their next target. that's why israel's victory will be your victory. but make no mistake regardless of who stands with israel, israel will fight until this battle is won. and israel will prevail. >> that was part of a defiant speech yesterday from israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu where he rejected calls for a cease-fire as well as his resignation. we'll have more of his comments and the latest on the israel-hamas war in just a moment. meanwhile, aid for israel is a top priority on capitol hill, but the two chambers have very different plans for delivering it. we'll go through that potential funding fight. and also ahead, the new executive action from president biden on an emerging technology with serious national security concerns. good morning and welcome to "way too early" on this tuesday, october 31st, halloween. i'm jonathan lemire. thanks for starting your day with us. we have a busy news day. we'll begin in the middle east. as the humanitarian crisis in gaza worsens, prime minister benjamin netanyahu is rejecting the growing international calls for a cease-fire. at a press conference yesterday netanyahu asked that other nations simply support israel's fight against hamas. >> just as the united states would not agree to a cease-fire after the bombing of pearl harbor or after the terrorist attack of 9/11, israel will not agree to a cessation with hamas after the horrific attacks of october 7th. calls for a cease-fire are calls for israel to surrender to hamas, to surrender to terrorism, to surrender to barbarism. that will not happen. this is a time for war, a war for our common future. today we draw a line between the forces of civilization and the forces of barbarism. it is a time for everyone to decide where they stand. israel will stand against the forces of barbarism until victory. i hope and pray that civilized nations everywhere will back this fight. because israel's fight is your fight. >> netanyahu also defended his own actions surrounding the war. and this comes after hisploitical opponents have called for his resignation over his failure to prevent the october 7th aterror attacks. >> the only thing that i intend to have resign is hamas. we're going to resign them to the dustbin of history. that's my goal. that's my responsibility, and that's what i'm leading and attempting to do. not a single civilian has to die. hamas merely has to let them go to the safe zone that we created in south eastern gaza strip. there's a safe zone there. not a single civilian has to die. but hamas is preventing them from leaving, keeping them in the areas of conflict. so i think that you should direct your questions to hamas. but i can tell you one thing, we're going out of our way to prevent civilian casualties. >> israeli troops are pushing deeper into gagaza advancing the ground invasion that began late friday. "the washington post" is now reporting soldiers reaching the area's main highway. this is the deepest troops have gone into the territory since the land offensive began. the israeli military has been deliberate vague about the operation, providing few details about the locations and numbers of troops involved. but officials say they're targeting hamas infrastructure and have killed numerous terrorists. meanwhile, the united nations is making urgent appeals for a humanitarian cease-fire calling it a matter of life and death. the u.n. officials say the area's system is in tatters and pleading for mere aid. as of now only a handful of convoys have been allowed to enter gaza. officials say that is not nearly enough to help the around 2 million civilians. the israeli military, meanwhile, says it has rescued one of its soldiers. the private was abducted from an army base during a hamas attack on october 7th. officials say they found her overnight sunday while conducting a ground invasion in gaza. now, it's not exactly clear where she was being held, but the military says the 19-year-old was in good physical and mental health. she provided israeli security services with information and was then brought home to her family. she's the first person we know of to be rescued by the israeli military. four other hostages were earlier released by hamas. it's believed more than 240 people are still being held captive in gaza. yesterday israeli president revealed one hostage was beheaded by the terrorist group. officials say the german israeli woman who was kidnapped from a music festival during hamas' surprise attack on the 7th was tortured and then her body paraded through the streets of gaza. joining us now former spokesperson to the mission of the united nations. really good to see you this morning. thank you for being here. let's talk about this dilemma we played at the beginning of this, netanyahu flatly rejected any calls for a cease-fire and any humanitarian pause. the u.n. is saying the humanitarian crisis is worsening. some sort of allowance need to be made to get supplies into gaza. what sort of balancing act should israel in your estimation try to do here? and if they don't, how could that turn public opinion against some of their efforts? >> well, israel's in a really impossible situation, to be honest with you. they're in a war mode. and their number one goal is to defeat hamas obviously to protect themselves from ongoing rockets that continue to go from gaza into israel. they have a lot of goals they need to achieve, releasing the hostages, making sure terrorists and proxies around them don't believe they can