them as leverage. and we're seeing that play out before our very eyes in this deal and perhaps with future deals to come. and we'll see to what extent hamas is able to regroup and reorder its forces to further resist israel. this could cost israeli idf soldiers' lives, depending on what hamas is able to do. >> mike: brit hume, always great to have your analysis. thank you so much. and happy thanksgiving to you and your wonderful family. >> brit: same to you, mike. thank you. >> mike: up next, will new house speaker mike johnson be able to come up with the campaign cash for his fellow republicans? first, here is what some of our fox affiliates around the country are covering tonight. fox 4 in anchorage as three people are killed and three are missing after a landslide barrels down a heavily forested rain soaked mountain side and smashes into homes in remote fishing community in southeast, alaska. the slide occurred monday night during a significant rain and wind storm an island committee 155 miles south of the state capitol near juneau. khon in honolulu as a group of lahaina wildfire firefighters vows to camp on a popular resort beach until the mayor uses his emergency powers to shut down unpermitted vacation rentals. they want the properties available for residents in desperate need of housing following the august blaze that destroyed their town. and this is a live look at saint paul, minnesota from fox 9. one of the big stories there tonight, an exploding population of hard to eradicate super pigs in canada threatening to pill south of the border. northern states such as minnesota, north dakota, and montana are taking steps to stop the invasion. minnesota officials are expected to release a report friday outlining their strategy. that's tonight's live look outside the beltway from "special report." we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ have you seen the little piggies ♪ rolling in the dirt ♪ and for all the little piggies ♪ life is getting worse ♪ always they release medicine fast for fast pain relief. having and now, get max strength topical pain relief precisely where you need it. with new tylenol precise. 18 years from tonight, grant gill will become a legend. when he totally kills it at his improv class's graduation performance. knees will be slapped. suds will be sprayed. people won't know what hurts more: their cheeks, or their sides. that's why he's already keeping himself in-shape and razor sharp today with health tips and wellness tools from aarp. to help make sure his health lives as long as he does. because the younger you are, the more you need aarp. 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[chanting] >> losing in the supreme court hasn't stopped president biden from forgiving billions in student loans. >> my administration has canceled $127 billion in student debts for nearly 3.6 million americans latest effort cancel student threw debt through bankruptcy it. should be very hard to discharge student loans in bankruptcy. >> it was until now, under new federal guidelines, borrowers can simply claim undue hardship by filling out ament do. if expenses exceed income and they have shown a good faith effort to pay, the government can help cancel their loan. >> basically you are talking about not repalinging innocent people, taxpayers. >> unlike private loans through a bank, most student loans are backed by the u.s. treasury. when students are allowed to default, taxpayers pay the price fair to individuals paid off their loans and frugality and fair to young people who chose not to go to college in the first place. >> great have conversation but i don't know it's a big enough step toward what people need. >> reset balances for underwater loans. forgive loans to borrowers who are already paid for 20 years. reduce payments for those in low paying jobs. cancel debts for those in public service and students who attended so-called predatory colleges. senate republicans recently tried to overturn parts of the president's reduced payment plan, they failed. the doj says 99% of those who sought bankruptcy had their student debt fully or partially erased. mike? >> mike: william la jeunesse. thanks very much. ♪ ♪ >> transition to clean energy sources. tonight my colleague bret baier takes a look at demand and the environmental impact of extracting and manufacturing those elements. >> thanks, mike, rising demand for electric vehicles and green technology is creating an increasing need for rare earth magnets. regulations and environmental concerns over producing those has made domestic manufacturing scarce over the years. as the u.s. was implementing those practices and regulations, china was ramping up its production. as can you imagine, without the same climate regulations and workplace standards. tonight, we look at the balancing act between the climate risk and the growing need for magnets made from rare earth materials and clean energy technology. >> this is not our grandfather's mining companies anymore. >> from the mid 1960s through the mid 1980s, the u.s. was largely self-sufficient in mining and refining rare earth elements. when the u.s. began implementing environmental regulations nearly all rare earth mining operations were forced to close. opening the door for other countries to increase production. >> how does mining and the production using these minerals create more pollution. >> well, exactly right. because it starts with the energy used to mine things like minerals, for that matter any other fuel source and then how that fuel source is used. but all of is highly intensive pollution in china and it's much less intensive