continue with these sorts of attacks. and at the same time if they don't, if they aren't as targeted as possible and you see the death tolls of civilians creep up, even if that's hamas preventing them from leaving, and even if that's hamas using them as human shields at the end of the day that undermines israel's broader goal of a more secure israel. the reason is that a war like this could defeat hamas and i certainly hope it does, it's not necessarily going to win this larger war for a more peaceful and secure israel because those grievances among the gazan civilians and other palestinians is only going to grow and only encourage them to seek out future violence or violent resistance against the state of israel. so they are in a impossible situation. i will say i completely understand that not pursuing a cease-fire right now, i believe that would be very bad military strategy because you're dealing a terrorist group. and with iran you're not dealing with a rational state actor, and i don't expect the u.s. to change its position on that either. but i do believe humanitarian pauses, pauses that are in several hours to allow sylvan yz to move further down and allow troops to come in would be very valuable. >> we've heard the biden administration nudge israel for more of those pauses. certainly not suggesting a cease-fire but suggesting some sort of humanitarian aid needs to get in there. good news that israeli soldier was freed. ongoing diplomatic efforts to free hostages as well. how does the ground invasion either help or hinder that? >> it's difficult to say. we've seen every u.s. general and u.s. government warn against a ground offensive and how difficult it would be in urban combat, rather the u.s. would have a delayed ground offensive in order to allow for negotiations for hostages. so it's clear israel disagrees. in my own experience in dealing with the israeli government, you can advise them only so much. at the end of the day the israeli government is going to do what it feels is best. and perhaps this allows them to be more targeted. perhaps they have intelligence that will lead them to hostages. the news about the rescue of the israeli soldier yesterday is great. you're talking about 240, and you're talking again about a terrorist organization that has nothing to lose. they don't care if they kill hostages. they don't care if they kill too many people. it's very hard to know if this will be the most successful way to release them. >> former spokesperson to the u.s. missions to the unations, we'll speak to you again soon. mike johnson is taking a bipartisan good will of providing aid for israel but is then launching a fight with president biden over his signature achievement while settingp a collision course with the senate. house republins released the details of their aid package for israel yesterday. it includes $14.3 billion i emergency funding. here's the catch, the bill receives that same amount of irs funding from the inflation reduction act. republicans are calling it an offset. that's not what this is. the is act is the major climate and tax law that president biden signed last year, signed into law. the gop bill also focuses solely on israel despite the white house's request for aid to both israel and ukraine. the measure set to be considered by the rules committee when the house returns tomorrow, and a vote in the full chamber could happen later in the week, potentially thursday. speaker johnson spoke about the bill to fox news in an interview that's set to air later today. >> we understand what's at stake here, and i hope everyone will put politics aside, get that bill over the line. we're not just going to print money and send it overseas because the other concern overriding this is our own strength as a nation which is tied to physical stability, and we have to keep in mind as we try to help everyone else. >> even if the bill passes, the provisions are all but guaranteed to be rejected by the democratic led senate or the white house, which would then setup a clash how exactly the u.s. would approve the aid to israel. at the same time, a key senate committee hearing -- a key senate committee will hold a hearing this morning on president biden's request for aid to israel and ukraine and other key areas regarding national security. the senate appropriations committee is set to hear testimony from secretary of state antony blinken as well as defense secretary lloyd austin. that begins at 9:30 a.m. eastern. the two secretaries are expected to use the hearing to explain the administration's supplementing funding request for israel, ukraine, taiwan, the southern border with mexico and why the aid should be passed as one package instead of individually like we're now seeing in the house. senate majority leader chuck schumer spoke on the senate floor yesterday urging congress to pass the funding immediately. on the other side of the aisle, senate minority mitch mcconnell also stressed the importance of aid for ukraine while holding a news conference in his home state of kentucky with ukraine's ambassador to the united states. mcconnell, who has been consistent and good on the ukraine issue, urged his colleagues to support additional aid. his opinion may not matter in the lower chamber. still ahead here, after six weeks, the auto worker strike is coming to an end. we'll break down the tentative deal the union reached with the final holdout of the big three auto makers. also, former president trump is under a gag order again. hear what he had to say about that. plus, which of the trump children are set to testify in the trump organization's $250 million civil fraud trial in new york this week? those stories and a check on weather and sports when we come right back. right back the ball is out and there's a pile-up. -let's go! -get in the pile! ugh, i'll deal with this tomorrow. you won't. it's ripe in here. my eyes are watering. i'm a busy man. look how crusty this is. shameful. ugh, it's just too much. not with this. tide. tide can tackle any pile. that a tackle pun? just clean the pile, ron. okay. this too. that was easy. when stains and odors pile up, it's got to be tide. ♪ today, my friend you did it, you did it, you did it... ♪ centrum silver is now clinically shown to support cognitive health in older adults. it's one more step towards taking charge of your health. so every day, you can say, ♪ youuu did it! ♪ with centrum silver. welcome back. we have more from the middle east a little later in the show, but now we turn to some of the morning's other top headlines. donald trump responded to a reinstated gag order. in the federal election interference case by once again attacking the judge. trump did not mention federal judge tanya chutkan by name in his new social media post but it was clear he was talking about her. trump has already been fined twice for violating a gag order in his new york civil fraud trial. meanwhile, there are new updates in that trial, which, of course, is the trump organization's $250 million suit. ivanka trump's highly anticipated testimony has been delayed. it was initially scheduled for this friday but now expected to happen next week on november 8th. the judge in the case moved her testimony because fridays are typically half days at the court and lawyers would likely not have enough time to question her. donald trump jr. and eric trump are, though, still both scheduled to testify this week, tomorrow, and thursday respectively. the former president himself is scheduled to take the stand on monday. meanwhile, general motors has reached a tentative deal with the united auto workers ending strikes with detroit's big three after six weeks. the deal mirrors agreements the union reached with ford and stellantis. the details have not yet been published but reportedly include benefits such as a 25% pay increase over 4 1/2 years as well as cost of living adjustments. the deal could also prove to be a significant political win for president biden, who openly sided with the striking workers. >> i applaud uaw for agreeing all the workers on strike and all those walking the picket lines on bealphaof uaw can go back to work immediately. i always believed unions built the middle class. >> all three tentative deals will need to be ratified by rank and file members before they take effect. still ahead here on "way too early," we'll taurn to sports including a recap of game three of the world series with the rangers trying to extend their perfect post-season road record. plus, we'll give you a break down of the blockbuster trade happened overnight and involved nba star james hardin. tell you where he's going. those stories and a check on the halloween forecast are next on "way too early." k on the halloween forecast are next on "way too early." ne auctions since 2009. this playstation 5 sold for only 50 cents. this ipad pro sold for less than $34. and this nintendo switch, sold for less than $20. i got this kitchenaid stand mixer for only $56. i got this bbq smoker for 26 bucks. and shipping is always free. go to dealdash.com right now and see how much you can save. it ain't my dad's razor, dad. ay watch it! it's from gillettelabs. this green bar releases trapped hairs from my face... gamechanga! ...while the flexdisc contours to it. so the five blades can get virtually every hair in one stroke. for the ultimate gillette shaving experience. the best a man can get is gillettelabs. ah mornings! cough? congestion? i'm feeling better. all in one and done with new mucinex kickstart. headache? better now. new mucinex kickstart gives all-in-one and done relief with a morning jolt of instant cooling sensation. it's comeback season. world series hit right there to make it 1-0 texas. texas also unbeatable this post-season in the road, 8-0. corey seager smashes the ball. 3-0, texas. >> can't leave a change-up like that. corey seager padded the rangers lead over the diamondbacks last night with that absolute bullet of a two run homer. and indeed helped texas remain perfect on the road this post-season. max scherzer pitched three scoreless innings before he had to exit early with back tightness, but four texas relievers did their part to keep arizona's offense quiet for most of the game. john gray a particular hero of the rangers also lost slugger adolis garcia who left in the eighth with tightness in his left side after appearing to hurt himself on a swing. these are costly injuries perhaps. texas wins 3-1 after it bounced back after getting blown out saturday night. the rangers now lead the series two games to one. game four tonight in phoenix. meanwhile, the rangers' comeback victory in game one the extra inning game averaged just 9.35 millioniewers ulcross fox platforms, a decline from the previous in 2020 which was the dodgers and rays. these are not two big market teams, not a lot of big stars but it's good baseball. it's been a great year for the mlb. let's turn now to the nfl. we'll go to detroit were rookies helped lead the lions. caught