in the united states and with other friends and allies. >> u.s. firms began depend kent on imports from other countries, such as china. manufacturers faced less stringent standards and could pay lower wages abroad. >> sometimes we just can't compete with what the chinese do. the chinese don't have those kinds of standards. >> we have a lot of regulatory rules that we have to abide by. our goal is to put it back the way we found it or better. the rules are there. we follow them. and there's no shortcuts. there's no room in this industry for shortcuts. >> bret: nearly every part of the process impacts the environment. mining can pollute ground water and destroy ecosystems. dangerous metal buy products are released into the air through refining. china also has less restrictive labor laws. >> there is a tremendous environmental issue that needs to be dealt are in terms of water ground water pollution i mean, some of the people were very surprised by the working conditions and the lack of personal protective equipment and safety standards. we know that we can operate these mines selfry. we are the best in the world at operating safely and responsibly. >> bret: the u.s. has several places where rare earth minerals are found. geologists have announced locations in idaho and colorado. examining deposit hits? arizona, montana nevada and wyoming. government regulations are slowing down any new mining and manufacturing. >> we need a dramatic increase in our ability to mine and process minerals both here in the united states and around the world in places that are our friends and allies. that's something that i think we should be doing on a bipartisan basis, permitting reform and investing more in the development of these critical. >> rare earths, begin operations in five years at its site in hallett creek, wyoming. u.s. critical materials is map ago location in southwest montana but needs another five to 10 years of further exploration before applying for permits to mine. the company tells fox it also after eight month study it hopes to be among the few producers technology to separate and find rare earth metals. >> if everyone needs to be driving new electric vehicle by 2030, we need to allow for safe and clean mining within the united states demand for elements expected to rise 40% in the next two decades as additional wind turbines power homes and more electric cars hit the road. >> i think a lot of people in the united states are waking up to that now and realizing well, what do you mean we're going to have who open more minds in order to have an energy transition. we have a great opportunity we can get it done with the minerals we have here in the united states. >> bret: next, as china takes a foot hold in africa's mineral landscape. we look at what the u.s. is doing to try compete there how we are working with allies to mine and increase production around the world. we'll send it back to you. >> mike: wreath, thanks a lot. up next, the panel on the hostage deal between israel and hamas and whether pressure from the biden administration made it happen. >> there are no touchdown dances here at the white house right now. prime minister netanyahu we are grateful to president sisi of egypt and the emir of qatar. ♪ she found it. the feeling of finding the psoriasis treatment she's been looking for. sotyktu is the first-of-its-kind, once-daily pill for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis for the chance at clear or almost clear skin. it's like the feeling of finding your back... is back. or finding psoriasis can't deny the splendor of these thighs. once-daily sotyktu is proven to get more people clearer skin than the leading pill. don't take if you're allergic to sotyktu; serious reactions can occur. sotyktu can lower your ability to fight infections including tb. serious infections, cancers including lymphoma, muscle problems, and changes in certain labs have occurred. tell your doctor if you have an infection, liver or kidney problems, high triglycerides, or had a vaccine or plan to. sotyktu is a tyk2 inhibitor. tyk2 is part of the jak family. it's not known if sotyktu has the same risks as jak inhibitors. find what plaque psoriasis has been hiding. ask your dermatologist about sotyktu for clearer skin. so clearly you. sotyktu. 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(vo) it's your vision, it's your verizon. dear moms and dads, what you have achieved here today is going to help us and our futures. it is why we're coming up on stage to collect your diplomas. mom, love you always. vo: when you graduate, they graduate. visit finishyourdiploma.org to find free and supportive adult education centers near you. >> israel is at war with hamas. this is a war that we did not start and we did not seek. an operational force for release of hostages does not change it. >> the excruciating nature of this decision that the israeli leadership had to go through is not something the hamas leaders suffer. just about killing, they are just about destruction. >> let's start our panel segment by taking a look at some of the deal points in the israel, hamas hostage deal. hamas releasing 50 women and children, three of them americans, israel to release 150 women and children. a four-day temporary cease-fire and humanitarian assistance in to gaza. it sounded like some of the initial prisoners would be coming out. hostages would be coming out in the hours ahead. now it sounds like it may have slipped to friday. with that let's bring in our panel. trey gowdy former congressman from the great state of south carolina. stef kight and syndicated radio host hugh