eight passes and that touch down. while running back gibbs made his breakout performance rushing for a season high 152 yards, and lions finish up week 8 with a 26-14 win over the pretty bad raiders. lions lead at 6 and 2. meanwhile former mba mvp hardin is finally getting his wish. eight players are involved in the deal which includes the clippers sending multiple draft picks to the 76ers. the trade ends a months long saga, bitter one between hardin in philadelphia. he requested a trade in june and when it hadn't happened in august harden called the manager a liar. james harden to the clippers we'll see how that goes. time now for the weather. angie, for halloween i'm going as a tired person. how about you? >> you know what, i think i will also join in on that. >> yes, popular costume around here. >> jonathan, when we look ahead to what we'll do with through the day today, chilly conditions for so many. we've got 95 million people under these frost or freeze alerts. at this time it extends for places like cleveland, atlantic city and extend out towards portion of the southwest. heads up for that. temperatures right now in some spots really chilly. temperatures at 30, but with those added winds it's feeling like 17 degrees, 25 what it feel like for st. louis and huntsville sits at 20 with the wind chill. we're going to start november with chilly conditions too. we could see lows across multiple locations across the midwest and the plains and the midatlantic will be on this. and temperatures tomorrow morning could be in the teens once again for places like chicago when you adin that wind. it's going to be a little blustery there. we'll start to get temperatures on pace where they should be. the halloween forecast scary cold for the middle of the country. how about graves, new york, sitting at 49 degrees. >> angie lassman, thanks so much. as israel expands its ground offensive into gaza, the u.s. says it will not limit the way israel uses american-made weapons as concerns over the number of civilian casualties rise. we'll break down what guidelines u.s. is urging israel to abide by. also ahead, the threat a wider war in the middle east poses for the global economy. "way too early" will be back with all of that. economy "way too early" will be back with all of that welcome back to "way too early." it is 5:30 a.m. on the east coast, 2:30 out west on this halloween tuesday morning. i'm jonathan lemire. thank you for being with us. turning back to the middle east now, the united states is not putting any limits on how israel deploys american-made weapons ipits war against hamas. that's according to pentagon deputy press secretary supreena singh. shipments of u.s. weapons have arrived in israel nearly every day since the war began. singh added the pentagon continues to urge humanitarian laws and the law of armed conflict be followed and adhered to as israel expands its ground offensive. joining us now chief geoeconomics analyst. thanks so much for being with us this morning. you have said that history sumgs the impact of this war at least for now will not threaten markets or the global economy. but if this war were to widep like we see right now that could very much change. please kman. >> that's right. and thanks for having me on this morning. history suggests if the conflict remains limited to israel, hamas, and southern lebanon forces, the impact to oil markets and global economy is like wise to be limited because hostilities are unlikely to affect -- that is likely to change if we saw oil producers in the region namely iran. the humanitarian toll is already quite significant. >> no question there. china has sort of stayed on the side lines largely from this. we haven't heard much from them. what's their incentive, though, for keeping this conflict contained? >> so, china really has every incentive not to see this widen into a larger war. diplomatically they've positioned themselves as a major diplomatic player in the region. earlier this year brokering a deal between iran and saudi arabia to start to normalize relations. and more broadly beijing seeking to establish itself as kind of a global peacemaker. that being said, as you noted, beijing's kind of been trying to tow the line here in terms of not really taking a strong condemnation of their actions. and more broadly has been engaged in diplomacy in the region, but again trying to tow that balance between not condemning hamas and showing support for palestine. >> and so, jennifer, there's -- on the subject of china, u.s. officials the last couple of days have all but confirmed the -- anticipated president biden will meet with xi jinping, the leader of china, in san francisco at a summit in a couple of weeks. it's still not 100% but likely to happen. give us a sense what you think. this is a high stakes meeting, their first in about a year. give us a sense as to some of the agenda there and both political and economic. >> yes, i think a meeting is very likely to happen on the side lines of a pec in san francisco in a few weeks. this would as you noted be their first meeting since last year in bali and indonesia. and i think a topic of conversation will be the bilateral relationship itself and in particular how to maintain stability in that relationship even as both sides take actions the other might not like. so, for example, the united states really recently updated its restrictions on china's access to semiconductors and the equipment used to manufacture them but has been emphasizing the importance of continuing to have dialogue even if beijing doesn't like those steps. wang yi was just in town, china's foreign minister, to discuss setting up that meeting. and on the agenda will be the middle east and how both parties can work together to prevent the conflict from spilling over. >> all right, thank you so much this morning for the insight. we appreciate it. still ahead here on "way too early," a look at this morning's business headlines with our friends at cnbc. we'll get the latest on the markets as stock futures are mixed this morning after the major averages did climb yesterday. 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[sfx: video game] emergen-c crystals. with the freestyle libre 2 system, know your glucose level and where it's headed. no fingersticks needed. manage your diabetes with more confidence. freestyle libre 2. try it for free at freestylelibre.us time now for business, and for that let's bring in cnbc's julianna tatelbaum who joins us live from london. julianna, great to see you this morning. the major averages remain on pace to end the month in the red. it is, indeed, the last day of october. how are the markets shaping up? are they particularly frightful this halloween? >> this morning they're a little tentative i would say more than frightful. u.s. futures are mixed on the final day of trade for the month of october, but october was one that i think may have spooked investors. u.s. major indices are on pace to closeout the month deep in the red. their first three-month losing streak since march 2020. we all know what happened back then. it's been a difficult period if you have been invested in the stock market. the s&p 500 did climb out of correction territory yesterday. it was the best trading day since august. there was one stock in focus yesterday to the down side. it was tesla. shares in tesla sunk as its battery partner issued a warning on ev demand. that stock took a hit yesterday. one to keep an eye on in trading today. >> so the biden administration says new export restrictions on the sale of high end computer chips will take effect immediately. how will that impact chip makers like say giant nvidia? >> nvidia is really at the heart of these restrictions. its high end chips, its advanced chips are the most advanced and widely deployed in the world. according to "the wall street journal" nvidia's had been intending to essentially get ahead of these new restrictions and make chip shipments for next year before these new restrictions came into effect. according to "the wall street journal" the u.s. government told them in a letter last week it would be effective immediately which could lead nvidia to cancel billions of dollars in orders next year of chips to china. >> ft food workers in california getting a significant raise next year. tell us about the details how this came about. >> so fast food workers in california are going to start making at least $20 an hour in april. and we've now heard from mcconlds and chipotle, and they said customers are going to have to pay more to offset the rise in labor costs as a result of the minimum wage rising. mcdonald's hasn't decided how much yet it will hike prices in california to compensate for this increase in wages. meanwhile, chipotle says it expect tuesday raise prices to a mid to high single percentage in the state but hasn't made a final decision. and we know given the inintermissionary pressures fast food chains have been facing, they've already been raising prices. this going to be a little more difficult and costly for customers but good news if you're a fast food workering in california. >> auto workers seem to be on the verge of ending the strike against the big three avoiding potentially economic calamity here in the united states. cnbc's julianna tatelbaum live from london, thank you as always. happy halloween. still ahead here on "way too early," president biden signs a new executive order on artificial intelligence. but with no national agreement in place will it have much of an impact on americans? that conversation when we come right back. americans? that conversation when we come right back introducing ned's plaque psoriasis. 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(vo) get iphone15 pro, apple tv 4k and 6 months of apple one. all three on us. only on verizon. c'mon, we're right there. c'mon baby. it's the only we need. go, go, go, go! ah! touchdown baby! -touchdown! are your neighbors watching the same game? yeah, my 5g home internet delays the game a bit. but you get used to it. try these. they're noise cancelling earmuffs. i stole them from an airport. it's always something with you, man. great! solid! -greek salad? exactly! don't delay the game with verizon or t-mobile 5g home internet. catch it on the xfinity 10g network. welcome back. president biden signed an executive order on artificial intelligence yesterday that will attempt to put in place new checks and balances on the rapidly emerging technology. the order requires a.i. companies to share settest results with the federal government that includes risks that their sysms could aid adversaries in hurting the united states. the order also seeks to create a national standard to ensure new a.i. tech is safe before 's released and issues new guidance on how to label a.i. generated media. in addition to the new order, vice president harris will travel to london later today for an international conference concerning a.i. she'll deliver a speech outlining