hewitt. so, trey, is this a good deal it is if you are one of the hostages and one of their loved ones. israel once traded a 1,000 palestinians for a single israeli soldier. just one. so, israel never should have been in this situation. and so i hope it goes through. i hope the deal goes through and then i hope tomorrow would don't suffer from collective stockholm syndrome and forget that hamas is the group that took them in the first place, the best way to not have to release or negotiate for the release of hostages is to not take them in the first place they are only release them. it's not conscience, relief or remorse. israel, pause for four days, get your hostages. if they want to release mover keep pausing and then go back to your war against hamas. >> mike: to that point israel and the u.s. government don't want to negotiate with terrorists when it comes to women, children and civilians do they have a choice, certify? stef?>> this is a complicated situation and the biden administration has been actively involved in these negotiations for the past several weeks. you know, there is obviously concern for these hostages who have been with hamas now for weeks at a time and it's important that the u.s. works to release not just the americans who are still among them, but other women and children and this is a step forward in that direction and, of course, israel has made clear that this is not the end of the war here but a pause to enable, you know, both the hostages to be released but also for humanitarian aid to be allowed to go into gaza as we continue to see reports about the death toll rising there among civilians and humanitarian concerns there as well. >> mike: israeli prime minister benjamin thanked president biden for his help. let's play that. >> i spoke just now with biden, president biden, i thanked him for his actions, vis-a-vis the intermediaries to help obtain what we have obtained. the combination of the military and political efforts have caused this to make it possible. >> mike: shout out from the israeli prime minister help president biden with his handling of israeli-hamas crisis? >> i don't think so. i saw polling that has seven out of 10 democrats under the age of 35 critical of president biden's handling of this. so his party has gone hard left. and he is sort of left alone. i want to stress whether or not president biden wanted the deal done or secretary blinken. last night israeli cabinet. all 38 members of it, after presentations by the mass sad, that's their cia, the shin bet, that's their fbi and israeli defense forces, the cabinet voted 35-3 in favor of the deal as it we understand it and the deal points you put out there, mike. so israel will continue to do what is in israel's best interest. the one thing i have heard from israeli journalists like ha bib, israeli diplomats dr. michael lorne ambassador to the united states israel is committed to the destruction of hamas and that the war will resume the moment that the hostages stop coming across the line. >> mike: put this quote from the "wall street journal" editorial board to see. i will get to you react to it. the cause of the short-term cease-fire hamas will exploit in three quarters of the hostages will remain in terrorist hands. president biden has said hamas needs to be destroyed. if he means it, he will back israel's right to resume fighting and finish the job after hostages are released. trey, there may be more calls for extended cease-fire about l. president biden have the guts to allow the fighting to go forward? >> he better because it's not just hostages mike as you know the hostages are alive. how about the thousands of children dead. the children hamas beheaded a month ago or the women they raped. it's one thing to have hostages and slowly trickle them out. we should not forget it's the same group that butchered israelis a little over a month ago. so, if biden doesn't want to support israel's extermination of hamas, he may have more problems than just young people. >> mike: i would like to play a little sound from some of the hostage family members reacting to news of the deal. >> i pray and hope that the world will help all of us get our hearts out of gaza. every one of them need to come home and not in coffins. they should come home to tell their stories. >> we do not fully trust hamas. talking about very crucial -- very cruel terrorist organization we hope they will stand up to the agreement that they have signed. >> mike: staff will likely see tears of joy from families being reunited in the coming days. obviously some continuing heart break for the families whose people will still be held hostage, right? >> exactly. look. this is going to be an important next few days for family members we have heard in the press over and over again express concern for their loved ones. we know they will be eager to see them again to be reunited this is just the beginning and this is not all of the hostages being released. at least at this point. and we know that everyone is going to be watching the days following this four-day deal. whether we continue to see hamas play along and release additional hostages in order to extend the cease-fire or whether we see the agreement end here, again, this just the beginning and we are all going to be watching very closely to see what happens over the next few days. >> mike: all right. panel we're off to a fast start. up next the presidential campaign but as we go to break ♪ ♪ >> mike: this is the 60th anniversary of the assassination of president john f. kennedy. it has as the president and first lady were riding in a car during a procession