the administration's vision for the future of the technology. joining us now to talk about it, founder of the social impact agency 1063, exlexia johnson. great to see you here at 30 rock. let's get your take here. this has been emerging technology faster than people could imagined. it's become the forefront of american global society. the tech companies weren't quickly consult would some of these regulations it seems, but what's your initial take on what the biden administration is trying to do? >> i think this is a huge step in the right direction, right? the biden administration from day one has actually been concerned by a.i. i talked to a lot of policy leaders in the biden administration but also in big tech companies, they think we have waited a little too long for policy, right, because a.i. is just moving so quickly. i think this is a huge step by the administration because there's concern for americans particularly around jobs, particularly around discrimination, particularly around deep fakes. there's so many concerns. for the biden administration to take this very seriously especially when congress hasn't put up any legislation, i think we are seeing where they are putting their energy, and it's really -- i would say that something that you're going to continue to see them try to double down and make sure they have proper regulations. >> do you have concerns about just the impact it may or may not have? because there's no global regulations yet. there's no agreement with other nations. >> right. you know, i'm glad you mentioned vice president harris will in london at the summit where the eu is also taking up positions around a.i. policy, australia is as well. the biden administration is also talking about what it means for immigration when it comes to making sure they have workers who understand a.i. and so i'm not fully concerned just yet. i want to see what happens when the vice president goes with the summit to see how collaborative a lot of these nations will be. >> so you're a long time democratic strategist. let's talk about the impact a.i. has on politics. this would be the first election a.i. is so visible, it's so present and potentially so dangerous. why don't you walk us through some of your concerns. >> one of my biggest concerns and we've already seen it particularly around donald trump, particularly when he was indicted. we've seen it when president biden announces re-election, people putting out a.i. generated content and trying to, you know, misinform voters making sure -- the policy and regulation wants to make sure that content has watermarks, make sure that people understand this could be potentially a deep fake. and so i'm actually concerned how rapidly a.i. is going and which people are seeing the information and the contt, but the biden administration is trying to get ahead of that. and the other piece of this, too, i think this is going to be somein voters are actually engaged around particularly like i said around jobs and particularly the tech industry and tech leaders supporting this working with the biden administration on this. so this is something that voters want, but the reality is we want to make sure voters are not misinformed by a.i. generated content, and i hope this is getting out of it. >> and lastly we're just over a year before election day. just give us your 30,000 foot look to a race right now which appears to be donald trump again being the republican nominee. polls suggest it would be base clea dead heat with president biden in a rematch from what we saw in 2020. give us your where you think right now the incumbent president's current strengths and weaknesses are. >> listen, i think his strengths are when he gets to the american people and talks about gun control, about abortion, and fixing the economy. those polling go head to head, but when we talk about the issues this administration is championing, those are issues a majority of americans believe in and want to make sure continue to move forward. and so as they continue on this re-election to talk to voters directly about the issues that they care about all the way from the economy to the climate, which the biden-harris administration is doing a really good job on, voters are going to move. but it is going to be pan uphill battle. it's not going to be easy but that is every single presidential politics. >> thank you so much for1063 we alencia johnson, we appreciate it. up next, a colorado trial could determine whether donald trump is even eligible to be on the presidential ballot. we'll explain that effort. then coming up on "morning joe," live reporting from israel as prime minister benjamin netanyahu is rejecting calls for a cease-fire as his military advances deeper into gaza. plus, the latest from capitol hill, where the senate will hold a hearing this morning on president biden's request for supplemental aid to both israel and ukraine. also ahead, republican presidential candidate chris christie will be live in studio. "morning joe" a few moments away with all that. welcome back. a trial that began in colorado this week could set a precedent op whether president trump's actions on january 6th are grounds to keep him off the 2024 ballot. the lawsuit argues that trump is not eligible to appear on the state's presidential ballot under the 14th amendment's insurrection clause, which bars anyone who swore under oath to defend the constitution and then, quote, engaged inrebellio holding office. the first day of testimony yesterday saw several police officers take the stand to recount their experience on january 6th. eric swalwell testified remotely on what lawmakers experienced that day. colorado is not the only state testing this civil war era theory. another site cites the 14th amend. beginning trials on thursday. similar trials are under way in new hampshire, arizona, and michigan. trump's legal team originally tried to have the colorado suit thrown out, but his campaign is fundraising now off of it. joining us now, nbc news senior national politics reporter jonathan allen. great to see you, john. let's talk about this lawsuit, not the legality of it, per se, but the political ramifications. i know there are some democrats who expressed weariness to me, that this idea is playing right into trump's hands. this is a little-known provision. it is unclear if it is even legal. trying to keep him off the ballot, sort of reinforces the idea that this whole thing, including his legal cases, are a deep state conspiracy to defeat him. what's your take? >> there are certainly democrats who believe that. there's split within the party. i think for most democrats, they'd like to be able to beat donald trump at the ballot box in 2024. setting aside just for a second, you know, that sort of -- that question of, you know, the politics of it and whether it helps trump, he is fundraising, as you point out, ever since he started being indicted, since these lawsuits about the 14th amendment started coming up. you know, he's been taking off within the republican primary. setting that aside for a moment, there are also a lot of democrats who believe that, unless he was actually convicted of engaging in a rebellion or insurrection, the 14th amendment clause should not be triggered. >> let's talk about the 2024 landscape, john. vice president pence bowed out this weekend. his campaign had financial issues. it's not stunning, perhaps, that he had to make this decision, though people didn't expect it in las vegas. talk to us about his path, about someone who so loyally served donald trump right until the end, until january 6th. he broke with trump then. he defended the constitution, and since then, he's made his campaign about explaining why he did so. what a fall from grace, that someone who was the vice president of the united states didn't even get close to making it to iowa. >> yeah. it made him a pariah within the republican party, to certify the election results of 2020, while donald trump was railing against them. there's obviously a small segment of the republican party -- when i say a small segment, i mean a small part of the republican party -- trump said, "that's my guy." he attempted to overturn the 2020 election. he stood in washington, d.c., and told people to march the capitol. between him and the set of republicans on some spectrum between that and thinking the 2020 election was decided fairly, mike pence ends up not even having the money or the support to get to iowa. >> speaking of iowa, we had a new "des moines register" poll out. buzz about nikki haley catching ron desantis, now tied for second in a state that desantis placd all his chips on. react to that. what i think is the takeaway here is trump is in a state where he's never been popular, has a 30-point plus lead. also, he is the second choice candidate for so many of the others. if desantis were to drop out, most of his supporters wouldn't go to haley but to trump. >> yeah, absolutely. it's about 40% of the desantis supporters end up going to trump if desantis were to drop out, which is the argument the desantis people are making. they're saying, if desantis drops out, trump wins. if haley drops out, much lower percentage of hers, i think 12%, would go to trump. most would go to desantis. that is a big argument for desantis in terms of trying to say he should be the nominee. of course, the thing that's working against him is that his trajectory has been nothing but downward since he got in. you've seen haley build slowly over time in a very upward, if slow, trajectory from being, you know, virtually unsupported to being tied for second in iowa. you see her having moved in new hampshire and, obviously, south carolina, her home state, a place where she would be expected to do well. >> john, we're about a week away from the next republican debate. trump, of course, skipping it again. tell us who you think, give us a candidate or two who you believe it's a make or break moment. >> i think it is a make or break moment for ron desantis right now, john. i mean, he has been losing altitude, not just in polling but also in terms of donors, some who stopped giving to him, some who started giving back to donald trump, as nbc recently reported. you know, i'm not saying he needs to have a breakout moment, but now you're going to see him match more closely against nikki haley. i expect to see the two of them go after each other a little bit. you know, they're jockeying for the position. if desantis doesn't come off better than haley for a third straight debate, you know, you could see him start to lose even more support. >> yeah. this has been happening in his home state of florida. joining us now, senior nbc news reporter jonathan allen, thank you for being with us. we appreciate it. thanks for getting up "way too early" on this tuesday morning. "morning joe" starts right now. i hope and pray that civilized nations everywhere will back this fight, because israel's fight is your fight. if hamas and iran's axis of evil