down the streets of dallas. for the last six decades there is intense debate about whether accused assassin lee harvey ozwald acted alone. ozwald was killed by nightclub owner rubio. rubio died in prison in 1967 of natural causes. of setting spanning over 280,000 acres. three forks ranch is the destination for luxury and adventure. enjoy private skiing with 23 runs for every level. kick back for intimate performances from the best in country music. enhance your wellness and longevity through our mayo clinic programs, or plan your meeting for a memorable corporate retreat. discover the west kept secret. go to three forks ranch dot com to book your luxury experience. dry skin is sensitive skin, too. and it's natural. treat it that way with aveeno® daily moisture. formulated with nourishing, prebiotic oat. it's clinically proven to moisturize dry skin for 24 hours. aveeno® from pep in their step to shine in their coats, when people switch their dog's food to the farmer's dog, the effects can seem like magic. but there's no magic involved. 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[shouting] [laughter] >> i endorse new balance wholeheartedly, without a doubt. >> it is endorsement season. in fact, we had one on this show last night. bob vander plaats in iowa back with our panel trey, stef and hugh. hugh, you speak with the american people every day. do these endorsements move the needle? >> yes, they do in iowa. bob vander plaats is probably the most influential nonelected political activist in the united states. evidence time there is a republican primary there, combined with the governor there, that's a big one to punch for governor desantis. wibut the reality is, if there s more than one contender among governor desantis and christie and haley will south carolina and florida then former president trump has effectively won. they can't go into florida with more than one candidate and mr. ramaswamy doesn't matter in this calculation. if the field doesn't consolidate i don't see how donald trump isn't the nominee. >> mike: take a look at the real clear average of polls in iowa where president trump, former president trump up nearly 30 points over governor desantis then there is nikki haley. tim scott has just dropped out. governor desantis has picked up a couple of huge endorsements if iowa. stef, your expectations? these endorsements are struggling some momentum back over the last few months. especially important if you are looking at the national average of iowa polls. nikki haley has been starting to gain on him in iowa as welling. and, of course, as hugh points out, this is really a race for second place. a race for being the -- you know, trump alternative here remain the most likely anti-trump candidate. >> if the polls are off, trey. and that's a big if, we will see. and if former president trump does not have that massive of a lead and desantis or governor haley in your home state of south carolina pull up an upset is game on at that point? >> it would if all of those hypotheticals were at the come through true mike's. i'm not sure they would. hugh, hewitt and stef have forgotten more about politics than i actually know. i don't think endorsements matter that much with the one exception, i think president trump's endorsement matters and i don't know this for sure, but i'm pretty sure is he going to endorse himself. so, yeah. ron got kim reynolds, bob vander plaats, good for him, i would rather have him than not. it's not going to modify the needle. he is the prohibitive favorite. nikki haley is rising. if you got one-on-one early enough, would it be interesting? yes. but to hugh's point. it ain't one-on-one right now. and until it gets to be one-on-one, donald trump will be the prohibitive favorite. >> mike: hugh, we are nearly out of time, if there is an upset on the horizon, where would it be? >> it would come if chris christie were to endorse someone before the new hampshire primary along with governor sununu. that could change new hampshire. new hampshire is usually the bellwether. new hampshire is usually the one who tells you who is going to be the nominee. >> mike: all right, stef your thoughts, mad scramble until iowans.>> nikki haley has been investing resources there and doing well in the polls. i'm curious to see whether haley is able to continue to ride this wave she has been on. >> mike: all right, panelists, thank you very much for this analyst on thanksgiving eve. grateful for your time and wish you and your families a very happy thanksgiving. >> you too, mike. >> happy thanksgiving. ♪ >> mike: and finally tonight, a special delivery. hundreds of care packages are on their way overseas right now to the men and women serving in our nation's military. the blue star moms organization dates back to world war ii. it has chapters all across the country. the sacramento toe blue star moms will pack 400 care packages for the troops. military moms doing their part to send some joy to our men and women stationed overseas, a long way away from home on this thanksgiving holiday. a great job by all of them. tomorrow, on "special report," the latest developments on the israel-hamas deal. now, remember, if you can't catch us live, if you're having turkey or perhaps pie with your family at that point, set your dvr, #:00 p.m. eastern, 3:00 on the west coast, thanks for watching "special report." i'm mike emanuel in washington. i'm back tomorrow for a live "special report." that will do it for this evening, "the ingraham angle" is up next. have a wonderful holiday, god bless america. ♪ ♪ >> jason: i'm jason chaffetz in for laura ingraham and thi